Retention Time Variability as a Mechanism for Animal Mediated Long-Distance Dispersal

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) events, although rare for most plant species, can strongly influence population and community dynamics. Animals function as a key biotic vector of seeds and thus, a mechanistic and quantitative understanding of how individual animal behaviors scale to dispersal patterns at different spatial scales is a question of critical importance from both basic and applied perspectives. Using a diffusion-theory based analytical approach for a wide range of animal movement and seed transportation patterns, we show that the scale (a measure of local dispersal) of the seed dispersal kernel increases with the organisms' rate of movement and mean seed retention time. We reveal that variations in seed retention time is a key determinant of various measures of LDD such as kurtosis (or shape) of the kernel, thinkness of tails and the absolute number of seeds falling beyond a threshold distance. Using empirical data sets of frugivores, we illustrate the importance of variability in retention times for predicting the key disperser species that influence LDD. Our study makes testable predictions linking animal movement behaviors and gut retention times to dispersal patterns and, more generally, highlights the potential importance of animal behavioral variability for the LDD of seeds.

Smiling under stochastic volatility

This paper studies the behavior of the implied volatility function (smile) when the true distribution of the underlying asset is consistent with the stochastic volatility model proposed by Heston (1993). The main result of the paper is to extend previous results applicable to the smile as a whole to alternative degrees of moneyness. The conditions under which the implied volatility function changes whenever there is a change in the parameters associated with Hestons stochastic volatility model for a given degree of moneyness are given.

Mussel Community Studies [Year Three].

The communities associated with Mytilus californianus (mussel) beds from 20 geographic sites in southern California were examined. The study areas included six mainland sites - Government Point, Goleta Point, Ventura, Corona del Mar, Carlsbad, and San Diego,and two sites on opposite sides of seven offshore islands - San Miguel Island, Santa Rosa Island, Santa Cruz Island, Anacapa Island, San Nicholas Island, Santa Cruz Island and San Clemente Island. : The mussel communities from all areas contributed to the master species list which now encompasses conservatively, 610 species of animals and 141 species of algae. The most diverse collection came from Cat Rock, Anacapa Island where the mussel beds supported 174 species of invertebrates. The lowest diversity was recorded for mussel beds from Ben Weston, Santa Catalina Island which contained 46 species. In general, the island mussel beds supported a greater diversity of both animals and plants. Mussel community samples were collected from upper and lower intertidal areas occupied by the mussel beds within a locality. Community differences in both composition and abundance were associated with these collections. Overall. community similarity analysis revealed five major patterns which corresponded to characteristic species assemblages occupying the mussel beds from the various geographic areas. The patterns included: (1) clusters of localities which display a north-south geographic pattern with respect to the similarity of their respective mussel communities, (2) a separation of selected island and mainland communities because of dissimilarities in their species composition, (3) differences between mussel communities. on opposite sides of the offshore islands, (4) clusters of species whose highest abundances characterize selected localities, (5) species groups ubiquitous to all mussel beds examined. The results of the community analysis further suggest that predictions can be made delineating the probable mussel community inhabitants of areas not sampled. The species distribution patterns observed appear to correspond in part to the influence of currents and water masses which bear planktonic larvae and impinge on selected localities. The most important mussel bed features associated with community differences were quantitative and qualitative differences in the potential microhabitats. Those features associate~ with greater species diversity include the pore base of coarse fraction shell and rock debris, skewness and kurtosis of the sediment grain-size distributions and mussel bed thickness. Those features associated with lower species diversity included the quantity of tar. and rock and shell debris trapped within the mussel bed. (PDF contains 51 pages)

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Um esquema de Fourier local para análise tempo-frequência de sinais não-estacionários aplicado a ruído eletroquímico

