Inbreeding depression for various traits in two cultured populations of the American bay scallop, Argopecten irradians irradians Lamarck (1819) introduced into China

This paper examines the effect of inbreeding level of population on the magnitude of inbreeding depression expressed by comparing them between two cultured populations (A and B) in the hermaphroditic animal of the bay scallop Argopecten irradians irradians. Population A is expected to have less genetic variations and higher inbreeding level due to longer cultured history (20 generations) and less "ancestral" individuals (26 individuals) than population B due to shorter cultured history (4 generations) and more "ancestral" individuals (406 individuals). Two groups within each population were produced, one using self-fertilization and one using mass-mating within the same population. Selfed offspring (AS and BS) from two populations both had lower fitness components than their mass-mated counterparts (AM and BM) and exhibited inbreeding depression for all examined traits, e.g. lower hatching, less viability and slower growth, indicating that inbreeding depression is a common feature in this animal. Fitness components in all traits of offspring from population A significantly differed those from population B and the magnitude of inbreeding depression for all traits in population A with higher inbreeding level was significantly smaller than that in population B with lower inbreeding level, indicating that both fitness components and magnitude of inbreeding depression were significantly affected by inbreeding level of populations and genetic load harbored in population A may be partially purged through inbreeding. Moreover, the magnitude of inbreeding depression in the two populations both varied among traits and life history stages. The present results support the partial-dominance hypothesis of inbreeding depression. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Theoretical Dynamics of Experimental Populations of Introduced and Native Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Equilibrium dynamics in experimental populations of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) and C. putoria (Wiedemann), which have recently invaded the Americas, and the native species Cochliomyia macellaria (F.), were investigated using nonlinear difference equations. A theoretical analysis of the mathematical model using bifurcation theory established the combination of demographic parameters responsible for producing shifts in blowfly population dynamics from stable equilibria to bounded cycles and aperiodic behavior. Mathematical modeling shows that the populations of the 2 introduced Chrysomya species will form stable oscillations with numbers fluctuating 3-4 times in successive generations. However, in the native species C. macellaria, the dynamics is characterized by damping oscillations in population size, leading to a stable population level.

Rapid divergence in physiological and life-history traits between northern and southern populations of the British introduced neo-species, Senecio squalidus

Alien plants provide a unique opportunity to study evolution in novel environments, but relatively little is known about the extent to which they become locally adapted to different environments across their new range. Here, we compare northern and southern populations of the introduced species Senecio squalidus in Britain; S. squalidus has been in southern Britain for approximately 200 years and reached Scotland only about 50 years ago. We conducted common garden experiments at sites in the north and south of the species’ range in Britain. We also conducted glasshouse and growth chamber experiments to test the hypothesis that southern genotypes flower later, are more drought-tolerant, germinate and establish better at warmer temperatures, and are less sensitive to cold stress than their more northern counterparts. Results from the common garden experiments are largely consistent with the hypothesis of rapid adaptive divergence of populations of the species within the introduced range, with genotypes typically showing a home-site advantage. Results from the glasshouse and growth chamber experiments demonstrate adaptive divergence in ability to tolerate drought stress and high temperatures, as well as in phenology. In particular, southern genotypes were more tolerant of dry conditions and high temperatures and they flowered later than northern genotypes. Our results show that rapid local adaptation can occur in alien species, and they have implications for our understanding of the ecological genetics of range expansion of introduced weeds.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S.Madagascariensis)

Abstract The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Look before you leap : a confidence-based method for selecting species criticality while avoiding negative populations in τ-leaping

The stochastic simulation algorithm was introduced by Gillespie and in a different form by Kurtz. There have been many attempts at accelerating the algorithm without deviating from the behavior of the simulated system. The crux of the explicit τ-leaping procedure is the use of Poisson random variables to approximate the number of occurrences of each type of reaction event during a carefully selected time period, τ. This method is acceptable providing the leap condition, that no propensity function changes “significantly” during any time-step, is met. Using this method there is a possibility that species numbers can, artificially, become negative. Several recent papers have demonstrated methods that avoid this situation. One such method classifies, as critical, those reactions in danger of sending species populations negative. At most, one of these critical reactions is allowed to occur in the next time-step. We argue that the criticality of a reactant species and its dependent reaction channels should be related to the probability of the species number becoming negative. This way only reactions that, if fired, produce a high probability of driving a reactant population negative are labeled critical. The number of firings of more reaction channels can be approximated using Poisson random variables thus speeding up the simulation while maintaining the accuracy. In implementing this revised method of criticality selection we make use of the probability distribution from which the random variable describing the change in species number is drawn. We give several numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new method.

Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites – grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.

Genetic diversity of cultured and wild populations of the giant freshwater prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man, 1879) based on microsatellite analysis

Freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) culture in the Western Hemisphere is primarily, if not entirely, derived from 36 individual prawns originally introduced to Hawaii from Malaysia in 1965 and 1966. Little information is available regarding genetic variation within and among cultured prawn stocks worldwide. The goal of the current study was to characterize genetic diversity in various prawn populations with emphasis on those cultured in North America. Five microsatellite loci were screened to estimate genetic diversity in two wild (Myanmar and India-wild) and seven cultured (Hawaii-1, Hawaii-2, India-cultured, Israel, Kentucky, Mississippi and Texas) populations. Average allelic richness ranged from 3.96 (Israel) to 20.45 (Myanmar). Average expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.580 (Israel) to 0.935 (Myanmar). Many of the cultured populations exhibited reduced genetic diversity when compared with the Myanmar and the India-cultured populations. Significant deficiency in heterozygotes was detected in the India-cultured, Mississippi and Kentucky populations (overall Fis estimated of 0.053, 0.067 and 0.108 respectively) reflecting moderate levels of inbreeding. Overall estimate of fixation index (Fst = 0.1569) revealed moderately high levels of differentiation among the populations. Outcome of this study provide a baseline assessment of genetic diversity in some available strains that will be useful for the development of breeding programmes.

The risk of pollen-mediated gene flow from exotic Corymbia plantations into native Corymbia populations in Australia

Sectors of the forest plantation industry in Australia are set to expand in the near future using species or hybrids of the spotted gums (Corymbia, Section Politaria). Plantations of these taxa have already been introduced across temperate and subtropical Australia, representing locally exotic introductions from native stands in Queensland and New South Wales. A literature review was undertaken to provide insights into the potential for pollen-mediated gene flow from these plantations into native populations. Three factors suggest that such gene flow is likely; (1) interspecific hybridisation within the genus has frequently been recorded, including between distantly related species from different sections, (2) apparent high levels of vertebrate pollinator activity may result in plantation pollen being moved over hundreds of kilometres, (3) much of the plantation estate is being established among closely related taxa and therefore few barriers to gene flow are expected. Across Australia, 20 of the 100 native Corymbia taxa were found to have regional level co-occurrence with plantations. These were located most notably within regions of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland, however, co-occurrence was also found in south-west Western Australia and eastern Victoria. The native species found to have co-occurrence were then assessed for the presence of reproductive barriers at each step in the process of gene flow that may reduce the number of species at risk even further. The available data suggest three risk categories exist for Corymbia. The highest risk was for gene flow from plantations of spotted gums to native populations of spotted gums. This was based on the expected limited existence of pre- and post-zygotic barriers, substantial long-distance pollen dispersal and an apparent broad period of flowering in Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata plantations. The following risk category focussed on gene flow from Corymbia torelliana × C. c. variegata hybrid plantations into native C. c. variegata, as the barriers associated with the production and establishment of F1 hybrids have been circumvented. For the lowest risk category, Corymbia plantations may present a risk to other non-spotted gum species, however, further investigation of the particular cross-combinations is required. A list of research directions is provided to better quantify these risks. Empirical data will need to be combined within a risk assessment framework that will not only estimate the likelihood of exotic gene flow, but also consider the conservation status/value of the native populations. In addition, the potential impacts of pollen flow from plantations will need to be weighed up against their various economic and environmental benefits.

Damage potential of an introduced biological control agent Agonosoma trilineatum (F.) on bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.)

