Gaussian process approximations of stochastic differential equations

Stochastic differential equations arise naturally in a range of contexts, from financial to environmental modeling. Current solution methods are limited in their representation of the posterior process in the presence of data. In this work, we present a novel Gaussian process approximation to the posterior measure over paths for a general class of stochastic differential equations in the presence of observations. The method is applied to two simple problems: the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, of which the exact solution is known and can be compared to, and the double-well system, for which standard approaches such as the ensemble Kalman smoother fail to provide a satisfactory result. Experiments show that our variational approximation is viable and that the results are very promising as the variational approximate solution outperforms standard Gaussian process regression for non-Gaussian Markov processes.

Variational mean-field algorithm for efficient inference in large systems of stochastic differential equations

This work introduces a Gaussian variational mean-field approximation for inference in dynamical systems which can be modeled by ordinary stochastic differential equations. This new approach allows one to express the variational free energy as a functional of the marginal moments of the approximating Gaussian process. A restriction of the moment equations to piecewise polynomial functions, over time, dramatically reduces the complexity of approximate inference for stochastic differential equation models and makes it comparable to that of discrete time hidden Markov models. The algorithm is demonstrated on state and parameter estimation for nonlinear problems with up to 1000 dimensional state vectors and compares the results empirically with various well-known inference methodologies.

Fractional Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov type Equations and their Associated Stochastic Differential Equations

MSC 2010: 26A33, 35R11, 35R60, 35Q84, 60H10 Dedicated to 80-th anniversary of Professor Rudolf Gorenflo

Stable strong order 1.0 schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations

The Balanced method was introduced as a class of quasi-implicit methods, based upon the Euler-Maruyama scheme, for solving stiff stochastic differential equations. We extend the Balanced method to introduce a class of stable strong order 1. 0 numerical schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations. We derive convergence results for this class of numerical schemes. We illustrate the asymptotic stability of this class of schemes is illustrated and is compared with contemporary schemes of strong order 1. 0. We present some evidence on parametric selection with respect to minimising the error convergence terms. Furthermore we provide a convergence result for general Balanced style schemes of higher orders.

High strong order explicit Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations

The pioneering work of Runge and Kutta a hundred years ago has ultimately led to suites of sophisticated numerical methods suitable for solving complex systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations. However, in many modelling situations, the appropriate representation is a stochastic differential equation and here numerical methods are much less sophisticated. In this paper a very general class of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods is presented and much more efficient classes of explicit methods than previous extant methods are constructed. In particular, a method of strong order 2 with a deterministic component based on the classical Runge-Kutta method is constructed and some numerical results are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Adams-Type Methods for the Numerical Solution of Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) arise fi om physical systems where the parameters describing the system can only be estimated or are subject to noise. There has been much work done recently on developing numerical methods for solving SDEs. This paper will focus on stability issues and variable stepsize implementation techniques for numerically solving SDEs effectively. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Five-stage Milstein methods for SDEs

In this paper, we consider the problem of computing numerical solutions for Ito stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The five-stage Milstein (FSM) methods are constructed for solving SDEs driven by an m-dimensional Wiener process. The FSM methods are fully explicit methods. It is proved that the FSM methods are convergent with strong order 1 for SDEs driven by an m-dimensional Wiener process. The analysis of stability (with multidimensional Wiener process) shows that the mean-square stable regions of the FSM methods are unbounded. The analysis of stability shows that the mean-square stable regions of the methods proposed in this paper are larger than the Milstein method and three-stage Milstein methods.

First-passage failure of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems

The first-passage failure of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian si-stems (multidegree-of-freedom integrable Hamiltonian systems subject to light dampings and weakly random excitations) is investigated. The motion equations of such a system are first reduced to a set of averaged Ito stochastic differential equations by using the stochastic averaging method for quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems. Then, a backward Kolmogorov equation governing the conditional reliability function and a set of generalized Pontryagin equations governing the conditional moments of first-passage time are established. Finally, the conditional reliability function, and the conditional probability density and moments of first-passage time are obtained by solving these equations with suitable initial and boundary conditions. Two examples are given to illustrate the proposed procedure and the results from digital simulation are obtained to verify the effectiveness of the procedure.

First-passage time of Duffing oscillator under combined harmonic and white-noise excitations

The first-passage time of Duffing oscillator under combined harmonic and white-noise excitations is studied. The equation of motion of the system is first reduced to a set of averaged Ito stochastic differential equations by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, a backward Kolmogorov equation governing the conditional reliability function and a set of generalized Pontryagin equations governing the conditional moments of first-passage time are established. Finally, the conditional reliability function, and the conditional probability density and moments of first-passage time are obtained by solving the backward Kolmogorov equation and generalized Pontryagin equations with suitable initial and boundary conditions. Numerical results for two resonant cases with several sets of parameter values are obtained and the analytical results are verified by using those from digital simulation.

Numerical simulation of stochastic ordinary differential equations in biomathematical modelling

In this work we discuss the effects of white and coloured noise perturbations on the parameters of a mathematical model of bacteriophage infection introduced by Beretta and Kuang in [Math. Biosc. 149 (1998) 57]. We numerically simulate the strong solutions of the resulting systems of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SDEs), with respect to the global error, by means of numerical methods of both Euler-Taylor expansion and stochastic Runge-Kutta type.

A bound on the maximum strong order of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations

In Burrage and Burrage [1] it was shown that by introducing a very general formulation for stochastic Runge-Kutta methods, the previous strong order barrier of order one could be broken without having to use higher derivative terms. In particular, methods of strong order 1.5 were developed in which a Stratonovich integral of order one and one of order two were present in the formulation. In this present paper, general order results are proven about the maximum attainable strong order of these stochastic Runge-Kutta methods (SRKs) in terms of the order of the Stratonovich integrals appearing in the Runge-Kutta formulation. In particular, it will be shown that if an s-stage SRK contains Stratonovich integrals up to order p then the strong order of the SRK cannot exceed min{(p + 1)/2, (s - 1)/2), p greater than or equal to 2, s greater than or equal to 3 or 1 if p = 1.