Idées, institutions et intérêts dans le changement de la protection sociale : les politiques de transfert de revenu au Brésil

Cette thèse porte sur l’introduction des politiques de transfert de revenu au Brésil. L’objectif central de la recherche est de comprendre comment ces politiques se sont imposées dans le cadre des réformes de la protection sociale brésilienne pendant les années 1990, notamment à partir de 1995 et comment elles ont engendré un changement paradigmatique de troisième ordre de la politique nationale d’assistance sociale. Nous posons deux hypothèses de recherche : la première est que l’introduction de telles politiques au Brésil fut le résultat du rôle historique des intellectuels engagés dans la défense du revenu minimum en tant qu’alternative au modèle de protection sociale brésilien. Cette défense du revenu minimum fut soutenue par des intellectuels, des communautés épistémiques et par des politiciens qui ont inscrit le débat sur le revenu minimum à l’agenda politique brésilien. La deuxième hypothèse suggère que la convergence d’idées, d’institutions et d’intérêts a favorisé l’adoption de ces politiques. Cette convergence d’idées, d’institutions et d’intérêts repose sur le rôle de plusieurs acteurs tels les intellectuels, le président Cardoso et d’autres politiciens qui se sont mis à la défense du social au Brésil depuis 1999, des institutions parlementaires brésiliennes et des organisations internationales, notamment le FMI, la Banque mondiale et la Banque interaméricaine de développement – BID. Nous proposons l’approche des trois i pour rendre compte de ce changement. L’apprentissage social, les processus de diffusion et de lesson-drawing sont les facteurs à l’origine de la formation de la convergence autour des programmes de transfert de revenu. Nous montrerons que l’expérience brésilienne de programmes de transfert de revenu a non seulement engendré un processus d’apprentissage social renversé auprès de la Banque Mondiale mais qu'elle a aussi eu un effet aussi sur les actions de la BID. Nous suggérons que le changement paradigmatique de la protection sociale brésilienne a été amorcé par le gouvernement Cardoso dans un processus d’essais et d’erreurs. Ce processus, qui est à l’origine des réaménagements du programme « Comunidade Solidária », a permis la création du « Projeto Alvorada » et du « Réseau de protection sociale » en 2001. Les programmes de transfert de revenu reliés à l’éducation et aux soins de santé ont été les plus influents dans la construction du consensus qui s’est établi autour des programmes de transfert de revenu comme alternative à l’ancien modèle de protection sociale puisqu’ils procurent le renforcement du capital social en même temps qu’ils fonctionnent comme facteur structurant de la protection sociale. Ce legs du gouvernement Cardoso a permis au gouvernement de Luis Inácio Lula da Silva de consolider le nouveau paradigme avec la création du programme national Bolsa-Família. Le gouvernement Lula a donc bénéficié de l’héritage historique des deux mandats de Cardoso et, ironiquement, a récolté les fruits de l’apprentissage social. Le phénomène du « lulismo » en est la preuve. Par ailleurs, cette thèse met en question la paternité du programme Bolsa-Família puisqu’elle montre la création de ce programme d'abord comme la consolidation du processus d’apprentissage et puis comme conséquence de la création d’un nouveau paradigme pour la politique d’assistance sociale au Brésil qui a eu lieu pendant les deux mandats de Cardoso.

Alliance Politics in Hybrid Regimes : Political Stability and Instability since World War II

