The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss

We introduce duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008). If the central bank responds only to (current, lagged or expected future) inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment guarantees determinacy. Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.

Effects of corticosterone on innate and humoral immune functions and oxidative stress in barn owl nestlings.

The costs of coping with stressful situations are traded-off against other functions such as immune responses. This trade-off may explain why corticosterone secretion reduces immune reactions. Corticosterone differentially affects various immunity components. However, which component is suppressed varies between studies. It remains unclear whether the trade-off in energy, nutrition, autoimmunity or oxidative stress accounts for differential immunosuppression. In this study, we investigated whether corticosterone differentially affects the constitutive innate and humoral acquired immunity. We used barn owl nestlings, implanting 50% with a corticosterone-releasing pellet and the other 50% with a placebo pellet. To measure the effect on humoral immunity we vaccinated 50% of the corticosterone-nestlings and 50% of the placebo-nestlings with the antigens 'Tetravac' and the other 50% were injected with PBS. To assess the costs of elevated corticosterone, we measured body mass and resistance to oxidative stress. Administration of corticosterone increased corticosterone levels whereas vaccination induced the production of antibodies. Corticosterone reduced the production of antibodies, but it did not significantly affect the constitutive innate immunity. Corticosterone reduced body growth and resistance to oxidative stress. Under stressful conditions barn owl nestlings seem to keep the constitutive innate immunity, whereas elevated corticosterone levels negatively affected inducible immune responses. We found evidence that mounting a humoral immune reaction is not costly in terms of growth, but reduces the resistance to oxidative stress independently of corticosterone administration. We suggest that humoral immunity is suppressed because the risk of immunopathologies may be disproportionately high when mounting an antibody response under stressful situations.

Examining the Agreement of Structural Loss Measured With Heidelberg Retinal Tomograhy and Functional Loss With Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP; Octopus), Pulsar Perimetry (PP), and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) Perimetry

Purpose: To examine the relationship of functional measurements with structural measures. Methods: 146 eyes of 83 test subjects underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII) (disc area<2.43, mphsd<40), and perimetry testing with Octopus (SAP; Dynamic), Pulsar (PP; TOP) and Moorfields MDT (ESTA). Glaucoma was defined as progressive structural or functional loss (20 eyes). Perimetry test points were grouped into 6 sectors based on the estimated optic nerve head angle into which the associated nerve fiber bundle enters (Garway-Heath map). Perimetry summary measures (PSM) (MD SAP/ MD PP/ PTD MDT) were calculated from the average total deviation of each measured threshold from the normal for each sector. We calculated the 95% significance level of the sectorial PSM from the respective normative data. We calculated the percentage agreement with group1 (G1), healthy on HRT and within normal perimetric limits, and group 2 (G2), abnormal on HRT and outside normal perimetric limits. We also examined the relationship of PSM and rim area (RA) in those sectors classified as abnormal by MRA (Moorfields Regression Analysis) of HRT. Results: The mean age was 65 (range= [37, 89]). The global sensitivity versus specificity of each instrument in detecting glaucomatous eyes was: MDT 80% vs. 88%, SAP 80% vs. 80%, PP 70% vs. 89% and HRT 80% vs. 79%. Highest percentage agreement of HRT (respectively G1, G2, sector) with PSM were MDT (89%, 57%, nasal superior), SAP (83%, 74%, temporal superior), PP (74%, 63%, nasal superior). Globally percentage agreement (respectively G1, G2) was MDT (92%, 28%), SAP (87%, 40%) and PP (77%, 49%). Linear regression showed there was no significant trend globally associating RA and PSM. However, sectorally the supero-nasal sector had a statistically significant (p<0.001) trend with each instrument, the associated r2 coefficients are (MDT 0.38 SAP 0.56 and PP 0.39). Conclusions: There were no significant differences in global sensitivity or specificity between instruments. Structure-function relationships varied significantly between instruments and were consistently strongest supero-nasally. Further studies are required to investigate these relationships in detail.

