Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Doping mechanism in tetrahedral amorphous carbon

Doping in hydrogenated amorphous silicon occurs by a process of an ionised donor atom partially compensated by a charged dangling bond. The total energies of various dopant and dopant/bonding combinations are calculated for tetrahedral amorphous carbon. It is found that charged dangling bonds are less favoured because of the stronger Coulombic repulsion in ta-C. Instead the dopants can be compensated by weak bond states in the lower gap associated with odd-membered π-rings or odd-numbered π-chains. The effect is that the doping efficiency is low but there are not charged midgap recombination centres, to reduce photoconductivity or photoluminescence with doping, as occurs in a-Si:H.

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality of fish larvae in the subtropical northcentral Gulf of Mexico: implications for assessing recruitment success

Extensive plankton collections were taken during seven September cruises (1990–93) along the inner continental shelf of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Despite the high productivity and availability of food during these cruises, significant small-scale spatial variability was found in larval growth rates for both Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Carangidae) and vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens, Lutjanidae). The observed variability in larval growth rates was not correlated with changes in water temperature or associated with conspicuous hydrographic features and suggested the existence of less-recognizable regions where conditions for growth vary. Cruise estimates of mortality coefficients (Z) for larval Atlantic bumper (n=32,241 larvae from six cruises) and vermilion snapper (n= 2581 larvae from four cruises) ranged from 0.20 to 0.37 and 0.19 to 0.29, respectively. Even in a subtropical climate like the GOM, where larval-stage durations may be as short as two weeks, observed variability in growth rates, particularly when combined with small changes in mortality rates, can cause order-of-magnitude differences in cumulative larval survival. To what extent the observed differences in growth rates at small spatial scales are fine-scale “noise” that ultimately is smoothed by larger-scale processes is not known. Future research is needed to further characterize the small-scale variability in growth rates of larvae, particularly with regard to microzooplankton patchiness and the temporal and spatial pattern of potential predators. Small-scale spatial variability in larval growth rates may in fact be the norm, and understanding the implications of this subtle mosaic may help us to better evaluate our ability to partition the causes of recruitment variability.

Multi-Dimensional Deprivation in Ireland Among 9-Year-Olds in Ireland:An Analysis of the Growing Up in Ireland Survey’

In this paper we make use of the 9-year old wave of the Growing Up in Ireland study to analyse multidimensional deprivation in Ireland. The Alkire and Foster adjusted head count ratio approach (AHCR; 2007, 2011a, 2011b) applied here constitutes a significant improvement on union and intersection approaches and allows for the decomposition of multidimensional poverty in terms of dimensions and sub-groups. The approach involves a censoring of data such that deprivations count only for those above the specified multidimensional threshold leading to a stronger set of interrelationships between deprivation dimensions. Our analysis shows that the composition of the adjusted head ratio is influenced by a range of socio-economic factors. For less-favoured socio-economic groups dimensions relating to material deprivation are disproportionately represented while for the more advantaged groups, those relating to behavioral and emotional issues and social interaction play a greater role. Notwithstanding such variation in composition, our analysis showed that the AHCR varied systematically across categories of household type, and the social class, education and age group of the primary care giver. Furthermore, these variables combined in a cumulative manner. The most systematic variation was in relation to the head count of those above the multidimensional threshold rather than intensity, conditional on being above that cut-off point. Without seeking to arbitrate on the relative value of composite indices versus disaggregated profiles, our analysis demonstrates that there is much to be gained from adopting an approach with clearly understood axiomatic properties. Doing so allows one to evaluate the consequences of the measurement strategy employed for the understanding of levels of multidimensional deprivation, the nature of such deprivation profiles and socio-economic risk patterns. Ultimately it permits an informed assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the particular choices made.

