The use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model for selecting the fire origin room

Over the last three decades, the fire safety codes have been changing from a prescriptive approach to a performance-based one. Some countries, such as the USA, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia and the UK, are in an advanced stage of development and implementation of the performance-based codes. However, there are some difficulties in this process. Most of them are due to the uncertainties associated with fire design. For instance, one of the questions that need to be answered is how to select the most probable fire origin room (FOR)? On the other hand, to know where the FOR is located is also an important aspect in terms of forensic issues. Given that, to address this question is an important step for the establishment of fire designs (i.e., pre-fire phases) and also for fire investigations (i.e., post-fire phases). This paper proposes a methodology for selecting the FOR through the use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model: the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The proposed method is then applied to a hypothetical study case. The results are presented and discussed in this paper.

Coastal Zone Ecosystem Services: From science to values and decision making; a case study

This research is concerned with the following environmental research questions: socio-ecological system complexity, especially when valuing ecosystem services; ecosystems stock and services flow sustainability and valuation; the incorporation of scale issues when valuing ecosystem services; and the integration of knowledge from diverse disciplines for governance and decision making. In this case study, we focused on ecosystem services that can be jointly supplied but independently valued in economic terms: healthy climate (via carbon sequestration and storage), food (via fisheries production in nursery grounds), and nature recreation (nature watching and enjoyment). We also explored the issue of ecosystem stock and services flow, and we provide recommendations on how to value stock and flows of ecosystem services via accounting and economic values respectively. We considered broadly comparable estuarine systems located on the English North Sea coast: the Blackwater estuary and the Humber estuary. In the past, these two estuaries have undergone major land-claim. Managed realignment is a policy through which previously claimed intertidal habitats are recreated allowing the enhancement of the ecosystem services provided by saltmarshes. In this context, we investigated ecosystem service values, through biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates. Using an optimistic (extended conservation of coastal ecosystems) and a pessimistic (loss of coastal ecosystems because of, for example, European policy reversal) scenario, we find that context dependency, and hence value transfer possibilities, vary among ecosystem services and benefits. As a result, careful consideration in the use and application of value transfer, both in biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates, is advocated to supply reliable information for policy making.

Assessment of factors that influence physician decision making regarding medication use in patients with dementia at the end of life

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the extent to which patient-related factors and physicians' country of practice (Northern Ireland [NI] and the Republic of Ireland [RoI]) influenced decision making regarding medication use in patients with end-stage dementia.

Methods
The study utilised a factorial survey design comprising four vignettes to evaluate initiating/withholding or continuing/discontinuing specific medications in patients with dementia nearing death. Questionnaires and vignettes were mailed to all hospital physicians in geriatric medicine and to all general practitioners (GPs) in NI (November 2010) and RoI (December 2010), with a second copy provided 3 weeks after the first mailing. Logistic regression models were constructed to examine the impact of patient-related factors and physicians' country of practice on decision making. Significance was set a priori at p ≤ 0.05. Free text responses to open questions were analysed qualitatively using content analysis.

Results
The response rate was 20.6% (N = 662) [21.1% (N = 245) for GPs and 52.1% (N = 38) for hospital physicians in NI, 18.3% (N = 348) for GPs and 36.0% (N = 31) for hospital physicians in RoI]. There was considerable variability in decision making about initiating/withholding antibiotics and continuing/discontinuing the acetylcholinesterase inhibitor and memantine hydrochloride, and less variability in decision making regarding statins and antipsychotics. Patient place of residence and physician's country of practice had the strongest and most consistent effects on decision making although effect sizes were small.

Conclusions
Further research is required into other factors that may impact upon physicians' prescribing decisions for these vulnerable patients and to clarify how the factors examined in this study influence prescribing decisions.

The use of analytical hierarchy process in spatial decision support system for land use management

Geographic information systems give us the possibility to analyze, produce, and edit geographic information. Furthermore, these systems fall short on the analysis and support of complex spatial problems. Therefore, when a spatial problem, like land use management, requires a multi-criteria perspective, multi-criteria decision analysis is placed into spatial decision support systems. The analytic hierarchy process is one of many multi-criteria decision analysis methods that can be used to support these complex problems. Using its capabilities we try to develop a spatial decision support system, to help land use management. Land use management can undertake a broad spectrum of spatial decision problems. The developed decision support system had to accept as input, various formats and types of data, raster or vector format, and the vector could be polygon line or point type. The support system was designed to perform its analysis for the Zambezi river Valley in Mozambique, the study area. The possible solutions for the emerging problems had to cover the entire region. This required the system to process large sets of data, and constantly adjust to new problems’ needs. The developed decision support system, is able to process thousands of alternatives using the analytical hierarchy process, and produce an output suitability map for the problems faced.

