Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Experimental observations of rapid maize streak virus evolution reveal a strand-specific nucleotide substitution bias

Background. Recent reports have indicated that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses in the taxonomic families Geminiviridae, Parvoviridae and Anellovirus may be evolving at rates of ∼10-4 substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). These evolution rates are similar to those of RNA viruses and are surprisingly high given that ssDNA virus replication involves host DNA polymerases with fidelities approximately 10 000 times greater than those of error-prone viral RNA polymerases. Although high ssDNA virus evolution rates were first suggested in evolution experiments involving the geminivirus maize streak virus (MSV), the evolution rate of this virus has never been accurately measured. Also, questions regarding both the mechanistic basis and adaptive value of high geminivirus mutation rates remain unanswered. Results. We determined the short-term evolution rate of MSV using full genome analysis of virus populations initiated from cloned genomes. Three wild type viruses and three defective artificial chimaeric viruses were maintained in planta for up to five years and displayed evolution rates of between 7.4 × 10-4 and 7.9 × 10-4 subs/site/year. Conclusion. These MSV evolution rates are within the ranges observed for other ssDNA viruses and RNA viruses. Although no obvious evidence of positive selection was detected, the uneven distribution of mutations within the defective virus genomes suggests that some of the changes may have been adaptive. We also observed inter-strand nucleotide substitution imbalances that are consistent with a recent proposal that high mutation rates in geminiviruses (and possibly ssDNA viruses in general) may be due to mutagenic processes acting specifically on ssDNA molecules. © 2008 Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Effect of aging time and Al substitution on the morphology of aluminous goethite

Goethite and Al-substituted goethite were synthesized from the reaction between ferric nitrate and/or aluminum nitrate and potassium hydroxide. XRF, XRD, TEM with EDS were used to characterize the chemical composition, phase and lattice parameters, and morphology of the synthesized products. The results show that d(020) decreases from 4.953 to 4.949 Å and the b dimension decreases from 9.951 Å to 9.906 Å when the aging time increases from 6 days to 42 days for 9.09 mol% Al-substituted goethite. A sample with 9.09 mol% Al substitution in Al-substituted goethite was prepared by a rapid co-precipitation method. In the sample, 13.45 mol%, 12.31 mol% and 5.85 mol% Al substitution with a crystal size of 163, 131, and 45 nm are observed as shown in the TEM images and EDS. The crystal size of goethite is positively related to the degree of Al substitution according to the TEM images and EDS results. Thus, this methodology is proved to be effective to distinguish the morphology of goethite and Al substituted goethite.

Kinetic study of goethite dehydration and the effect of aluminium substitution on the dehydrate

Goethite and Al-substituted goethite were synthesized and were characterized using XRD and XRF. The kinetic study of goethite dehydrate was investigated by TG and DTG at different heating rates (2, 5, 10, 15, 20 ◦C/min) and the effect of Al substitution for Fe on dehydrate was studied. The results showed that two types of absorbed water with the same Ed values of 3.4, 6.2 kJ/mol were confirmed on goethite and Alsubstituted goethite. Three types of hydroxyl units were proved, one being on the surface and the other two being in the structure of goethite. The substitution of Al for Fe in the structure of goethite decreases the desorption rate of hydroxyl, increases the dehydroxylation temperature, broadens the desorption peaks in DTG curves, and improves the Ed values from 19.4, 20.4, 26.1 kJ/mol to 21.6, 30, 33.6 kJ/mol when Al substitution comes to 9.1%.

Base-induced decomposition of alkyl hydroperoxides in the gas phase. Part 3. Kinetics and dynamics in HO-+CH3OOH, C2H5OOH, and tert-C4H9OOH reactions