Cette thèse étudie la stabilité et l’instabilité politique des régimes hybrides. Elle pose la question suivante : dans quelles conditions l’autorité des élites au pouvoir est-elle reconnue ou contestée? Notre réponse s’articule en lien avec le caractère inclusif ou exclusif de la coalition dirigeante : c’est-à-dire, l’alliance stratégique des élites dirigeantes avec les groupes sociaux dominants. L’inclusion de ces derniers favorise le consentement et la stabilité; leur exclusion entraîne l’affrontement et l’instabilité politique. Sa composition dépend (i) du degré de violence organisée extra-légale et (ii) du degré de pénétration de l’État sur le territoire et dans l’économie. La première variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (militaires) ou du régime (partis d’opposition) est dominant et influence les formes de communication politique avec les élites dirigeantes. La deuxième variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (fonctionnaires) ou de la société (chefs locaux) est dominant et oriente les rapports entre les régions et le pouvoir central. L’apport de la recherche est d’approfondir notre compréhension des institutions politiques dans les régimes hybrides en mettant l’accent sur l’identité des groupes sociaux dominants dans un contexte donné. La thèse propose un modèle simple, flexible et original permettant d’appréhender des relations causales autrement contre-intuitives. En ce sens, la stabilité politique est également possible dans un pays où l’État est faible et/ou aux prises avec des mouvements de rébellion; et l’instabilité dans un contexte inverse. Tout dépend de la composition de la coalition dirigeante. Afin d’illustrer les liens logiques formulés et d’exposer les nuances de notre théorie, nous employons une analyse historique comparative de la coalition dirigeante en Malaisie (1957-2010), en Indonésie (1945-1998), au Sénégal (1960-2010) et au Paraguay (1945-2008). La principale conclusion est que les deux variables sont incontournables. L’une sans l’autre offre nécessairement une explication incomplète des alliances politiques qui forgent les conditions de stabilité et d'instabilité dans les régimes hybrides.

Involvement and detachment in David Cameron and Ed Miliband’s political discourse. An analysis of deictic shields on the pronoun ‘I’ in UK 2015 General Election news interviews

The goal of my study is to investigate the relationship between selected deictic shields on the pronoun ‘I’ and the involvement/detachment dichotomy in a sample of television news interviews. I focus on the use of personal pronouns in political discourse. Drawing upon Caffi’s (2007) classification of mitigating devices into bushes, hedges and shields, I focus on deictic shields on the pronoun ‘I’: I examine the way a selection of ‘I’-related deictic shields is employed in a collection of news interviews broadcast during the electoral campaign prior to the UK 2015 General Election. My purpose is to uncover the frequencies of each of the linguistic items selected and the pragmatic functions of those linguistic items in the involvement/detachment dichotomy. The research is structured as follows. Chapter 1 provides an account of previous studies on the three main areas of research: speech event analysis, institutional interaction and the news interview, and the UK 2015 General Election television programmes. Chapter 2 is centred on the involvement/detachment dichotomy: I provide an overview of nonlinguistic and linguistic features of involvement and detachment at all levels of sentence structure. Chapter 3 contains a detailed account of the data collection and data analysis process. Chapter 4 provides an accurate description of results in three steps: quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis and discussion of the pragmatic functions of the selected linguistic features of involvement and detachment. Chapter 5 includes a brief summary of the investigation, reviews the main findings, and indicates limitations of the study and possible inputs for further research. The results of the analysis confirm that, while some of the linguistic items examined point toward involvement, others have a detaching effect. I therefore conclude that deictic shields on the pronoun ‘I’ permit the realisation of the involvement/detachment dichotomy in the speech genre of the news interview.

Building democratic institutions in Mexico

The purpose of this study is to explore the process of building democratic institutions in Mexico, to examine how political parties shape the process of democratization, and how this process determines the degree of party system institutionalization.^ The appearance of competitive politics brought new challenges and opportunities to parties in Mexico. The aim was to identify how the broader political and economic environment has challenged Mexico's political party system, and specifically the transformation of Mexico's political party system.^ This research illustrates the logic of the deductive model, beginning with general, theoretical expectations about democratization and the economic reform. The empirical data were analyzed to determine whether the deductive expectations were supported by empirical reality. This study offers a comprehensive analysis that conciliates the 'political opening' that has produced favorable conditions for democratization and social integration, and the 'economic opening' that has counteracted since it generated social exclusionary processes. ^