Importance of surface carbide formation on the activity and selectivity of Pd surfaces in the selective hydrogenation of acetylene

A recent experimental investigation (Kim et al. J. Catal. 306 (2013) 146-154) on the selective hydrogenation of acetylene over Pd nanoparticles with different shapes concluded that Pd(100) showed higher activity and selectivity than Pd(111) for acetylene hydrogenation. However, our recent density functional calculations (Yang et al. J. Catal. 305 (2013) 264-276) observed that the clean Pd(111) surface should result in higher activity and ethylene selectivity compared with the clean Pd(100) surface for acetylene hydrogenation. In the current work, using density functional theory calculations, we find that Pd(100) in the carbide form gives rise to higher activity and selectivity than Pd(111) carbide. These results indicate that the catalyst surface is most likely in the carbide form under the experimental reaction conditions. Furthermore, the adsorption energies of hydrogen atoms as a function of the hydrogen coverage at the surface and subsurface sites over Pd(100) are compared with those over Pd(111), and it is found that the adsorption of hydrogen atoms is always less favoured on Pd(100) over the whole coverage range. This suggests that the Pd(100) hydride surface will be less stable than the Pd(111) hydride surface, which is also in accordance with the experimental results reported.

Migrações : novas realidades : viver num mundo em movimento

Supervisionada, Educação (Mestrado em Ensino de História e Geografia no 3º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e Ensino Secundário), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2014

Destabilizing Mutations Alter the Hydrogen Exchange Mechanism in Ribonuclease A

The effect of strongly destabilizing mutations, I106A and V108G of Ribonuclease A (RNase A), on its structure and stability has been determined by NMR. The solution structures of these variants are essentially equivalent to RNase A. The exchange rates of the most protected amide protons in RNase A (35ºC), the I106A variant (35ºC), and the V108G variant (10ºC) yield stability values of 9.9, 6.0, and 6.8 kcal/mol, respectively, when analyzed assuming an EX2 exchange mechanism. Thus, the destabilization induced by these mutations is propagated throughout the protein. Simulation of RNase A hydrogen exchange indicates that the most protected protons in RNase A and the V108G variant exchange via the EX2 regime, whereas those of I106A exchange through a mixed EX1 1 EX2 process. It is striking that a single point mutation can alter the overall exchange mechanism. Thus, destabilizing mutations joins high temperatures, high pH and the presence of denaturating agents as a factor that induces EX1 exchange in proteins. The calculations also indicate a shift from the EX2 to the EX1 mechanism for less protected groups within the same protein. This should be borne in mind when interpreting exchange data as a measure of local stability in less protected regions

The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

The surface structure of BaO on Pt(111): (2x2)-reconstructed BaO(111)

The surface structure of BaO(111) has been determined using STM and computer modelling. The BaO(111) surface was prepared in thin film form on Pt(111) and presents a surface with twice the lattice parameter expected for that of the bulk termination, i.e. a (2 x 2) reconstruction. Computer modelling indicates that the bulk termination is unstable, but that the (2 x 2) reconstructed BaO(111) surface has a low surface energy and is hence a stable surface reconstruction. The (2 x 2) reconstruction consists of small, three-sided pyramids with (100) oriented sides and either oxygen or barium ions at the apices. Less regular surface reconstructions containing the same pyramids are almost equally stable, indicating that we may also expect less regular regions to appear with a fairly random distribution of these surface species. The simulations further suggest that a regular (4 x 4) reconstruction built up of bigger pyramids is even more energetically favourable, and some evidence is found for such a structure in the STM. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A DFT study of propylene polymerization using neutral salicyladiminato nickel(II) and palladium(II) as catalysts

Propylene polymerization using salicyladiminato metal catalalysts has been studied using density functional theory at the B3LYP/LANL2DZ level. In particular, the effects on the reaction mechanisms of changing the metal from Pd(II) to Ni(II) have been investigated. While the reaction mechanisms involving the salicyladiminato Ni(II) catalyst have been found to be similar to those established previously for the salicyladiminato Pd(II) catalyst, the nickel catalyst was found to differentiate the trans-O intermediate from the trans-.N intermediate with an energy difference of 46.63 U mol(-1) significantly more than the palladium catalyst for which the energy difference was calculated as 35.82 kJ mol(-1). The energy difference between the trans-O configuration and the trans-N configuration is decreased significantly when combining a molecule of propylene with the catalyst. For the Ni catalyst, the trans-O isomer is more stable than the trans-N isomer to a greater extent than for Pd, so that the insertion of propylene from 20 is relatively less favoured for Ni than for Pd. It is predicted that the mechanism of isomerization from 20 to 2N through a rotational transition state TS2O2N is more appropriate for the Ni catalyst system. The palladium system shows a larger preference for pi-coordination than its nickel counterpart, although the latter possesses a lower reaction barrier. It was found that the occupation of the trans-O position in the asymmetric salicyladiminato catalyst is also more favored by the alkene as it is by the alkyl so that insertion of the alkene may always start from a particular configuration so that specific products are obtained. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cluster analysis for multivariable process control

