Numerical and semi-analytical models of sliding masses: application to the 1783 Scilla tsunamigenic landslide

The Scilla rock avalanche occurred on 6 February 1783 along the coast of the Calabria region (southern Italy), close to the Messina Strait. It was triggered by a mainshock of the Terremoto delle Calabrie seismic sequence, and it induced a tsunami wave responsible for more than 1500 casualties along the neighboring Marina Grande beach. The main goal of this work is the application of semi-analtycal and numerical models to simulate this event. The first one is a MATLAB code expressly created for this work that solves the equations of motion for sliding particles on a two-dimensional surface through a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The second one is a code developed by the Tsunami Research Team of the Department of Physics and Astronomy (DIFA) of the Bologna University that describes a slide as a chain of blocks able to interact while sliding down over a slope and adopts a Lagrangian point of view. A wide description of landslide phenomena and in particular of landslides induced by earthquakes and with tsunamigenic potential is proposed in the first part of the work. Subsequently, the physical and mathematical background is presented; in particular, a detailed study on derivatives discratization is provided. Later on, a description of the dynamics of a point-mass sliding on a surface is proposed together with several applications of numerical and analytical models over ideal topographies. In the last part, the dynamics of points sliding on a surface and interacting with each other is proposed. Similarly, different application on an ideal topography are shown. Finally, the applications on the 1783 Scilla event are shown and discussed.

LARGE SCALE LANDSLIDE ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER, MICHIGAN

In 2003, a large landslide occurred along the Ontonagon River, located in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and adjacent to US-45 in Ontonagon County. The failure took place during the springtime, when the river reached a peak discharge that was the second highest on record. The volume of the slide has been estimated to be approximately 1,400,000 cubic yards. The colluvium blocked the river, forcing a new channel to be carved around the debris. The landslide consisted of a silt layer at its base, overlain by a coarsening upward sand sequence, and finally a varved glacio-lacustrine clay with sparse dropstone inclusions making up the upper section of hillside.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

A STUDY OF A LANDSLIDE IN BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA

In 1988 a landslide occurred at a construction site in Birmingham, Alabama in which a portion of the construction site required excavating a rock slope with a group of apartments that were located at the top of the slope. During construction, two separate landslides occurred causing one and half of the apartment buildings to collapse downslope. The slope failure was investigated by two firms. One firm investigated the site conditions and the second firm investigated the design of the cut slope. The main concerns in the investigation were (1) the lack of consideration for the existing joint system, (2) using averaged the strength parameters, (3) the possibility of damaging the slope with blasting, and (4) the potential that there were underground mines at the site. The Rocscience program RocPlane was used to model the in situ conditions and the excavation. The model showed that the joint system’s pore water pressure was most likely the main factor in the failure.

Index-Oriented Methodologies for Landslide Consequence Analysis: An Application to a Mountain Community in the French Alps

Consequence analysis is a key aspect of anchoring assessment of landslide impacts to present and long-term development planning. Although several approaches have been developed over the last decade, some of them are difficult to apply in practice, mainly because of the lack of valuable data on historical damages or on damage functions. In this paper, two possible consequence indicators based on a combination of descriptors of the exposure of the elements at risk are proposed in order to map the potential impacts of landslides and highlight the most vulnerable areas. The first index maps the physical vulnerability due to landslide; the second index maps both direct damage (physical, structural, functional) and indirect damage (socio-economic impacts) of landslide hazards. The indexes have been computed for the 200 km2 area of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), and their potential applications are discussed.

36Cl production rate from K-spallation in the European Alps (Chironico landslide, Switzerland)

The abundant production of in situ cosmogenic 36Cl from potassium renders 36Cl measurements in K-rich rocks or minerals, such as K-feldspars, potentially useful for precisely dating rock surfaces, either in single-nuclide or in multi-nuclide studies, for example combined with 10Be measurements in quartz. However, significant discrepancies in experimentally calibrated 36Cl production rates from spallation of potassium (36PK-sp), referenced to sea-level/high-latitude (SLHL), limit the accuracy of 36Cl dating from K-rich lithologies. We present a new 36Cl calibration using K-feldspars, in which K-spallation is the most dominant 36Cl production pathway (>92% of total 36Cl), thus minimizing uncertainties from the complex multi-pathway 36Cl production systematics. The samples are derived from boulders of an ∼13.4 ka-old landslide in the Swiss Alps (∼820 m, 46.43°N, 8.85°E). We obtain a local 36PK-sp of 306 ± 16 atoms 36Cl (g K)−1 a−1 and an SLHL 36PK-sp of 145.5 ± 7.7 atoms 36Cl (g K)−1 a−1, when scaled with a standard scaling protocol (‘Lm’). Applying this SLHL 36PK-sp to determine 36Cl exposure ages of K-feldspars from 10Be-dated moraine boulders yields excellent agreement, confirming the validity of the new SLHL 36PK-sp for surface exposure studies, involving 36Cl in K-feldspars, in the Alps.