The E-CO(2) elimination reactions of alkyl hydroperoxides proceed via abstraction of an (x-hydrogen by a base: X- + (RRHCOOH)-R-1-H-2 -> HX + (RRC)-R-1-C-2=O + HO-. Efficiencies and product distributions for the reactions of the hydroxide anion with methyl, ethyl, and tert-butyl hydroperoxides are studied in the gas phase. On the basis of experiments using three isotopic analogues, HO- + CH3OOH, HO- + CD3OOH, and H18O- + CH3OOH. the overall intrinsic reaction efficiency is determined to be 80% or greater. The E(CO)2 decomposition is facile for these methylperoxide reactions, and predominates over competing proton transfer at the hydroperoxide moiety. The CH3CH2OOH reaction displays a similar E(CO)2 reactivity, whereas proton transfer and the formation of HOO- are the exclusive pathways observed for (CH3)(3)COOH, which has no (x-hydrogen. All results are consistent with the E-CO(2) mechanism, transition state structure, and reaction energy diagrams calculated using the hybrid density functional B3LYP approach. Isotope labeling for HO- + CH3OOH also reveals some interaction between H2O and HO- within the E(CO)2 product complex [H2O center dot center dot center dot CH2=O center dot center dot center dot HO-]. There is little evidence, however. for the formation of the most exothermic products H2O + CH2(OH)O-, which would arise from nuclephilic condensation of CH2=O and HO-. The results suggest that the product dynamics are not totally statistical but are rather direct after the E-CO(2) transition state. The larger HO- + CH3CH2OOH system displays more statistical behavior during complex dissociation.

The loss of carbon dioxide from activated perbenzoate anions in the gas phase : Unimolecular rearrangement via epoxidation of the benzene ring

The unimolecular reactivities of a range of perbenzoate anions (X-C6H5CO3-), including the perbenzoate anion itself (X=H), nitroperbenzoates (X=para-, meta-, ortho-NO2), and methoxyperbenzoates (X=para-, meta-OCH3) were investigated in the gas phase by electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. The collision-induced dissociation mass spectra of these compounds reveal product ions consistent with a major loss of carbon dioxide requiring unimolecular rearrangement of the perbenzoate anion prior to fragmentation. Isotopic labeling of the perbenzoate anion supports rearrangement via an initial nucleophilic aromatic substitution at the ortho carbon of the benzene ring, while data from substituted perbenzoates indicate that nucleophilic attack at the ipso carbon can be induced in the presence of electron-withdrawing moieties at the ortho and para positions. Electronic structure calculations carried out at the B3LYP/6311++G(d,p) level of theory reveal two competing reaction pathways for decarboxylation of perbenzoate anions via initial nucleophilic substitution at the ortho and ipso positions, respectively. Somewhat surprisingly, however, the computational data indicate that the reaction proceeds in both instances via epoxidation of the benzene ring with decarboxylation resulting-at least initially-in the formation of oxepin or benzene oxide anions rather than the energetically favored phenoxide anion. As such, this novel rearrangement of perbenzoate anions provides an intriguing new pathway for epoxidation of the usually inert benzene ring.

Does energy substitution affect carbon dioxide emissions : income relationship?

Considerable discussion has taken place during the last decade regarding the role of economic growth in determining environmental quality. Using data from 30 OECD countries for the period 1960-2003 and the nonparametric method of generalized additive models, which enables us to use flexible functional forms, this paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for carbon dioxide (CO2). We find that the reduction of coal share in energy use has a significant effect on CO2. Our results imply that economic growth is not sufficient to decrease CO2 emissions.

A Chlamydia trachomatis strain with a chemically generated amino acid substitution (P370L) in the cthtrA gene shows reduced elementary body production

Background Chlamydia (C.) trachomatis is the most prevalent bacterial sexually transmitted infection worldwide and the leading cause of preventable blindness. Genetic approaches to investigate C. trachomatis have been only recently developed due to the organism’s intracellular developmental cycle. HtrA is a critical stress response serine protease and chaperone for many bacteria and in C. trachomatis has been previously shown to be important for heat stress and the replicative phase of development using a chemical inhibitor of the CtHtrA activity. In this study, chemically-induced SNVs in the cthtrA gene that resulted in amino acid substitutions (A240V, G475E, and P370L) were identified and characterized. Methods SNVs were initially biochemically characterized in vitro using recombinant protein techniques to confirm a functional impact on proteolysis. The C. trachomatis strains containing the SNVs with marked reductions in proteolysis were investigated in cell culture to identify phenotypes that could be linked to CtHtrA function. Results The strain harboring the SNV with the most marked impact on proteolysis (cthtrAP370L) was detected to have a significant reduction in the production of infectious elementary bodies. Conclusions This provides genetic evidence that CtHtrA is critical for the C. trachomatis developmental cycle.