This paper describes the novel use of cluster analysis in the field of industrial process control. The severe multivariable process problems encountered in manufacturing have often led to machine shutdowns, where the need for corrective actions arises in order to resume operation. Production faults which are caused by processes running in less efficient regions may be prevented or diagnosed using a reasoning based on cluster analysis. Indeed the intemal complexity of a production machinery may be depicted in clusters of multidimensional data points which characterise the manufacturing process. The application of a Mean-Tracking cluster algorithm (developed in Reading) to field data acquired from a high-speed machinery will be discussed. The objective of such an application is to illustrate how machine behaviour can be studied, in particular how regions of erroneous and stable running behaviour can be identified.

Coverage-dependent structural evolution in the interaction of NO2 with Au{111}

We have used low-temperature STM, together with DFT calculations incorporating the effects of dispersion forces, to study from a structural point of view the interaction of NO2 with Au{111} surfaces. NO2 adsorbs molecularly on Au{111} at 80 K, initially as small, disordered clusters at the elbows of the type-x reconstruction lines of the clean-surface herringbone reconstruction, and then as larger, ordered islands on the fcc regions. Within the islands, the NO2 molecules define a (√3 × 2)rect. superlattice, for which we evaluate structural models. By around 0.25 ML coverage, the herringbone reconstruction has been lifted, accompanied by the formation of Au nanoclusters, and the islands have coalesced. At this stage, essentially the whole surface is covered with an overlayer consisting predominantly of domains of the (√3 × 2)rect. structure, but also containing less wellordered regions. With further exposure, the degree of disorder in the overlayer increases; saturation occurs close to 0.43 ML.

Not all adolescents are sleep deprived: A study of rural populations

The objective of this study was to investigate the role of environmental factors in sleep duration among adolescents living in rural areas. A total of 1140 students (569 males), aged 10-19 years, and attending two schools in rural regions in southern Brazil, completed a questionnaire about their sleep habits. Demographic data were also obtained. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated for the cases of more than 9 h of sleep on weekdays. Sleep duration in adolescents with and without electric lighting at home was analyzed. Average sleep duration at night was 9.63 (1.64) h on school-going days and 10.14 (2.42) h on weekends. The prevalence of adolescents sleeping for more than 9 h at night on school-going days was 58.3%. Older adolescents showed a tendency to delay their sleep onset times, which is associated with a reduction of sleep duration. Adolescents without electric lighting at home slept longer on school-going days (P < 0.001) and on weekends (P = 0.013) when compared to those with electric lighting at home. From multivariate analysis, age (P < 0.001), school schedule (P = 0.007) and work (0.042) were factors affecting sleep duration. In contrast to the data previously reported for urban populations, we found a high prevalence of adolescents sleeping for more than 9 h on school nights. Data on populations living in less industrialized regions reinforce the idea that technological advances are associated with the negative impact of sleep phase delay in adolescents.

