The effect of retirement on cognitive functioning

Cognitive impairment has emerged as a major driver of disability in old age, with profound effects on individual well-being and decision making at older ages. In the light of policies aimed at postponing retirement ages, an important question is whether continued labour supply helps to maintain high levels of cognition at older ages. We use data of older men from the US Health and Retirement Study to estimate the effect of continued labour market participation at older ages on later-life cognition. As retirement itself is likely to depend on cognitive functioning and may thus be endogenous, we use offers of early retirement windows as instruments for retirement in econometric models for later-life cognitive functioning. These offers of early retirement are legally required to be nondiscriminatory and thus, inter alia, unrelated to cognitive functioning. At the same time, these offers of early retirement options are significant predictors of retirement. Although the simple ordinary least squares estimates show a negative relationship between retirement duration and various measures of cognitive functioning, instrumental variable estimates suggest that these associations may not be causal effects. Specifically, we find no clear relationship between retirement duration and later-life cognition for white-collar workers and, if anything, a positive relationship for blue-collar workers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Neither Private nor Public: The Effects of Communal Provision of Water on Child Health in Peru

The literature on local services has focused on the effects of privatization and, if anything, has compared the effects of private and mixed public-private systems versus public provision. However, alternative forms of provision such as cooperatives, which can be very prevalent in many developing countries, have been completely ignored. In this paper, we investigate the effects of communal water provison (Comités Vecinales and Juntas Administrativas de Servicios de Saneamiento) on child health in Peru. Using detailed survey data at the household- and child-level for the years 2006-2010, we exploit the cross-section variability to assess the differential impact of this form of provision. Despite controlling for a wide range of household and local characteristics, the municipalities served by communal organizations are more likely to have poorer health indicators, what would result in a downward bias on the absolute magnitude of the effect of cooperatives. We rely on an instrumental variable strategy to deal with this potential endogeneity problem, and use the personnel resources and the administrative urban/rural classi fication of the municipalities as instruments for the provision type. The results show a negative and signi cant effect of comunal water provision on diarrhea among under- five year old children. Keywords: water utilities, cooperatives, child health, regulation, Peru. JEL Classi fication Numbers: L33; L50; L95

Does direct democracy reduce the size of government? New evidence from historical data, 1890-2000

Using historical data for all Swiss cantons from 1890 to 2000, we estimate the causal effect of direct democracy on government spending. The main innovation in this paper is that we use fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variables to address the potential endogeneity of institutions. We find that the budget referendum and lower costs to launch a voter initiative are effective tools in reducing canton level spending. However, we find no evidence that the budget referendum results in more decentralized government or a larger local government. Our instrumental variable estimates suggest that a mandatory budget referendum reduces the size of canton spending between 13 and 19 percent. A 1 percent lower signature requirement for the initiative reduces canton spending by up to 2 percent.

Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills

This paper applies the theoretical literature on nonparametric bounds ontreatment effects to the estimation of how limited English proficiency (LEP)affects wages and employment opportunities for Hispanic workers in theUnited States. I analyze the identifying power of several weak assumptionson treatment response and selection, and stress the interactions between LEPand education, occupation and immigration status. I show that thecombination of two weak but credible assumptions provides informative upperbounds on the returns to language skills for certain subgroups of thepopulation. Adding age at arrival as a monotone instrumental variable alsoprovides informative lower bounds.

Analysis of matched matrices

We consider the joint visualization of two matrices which have common rowsand columns, for example multivariate data observed at two time pointsor split accord-ing to a dichotomous variable. Methods of interest includeprincipal components analysis for interval-scaled data, or correspondenceanalysis for frequency data or ratio-scaled variables on commensuratescales. A simple result in matrix algebra shows that by setting up thematrices in a particular block format, matrix sum and difference componentscan be visualized. The case when we have more than two matrices is alsodiscussed and the methodology is applied to data from the InternationalSocial Survey Program.

Identifying the socioeconomic determinants of crime in Spanish provinces

In this paper we study, having as theoretical reference the economic model of crime (Becker, 1968; Ehrlich, 1973), which are the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of crime in Spain paying attention on the role of provincial peculiarities. We estimate a crime equation using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces (NUTS3) for the period 1993 to 1999 employing the GMMsystem estimator. Empirical results suggest that lagged crime rate and clear-up rate are correlated to all typologies of crime rate considered. Property crimes are better explained by socioeconomic variables (GDP per capita, GDP growth rate and percentage of population with high school and university degree), while demographic factors reveal important and significant influences, in particular for crimes against the person. These results are obtained using an instrumental variable approach that takes advantage of the dynamic properties of our dataset to control for both measurement errors in crime data and joint endogeneity of the explanatory variables

Identifying the socioeconomic determinants of crime in Spanish provinces

In this paper we study, having as theoretical reference the economic model of crime (Becker, 1968; Ehrlich, 1973), which are the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of crime in Spain paying attention on the role of provincial peculiarities. We estimate a crime equation using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces (NUTS3) for the period 1993 to 1999 employing the GMMsystem estimator. Empirical results suggest that lagged crime rate and clear-up rate are correlated to all typologies of crime rate considered. Property crimes are better explained by socioeconomic variables (GDP per capita, GDP growth rate and percentage of population with high school and university degree), while demographic factors reveal important and significant influences, in particular for crimes against the person. These results are obtained using an instrumental variable approach that takes advantage of the dynamic properties of our dataset to control for both measurement errors in crime data and joint endogeneity of the explanatory variables

French Swiss physicians' attitude toward palliative sedation: Influence of prognosis and type of suffering.