The multiple dimensions of political trust in democratic Argentina

Why do Argentines continue to support democracy despite distrusting political institutions and politicians? Support for democracy is high even though performance of the regime is poor. One would suspect that poor economic and political performance would open the door for military intervention given the history of Argentina. What changed? What explains variance across the multiple dimensions of political trust, such as trust in the regime, trust in political institutions, and trust in politicians? This dissertation is a case study of political culture through public opinion exploring the multiple dimensions of political trust in Argentina during the 1990s. ^ Variance across the different dimensions of political trust may be an indicator of the rise of a new type of citizens called "critical citizens." Critical citizens are citizens who criticize the regime to obtain democratic reforms but support the ideals of democracy. In established democracies, the rise of critical citizens is explained by a shift in individuals' value priorities towards postmaterialism. Postmaterialism is a cultural change in the direction of values that emphasize self-realization and individual well-being. Postmaterialism influences various social and political attitudes. ^ Because Argentina is experiencing a cultural change and a rise of critical citizens similar to more advanced societies, the theory of postmaterialism generated the main hypothesis to explain the multiple dimensions of political trust. This dissertation also tested an alternative explanation: the multiple dimensions of political trust responded instead to citizens' evaluations of performance. Ultimately, postmaterialism explained trust in the political regime and trust in the political institutions. Contrary to expectations, postmaterialism did not explain trust in the political elites or politicians. Trust in politicians was better explained by the alternative hypothesis, performance. ^ The main method of research was the statistical method supplemented with the comparative method when data were available. Two main databases were used: the World Values Surveys and the Latinobarometer. ^

The unintended [or intended?] political consequences of electoral systems: The case of Bolivia

The present study was concerned with evaluating one basic institution in Bolivian democracy: its electoral system. The study evaluates the impact of electoral systems on the interaction between presidents and assemblies. It sought to determine whether it is possible to have electoral systems that favor multipartism but can also moderate the likelihood of executive-legislative confrontation by producing the necessary conditions for coalition building. ^ This dissertation utilized the case study method as a methodology. Using the case of Bolivia, the research project studied the variations in executive-legislative relations and political outcomes from 1985 to the present through a model of executive-legislative relations that provided a typology of presidents and assemblies based on the strategies available to them to bargain with each other for support. A complementary model that evaluated the state of their inter-institutional interaction was also employed. ^ Results indicated that executive-legislative relations are profoundly influenced by the choice of the electoral system. Similarly, the project showed that although the Bolivian mixed system for legislative elections, and executive formula favor multipartism, these electoral systems do not necessarily engender executive-legislative confrontation in Bolivia. This was mainly due to the congressional election of the president, and the formulas utilized to translate the popular vote into legislative seats. However, the study found that the electoral system has also allowed for anti-systemic forces to emerge and gain political space both within and outside of political institutions. ^ The study found that government coalitions in Bolivia that are promoted by the system of congressional election of the president and the D'Hondt system to allocate legislative seats have helped ameliorate one of the typical problems of presidential systems in Latin America: the presence of a minority government that is blocked in its capacity to govern. This study was limited to evaluating the impact of the electoral system, as the independent variable, on executive-legislative interaction. However, the project revealed a need for more theoretical and empirical work on executive-legislative bargaining models in order to understand how institutional reforms can have an impact on the incentives of presidents and legislators to form coherent coalitions. ^

The political economy of poverty alleviation strategies. The initiative for heavily indebted poor countries in Bolivia: More of the same