Desenvolvimento econômico e mercado de trabalho urbano no nordeste brasileiro

A história recente do Nordeste caracteriza-se por uma primeira fase de isolamento e outra de articulação. Nessa segunda fase, o dinamismo que se instala a partir da década de sessenta provocou profundas transformações na economia da região. Essas transformações implicaram em elevadas taxas de expansão do produto regional, alterações na estrutura produtiva através da adoção de novos processos de trabalho que implicou de um lado, na redução da demanda por trabalho e de outro, na sua expansão. Registrou-se, também, mudanças bastante significativas nos gêneros industriais reduzindo a participação na produção das indústrias de bens de consumo não-duráveis e aumentando de modo importante a participação das indústrias de bens intermediários voltadas para o mercado nacional e internacional, o que contribui para aumentar a dependência do Nordeste em relação as regiões mais ricas. As mudanças iniciadas no setor industrial se propagam para os setores primários, secundários e terciários. No setor agrícola, as transformações dificultaram a sobrevivência do trabalhador, ampliaram as relações capitalistas no setor manifestas na maior proletarização da mão-de-obra rural; estimularam as emigrações para. as cidades e elevaram consideravelmente a participação da população ocupada em atividades predominantemente urbanas. No setor terciário, as mudanças provocaram o incremento do subemprego, grande diferenciação nos 11 níveis de produtividade e rendimentos, gerando um quadro de aprofundamento da heterogeneidadeda estrutura produtiva e do mercado de trabalho. Adicionalmente, houve uma excessiva urbanização, aumento da concentração da renda, incremento do grau de informalidade, crescimento do número de empregados clandestinos e maior participação dos menores e adultos no mercado de trabalho. Tudo isso, ocorreu,associado ao quadro de dinamismo das atividades produtivas, sem paralelo na história recente das regiões atrasadas do pais. A análise dos dados também mostrou que o nível do desemprego aberto, é relativamente baixo tanto para os homens como para as mulheres. Isto ocorre porque na expansão ou na retração econômica as flutuações no nível de ocupação são acampanhadas por modificações da taxa de participação da PIA no mercado de trabalho. Portanto, a recente infonnalidade, fonnalidade e submersão da mão-de-obra no Nordeste estão associadas a um contexto de crescimento da economia e, por conseguinte, resultam do estilo ou padrão de acumulação de capital que, mesmo se realizando com altas taxas de expansão, não repercute positivamente no mercado de trabalho, nos tennos requeridos pela oferta de mão-de-obra. Assim, o aparecimento de um excedente relativo de população é resultado do padrão de acumulação da capital da economia regional, que está associado ao modo como o Nordeste se inseriu no contexto nacional e, nesse sentido, é o padrão de industrialização o principal fator responsável por parte importante do insucesso da economia local em absorver produtivamente a população que se apresenta no mercado de trabalho urbano

Correlação entre a infecção genital pelo vírus do papiloma humano, a resposta imune e os achados colpocitológicos em mulheres grávidas e não grávidas

The genital HPV infection is very common between men and women worldwide, affecting particularly young women, constituting a serious public health problem in less developed regions, favored by the poor living conditions of population. The cytology and colposcopy have notorious importance in the diagnosis of precursor lesions of cervical cancer and therefore its prevention. However, even with such diagnostic tools, the number of women who develop cervical cancer is still high. This study aims to assess the prevalence of genital tract infection by HPV in pregnant and nonpregnant women, evaluating the profile of the immune response presented by the women of these two groups in order to establish correlations among profile of immune response, presence of virus and occurrence of lesions of the uterine cervix. We analyzed specimens obtained from the cervix of 221 patients, 91 pregnant and 130 non-pregnant, aged 14-72 years. The women were subjected to colposcopic and cytologic evaluation detect possible changes in the cervix and then samples were collected in order to perform HPV detection by PCR and real-time PCR for detection of mRNA of pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines. In the present study, the overall prevalence of HPV genital infection was 28.1%; of which 31.9% were pregnant patients and 25.4% in non-pregnant women. Young women under 30 years and those with low educational level education showed a higher risk of HPV infection. Colposcopy showed better correlation with detection of HPV DNA by PCR, when compared to cytology. Generally, HPV infected patients, pregnant or not, exhibited reduced mRNA expression of both pro-inflammatory (IFN-γ, TNF-α) and anti-inflammatory (IL -10) cytokines, when compared to patients not infected by HPV. Nonpregnant patients infected presented increase mRNA expression of IL-17 in patients without injury, whereas those with lesion showed higher mRNA expression of TGF-β. Pregnant women without injury infected exhibited increased mRNA expression of TGF-β. There was no difference in HPV prevalence between pregnant and nonpregnant women. There was a reduction of pro-inflammatory cytokines, except IL-17, in all women infected by HPV. Moreover, we observed an increase of TGF-β in HPV-infected women who are pregnant or not. The results suggest that, in women in this study, HPV infection promoted changes in the profile of cytokines necessary for activation of effective immune response, possibly favoring viral persistence