Estimating Resource Requirements to Staff a Response to a Medium to Large Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Australia

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

Additively manufactured device for dynamic culture of large arrays of 3D tissue engineered constructs

The ability to test large arrays of cell and biomaterial combinations in 3D environments is still rather limited in the context of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. This limitation can be generally addressed by employing highly automated and reproducible methodologies. This study reports on the development of a highly versatile and upscalable method based on additive manufacturing for the fabrication of arrays of scaffolds, which are enclosed into individualized perfusion chambers. Devices containing eight scaffolds and their corresponding bioreactor chambers are simultaneously fabricated utilizing a dual extrusion additive manufacturing system. To demonstrate the versatility of the concept, the scaffolds, while enclosed into the device, are subsequently surface-coated with a biomimetic calcium phosphate layer by perfusion with simulated body fluid solution. 96 scaffolds are simultaneously seeded and cultured with human osteoblasts under highly controlled bidirectional perfusion dynamic conditions over 4 weeks. Both coated and noncoated resulting scaffolds show homogeneous cell distribution and high cell viability throughout the 4 weeks culture period and CaP-coated scaffolds result in a significantly increased cell number. The methodology developed in this work exemplifies the applicability of additive manufacturing as a tool for further automation of studies in the field of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.

A semi-analytical solution for multilayer diffusion in a composite medium consisting of a large number of layers

Diffusion in a composite slab consisting of a large number of layers provides an ideal prototype problem for developing and analysing two-scale modelling approaches for heterogeneous media. Numerous analytical techniques have been proposed for solving the transient diffusion equation in a one-dimensional composite slab consisting of an arbitrary number of layers. Most of these approaches, however, require the solution of a complex transcendental equation arising from a matrix determinant for the eigenvalues that is difficult to solve numerically for a large number of layers. To overcome this issue, in this paper, we present a semi-analytical method based on the Laplace transform and an orthogonal eigenfunction expansion. The proposed approach uses eigenvalues local to each layer that can be obtained either explicitly, or by solving simple transcendental equations. The semi-analytical solution is applicable to both perfect and imperfect contact at the interfaces between adjacent layers and either Dirichlet, Neumann or Robin boundary conditions at the ends of the slab. The solution approach is verified for several test cases and is shown to work well for a large number of layers. The work is concluded with an application to macroscopic modelling where the solution of a fine-scale multilayered medium consisting of two hundred layers is compared against an “up-scaled” variant of the same problem involving only ten layers.

Large deflections of rectangular plates

Approximate solutions for the non-linear bending of thin rectangular plates are presented considering large deflections for various boundary conditions. In the case of stress-free edges, solutions are given for von Kármán's equations in terms of the stress function and the deflection of the plate. In the case of immovable edges, equations are constructed in terms of the three displacements and these are solved. The solution is given by using double series consisting of the appropriate Beam Functions which satisfy the boundary conditions. The differential equations are satisfied by using the orthogonality properties of the series. Numerical results for square plates with uniform lateral load indicate good convergence of the series solution presented here.

Observation of a large coupling of a bound dihydrogen ligand to phosphorus ligands in trans-[(dppe)(2)Ru(eta(2)-H-2) (PF(OMe)(2))][BF4](2) complex

A new dicationic dihydrogen complex of the type trans-[(dppe)(2)Ru(eta (2)-H-2)(PF(OMe)(2))]BF4](2) has been prepared and characterized. A large coupling of about 50 Hz between the H-2 and trans-phosphorus ligand in this complex has been observed.

Design of speaker identification schemes for large number of speakers (A)

Design of speaker identification schemes for a small number of speakers (around 10) with a high degree of accuracy in controlled environment is a practical proposition today. When the number of speakers is large (say 50–100), many of these schemes cannot be directly extended, as both recognition error and computation time increase monotonically with population size. The feature selection problem is also complex for such schemes. Though there were earlier attempts to rank order features based on statistical distance measures, it has been observed only recently that the best two independent measurements are not the same as the combination in two's for pattern classification. We propose here a systematic approach to the problem using the decision tree or hierarchical classifier with the following objectives: (1) Design of optimal policy at each node of the tree given the tree structure i.e., the tree skeleton and the features to be used at each node. (2) Determination of the optimal feature measurement and decision policy given only the tree skeleton. Applicability of optimization procedures such as dynamic programming in the design of such trees is studied. The experimental results deal with the design of a 50 speaker identification scheme based on this approach.