Sinais diversos estão presentes em nosso cotidiano, assim como nas medidas realizadas nas atividades de ciência e tecnologia. Dentre estes sinais, tem grande importância tecnológica aqueles associados à corrosão de estruturas metálicas. Assim, esta tese propõe o estudo de um esquema local de transformada de Fourier janelada, com a janela variando em função da curtose, aplicada a sinais de ruído eletroquímico. A curtose foi avaliada nos domínios do tempo e da frequência e processada pelo programa desenvolvido para esse fim. O esquema foi aplicado a sinais de ruído eletroquímico dos aços UNS S31600, UNS G10200 e UNS S32750 imersos em três soluções: FeCl3 0,1 mol=L (cloreto férrico), H2SO4 5%(ácido sulfúrico) e NaOH 0,1%(hidróxido de sódio). Para os aços inoxidáveis, estas soluções promovem corrosão localizada, uniforme e passivação, respectivamente. Visando testar o desempenho do esquema de Fourier desenvolvido, testes foram realizados utilizando-se inicialmente sinais sintéticos e em seguida sinais de ruído eletroquímico. Notou-se que os sinais têm características de não-estacionaridade e a maior parte da energia está presente em baixa frequência. Os intervalos de tempo e de frequência onde se concentra a maior parte da energia do sinal foram correlacionados. Para os picos máximos dos sinais de potencial e corrente obtidos de amperimetria de resistência nula, a correlação entre eles foi baixa, independente da forma de corrosão presente. Conclui-se que o método se adaptou bastante bem às características locais do sinal eletroquímico permitindo o monitoramento dos espectros tempo-frequência. O fato de ser sensível às características locais do sinal permite analisar aspectos dos sinais que do modo clássico não podem ser diretamente processados. O método da transformada de Fourier janelada variável (Variable Short-Time Fourier Transform - VSTFT) adaptou-se muito bem no monitoramento dos sinais originados de potencial de circuito aberto e amperimetria de resistência nula.

Study of the turbulence in the air-side and water-side boundary layers in experimental laboratory wind induced surface waves

This study detailed the structure of turbulence in the air-side and water-side boundary layers in wind-induced surface waves. Inside the air boundary layer, the kurtosis is always greater than 3 (the value for normal distribution) for both horizontal and vertical velocity fluctuations. The skewness for the horizontal velocity is negative, but the skewness for the vertical velocity is always positive. On the water side, the kurtosis is always greater than 3, and the skewness is slightly negative for the horizontal velocity and slightly positive for the vertical velocity. The statistics of the angle between the instantaneous vertical fluctuation and the instantaneous horizontal velocity in the air is similar to those obtained over solid walls. Measurements in water show a large variance, and the peak is biased towards negative angles. In the quadrant analysis, the contribution of quadrants Q2 and Q4 is dominant on both the air side and the water side. The non-dimensional relative contributions and the concentration match fairly well near the interface. Sweeps in the air side (belonging to quadrant Q4) act directly on the interface and exert pressure fluctuations, which, in addition to the tangential stress and form drag, lead to the growth of the waves. The water drops detached from the crest and accelerated by the wind can play a major role in transferring momentum and in enhancing the turbulence level in the water side.On the air side, the Reynolds stress tensor's principal axes are not collinear with the strain rate tensor, and show an angle α σ≈=-20°to-25°. On the water side, the angle is α σ≈=-40°to-45°. The ratio between the maximum and the minimum principal stresses is σ a/σ b=3to4 on the air side, and σ a/σ b=1.5to3 on the water side. In this respect, the air-side flow behaves like a classical boundary layer on a solid wall, while the water-side flow resembles a wake. The frequency of bursting on the water side increases significantly along the flow, which can be attributed to micro-breaking effects - expected to be more frequent at larger fetches. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Internal representations of temporal statistics and feedback calibrate motor-sensory interval timing.

Humans have been shown to adapt to the temporal statistics of timing tasks so as to optimize the accuracy of their responses, in agreement with the predictions of Bayesian integration. This suggests that they build an internal representation of both the experimentally imposed distribution of time intervals (the prior) and of the error (the loss function). The responses of a Bayesian ideal observer depend crucially on these internal representations, which have only been previously studied for simple distributions. To study the nature of these representations we asked subjects to reproduce time intervals drawn from underlying temporal distributions of varying complexity, from uniform to highly skewed or bimodal while also varying the error mapping that determined the performance feedback. Interval reproduction times were affected by both the distribution and feedback, in good agreement with a performance-optimizing Bayesian observer and actor model. Bayesian model comparison highlighted that subjects were integrating the provided feedback and represented the experimental distribution with a smoothed approximation. A nonparametric reconstruction of the subjective priors from the data shows that they are generally in agreement with the true distributions up to third-order moments, but with systematically heavier tails. In particular, higher-order statistical features (kurtosis, multimodality) seem much harder to acquire. Our findings suggest that humans have only minor constraints on learning lower-order statistical properties of unimodal (including peaked and skewed) distributions of time intervals under the guidance of corrective feedback, and that their behavior is well explained by Bayesian decision theory.

