Short-term wind forecasting for energy resources scheduling

This paper proposes a wind power forecasting methodology based on two methods: direct wind power forecasting and wind speed forecasting in the first phase followed by wind power forecasting using turbines characteristics and the aforementioned wind speed forecast. The proposed forecasting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, namely with a time horizon of 5 minutes. This intraday model supports distribution network operators in the short-term scheduling problem, in the smart grid context. A case study using a real database of 12 months recorded from a Portuguese wind power farm was used. The results show that the straightforward methodology can be applied in the intraday model with high wind speed and wind power accuracy. The wind power forecast direct method shows better performance than wind power forecast using turbine characteristics and wind speed forecast obtained in first phase.

Análise do mercado de serviços de regulação de frequência secundária e terciária no sistema eléctrico português

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo Energia

Short-term Wind Forecasting to Support Virtual Power Player Operation

This paper proposes a wind speed forecasting model that contributes to the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for Energy Resource Man-agement in a distribution power network, with intensive use of wind based power generation. The proposed fore-casting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, name-ly with a time horizon of 10 minutes. A case study using a real database from the meteoro-logical station installed in the GECAD renewable energy lab was used. A new wind speed forecasting model has been implemented and it estimated accuracy was evalu-ated and compared with a previous developed forecast-ing model. Using as input attributes the information of the wind speed concerning the previous 3 hours enables to obtain results with high accuracy for the wind short-term forecasting.

Scientific research: identify credible sources and use them correctly

Scientific research seminar within CICE mini summer school 25 june

Terrorismo

This thesis’ goal is to study the relationship between the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, notably the hypotheses that the Islamic State derives from Al-Qaeda. The topic to be developed in the following pages is based in reliable sources so that we can obtain the most accurate possible conclusions. In preparation of this report, several quotes were used in order to present correct settings and make logical deductions based on documents. It aims to be a modest contribution to a reflection on the theme, which is addressed in a very general way. Concepts of terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism are addressed in the thesis. Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the response to terrorism are presented, with the aim of understanding the degree of complexity underlying the Islamic State.

Prácticas comunicativas forenses: Las relaciones intertextuales en el examen de testigos. Forensic communicative practices: intertextual relations in examination of witnesses.

Inscripto en el análisis del discurso interaccional de tradición angloamericana y optando por un abordaje metodológico etnográfico, este proyecto plantea investigar las relaciones entre textos orales y entre textos orales y escritos vinculados en cadenas textuales en un acontecimiento comunicativo institucional en el que tales relaciones tienen consecuencias directas en la confiabilidad de la información e intervienen en la construcción del conocimiento oficial. La situación comunicativa elegida es el examen y el contraexamen de testigos comunes durante procesos penales orales, de formato común no abreviado, en la jurisdicción de Córdoba capital. En las interacciones verbales con litigantes y jueces en las que emerge el testimonio se ponen en juego otros textos orales (en forma de citas de lo dicho antes por el mismo testigo u otras personas, referencias a rumores u opiniones colectivas, etc.) y textos escritos (actas de secuestro, informes periciales, actas de las declaraciones testimoniales en la etapa de instrucción, etc.). El foco de atención son las prácticas asociadas a la intertextualidad puesto que condicionan el carácter de la prueba testimonial producida ante el juzgador. Postulamos que los litigantes despliegan tácticas locales y estrategias globales reconocibles y recurrentes vinculadas al tratamiento de diversas categorías de textos previos. Además, planteamos averiguar si la participación de los jueces en interacción con los testigos es de suficiente injerencia como para ser un modo importante de generación de prueba testimonial. El enfoque metodológico general es etnográfico y analíticodiscursivo. Se seleccionará una causa por delito grave, se presenciará el debate en la cámara y se registrará el audio de todas las audiencias. Los datos a analizar serán los segmentos en las interacciones en los que se incorpora la lectura o se cita las actas de las declaraciones indagatorias o testimoniales anteriores, y los segmentos en los que se requiere, en calidad de prueba testimonial, la reproducción de dichos. Se procederá a partir de los detalles de la superficie textual y la pragmática de los intercambios y aprovechando el valor heurístico del concepto de voz, buscando identificar patrones recurrentes y los mecanismos generales que los rigen. Sobre esa base, se considerarán los intercambios verbales como interacción social que emerge moldeada por condiciones situacionales e institucionales y otros factores, tales como la incidencia de la pertenencia a grupos sociales o profesionales. Con el estudio se obtendrá una visión de prácticas cotidianas asociadas a la intertextualidad que son de crucial importancia para el carácter de la prueba testimonial producida ante el juzgador. Este paso nos acercará a conocer cómo se lleva a cabo efectivamente la administración de justicia penal y permitirá valorar los patrones de conducta a la luz de las normas procesales. In line with the Anglo-American tradition of situated discourse analysis, this project aims at tracing the links between oral texts and between oral and written texts related in textual chains which are present in an institutional event in which such relations have a direct consequence on the reliability of the information given and have an impact on the construction of what counts as official knowledge. The communicative situation under study is that of the direct and cross-examination of lay witnesses during a criminal trial in the city of Córdoba. During the face-to-face interactions between trial lawyers and judges in which the testimony takes place, other oral texts and written texts get incorporated. The focus of this research is centered on practices of intertextuality as they condition the nature of the oral evidence produced. It is argued that trial lawyers use recurrent local tactics and global strategies that are related to the treatment given to different categories of previous texts. Another aim of this study is to examine if judge’s interventions have an impact on the generation of the oral evidence. The data will come from a criminal trial that will be audio-taped in its entirety. Ethnographic observations of a criminal trial will be made. The focus of analysis will be on segments of interactions in which previous texts are read aloud or incorporated as quotes. After carrying out a detailed analysis of the surface of texts and the pragmatics of the exchanges, recurrent patterns and the general mechanisms that condition their emergence will be described. In this way, verbal exchanges will be considered social interactions that unfold conditioned by situational, institutional and social factors. This study will examine the relationship between intertextuality and the institutional practice of providing oral evidence. This will help understand how justice is actually administered and how patterns of behavior are valued according to institutional norms.