The seed-feeding jewel bug, Agonosoma trilineatum (F.), is an introduced biological control agent for bellyache bush, Jatropha gossypiifolia L. To quantify the damage potential of this agent, shadehouse experiments were conducted with individual bellyache bush plants exposed to a range of jewel bug densities (0, 6 or 24 jewel bugs/plant). The level of abortion of both immature and mature seed capsules and impacts on seed weight and seed viability were recorded in an initial short-term study. The ability of the jewel bug to survive and cause sustained damage was then investigated by measuring seed production, the survival of adults and nymph density across three 6-month cycles. The level of seed capsule abortion caused by the jewel bug was significantly affected by the maturity status of capsules and the density of insects present. Immature capsules were most susceptible and capsule abortion increased with jewel bug density. Similarly, on average, the insects reduced the viability of bellyache bush seeds by 79% and 89% at low and high densities, respectively. However, sustaining jewel bug populations for prolonged periods proved difficult. Adult survival at the end of three 6-month cycles averaged 11% and associated reductions in viable seed production ranged between 55% and 77%. These results suggest that the jewel bug has the potential to reduce the number of viable seeds entering the soil seed bank provided populations can be established and maintained at sufficiently high densities.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S. madagascariensis).

The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Rapid Global Expansion of the Fungal Disease Chytridiomycosis into Declining and Healthy Amphibian Populations.

The fungal disease chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is enigmatic because it occurs globally in both declining and apparently healthy (non-declining) amphibian populations. This distribution has fueled debate concerning whether, in sites where it has recently been found, the pathogen was introduced or is endemic. In this study, we addressed the molecular population genetics of a global collection of fungal strains from both declining and healthy amphibian populations using DNA sequence variation from 17 nuclear loci and a large fragment from the mitochondrial genome. We found a low rate of DNA polymorphism, with only two sequence alleles detected at each locus, but a high diversity of diploid genotypes. Half of the loci displayed an excess of heterozygous genotypes, consistent with a primarily clonal mode of reproduction. Despite the absence of obvious sex, genotypic diversity was high (44 unique genotypes out of 59 strains). We provide evidence that the observed genotypic variation can be generated by loss of heterozygosity through mitotic recombination. One strain isolated from a bullfrog possessed as much allelic diversity as the entire global sample, suggesting the current epidemic can be traced back to the outbreak of a single clonal lineage. These data are consistent with the current chytridiomycosis epidemic resulting from a novel pathogen undergoing a rapid and recent range expansion. The widespread occurrence of the same lineage in both healthy and declining populations suggests that the outcome of the disease is contingent on environmental factors and host resistance.

Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

The effects of copayment policies on adherence to prescription medicines in publicly insured populations