Wavelet denoising and feature extraction of seismic signal for footstep detection

Seismic sensors are widely used to detect moving target in ground sensor networks. Footstep detection is very important for security surveillance and other applications. Because of non-stationary characteristic of seismic signal and complex environment conditions, footstep detection is a very challenging problem. A novel wavelet denoising method based on singular value decomposition is used to solve these problems. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of raw footstep signal is greatly improved using this strategy. The feature extraction method is also discussed after denosing procedure. Comparing, with kurtosis statistic feature, the wavelet energy feature is more promising for seismic footstep detection, especially in a long distance surveillance.

Brazos River bar; a study in the significance of grain size parameters

A bar on the Brazos River near Calvert, Texas, has been analyzed in order to determine the geologic meaning of certain grain size parameters and to study the behavior of the size fractions with transport. The bar consists of a strongly bimodal mixture of pebble gravel and medium to fine sand; there is a lack of material in the range of 0.5 to 2 mm, because the source does not supply particles of this size. The size distributions of the two modes, which were established in the parent deposits, are nearly invariant over the bar because the present environment of deposition only affects the relative proportions of the two modes, not the grain size properties of the modes themselves. Two proportions are most common; the sediment either contains no gravel or else contains about 60% gravel. Three sediment types with characteristic bedding features occur on the bar in constant stratigraphic order, with the coarsest at the base. Statistical analysis of the data is based on a series of grain size parameters modified from those of Inman (1952) to provide a more detailed coverage of non-normal size curves. Unimodal sediments have nearly normal curves as defined by their skewness and kurtosis. Non-normal kurtosis and skewness values are held to be the identifying characteristics of bimodal sediments even where such modes are not evident in frequency curves. The relative proportions of each mode define a systematic series of changes in numerical properties; mean size, standard deviation and skewness are shown to be linked in a helical trend, which is believed to be applicable to many other sedimentary suites. The equations of the helix may be characteristic of certain environments. Kurtosis values show rhythmic pulsations along the helix and are diagnostic of two-generation sediments.

Measures for describing the size distribution of sediments

Numerous measures are used in the literature to describe the grain-size distribution of sediments. Consideration of these measures indicates that parameters computed from quartiles may not be as significant as those based on more rigorous statistical concepts. In addition, the lack of standardization of descriptive measures has resulted in limited application of the findings from one locality to another. The use of five parameters that serve as approximate graphic analogies to the moment measures commonly employed in statistics is recommended. The parameters are computed from five percentile diameters obtained from the cumulative size-frequency curve of a sediment. They include the mean (or median) diameter, standard deviation, kurtosis, and two measures of skewness, the second measure being sensitive to skew properties of the "tails" of the sediment distribution. If the five descriptive measures are listed for a sediment, it is possible to compute the five percentile diameters on which they are based (phi 5 , phi 16 , phi 50 , phi 84 , and phi 95 ), and hence five significant points on the cumulative carve of the sediment. This increases the value of the data listed for a sediment in a report, and in many cases eliminates the necessity of including the complete mechanical analysis of the sediment. The degree of correlation of the graphic parameters to the corresponding moment measures decreases as the distribution becomes more skew. However, for a fairly wide range of distributions, the first three moment measures can be ascertained from the graphic parameters with about the same degree of accuracy as is obtained by computing rough moment measures.

A preliminary study on thermoluminescence characteristics of sediments from the North Pacific

Thirty-eight surficial deposit samples were collected from the equatorial North Pacific, and the natural thermoluminescence (TL) characteristics of both bulk and clay fraction samples ( < 2 mu m fractions) were studied by the FJ427 - Al automatic TL Dosimeter for the first time. With the measurements of clay mineral composition, element composition by XRD and ICP, the correlations between TL intensity and sedimentary environment proxies were analyzed, such as water depth, ratio of FeO to Fe2O3 contents, LOI, and major clay mineral concentration, and it was found the bulk sample's TL signal was stronger than the clay ones. Usually, increase in the clay components may result in the decrease of TL intensity. From the shape of TL curves, the pelagic sediments can be divided into two groups: the majority group has two glow peaks, in general, the first peak is broad and flat, but the second narrow and sharp; the minority group only has a single peak because the first is absent. The peak centers of TL curves are almost fixed, falling in the temperature sections 230 similar to 260 and 390 similar to 405 degrees C respectively. Lorentz model packed in the Origin 7.5 was chosen to deal with the TL curves. From the processing results, three parameters ( H, C and A), corresponding to the height, center, and kurtosis of TL curve, were obtained to describe the curve characteristics. The correlations between TL curve parameters and sedimentary environment proxies were also calculated. On the basis of the above work, the relationship between TL characteristics and sediment type, mineral composition, sedimentary environment of surface sediments was discussed in the study area, and a conclusion is: sediments from the environment of shallower water, higher organic contents and weaker reductivity have stronger TL signals.