Identification of a core promoter and a novel isoform of the human TSCI gene transcript and structural comparison with mouse homolog

Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is an autosomal dominant disorder with loci on chromosome 9q34.12 (TSC1) and chromosome 16p13.3 (TSC2). Genes for both loci have been isolated and characterized. The promoters of both genes have not been characterized so far and little is known about the regulation of these genes. This study reports the characterization of the human TSC1 promoter region for the first time. We have identified a novel alternative isoform in the 5' untranslated region (UTR) of the TSC1 gene transcript involving exon 1. Alternative isoforms in the 5' UTR of the mouse Tsc1 gene transcript involving exon I and exon 2 have also been identified. We have identified three upstream open reading frames (uORFs) in the 5' UTR of the TSC1/Tsc1 gene. A comparative study of the 5' UTR of TSC1/Tsc1 gene has revealed that there is a high degree of similarity not only in the sequence but also in the splicing pattern of both human and mouse TSC1 genes. We have used PCR methodology to isolate approximately 1.6 kb genomic DNA 5' to the TSC1 cDNA. This sequence has directed a high level of expression of luciferase activity in both HeLa and HepG2 cells. Successive 5' and 3' deletion analysis has suggested that a -587 bp region, from position +77 to -510 from the transcription start site (TSS), contains the promoter activity. Interestingly, this region contains no consensus TATA box or CAAT box. However, a 521-bp fragment surrounding the TSS exhibits the characteristics of a CpG island which overlaps with the promoter region. The identification of the TSC1 promoter region will help in designing a suitable strategy to identify mutations in this region in patients who do not show any mutations in the coding regions. It will also help to study the regulation of the TSC1 gene and its role in tumorigenesis. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large reduction of leakage current by graded-layer La doping in (Ba0.5, Sr0.5)TiO3 thin films

A large reduction in the leakage current behavior in (Ba, Sr)TiO3 (BST) thin films was observed by graded-layer donor doping. The graded doping was achieved by introducing La-doped BST layers in the grown BST films. The films showed a large decrease (about six orders of magnitude) in the leakage current in comparison to undoped films at an electric field of 100 kV/cm. The large decrease in leakage current was attributed to the formation of highly resistive layers, originating from compensating defect chemistry involved for La-doped films grown in oxidizing environment. Temperature-dependent leakage-current behavior was studied to investigate the conduction mechanism and explanations of the results were sought from Poole–Frenkel conduction mechanism.

REPERTOIRE OF PROTEIN KINASES ENCODED IN THE GENOME OF ZEBRAFISH SHOWS REMARKABLY LARGE POPULATION OF PIM KINASES

In recent times, zebrafish has garnered lot of popularity as model organism to study human cancers. Despite high evolutionary divergence from humans, zebrafish develops almost all types of human tumors when induced. However, mechanistic details of tumor formation have remained largely unknown. Present study is aimed at analysis of repertoire of kinases in zebrafish proteome to provide insights into various cellular components. Annotation using highly sensitive remote homology detection methods revealed ``substantial expansion'' of Ser/Thr/Tyr kinase family in zebrafish compared to humans, constituting over 3% of proteome. Subsequent classification of kinases into subfamilies revealed presence of large number of CAMK group of kinases, with massive representation of PIM kinases, important for cell cycle regulation and growth. Extensive sequence comparison between human and zebrafish PIM kinases revealed high conservation of functionally important residues with a few organism specific variations. There are about 300 PIM kinases in zebrafish kinome, while human genome codes for only about 500 kinases altogether. PIM kinases have been implicated in various human cancers and are currently being targeted to explore their therapeutic potentials. Hence, in depth analysis of PIM kinases in zebrafish has opened up new avenues of research to verify the model organism status of zebrafish.

Micromechanics of elastic solids weakened by a large number of cracks

This paper presents a micromechanics analysis of the elastic solids weakened by a large number of microcracks in a plane problem. A new cell model is proposed. Each cell is an ellipse subregion and contains a microcrack. The effective moduli and the stress intensity factors for an ellipse cell are obtained. The analytic closed formulas of concentration factor tensor for an isotropic matrix containing an anisotropic inclusion are derived. Based on a self-consistent method, the effective elastic moduli of the solids weakened by randomly oriented microcracks are obtained.

Mathematical models for the prediction of temperature distributions resulting from the discharge of heated water into large bodies of water

Mathematical models for heated water outfalls were developed for three flow regions. Near the source, the subsurface discharge into a stratified ambient water issuing from a row of buoyant jets was solved with the jet interference included in the analysis. The analysis of the flow zone close to and at intermediate distances from a surface buoyant jet was developed for the two-dimensional and axisymmetric cases. Far away from the source, a passive dispersion model was solved for a two dimensional situation taking into consideration the effects of shear current and vertical changes in diffusivity. A significant result from the surface buoyant jet analysis is the ability to predict the onset and location of an internal hydraulic jump. Prediction can be made simply from the knowledge of the source Froude number and a dimensionless surface exchange coefficient. Parametric computer programs of the above models are also developed as a part of this study. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 14-12-570 under the sponsorship of the Federal Water Quality Administration.