Cytomegalovirus serology and replication remain associated with solid organ graft rejection and graft loss in the era of prophylactic treatment.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) replication has been associated with more risk for solid organ graft rejection. We wondered whether this association still holds when patients at risk receive prophylactic treatment for CMV. METHODS: We correlated CMV infection, biopsy-proven graft rejection, and graft loss in 1,414 patients receiving heart (n=97), kidney (n=917), liver (n=237), or lung (n=163) allografts reported to the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study. RESULTS: Recipients of all organs were at an increased risk for biopsy-proven graft rejection within 4 weeks after detection of CMV replication (hazard ratio [HR] after heart transplantation, 2.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-4.94, P<0.001; HR after kidney transplantation, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.16-2.16, P=0.02; HR after liver transplantation, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.53-3.17, P<0.001; HR after lung transplantation, 5.83; 95% CI, 3.12-10.9, P<0.001. Relative hazards were comparable in patients with asymptomatic or symptomatic CMV infection. The CMV donor or recipient serological constellation also predicted the incidence of graft rejection after liver and lung transplantation, with significantly higher rates of rejection in transplants in which donor or recipient were CMV seropositive (non-D-/R-), compared with D- transplant or R- transplant (HR, 3.05; P=0.002 for liver and HR, 2.42; P=0.01 for lung transplants). Finally, graft loss occurred more frequently in non-D- or non-R- compared with D- transplant or R- transplant in all organs analyzed. Valganciclovir prophylactic treatment seemed to delay, but not prevent, graft loss in non-D- or non-R- transplants. CONCLUSION: Cytomegalovirus replication and donor or recipient seroconstellation remains associated with graft rejection and graft loss in the era of prophylactic CMV treatment.

Location of multiple server common service centers or public facilities for minimizing general congestion and travel cost functions

We propose a model and solution methods, for locating a fixed number ofmultiple-server, congestible common service centers or congestible publicfacilities. Locations are chosen so to minimize consumers congestion (orqueuing) and travel costs, considering that all the demand must be served.Customers choose the facilities to which they travel in order to receiveservice at minimum travel and congestion cost. As a proxy for thiscriterion, total travel and waiting costs are minimized. The travel costis a general function of the origin and destination of the demand, whilethe congestion cost is a general function of the number of customers inqueue at the facilities.

Differentiation of trophoblast giant cells and their metabolic functions are dependent on peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta/delta.

Mutation of the nuclear receptor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta/delta (PPARbeta/delta) severely affects placenta development, leading to embryonic death at embryonic day 9.5 (E9.5) to E10.5 of most, but not all, PPARbeta/delta-null mutant embryos. While very little is known at present about the pathway governed by PPARbeta/delta in the developing placenta, this paper demonstrates that the main alteration of the placenta of PPARbeta/delta-null embryos is found in the giant cell layer. PPARbeta/delta activity is in fact essential for the differentiation of the Rcho-1 cells in giant cells, as shown by the severe inhibition of differentiation once PPARbeta/delta is silenced. Conversely, exposure of Rcho-1 cells to a PPARbeta/delta agonist triggers a massive differentiation via increased expression of 3-phosphoinositide-dependent kinase 1 and integrin-linked kinase and subsequent phosphorylation of Akt. The links between PPARbeta/delta activity in giant cells and its role on Akt activity are further strengthened by the remarkable pattern of phospho-Akt expression in vivo at E9.5, specifically in the nucleus of the giant cells. In addition to this phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/Akt main pathway, PPARbeta/delta also induced giant cell differentiation via increased expression of I-mfa, an inhibitor of Mash-2 activity. Finally, giant cell differentiation at E9.5 is accompanied by a PPARbeta/delta-dependent accumulation of lipid droplets and an increased expression of the adipose differentiation-related protein (also called adipophilin), which may participate to lipid metabolism and/or steroidogenesis. Altogether, this important role of PPARbeta/delta in placenta development and giant cell differentiation should be considered when contemplating the potency of PPARbeta/delta agonist as therapeutic agents of broad application.

Ly49D engagement on T lymphocytes induces TCR-independent activation and CD8 effector functions that control tumor growth.