Mixture models of nucleotide sequence evolution that account for heterogeneity in the substitution process across sites and across lineages

Molecular phylogenetic studies of homologous sequences of nucleotides often assume that the underlying evolutionary process was globally stationary, reversible, and homogeneous (SRH), and that a model of evolution with one or more site-specific and time-reversible rate matrices (e.g., the GTR rate matrix) is enough to accurately model the evolution of data over the whole tree. However, an increasing body of data suggests that evolution under these conditions is an exception, rather than the norm. To address this issue, several non-SRH models of molecular evolution have been proposed, but they either ignore heterogeneity in the substitution process across sites (HAS) or assume it can be modeled accurately using the distribution. As an alternative to these models of evolution, we introduce a family of mixture models that approximate HAS without the assumption of an underlying predefined statistical distribution. This family of mixture models is combined with non-SRH models of evolution that account for heterogeneity in the substitution process across lineages (HAL). We also present two algorithms for searching model space and identifying an optimal model of evolution that is less likely to over- or underparameterize the data. The performance of the two new algorithms was evaluated using alignments of nucleotides with 10 000 sites simulated under complex non-SRH conditions on a 25-tipped tree. The algorithms were found to be very successful, identifying the correct HAL model with a 75% success rate (the average success rate for assigning rate matrices to the tree's 48 edges was 99.25%) and, for the correct HAL model, identifying the correct HAS model with a 98% success rate. Finally, parameter estimates obtained under the correct HAL-HAS model were found to be accurate and precise. The merits of our new algorithms were illustrated with an analysis of 42 337 second codon sites extracted from a concatenation of 106 alignments of orthologous genes encoded by the nuclear genomes of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, S. paradoxus, S. mikatae, S. kudriavzevii, S. castellii, S. kluyveri, S. bayanus, and Candida albicans. Our results show that second codon sites in the ancestral genome of these species contained 49.1% invariable sites, 39.6% variable sites belonging to one rate category (V1), and 11.3% variable sites belonging to a second rate category (V2). The ancestral nucleotide content was found to differ markedly across these three sets of sites, and the evolutionary processes operating at the variable sites were found to be non-SRH and best modeled by a combination of eight edge-specific rate matrices (four for V1 and four for V2). The number of substitutions per site at the variable sites also differed markedly, with sites belonging to V1 evolving slower than those belonging to V2 along the lineages separating the seven species of Saccharomyces. Finally, sites belonging to V1 appeared to have ceased evolving along the lineages separating S. cerevisiae, S. paradoxus, S. mikatae, S. kudriavzevii, and S. bayanus, implying that they might have become so selectively constrained that they could be considered invariable sites in these species.

Highly efficient C-8 oxidation of substituted xanthines with substitution at the 1-, 3-, and 7- positions using biocatalysts

A bacterial consortium consisting of strains belongings to the genus Klebsiella and Rhodococcus quantitatively converts 1-, 3- and 7-substituted xanthines to their respective 8-oxo compounds.

Metabolite mobilization in the stem galls of Parthenium hysterophorus induced by Epiblema strenuana inferred from the signatures of isotopic carbon and nitrogen and concentrations of total non-structural carbohydrates

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) is a weed of national significance in Australia. Among the several arthropod agents introduced into Australia to control populations of P. hysterophorus biologically, Epiblema strenuana Walker (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is the most widespread and abundant agent. By intercepting the normal transport mechanisms of P. hysterophorus, the larvae of E. strenuana drain nutrients, other metabolic products, and energy, and place the host plant under intense metabolic stress. In this study, determinations of total non-structural carbohydrates (TNC) levels and carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of fixed products in different parts of the plant tissue, including the gall, have been made to establish the function of gall as a sink for the nutrients. Values of δ13C and δ15N in galls were significantly different than those in proximal and distal stems, whereas the TNC levels were insignificant, when measured in the total population of P. hysterophorus, regardless of plant age. However, carbon, nitrogen, and TNC signatures presented significant results, when assayed in different developmental stages of P. hysterophorus. Carbon isotope ratios in galls were consistently more negative than those from the compared plant organs. Nitrogen isotope ratios in galls, on the contrary, were either similar to or less negative than the compared plant organs, especially within a single host-plant stage population (i.e., either rosette, preflowering, or flowering stage). TNC levels varied within compared plant populations. The stem distal to the gall functioned more efficiently as a nodal channel than the stem proximal to the gall, especially in the translocation of nitrogenous nutrients. Our findings indicate that the gall induced by E. strenuana functions as a sink for the assayed nutrients, although some variations have been observed in the patterns of nutrient mobilization. By creating a sink for the nutrients in the gall, E. strenuana is able to place the overall plant metabolism under stress, and this ability indicates E. strenuana has the necessary potential for use as a biological-control agent.