Paleolimnological evidence for increased landslide activity due to forest clearing and land-use since 3600 cal BP in the western Swiss Alps

Schwarzsee is located in the western Swiss Alps, in a region that has been affected by numerous landslides during the Holocene, as evidenced by geological surveys. Lacustrine sediments were cored to a depth of 13 m. The vegetation history of the lake's catchment was reconstructed and investigated to identify possible impacts on slope stability. The pollen analyses record development of forest cover during the middle and late Holocene, and provide strong evidence for regional anthropogenic influence such as forest clearing and agricultural activity. Vegetation change is characterized by continuous landscape denudation that begins at ca. 4300 cal. yrs BP, with five distinct pulses of increased deforestation, at 3650, 2700, 1500, 900, and 450 cal. yrs BP. Each pulse can be attributed to increased human impact, recorded by the appearance or increase of specific anthropogenic indicator plant taxa. These periods of intensified deforestation also appear to be correlated with increased landslide activity in the lake's catchment and increased turbidite frequency in the sediment record. Therefore, this study gives new evidence for a strong influence of vegetation changes on slope stability during the middle and late Holocene in the western Swiss Alps, and may be used as a case study for anthropogenically induced landslide activity.

The 2015 Swiss elections: A landslide win for the right, despite limited changes in vote share

Switzerland held federal elections on 18 October, with the conservative Swiss People’s Party winning the largest share of the votes. Daniel Bochsler, Marlène Gerber and David Zumbach write that while the increase in vote share for the Swiss People’s Party was relatively limited, the party managed to significantly increase the number of seats it holds in Switzerland’s lower house of parliament, the National Council. Nevertheless, the party is unlikely to make substantial gains in the country’s upper house, the Senate, as it traditionally struggles under the two-round electoral system used in Senate elections.

Prevention of one landslide in the Motorway A-231 in Spain

The present article exposes a series of measures to avoid the slide of the terraces of the highway A-231 in the province of Palencia in Spain.

Landslide risk in Haiti and land management in Port au Prince

This thesis aims to identify landslide risk zones in Haiti as a whole (regional scale) and Port au Prince specifically (local scale) and to evaluate how this landslide risk can affect them, especially to Port au Prince, in order to elaborate recommendations in priority zones of the city. Landslide risk priority zones are marked in order to apply land management recommendations supported in the Haitian land tenure to reduce, mitigate or delete at maximum the possible damages that these zones can suffer in the future due to landslides. These recommendations are collected in order to stakeholders decide which of them are the best options for each priority zone. Different types of maps are generated in order to locate all landslide risk zones and priority zones.

Changes in spatial point patterns of pioneer woody plants across a large tropical landslide

We assessed whether the relative importance of positive and negative interactions in early successional communities varied across a large landslide on Casita Volcano (Nicaragua). We tested several hypotheses concerning the signatures of these processes in the spatial patterns of woody pioneer plants, as well as those of mortality and recruitment events, in several zones of the landslide differing in substrate stability and fertility, over a period of two years (2001 and 2002). We identified all woody individuals with a diameter >1 cm and mapped them in 28 plots measuring 10 × 10-m. On these maps, we performed a spatial point pattern analysis using univariate and bivariate pair-correlation functions; g (r) and g12 (r), and pairwise differences of univariate and bivariate functions. Spatial signatures of positive and negative interactions among woody plants were more prevalent in the most and least stressful zones of the landslide, respectively. Natural and human-induced disturbances such as the occurrence of fire, removal of newly colonizing plants through erosion and clearcutting of pioneer trees were also identified as potentially important pattern-creating processes. These results are in agreement with the stress-gradient hypothesis, which states that the relative importance of facilitation and competition varies inversely across gradients of abiotic stress. Our findings also indicate that the assembly of early successional plant communities in large heterogeneous landslides might be driven by a much larger array of processes than previously thought.

Depth Averaged Models for Fast Landslide Propagation: Mathematical, Rheological and Numerical Aspects

This paper presents an overview of depth averaged modelling of fast catastrophic landslides where coupling of solid skeleton and pore fluid (air and water) is important. The first goal is to show how Biot-Zienkiewicz models can be applied to develop depth integrated, coupled models. The second objective of the paper is to consider a link which can be established between rheological and constitutive models. Perzyna´s viscoplasticity can be considered a general framework within which rheological models such as Bingham and cohesive frictional fluids can be derived. Among the several alternative numerical models, we will focus here on SPH which has not been widely applied by engineers to model landslide propagation. We propose an improvement, based on combining Finite Difference meshes associated to SPH nodes to describe pore pressure evolution inside the landslide mass. We devote a Section to analyze the performance of the models, considering three sets of tests and examples which allows to assess the model performance and limitations: (i) Problems having an analytical solution, (ii) Small scale laboratory tests, and (iii) Real cases for which we have had access to reliable information