Introduction: Copayments for prescriptions are associated with decreased adherence to medicines resulting in increased health service utilisation, morbidity and mortality. In October 2010 a 50c copayment per prescription item was introduced on the General Medical Services (GMS) scheme in Ireland, the national public health insurance programme for low-income and older people. The copayment was increased to €1.50 per prescription item in January 2013. To date, the impact of these copayments on adherence to prescription medicines on the GMS scheme has not been assessed. Given that the GMS population comprises more than 40% of the Irish population, this presents an important public health problem. The aim of this thesis was to assess the impact of two prescription copayments, 50c and €1.50, on adherence to medicines.Methods: In Chapter 2 the published literature was systematically reviewed with meta-analysis to a) develop evidence on cost-sharing for prescriptions and adherence to medicines and b) develop evidence for an alternative policy option; removal of copayments. The core research question of this thesis was addressed by a large before and after longitudinal study, with comparator group, using the national pharmacy claims database. New users of essential and less-essential medicines were included in the study with sample sizes ranging from 7,007 to 136,111 individuals in different medication groups. Segmented regression was used with generalised estimating equations to allow for correlations between repeated monthly measurements of adherence. A qualitative study involving 24 individuals was conducted to assess patient attitudes towards the 50c copayment policy. The qualitative and quantitative findings were integrated in the discussion chapter of the thesis. The vast majority of the literature on this topic area is generated in North America, therefore a test of generalisability was carried out in Chapter 5 by comparing the impact of two similar copayment interventions on adherence, one in the U.S. and one in Ireland. The method used to measure adherence in Chapters 3 and 5 was validated in Chapter 6. Results: The systematic review with meta-analysis demonstrated an 11% (95% CI 1.09 to 1.14) increased odds of non-adherence when publicly insured populations were exposed to copayments. The second systematic review found moderate but variable improvements in adherence after removal/reduction of copayments in a general population. The core paper of this thesis found that both the 50c and €1.50 copayments on the GMS scheme were associated with larger reductions in adherence to less-essential medicines than essential medicines directly after the implementation of policies. An important exception to this pattern was observed; adherence to anti-depressant medications declined by a larger extent than adherence to other essential medicines after both copayments. The cross country comparison indicated that North American evidence on cost-sharing for prescriptions is not automatically generalisable to the Irish setting. Irish patients had greater immediate decreases of -5.3% (95% CI -6.9 to -3.7) and -2.8% (95% CI -4.9 to -0.7) in adherence to anti-hypertensives and anti-hyperlipidaemic medicines, respectively, directly after the policy changes, relative to their U.S. counterparts. In the long term, however, the U.S. and Irish populations had similar behaviours. The concordance study highlighted the possibility of a measurement bias occurring for the measurement of adherence to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in Chapter 3. Conclusions: This thesis has presented two reviews of international cost-sharing policies, an assessment of the generalisability of international evidence and both qualitative and quantitative examinations of cost-sharing policies for prescription medicines on the GMS scheme in Ireland. It was found that the introduction of a 50c copayment and its subsequent increase to €1.50 on the GMS scheme had a larger impact on adherence to less-essential medicines relative to essential medicines, with the exception of anti-depressant medications. This is in line with policy objectives to reduce moral hazard and is therefore demonstrative of the value of such policies. There are however some caveats. The copayment now stands at €2.50 per prescription item. The impact of this increase in copayment has yet to be assessed which is an obvious point for future research. Careful monitoring for adverse effects in socio-economically disadvantaged groups within the GMS population is also warranted. International evidence can be applied to the Irish setting to aid in future decision making in this area, but not without placing it in the local context first. Patients accepted the introduction of the 50c charge, however did voice concerns over a rising price. The challenge for policymakers is to find the ‘optimal copayment’ – whereby moral hazard is decreased, but access to essential chronic disease medicines that provide advantages at the population level is not deterred. This evidence presented in this thesis will be utilisable for future policy-making in Ireland.

Factors influencing the distribution of native and introduced Gammarus spp. in Irish river systems

Populations of Gammarus duebeni celticus, previously the only amphipod species resident in the rivers of the Lough Neagh catchment, N. Ireland, have been subjected to invasion by G. pulex from the British mainland. Numerous previous studies have investigated the potential behavioural mechanisms, principally differential mutual predation, underlying the replacement of G. d. celticus by G. pulex in Irish waters, and the mutually exclusive distributions of these species in Britain and mainland Europe. However, the relative degree of influence of abiotic versus biotic factors in structuring these amphipod communities remains unresolved. This study used principal component analysis (PCA) to distinguish physico-chemical parameters that have significant roles in determining the current distribution of G. pulex relative to G. d. celticus in L. Neagh rivers. We show that the original domination of rivers by the native G. d, celticus has changed radically, with many sites in several rivers containing either both species or only G. pulex. G. pulex was more abundant than the G. d. celticus in sites with low dissolved oxygen levels. This was reflected in the macroinvertebrate assemblages associated with G. pulex in these sites, which tended to be those tolerant of low biological water quality. The present study thus emphasizes the importance of the habitat template, particularly water quality, for Gammarus spp. interactions. If rivers become increasingly stressed by organic pollution, it is probable the range expansion of G. pulex will continue. Because these two species are not ecological equivalents, the outcomes of G. pulex incursions into G. d. celticus sites may ultimately depend on the prevailing physico-chemical regimes in each site.