In the year 2000, approximately 1.1 billion people lived in extreme poverty while developed countries spent US$600 billion a year on defense. The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative is a recent component of a larger poverty reduction strategy supported by the International Financial Institutions, as well as many developed and developing countries. By implementing lessons of the past fifty years, this program attempts to diminish misery around the globe. As such, it provides debt relief while seeking to enable the poorest countries to simultaneously attain sustainable debt and promote human development. Interest in poverty reduction around the globe reemerged in the 1990s. This study contributes directly to this recent effort by presenting a nuanced approach that builds on the stepping-stones generated by other poverty scholars. To fulfill its goal, this investigation applies a political economy framework. Within this framework, the author conducts an actor-specific analysis. This dissertation addresses the following question: How do domestic and international actors respond to the implementation of poverty alleviation strategies? The author assumes actors desire to maximize their utility calculation and suggests these calculations are based on the player's motivations and external influences. Based on their motivations, the external influences, and the initiative's guidelines, each actor develops a set of expectations. To fulfill those expectations, stake holders utilize one or several strategies. Finally, the actors' ability to achieve their expectations determines each player's assessment of the initiative. The framework described is applied in an in-depth, actor-specific analysis of the HIPC in Bolivia. Bolivia's National Revolution represents the country's first attempt at reducing poverty. Since then, all governments have taken specific steps to combat poverty at the local and national levels. The Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) is one of the most recent macro strategies of this kind. The case study demonstrated that three factors (national ownership, effective sponsorship and the local context) determine the success levels of poverty reduction strategies from abroad. In addition, the investigation clearly shows that poverty reduction is not the sole motivation in the implementation of poverty alleviation strategies. All actors, however, share the dream of poverty reduction.

Ethnic groups and institutions: A study of institutional engineering in four Central and Eastern European countries

The issue of institutional engineering has gained a renewed interest with the democratic transitions of the Central and Eastern European countries, as for some states it has become a matter of state survival. The four countries examined in the study – Macedonia, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria – exemplify the difficulty in establishing a stable democratic society in the context of the resurgence of national identity. The success of ethnonational minorities in achieving the desired policies affirming or expanding their rights as a group was conditioned upon the cohesion of the minority as well as the permissiveness of state institutions in terms of participation and representation of minority members. The Hungarian minorities in Slovakia and Romania, the Turkish minority in Bulgaria, and the Albanian minority in Macedonia, formed their political organizations to represent their interests. However, in some cases the divergence of strategies or goals between factions of the minority group seriously impeded its ability to obtain the desired concessions from the majority. The difficulty in the pursuit of policies favoring the expansion of minority rights was further exacerbated in some of the cases by the impermissiveness of political institutions. The political parties representing the interest of ethnonational minorities were allowed to participate in elections, although not without suspicions about their intent and even strong opposition from majority groups, but participation in elections and subsequent representation in legislative bodies did not translate into adoption of the desired policies. The ethnonational minorities' inability to effectively influence the decision-making process was the result of the inadequacy of democratic institutions to process these demands and channel them through the normal political process in the absence of majority desire to accommodate them. Despite the promise of democratic institutions to bring about a major overhaul of the policies of forceful assimilation and disregard for minority rights, the four cases analyzed in the study demonstrate that in effect ethnonational minorities continued to be at the mercy of the majority, especially if the minority was unable to position itself as a balancing actor.

La démocratie et ses institutions : comment les institutions perçoivent et transforment les questions de politiques publiques

Cette thèse porte sur les fondements philosophiques des institutions démocratiques canadiennes et analyse comment leur conception réelle contribue à les atteindre. Pour passer de la théorie à la pratique, la démocratie doit être institutionnalisée. Les institutions ne sont pas que de simples contraintes sur les actions du gouvernement. Elles incarnent des normes démocratiques. Cependant, les théories démocratiques contemporaines sont souvent abstraites et désincarnées. Alors qu’elles étudient les fondements normatifs de la démocratie en général, elles réfléchissent rarement sur les mécanismes permettant d’atteindre l’idéal démocratique. À l’inverse, la science politique tente de tracer l’ensemble du paysage institutionnel entourant l’action de l’État. Mais l’approche de la science politique a une faiblesse majeure : elle n’offre aucune justification épistémologique ou morale des institutions démocratiques. Cette dichotomie entre les principes et les institutions est trompeuse. Les principes de la démocratie libérale sont incarnés par les institutions. En se concentrant sur les fondements philosophiques des institutions démocratiques et libérales, cette thèse fait revivre une longue tradition d’Aristote à John Stuart Mill et réunissant des penseurs comme Montesquieu et James Madison. Actuellement, la recherche universitaire se détourne encore des questions institutionnelles, sous prétexte qu’elles ne seraient pas assez philosophiques. Cependant, le design institutionnel est une question philosophique. Cette thèse propose des améliorations pour que les institutions démocratiques remplissent leur rôle philosophique de manière plus adéquate. Le suicide médicalement assisté est utilisé comme un exemple de l’influence des institutions sur la démocratie.