Sustainability indicators for environmental management and decision making

The general objective of this research is to explore theories and methodologies of sustainability indicators, environmental management and decision making disciplines with the operational purpose of producing scientific, robust and relevant information for supporting system understanding and decision making in real case studies. Several tools have been applied in order to increase the understanding of socio-ecological systems as well as providing relevant information on the choice between alternatives. These tools have always been applied having in mind the complexity of the issues and the uncertainty tied to the partial knowledge of the systems under study. Two case studies with specific application to performances measurement (environmental performances in the case of the K8 approach and sustainable development performances in the case of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy) and a case study about the selection of sustainable development indicators amongst Municipalities in Scotland, are discussed in the first part of the work. In the second part of the work, the common denominator among subjects consists in the application of spatial indices and indicators to address operational problems in land use management within the territory of the Ravenna province (Italy). The main conclusion of the thesis is that a ‘perfect’ methodological approach which always produces the best results in assessing sustainability performances does not exist. Rather, there is a pool of correct approaches answering different evaluation questions, to be used when methodologies fit the purpose of the analysis. For this reason, methodological limits and conceptual assumptions as well as consistency and transparency of the assessment, become the key factors for assessing the quality of the analysis.

Tools for better SLM knowledge management and informed decision-making in addressing land degradation at different scales: the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology

Desertification research conventionally focuses on the problem – that is, degradation – while neglecting the appraisal of successful conservation practices. Based on the premise that Sustainable Land Management (SLM) experiences are not sufficiently or comprehensively documented, evaluated, and shared, the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) initiative (www.wocat.net), in collaboration with FAO’s Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) project (www.fao.org/nr/lada/) and the EU’s DESIRE project (http://www.desire-project.eu/), has developed standardised tools and methods for compiling and evaluating the biophysical and socio-economic knowledge available about SLM. The tools allow SLM specialists to share their knowledge and assess the impact of SLM at the local, national, and global levels. As a whole, the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology comprises tools for documenting, self-evaluating, and assessing the impact of SLM practices, as well as for knowledge sharing and decision support in the field, at the planning level, and in scaling up identified good practices. SLM depends on flexibility and responsiveness to changing complex ecological and socioeconomic causes of land degradation. The WOCAT tools are designed to reflect and capture this capacity of SLM. In order to take account of new challenges and meet emerging needs of WOCAT users, the tools are constantly further developed and adapted. Recent enhancements include tools for improved data analysis (impact and cost/benefit), cross-scale mapping, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management, and easier reporting on SLM best practices to UNCCD and other national and international partners. Moreover, WOCAT has begun to give land users a voice by backing conventional documentation with video clips straight from the field. To promote the scaling up of SLM, WOCAT works with key institutions and partners at the local and national level, for example advisory services and implementation projects. Keywords: Sustainable Land Management (SLM), knowledge management, decision-making, WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology.

Building up and sharing knowledge for better decision making on soil and water conservation in a changing mountain environment - the WOCAT experience

For successful implementation of any soil and water conservation (SWC) or sustainable land management practice, it is essential to have a proper understanding of the natural and human environment in which these practices are applied. This understanding should be based on comprehensive information concerning the application of the technologies and not solely on the technological details. The World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) is documenting and evaluating SWC practices worldwide, following a standardised methodology that facilitates exchange and comparison of experiences. Notwithstanding this standardisation, WOCAT allows flexible use of its outputs, adapted to different users and different environments. WOCAT offers a valuable tool for evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of SWC practices and their potential for application in other areas. Besides collecting a wealth of information, gaps in available information are also exposed, showing the need for more research in those fields. Several key issues for development- oriented research have been identified and are being addressed in collaboration with a research programme for mitigating syndromes of global change.

Soil and land information: How to support decision-making?

