Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims.

Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model*

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant -0.49 K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to -2.2 K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of -0.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately. Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e., nonadditive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarize the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners to better minimize risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Cellular automata-based spatial dynamic modeling for analyzing urban land use change

This paper analyzes land use change in Rio Claro City and its surroundings, located in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo, in the period from 1988 to 1995, using air-borne digital imagery and a cellular automata model. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl, resulting from both the densification of residential areas implemented in previous years and the economic recession that led to an internal financial crisis in Brazil during the early 1990s. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. © 2013 IEEE.

Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land use change to perennial energy crops in Northern Italy: Effects on soil organic carbon sequestration and distribution, soil enzyme activities and microbial communities.

Studies on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in perennial energy crops are available for North-Central Europe, while there is insufficient information for Southern Europe. This research was conducted in the Po Valley, a Mediterranean-temperate zone characterised by low SOC levels, due to intensive management. The aim was to assess the factors influencing SOC sequestration and its distribution through depth and within soil fractions, after a 9-year old conversion from two annual systems to Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) and giant reed (Arundo donax). The 13C natural abundance was used to evaluate the amount of SOC in annual and perennial species, and determine the percentage of carbon derived from perennial crops. SOC was significantly higher under perennial species, especially in the topsoil (0-0.15 m). After 9 years, the amount of C derived from Miscanthus was 18.7 Mg ha-1, mostly stored at 0-0.15 m, whereas the amount of C derived from giant reed was 34.7 Mg ha-1, evenly distributed through layers. Physical soil fractionation was combined with 13C abundance analysis. C derived from perennial crops was mainly found in macroaggregates. Under giant reed, more newly derived-carbon was stored in microaggregates and mineral fraction than under Miscanthus. A molecular approach based on denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) allowed to evaluate changes on microbial community, after the introduction of perennial crops. Functional aspects were investigated by determining relevant soil enzymes (β-glucosidase, urease, alkaline phosphatase). Perennial crops positively stimulated these enzymes, especially in the topsoil. DGGE profiles revealed that community richness was higher in perennial crops; Shannon index of diversity was influenced only by depth. In conclusion, Miscanthus and giant reed represent a sustainable choice for the recovery of soils exhausted by intensive management, also in Mediterranean conditions and this is relevant mainly because this geographical area is notoriously characterised by a rapid turnover of SOC.

How do subordinate and dominant species in semi-natural mountain grasslands relate to productivity and land-use change?

Changes in agricultural practices of semi-natural mountain grasslands are expected to modify plant community structure and shift dominance patterns. Using vegetation surveys of 11 sites in semi-natural grasslands of the Swiss Jura and Swiss and French Alps, we determined the relative contribution of dominant, subordinate and transient plant species in grazed and abandoned communities and observed their changes along a gradient of productivity and in response to abandonment of pasturing. The results confirm the humpbacked diversity–productivity relationship in semi-natural grassland, which is due to the increase of subordinate species number at intermediate productivity levels. Grazed communities, at the lower or higher end of the species diversity gradient, suffered higher species loss after grazing abandonment. Species loss after abandonment of pasturing was mainly due to a higher reduction in the number of subordinate species, as a consequence of the increasing proportion of dominant species. When plant biodiversity maintenance is the aim, our results have direct implications for the way grasslands should be managed. Indeed, while intensification and abandonment have been accelerated since few decades, our findings in this multi-site analysis confirm the importance of maintaining intermediate levels of pasturing to preserve biodiversity.

Land use change and nitrogen feedbacks constrain the trajectory of the land carbon sink

Our understanding of Earth's carbon climate system depends critically upon interactions between rising atmospheric CO2, changing land use, and nitrogen limitation on vegetation growth. Using a global land model, we show how these factors interact locally to generate the global land carbon sink over the past 200 years. Nitrogen constraints were alleviated by N2 fixation in the tropics and by atmospheric nitrogen deposition in extratropical regions. Nonlinear interactions between land use change and land carbon and nitrogen cycling originated from three major mechanisms: (i) a sink foregone that would have occurred without land use conversion; (ii) an accelerated response of secondary vegetation to CO2 and nitrogen, and (iii) a compounded clearance loss from deforestation. Over time, these nonlinear effects have become increasingly important and reduce the present-day net carbon sink by ~40% or 0.4 PgC yr−1.

Significance of telecoupling for exploration of land-use change

Land systems are increasingly influenced by distal connections: the externalities and unintended consequences of social and ecological processes which occur in distant locations, and the feedback mechanisms that lead to new institutional developments and governance arrangements. Economic globalization and urbanization accentuate these novel telecoupling relationships. The prevalence of telecoupling in land systems demands new approaches to research and analysis in land science. This chapter presents a working definition of a telecoupled system, emphasizing the role of governance and institutional change in telecoupled interactions. The social, institutional, and ecological processes and conditions through which telecoupling emerges are described. The analysis of these relationships in land science demands both integrative and diverse epistemological perspectives and methods. Such analyses require a focus on how the motivations and values of social actors relate to telecoupling processes, as well as on the mechanisms that produce unanticipated outcomes and feedback relationships among distal land systems.

Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest

Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross LUC) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross LUC. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27–151 GtC for the next 95 yr following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reproduces results based on LUH data with full transition information within <0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other LU scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2, contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.

Whole system approaches for managing land-use change to deliver multiple benefits from biodiversity in tropical forest landcapes

Presentamos en una sesión dedicada al proyecto ROBIN: Session No. 101: Whole system approaches for managing land-use change to deliver multiple benefits from biodiversity in tropical forest landcapes (Chairs: Terry Parr, Michael Schmidt, Kirsten Thonicke - Theme 3)

High-resolution spatial modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to energy crops in the United Kingdom

Funded by Energy Technologies Institute EPSRC-Supergen. Grant Number: EP/M013200/1