OBJECTIVE: Palliative sedation is a last resort medical act aimed at relieving intolerable suffering induced by intractable symptoms in patients at the end-of-life. This act is generally accepted as being medically indicated under certain circumstances. A controversy remains in the literature as to its ethical validity. There is a certain vagueness in the literature regarding the legitimacy of palliative sedation in cases of non-physical refractory symptoms, especially "existential suffering." This pilot study aims to measure the influence of two independent variables (short/long prognosis and physical/existential suffering) on the physicians' attitudes toward palliative sedation (dependent variable). METHODS: We used a 2 × 2 experimental design as described by Blondeau et al. Four clinical vignettes were developed (vignette 1: short prognosis/existential suffering; vignette 2: long prognosis/existential suffering; vignette 3: short prognosis/physical suffering; vignette 4: long prognosis/physical suffering). Each vignette presented a terminally ill patient with a summary description of his physical and psychological condition, medication, and family situation. The respondents' attitude towards sedation was assessed with a six-point Likert scale. A total of 240 vignettes were sent to selected Swiss physicians. RESULTS: 74 vignettes were completed (36%). The means scores for attitudes were 2.62 ± 2.06 (v1), 1.88 ± 1.54 (v2), 4.54 ± 1.67 (v3), and 4.75 ± 1.71 (v4). General linear model analyses indicated that only the type of suffering had a significant impact on the attitude towards sedation (F = 33.92, df = 1, p = 0.000). Significance of the results: The French Swiss physicians' attitude toward palliative sedation is more favorable in case of physical suffering than in existential suffering. These results are in line with those found in the study of Blondeau et al. with Canadian physicians and will be discussed in light of the arguments given by physicians to explain their decisions.

Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.

Relationship between obesity and the risk of clinically significant depression: Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been shown to be associated with depression and it has been suggested that higher body mass index (BMI) increases the risk of depression and other common mental disorders. However, the causal relationship remains unclear and Mendelian randomisation, a form of instrumental variable analysis, has recently been employed to attempt to resolve this issue. AIMS: To investigate whether higher BMI increases the risk of major depression. METHOD: Two instrumental variable analyses were conducted to test the causal relationship between obesity and major depression in RADIANT, a large case-control study of major depression. We used a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in FTO and a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 32 SNPs with well-established associations with BMI. RESULTS: Linear regression analysis, as expected, showed that individuals carrying more risk alleles of FTO or having higher score of GRS had a higher BMI. Probit regression suggested that higher BMI is associated with increased risk of major depression. However, our two instrumental variable analyses did not support a causal relationship between higher BMI and major depression (FTO genotype: coefficient -0.03, 95% CI -0.18 to 0.13, P = 0.73; GRS: coefficient -0.02, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.07, P = 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Our instrumental variable analyses did not support a causal relationship between higher BMI and major depression. The positive associations of higher BMI with major depression in probit regression analyses might be explained by reverse causality and/or residual confounding.

The chronic kidney disease outcomes and practice patterns study Brazil (CKDopps-Brazil): Design, data and methodology

Introduction: The chronic kidney disease outcomes and practice patterns study (CKDopps) is an international observational, prospective, cohort study involving patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5 [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, with a major focus upon care during the advanced CKD period (eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2)]. During a 1-year enrollment period, each one of the 22 selected clinics will enroll up to 60 advanced CKD patients (eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 and not dialysis-dependent) and 20 earlier stage CKD patients (eGFR between 30-59 ml/min/1.73 m2). Exclusion criteria: age < 18 years old, patients on chronic dialysis or prior kidney transplant. The study timeline include up to one year for enrollment of patients at each clinic starting in the end of 2013, followed by up to 2-3 years of patient follow-up with collection of detailed longitudinal patient-level data, annual clinic practice-level surveys, and patient surveys. Analyses will apply regression models to evaluate the contribution of patient-level and clinic practice-level factors to study outcomes, and utilize instrumental variable-type techniques when appropriate. Conclusion: Launching in 2013, CKDopps Brazil will study advanced CKD care in a random selection of nephrology clinics across Brazil to gain understanding of variation in care across the country, and as part of a multinational study to identify optimal treatment practices to slow kidney disease progression and improve outcomes during the transition period to end-stage kidney disease.