古龙咀周围海区沉积物粒度特征及海底地形变化

对古龙咀周围浅海区沉积物的粒度进行了测试与分析，结合相关的地质水文资料，探讨了海岸形态对沉积物粒度的影响。研究区表层沉积物平均粒径在海湾浅海区呈带状由岸向海变细，中等水深和岬角处分布着细粒区，向外海粒径相对变粗；除险岛湾砂质区外，分选差；偏态多数为正偏或近正态；整体峰形极窄，峰型多样。底质类型以粘土质粉砂和砂质粉砂为主，由东北经古龙咀岬角向西南形成S形粘土质粉砂分布带，险岛湾地区沉积物呈带状由砂逐渐过渡到粉砂。潮汐和波浪是本区沉积物输运的主要水动力，岬角的存在影响了沉积物粒度的分布。粒度趋势分析表明沉积物整体有向岬角汇聚的输运趋势。 对收集到基于1954年、1969年、1982年测量绘成的地形图水深数据进行数字化，结合2005年测量的水深数据，分别建立各时期DEM图，在此基础上分析研究区的地形特征。四个时期海底DEM呈现出大体一致的趋势，在险岛湾及白沙口海湾内为浅水区，水深值在-1～-4 m之间，深水区主要分布在南黄岛南端至古龙咀连线以南区域，呈扇形展布，水深由南黄岛两侧向中间逐渐加深，水深值在-10～ -17 m之间。从整体上看，研究区海底地形呈NW-SE方向逐渐加深。 将数字化后的水深数据统一校正到1956黄海高程系，分别建立DEM，运用GIS的栅格计算分析得出冲淤变化图。相关结果表明：1954～1969年研究区整体近岸为冲（险岛湾除外），离岸海域为淤；1969～1982年研究区总体处于弱淤积状态；1982-2005研究区海域近岸为淤，外海以弱冲刷状态为主。