Trade disclosure and price dispersion

This paper determines the effects of post-trade opaqueness on market performance. We find that the degree of market transparency has important effects on market equilibria. In particular, we show that dealers operating in a transparent structure set regret-free prices at each period making zero expected profits in each of the two trading rounds, whereas in the opaque market dealers invest in acquiring information at the beginning of the trading day. Moreover, we obtain that if there is no trading activity in the first period, then market makers only change their quotes in the opaque market. Additionally, we show that trade disclosure increases the informational efficiency of transaction prices and reduces volatility. Finally, concerning welfare of market participants, we obtain ambiguous results. Keywords: Market microstructure, Post-trade transparency, Price experimentation, Price dispersion.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

Estudio de gestión de la finca La Esperanza, municipio de Pueblo Nuevo, Nicaragua

El presente proyecto tiene como finalidad el análisis de la Finca la Esperanza, en la localidad de Pueblo Nuevo, en la República de Nicaragua. En dicho análisis se estudian parámetros edáficos, calidad de agua y económicos, con el objetivo de poder plantear una propuesta de mejora en los rendimientos de la finca tanto a nivel económico como ambiental. La iniciativa de realizar este estudio surge de las necesidades del propio agricultor, que plantea el desarrollo rural sobre la base de actividades respetuosas con el medio. Las estrategias a los problemas sociales originados por la producción agraria industrial, como el éxodo rural, la pérdida de la agricultura convencional, la nueva función de los espacios agrarios de la sociedad, etc., se formalizaron en el denominado Desarrollo Sostenible. A nivel de finca cualquier concepción de sustentabilidad necesita que el agrosistema sea considerado como un ecosistema, en el que la investigación y la producción busquen no solamente altos rendimientos sino la optimización del sistema como un todo. Tal propósito requiere armonizar una viabilidad económica con otras variables, como estabilidad ecológica y equidad social. Para ello, los principios básicos de un sistema sostenible son: la conservación de los recursos renovables, la adaptación del cultivo al ambiente y el mantenimiento de un moderado pero sostenible nivel de producción. Como resultado de los análisis y observaciones hechas a lo largo de la estancia en la finca, se propone un plan de actuación de 10 años de duración en los cuales se procura alcanzar no únicamente unas cuotas máximas de rendimiento sino también la supervivencia de los recursos, base de la familia Videa Vanegas, propietarios.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

An LFG approach to the syntax of quotation

This paper attempts to give an account of the syntax of quotation from an LFG perspective. I claim that quotes are inserted at N’ positions by making use of a special phrase structure rule that makes the quote’s f-structure the PRED value of the mother f-structure. However, in order to reach to this conclusion, the concept of quotation has to be restricted to only include metalinguistic and direct reported speech quotes, by making use of the property of grammatical opacity, i.e. only subsegments whose ungrammaticality does not affect the grammaticality of the whole sentence are quotes. The main advantage of this is this distinguishes the syntax of direct quotes from the one of other citational but not quotational structures like Davidson’s (1979) and Cappelen and Lepore’s (2007) mixed quotation.

Independent Living Program, Vol. 2, 2007

The Iowa Department for the Blind is the state agency that serves Iowans with vision loss. Services are free, confidential and available statewide. "There are no limitations to what you can do with training and a positive attitude." (All quotes in this newsletter are from former training participants). At the Iowa Department for the Blind, we believe in a positive approach to blindness. Vision loss alone should not prevent anyone from being independent. For this reason, we offer a wide variety of opportunities to obtain the skills necessary for independence.

Independent Living Program, Vol. 1, 2007

The Iowa Department for the Blind is the state agency that serves Iowans with vision loss. Services are free, confidential and available statewide. "There are no limitations to what you can do with training and a positive attitude." (All quotes in this newsletter are from former training participants). At the Iowa Department for the Blind, we believe in a positive approach to blindness. Vision loss alone should not prevent anyone from being independent. For this reason, we offer a wide variety of opportunities to obtain the skills necessary for independence.

Independent Living Program, Vol. 3, 2007

The Iowa Department for the Blind is the state agency that serves Iowans with vision loss. Services are free, confidential and available statewide. "There are no limitations to what you can do with training and a positive attitude." (All quotes in this newsletter are from former training participants). At the Iowa Department for the Blind, we believe in a positive approach to blindness. Vision loss alone should not prevent anyone from being independent. For this reason, we offer a wide variety of opportunities to obtain the skills necessary for independence.

Independent Living Program, Vol. 1, 2008

The Iowa Department for the Blind is the state agency that serves Iowans with vision loss. Services are free, confidential and available statewide. "There are no limitations to what you can do with training and a positive attitude." (All quotes in this newsletter are from former training participants). At the Iowa Department for the Blind, we believe in a positive approach to blindness. Vision loss alone should not prevent anyone from being independent. For this reason, we offer a wide variety of opportunities to obtain the skills necessary for independence.