Recent data showing expression of activating NK receptors (NKR) by conventional T lymphocytes raise the question of their role in the triggering of TCR-independent responses that could be damaging for the host. Transgenic mice expressing the activating receptor Ly49D/DAP12 offer the opportunity to better understand the relevance of ITAM signaling in the biology of T cells. In vitro experiments showed that Ly49D engagement on T lymphocytes by a cognate MHC class I ligand expressed by Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells or by specific Ab triggered cellular activation of both CD4 and CD8 populations with modulation of activation markers and cytokine production. The forced expression of the ITAM signaling chain DAP12 is mandatory for Ly49D-transgenic T cell activation. In addition, Ly49D stimulation induced T lymphocyte proliferation, which was much stronger for CD8 T cells. Phenotypic analysis of anti-Ly49D-stimulated CD8 T cells and their ability to produce high levels of IFN-gamma and to kill target cells indicate that Ly49D ligation generates effector cytotoxic CD8 T cells. Ly49D engagement by itself also triggered cytotoxic activity of activated CD8 T cells. Adoptive transfer experiments confirmed that Ly49D-transgenic CD8 T cells are able to control growth of CHO tumor cells or RMA cells transfected with Hm1-C4, the Ly49D ligand normally expressed by CHO. In conclusion, Ly49D engagement on T cells leads to T cell activation and to a full range of TCR-independent effector functions of CD8 T cells.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Fatigue and weight loss predict survival on circadian chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia has been associated with prolonged survival selectively in patients on a conventional schedule (combined 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin [FOLFOX2]) but not on a chronomodulated schedule of the same drugs administered at specific circadian times (chronoFLO4). The authors hypothesized that the early occurrence of chemotherapy-induced symptoms correlated with circadian disruption would selectively hinder the efficacy of chronotherapy. METHODS: Fatigue and weight loss (FWL) were considered to be associated with circadian disruption based on previous data. Patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (nâeuro0/00=âeuro0/00543) from an international phase 3 trial comparing FOLFOX2 with chronoFLO4 were categorized into 4 subgroups according to the occurrence of FWL or other clinically relevant toxicities during the initial 2 courses of chemotherapy. Multivariate Cox models were used to assess the role of toxicity on the time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: The proportions of patients in the 4 subgroups were comparable in both treatment arms (Pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/00.77). No toxicity was associated with TTP or OS on FOLFOX2. The median OS on FOLFOX2 ranged from 16.4 (95% confidence limits [CL], 7.2-25.6 months) to 19.8 months (95% CL, 17.7-22.0 months) according to toxicity subgroup (Pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/00.45). Conversely, FWL, but no other toxicity, independently predicted for significantly shorter TTP (Pâeuro0/00<âeuro0/00.0001) and OS (Pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/00.001) on chronoFLO4. The median OS on chronoFLO4 was 13.8 months (95% CL, 10.4-17.2 months) or 21.1 months (95% CL, 19.0-23.1 months) according to presence or absence of chemotherapy-induced FWL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Early onset chemotherapy-induced FWL was an independent predictor of poor TTP and OS only on chronotherapy. Dynamic monitoring to detect early chemotherapy-induced circadian disruption could allow the optimization of rapid chronotherapy and concomitant improvements in safety and efficacy.

Ex vivo characterization of human CD8+ T subsets with distinct replicative history and partial effector functions.

After antigenic challenge, naive T lymphocytes enter a program of proliferation and differentiation during the course of which they acquire effector functions and may ultimately become memory cells. In humans, the pathways of effector and memory T-cell differentiation remain poorly defined. Here we describe the properties of 2 CD8+ T-lymphocyte subsets, RA+CCR7-27+28+ and RA+CCR7-27+28-, in human peripheral blood. These cells display phenotypic and functional features that are intermediate between naive and effector T cells. Like naive T lymphocytes, both subsets show relatively long telomeres. However, unlike the naive population, these T cells exhibit reduced levels of T-cell receptor excision circles (TRECs), indicating they have undergone additional rounds of in vivo cell division. Furthermore, we show that they also share effector-type properties. At equivalent in vivo replicative history, the 2 subsets express high levels of Fas/CD95 and CD11a, as well as increasing levels of effector mediators such as granzyme B, perforin, interferon gamma, and tumor necrosis factor alpha. Both display partial ex vivo cytolytic activity and can be found among cytomegalovirus-specific cytolytic T cells. Taken together, our data point to the presence of T cells with intermediate effector-like functions and suggest that these subsets consist of T lymphocytes that are evolving toward a more differentiated effector or effector-memory stage.

A peptide inhibitor of c-Jun N-terminal kinase protects against both aminoglycoside and acoustic trauma-induced auditory hair cell death and hearing loss.

Hearing loss can be caused by a variety of insults, including acoustic trauma and exposure to ototoxins, that principally effect the viability of sensory hair cells via the MAP kinase (MAPK) cell death signaling pathway that incorporates c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK). We evaluated the otoprotective efficacy of D-JNKI-1, a cell permeable peptide that blocks the MAPK-JNK signal pathway. The experimental studies included organ cultures of neonatal mouse cochlea exposed to an ototoxic drug and cochleae of adult guinea pigs that were exposed to either an ototoxic drug or acoustic trauma. Results obtained from the organ of Corti explants demonstrated that the MAPK-JNK signal pathway is associated with injury and that blocking of this signal pathway prevented apoptosis in areas of aminoglycoside damage. Treatment of the neomycin-exposed organ of Corti explants with D-JNKI-1 completely prevented hair cell death initiated by this ototoxin. Results from in vivo studies showed that direct application of D-JNKI-1 into the scala tympani of the guinea pig cochlea prevented nearly all hair cell death and permanent hearing loss induced by neomycin ototoxicity. Local delivery of D-JNKI-1 also prevented acoustic trauma-induced permanent hearing loss in a dose-dependent manner. These results indicate that the MAPK-JNK signal pathway is involved in both ototoxicity and acoustic trauma-induced hair cell loss and permanent hearing loss. Blocking this signal pathway with D-JNKI-1 is of potential therapeutic value for long-term protection of both the morphological integrity and physiological function of the organ of Corti during times of oxidative stress.