La démocratie et ses institutions : comment les institutions perçoivent et transforment les questions de politiques publiques

Cette thèse porte sur les fondements philosophiques des institutions démocratiques canadiennes et analyse comment leur conception réelle contribue à les atteindre. Pour passer de la théorie à la pratique, la démocratie doit être institutionnalisée. Les institutions ne sont pas que de simples contraintes sur les actions du gouvernement. Elles incarnent des normes démocratiques. Cependant, les théories démocratiques contemporaines sont souvent abstraites et désincarnées. Alors qu’elles étudient les fondements normatifs de la démocratie en général, elles réfléchissent rarement sur les mécanismes permettant d’atteindre l’idéal démocratique. À l’inverse, la science politique tente de tracer l’ensemble du paysage institutionnel entourant l’action de l’État. Mais l’approche de la science politique a une faiblesse majeure : elle n’offre aucune justification épistémologique ou morale des institutions démocratiques. Cette dichotomie entre les principes et les institutions est trompeuse. Les principes de la démocratie libérale sont incarnés par les institutions. En se concentrant sur les fondements philosophiques des institutions démocratiques et libérales, cette thèse fait revivre une longue tradition d’Aristote à John Stuart Mill et réunissant des penseurs comme Montesquieu et James Madison. Actuellement, la recherche universitaire se détourne encore des questions institutionnelles, sous prétexte qu’elles ne seraient pas assez philosophiques. Cependant, le design institutionnel est une question philosophique. Cette thèse propose des améliorations pour que les institutions démocratiques remplissent leur rôle philosophique de manière plus adéquate. Le suicide médicalement assisté est utilisé comme un exemple de l’influence des institutions sur la démocratie.

Political transition and structural politicisation : The long shadow of Taiwan's one-party legacy

Väitöskirjatutkimuksessa tarkastellaan Taiwanin politiikkaa ensimmäisen vaalien kautta tapahtuneen vallanvaihdon jälkeen (2000) yhteiskunnan rakenteellisen politisoitumisen näkökulmasta. Koska Taiwanilla siirryttiin verettömästi autoritaarisesta yksipuoluejärjestelmästä monipuoluejärjestelmään sitä on pidetty poliittisen muodonmuutoksen mallioppilaana. Aiempi optimismi Taiwanin demokratisoitumisen suhteen on sittemmin vaihtunut pessimismiin, pitkälti yhteiskunnan voimakkaasta politisoitumisesta johtuen. Tutkimuksessa haetaan selitystä tälle politisoitumiselle. Yhteiskunnan rakenteellisella politisoitumisella tarkoitetaan tilannetta, jossa ”poliittisen” alue kasvaa varsinaisia poliittisia instituutioita laajemmaksi. Rakenteellinen politisoituminen muuttuu helposti yhteiskunnalliseksi ongelmaksi, koska siitä usein seuraa normaalin poliittisen toiminnan (esim. lainsäädännän) jähmettyminen, yhteiskunnan jyrkkä jakautuminen, alhainen kynnys poliittisille konflikteille ja yleisen yhteiskunnallisen luottamuksen alentuminen. Toisin kuin esimerkiksi Itä-Euroopassa, Taiwanissa entinen valtapuolue ei romahtanut poliittisen avautumisen myötä vaan säilytti vahvan rakenteellisen asemansa. Kun valta vaihtui ensimmäisen kerran vaalien kautta, vanha valtapuolue ei ollut valmis luovuttamaan poliittisen järjestelmän ohjaksia käsistään. Alkoi vuosia kestänyt taistelu järjestelmän hallinnasta vanhan ja uuden valtapuolueen välillä, jossa yhteiskunta politisoitui voimakkaasti. Tutkimuksessa Taiwanin yhteiskunnan politisoituminen selitetään useiden rakenteellisten piirteiden yhteisvaikutuksen tuloksena. Tällaisia politisoitumista edistäviä rakentellisia piirteitä ovat hidas poliittinen muutos, joka säilytti vanhat poliittiset jakolinjat ja niihin liittyvät vahvat edut ja intressit; sopimaton perustuslaki; Taiwanin epäselvä kansainvälinen asema ja jakautunut identiteetti; sekä sosiaalinen rakenne, joka helpottaa ihmisten nopeaa mobilisointia poliittiisiin mielenilmauksiin. Tutkimuksessa kiinnitetään huomiota toistaiseksi vähän tutkittuun poliittiseen ilmiöön, joidenkin demokratisoituvien yhteiskuntien voimakkaaseen rakenteelliseen politisoitumiseen. Tutkimuksen pääasiallinen havainto on, että yksipuoluejärjestelmän demokratisoituminen kantaa sisällään rakenteellisen politisoitumisen siemenen, jos entinen valtapuolue ei romahda demokratisoitumisen myötä.