Analyse en identification partielle de la décision d'émigrer des étudiants africains

La migration internationale d’étudiants est un investissement couteux pour les familles dans beaucoup de pays en voie de développement. Cependant, cet investissement est susceptible de générer des bénéfices financiers et sociaux relativement importants aux investisseurs, tout autant que des externalités pour d’autres membres de la famille. Cette thèse s’intéresse à deux aspects importants de la migration des étudiants internationaux : (i) Qui part? Quels sont les déterminants de la probabilité de migration? (ii) Qui paie? Comment la famille s’organise-t-elle pour couvrir les frais de la migration? (iii) Qui y gagne? Ce flux migratoire est-il au bénéfice du pays d’origine? Entreprendre une telle étude met le chercheur en face de défis importants, notamment, l’absence de données complètes et fiables; la dispersion géographique des étudiants migrants en étant la cause première. La première contribution importante de ce travail est le développement d’une méthode de sondage en « boule de neige » pour des populations difficiles à atteindre, ainsi que d’estimateurs corrigeant les possibles biais de sélection. A partir de cette méthodologie, j’ai collecté des données incluant simultanément des étudiants migrants et non-migrants du Cameroun en utilisant une plateforme internet. Un second défi relativement bien documenté est la présence d’endogénéité du choix d’éducation. Nous tirons avantage des récents développements théoriques dans le traitement des problèmes d’identification dans les modèles de choix discrets pour résoudre cette difficulté, tout en conservant la simplicité des hypothèses nécessaires. Ce travail constitue l’une des premières applications de cette méthodologie à des questions de développement. Le premier chapitre de la thèse étudie la décision prise par la famille d’investir dans la migration étudiante. Il propose un modèle structurel empirique de choix discret qui reflète à la fois le rendement brut de la migration et la contrainte budgétaire liée au problème de choix des agents. Nos résultats démontrent que le choix du niveau final d’éducation, les résultats académiques et l’aide de la famille sont des déterminants importants de la probabilité d’émigrer, au contraire du genre qui ne semble pas affecter très significativement la décision familiale. Le second chapitre s’efforce de comprendre comment les agents décident de leur participation à la décision de migration et comment la famille partage les profits et décourage le phénomène de « passagers clandestins ». D’autres résultats dans la littérature sur l’identification partielle nous permettent de considérer des comportements stratégiques au sein de l’unité familiale. Les premières estimations suggèrent que le modèle « unitaire », où un agent représentatif maximise l’utilité familiale ne convient qu’aux familles composées des parents et de l’enfant. Les aidants extérieurs subissent un cout strictement positif pour leur participation, ce qui décourage leur implication. Les obligations familiales et sociales semblent expliquer les cas de participation d’un aidant, mieux qu’un possible altruisme de ces derniers. Finalement, le troisième chapitre présente le cadre théorique plus général dans lequel s’imbriquent les modèles développés dans les précédents chapitres. Les méthodes d’identification et d’inférence présentées sont spécialisées aux jeux finis avec information complète. Avec mes co-auteurs, nous proposons notamment une procédure combinatoire pour une implémentation efficace du bootstrap aux fins d’inférences dans les modèles cités ci-dessus. Nous en faisons une application sur les déterminants du choix familial de soins à long terme pour des parents âgés.

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

Racial and spatial interaction for neighborhood dynamics in Chicago

We look at at the empirical validity of Schelling’s models for racial residential segregation applied to the case of Chicago. Most of the empirical literature has focused exclusively the single neighborhood model, also known as the tipping point model and neglected a multineighborhood approach or a unified approach. The multi-neighborhood approach introduced spatial interaction across the neighborhoods, in particular we look at spatial interaction across neighborhoods sharing a border. An initial exploration of the data indicates that spatial contiguity might be relevant to properly analyse the so call tipping phenomena of predominately non-Hispanic white neighborhoods to predominantly minority neighborhoods within a decade. We introduce an econometric model that combines an approach to estimate tipping point using threshold effects and a spatial autoregressive model. The estimation results from the model disputes the existence of a tipping point, that is a discontinuous change in the rate of growth of the non-Hispanic white population due to a small increase in the minority share of the neighborhood. In addition we find that racial distance between the neighborhood of interest and it surrounding neighborhoods has an important effect on the dynamics of racial segregation in Chicago.

An on-line algorithm of uncertain time delay estimation in a continuous system

In this paper, we present an on-line estimation algorithm for an uncertain time delay in a continuous system based on the observational input-output data, subject to observational noise. The first order Pade approximation is used to approximate the time delay. At each time step, the algorithm combines the well known Kalman filter algorithm and the recursive instrumental variable least squares (RIVLS) algorithm in cascade form. The instrumental variable least squares algorithm is used in order to achieve the consistency of the delay parameter estimate, since an error-in-the-variable model is involved. An illustrative example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.