晚中新世以来中国北方风成沉积的磁性地层学和沉积学研究

The past two decades have witnessed an unprecedented growth of interest in the palaeoenvironmental significance of the Pleistocene loess deposits in northern China. However, it is only several years ago that the Tertiary red clay sequence underlying Pleistocene loess attracted much attention. One of the major advances in recent studies of eolian deposits on the Loess Plateau is the verification of the eolian origin for the Tertiary red clay sediments. The evidence of the eolian origin for the red clay is mainly from geochemical and sedimentological studies. However, sedimentological studies of the red clay deposits are still few compared with those of the overlying loess sediments. To date, the red clay sections located near Xifeng, Baoji, Lantian, Jiaxian, and Lingtai have been studied, with an emphasis on magnetostratigraphy. These sections have a basal age ranging from ～4.3 Ma to ～7.0 Ma. The thickness of the sections varies significantly, depending perhaps on the development of local geomorphological conditions and the drainage system. Although the stratigraphy of the red clay sections has been recorded in some detail, correlation of the red clay sequences has not yet been undertaken. Geological records (Sun J. et al., 1998) have shown that during glacial periods of the Quaternary the deserts in northem China were greatly expanded compared with modern desert distribution. During interglacial periods, desert areas contracted and retreated mostly to northwestern China because of the increase in inland penetration of monsoonal precipitation. According to pedogenic characteristics of the red clay deposits, the climatic conditions of the Loess Plateau is warmer and wetter generally in the Neogene than in the late Pleistocene. Panicle analyses show that grain size distribution of the red clay sequence is similar to that of the paleosols in the Pleistocene loess record, thus implying a relatively remote provenance of the red clay materials. However, the quantitative or semiquantitative estimates of the distance from the source region to the Loess Plateau during the red clay development remains to be investigated. In this study, magnetostratigraphic and sedimentological studies are conducted at two thick red clay sequences-Jingchuan and Lingtai section. The objectives of these studies are focused on further sedimentological evidence for the eolian origin of the red clay, correlation of red clay sequences, provenance of the red clay, and the palaeoclimate reconstruction in the Neogene. Paleomagnetic studies show that the Jingchuan red clay has a basal age of 8.0 Ma, which is 1 million years older than the previously studied Lingtai section. The Lingtai red clay sequence was divided into five units on the basis of pedogenica characteristics (Ding et al., 1999a). The Jingchuan red clay sequence, however, can be lithologically divided into six units according to field observations. The upper five units of the Jingchuan red clay can generally correlate well with the five units of the Lingtai red clay. Comparison of magnetic susceptibility and color reflectance records of four red clay sections suggests that the Lingtai red clay sequence can be the type-section of the Neogene red clay deposits in northern China. Pleistocene loess and modem dust deposits have a unimodal grain-size distribution. The red clay sediments at Jingchuan and Lingtai also have a unimodal grain-size distribution especially similar to the paleosols in the Pleistocene loess record. Sedimentological studies of a north-south transect of loess deposits above S2 on the Loess Plateau show that loess deposits had distinct temporal and spatial sedimentary differentiation. The characteristics of such sedimentary differentiation can be well presented in a triangular diagram of normalized median grain size, normalized skewness, and normalized kurtosis. The triangular diagrams of the red clay-loess sequence at Lingtai and Jingchuan indicate that loess-paleosol-red clay may be transported and sorted by the same agent wind, thus extending the eolian record in the Loess Plateau from 2.6 Ma back to about 8.0 Ma. It has been recognized that during the last glacial maximum (LGM) the deserts in northern China had a distribution similar to the present, whereas during the Holocene Optimum the deserts retreated to the area west of the Helan Mountains. Advance-retreat cycles of the deserts will lead to changes in the distance of the Loess Plateau to the dust source regions, thereby controlling changes in grain size of the loess deposited in a specific site. To observe spatial changes in sedimentological characteristics of loess during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, the texture of loess was measured along the north-south transect of the Loess Plateau. Since the southern margin of the Mu Us desert during the LGM is already known, several models of grain size parameters versus the minimum distance from the source region to depositional areas were developed. According to these semiquantitative models, the minimum distance from the source region to Lingtai and Jingchuan areas is about 600 km during the Neogene. Therefore the estimated provenance of the Tertiary red clay deposits is the areas now occupied by the Badain Jaran desert and arid regions west of it. The ratio of the free iron to total iron concentration attests to being a good proxy indicator for the summer monsoon evolution. The Lingtai Fe_20_3 ratio record shows high values over three time intervals: 4.8-4.1 Ma, 3.4-2.6 Ma, and during the interglacial periods of the past 0.5 Ma. The increase in summer monsoon intensity over the three intervals also coincides with the well-developed soil characteristics. It is therefore concluded that the East-Asia summer monsoon has experienced a non-linear evolution since the late Miocene. In general, the East Asia summer monsoon was stronger in Neogene than in Quaternary and the strongest East Asia summer monsoon may occur between 4.1 and 4.8 Ma. The relatively small ice volume and high global temperature may be responsible for the strong summer monsoon during the early Pliocene.

Tree diameter distribution modelling: introducing the logitlogistic distribution

Johnson's SB distribution is a four-parameter distribution that is transformed into a normal distribution by a logit transformation. By replacing the normal distribution of Johnson's SB with the logistic distribution, we obtain a new distributional model that approximates SB. It is analytically tractable, and we name it the "logitlogistic" (LL) distribution. A generalized four-parameter Weibull model and the Burr XII model are also introduced for comparison purposes. Using the distribution "shape plane" (with axes skew and kurtosis) we compare the "coverage" properties of the LL, the generalized Weibull, and the Burr XII with Johnson's SB, the beta, and the three-parameter Weibull, the main distributions used in forest modelling. The LL is found to have the largest range of shapes. An empirical case study of the distributional models is conducted on 107 sample plots of Chinese fir. The LL performs best among the four-parameter models.

Bivariate distribution modeling with tree diameter and height data

The Logit-Logistic (LL), Johnson's SB, and the Beta (GBD) are flexible four-parameter probability distribution models in terms of the (skewness-kurtosis) region covered, and each has been used for modeling tree diameter distributions in forest stands. This article compares bivariate forms of these models in terms of their adequacy in representing empirical diameter-height distributions from 102 sample plots. Four bivariate models are compared: SBB, the natural, well-known, and much-used bivariate generalization of SB; the bivariate distributions with LL, SB, and Beta as marginals, constructed using Plackett's method (LL-2P, etc.). All models are fitted using maximum likelihood, and their goodness-of-fits are compared using minus log-likelihood (equivalent to Akaike's Information Criterion, the AIC). The performance ranking in this case study was SBB, LL-2P, GBD-2P, and SB-2P