Ensaismo, ação coletiva e Estado nacional : uma metainterpretação de obras selecionadas da literatura Brasiliana

O objetivo da tese é expor o movimento de coordenação coletiva que subjaz a um conjunto selecionado de obras de autores brasileiros da primeira metade do século XX reunidas sob o título Coleção Brasiliana. Sustenta-se a hipótese de que esse grupo de intelectuais interveio regularmente no debate público durante três ou quatro décadas do século passado de forma racional e concertada com vistas a construir no futuro próximo um Estado nacional no Brasil. Se o diagnóstico procede, esteve-se às voltas com um problema de ação coletiva, posto que um Estado de tipo nacional é um bem público. A estratégia de solução intraelite consistiu na criação de uma cultura política de massas baseada na idéia de ?imperativo nacional? que, mobilizando ideologicamente a opinião pública e os governantes, logrou êxito quanto aos objetivos inscritos de antemão em sua retórica: por fim à desordem, restituir a organização da nação e criar instituições políticas congruentes com a realidade do país. Para efeito do trabalho ora apresentado, os processos de state building envolvem, entre os itens de maior importância, a territorialização eficaz, a legitimação da autoridade pública e a organização da solidariedade social. No caso do Brasil, uma vez resolvido o dilema de ação coletiva relativamente aos intelectuais, emergiria mais tarde, em 1937, a estrutura institucional destinada a fixar regras, reduzir incertezas e/ou custos de informação, dotar os atores de expectativas recíprocas, enfim, trazer regularidade e curso estável às trocas entre os indivíduos: o Estado Novo. O trabalho se divide em quatro capítulos, seguidos de considerações finais ligeiras. No Capítulo I, realizo um balanço pessoal sobre a recepção da rationalchoice no meio acadêmico brasileiro, além de chamar a atenção para certas estigmatizações comuns. No Capítulo II, o conceito de racionalidade individual é submetido a exame epistêmico e ontológico não exaustivo. Busco ainda aproximá-lo de aspectos externos que tendem a alterar sua substância na origem. No Capítulo III, ofereço o referencial geral sobre a formação dos estados nacionais, afora indicações rápidas quanto aos desafios que os esperam no século XXI. No Capítulo IV, última parte do texto, observo de maneira panorâmica as etapas de formação do Estado nacional no Brasil para depois discutir o modelo de país que os intelectuais brasilianos tinham em mente para o século XX. Também procuro especificar o método de trabalho (escolha dos autores, organização por tópicos e aplicação da perspectiva neo-institucionalista). As páginas restantes se destinam à exposição das idéias brasilianas. Fecho a tese com uma síntese geral acrescida de análise sobre a coordenação dos intelectuais em torno do projeto de Estado-nação no Brasil