Soils are fundamental to ensuring water, energy and food security. Within the context of sus- tainable food production, it is important to share knowledge on existing and emerging tech- nologies that support land and soil monitoring. Technologies, such as remote sensing, mobile soil testing, and digital soil mapping, have the potential to identify degraded and non- /little-responsive soils, and may also provide a basis for programmes targeting the protection and rehabilitation of soils. In the absence of such information, crop production assessments are often not based on the spatio-temporal variability in soil characteristics. In addition, uncertain- ties in soil information systems are notable and build up when predictions are used for monitor- ing soil properties or biophysical modelling. Consequently, interpretations of model-based results have to be done cautiously. As such they provide a scientific, but not always manage- able, basis for farmers and/or policymakers. In general, the key incentives for stakeholders to aim for sustainable management of soils and more resilient food systems are complex at farm as well as higher levels. The same is true of drivers of soil degradation. The decision- making process aimed at sustainable soil management, be that at farm or higher level, also in- volves other goals and objectives valued by stakeholders, e.g. land governance, improved envi- ronmental quality, climate change adaptation and mitigation etc. In this dialogue session we will share ideas on recent developments in the discourse on soils, their functions and the role of soil and land information in enhancing food system resilience.

MOIRA-PLUS use in decision making on the long-term management of contaminated freshwater bodies and catchments

In the mid-long-term after a nuclear accident, the contamination of drinking water sources, fish and other aquatic foodstuffs, irrigation supplies and people?s exposure during recreational activities may create considerable public concern, even though dose assessment may in certain situations indicate lesser importance than for other sources, as clearly experienced in the aftermath of past accidents. In such circumstances there are a number of available countermeasure options, ranging from specific chemical treatment of lakes to bans on fish ingestion or on the use of water for crop irrigation. The potential actions can be broadly grouped into four main categories, chemical, biological, physical and social. In some cases a combination of actions may be the optimal strategy and a decision support system (DSS) like MOIRA-PLUS can be of great help to optimise a decision. A further option is of course not to take any remedial actions, although this may also have significant socio-economic repercussions which should be adequately evaluated. MOIRA-PLUS is designed to allow for a reliable assessment of the long-term evolution of the radiological situation and of feasible alternative rehabilitation strategies, including an objective evaluation of their social, economic and ecological impacts in a rational and comprehensive manner. MOIRA-PLUS also features a decision analysis methodology, making use of multi-attribute analysis, which can take into account the preferences and needs of different types of stakeholders. The main functions and elements of the system are described summarily. Also the conclusions from end-user?s experiences with the system are discussed, including exercises involving the organizations responsible for emergency management and the affected services, as well as different local and regional stakeholders. MOIRAPLUS has proven to be a mature system, user friendly and relatively easy to set up. It can help to better decisionmaking by enabling a realistic evaluation of the complete impacts of possible recovery strategies. Also, the interaction with stakeholders has allowed identifying improvements of the system that have been recently implemented.

Accessibility instruments for planning practice: bridging the gap between academic research and decision-making.

One of the core objectives of urban planning practice is to provide spatial equity in terms of opportunities and use of public space and facilities. Accessibility is the element that serves this purpose as a concept linking the reciprocal relationship between transport and land use, thus shaping individual potential mobility to reach the desired destinations. Accessibility concepts are increasingly acknowledged as fundamental to understand the functioning of cities and urban regions. Indeed, by introducing them in planning practice, better solutions can be achieved in terms of spatial equity. The COST Action TU1002 "Accessibility instruments for planning practice" was specifically designed to address the gap between scientific research in measuring and modelling accessibility, and the current use of indicators of accessibility in urban planning practice. This paper shows the full process of introducing an easily understandable measure of accessibility to planning practitioners in Madrid, which is one of the case studies of the above-mentioned COST action. Changes in accessibility after the opening of a new metro line using contour measures were analyzed and then presented to a selection of urban planners and practitioners in Madrid as part of a workshop to evaluate the usefulness of this tool for planning practice. Isochrone maps were confirmed as an effective tool, as their utility can be supplemented by other indicators, and being GIS-based, it can be easily computed (when compared with transport models) and integrated with other datasets.

Improved career decision-making through the use of labor market information /

Mode of access: Internet.