Bicameralism in the Republic of Ireland: The Seanad Abolition Referendum

Whether or not a legislature is uni- or bi-cameral has been found to have important consequences. Ireland's 1937 constitution provided for a directly elected lower chamber (Dáil Éireann) and an indirectly elected upper chamber (Seanad Éireann). With the appointment to government in 2011 of two political parties with a common electoral commitment to abolish bicameralism, the subsequent coalition agreement included a promise to hold a referendum offering voters the option to move to a unicameral parliamentary system. On 4 October 2013, the electorate voted to retain the upper chamber, albeit by a narrow majority of 51.7 per cent, on a turnout of 39.17 per cent. The outcome was arguably surprising, given that opinion polls signalled a plurality of voters favoured abolition, and there was a general public antipathy towards political institutions in the midst of a major economic crisis. Public opinion research suggests that a combination of factors explained voting behaviour, including a lack of interest amongst those who did not vote. A cost savings argument was a significant factor for those favouring abolition, while concerns over government control of the legislative process appear to have been most prominent in the minds of those who voted to retain the upper chamber.

Political Discourse Analysis, Sport and Scottish Independence: Provisional Reflections upon Fairclough and Fairclough's (2012) Analytical Framework.

This paper aims to reflect upon the potential analytical utility of the political discourse analysis framework proposed by Isabela Fairclough and Norman Fairclough (2012). This framework represents the most recent substantive development upon Norman Fairclough's past work situated within the wider school of Critical Discourse Analysis, building upon his influential position this methodological tradition. Central to this development is the additional emphasis placed upon the necessity to conceptualise all political discourse as 'argumentative' in nature, given that political actors are ultimately proposing or refuting particular courses of concrete future action. This paper will therefore apply Fairclough and Fairclough's model to provisional data derived from an ongoing doctoral thesis which considers the nature of political discourse relating to sport, the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and Scottish independence, with an ultimate aim of critically considering the benefits and limitations of applying this analytical framework as a methodological tool within this ongoing study.

The Working Group on Scottish Sport and the Scottish Independence Referendum: an Unrealised Political 'Imaginary'?

In September 2014, a historic referendum on the issue of Scottish independence was held, with the potential to dissolve the political union between Scotland and the other constituent nations of the United Kingdom which had survived intact since the 1707 Act of Union. On a significantly high electoral turnout of 84.6%, the Scottish electorate opted to reject the proposals of the governing party in the devolved Scottish Parliament, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), to create an independent Scottish state, with 55.3% of the electorate voting ‘No’ to Scottish independence against a 44.7% ‘Yes’ vote. In the grand scheme of the Scottish independence referendum campaigns, sports policy remained a somewhat peripheral issue within the arguments forwarded by the Yes Scotland and Better Together campaigns. Nonetheless, developments such as the formation of the 'Sport for Yes' campaign sub-group, the inclusion of sport within the Scottish Government’s White Paper on Scottish independence and the establishment of the Working Group on Scottish Sport demonstrated that the potential implications of independence were still deemed significant enough to merit a degree of policy planning by the Scottish Government (Lafferty, 2014; Scottish Government, 2013; Working Group on Scottish Sport, 2013, 2014). This paper will critically consider the implications of the 'No' vote in the Scottish independence referendum for the latter of these developments, the policy proposals of the Working Group for Scottish Sport. Drawing upon the principles of critical discourse analysis, specifically the analytical framework proposed by Fairclough and Fairclough (2012), the content of this group's proposal will be examined in order to critically explore the policy for Scottish sport it envisaged for an independent Scottish state. The paper will then conclude by reflecting upon the extent to which elements of this political 'imaginary' (Fairclough and Fairclough, 2012) of Scottish sport remain a possibility for future sports policy in Scotland following the eventual 'No' vote in the referendum.