Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

A high C/O ratio and weak thermal inversion in the atmosphere of exoplanet WASP-12b

The carbon-to-oxygen ratio (C/O) in a planet provides critical information about its primordial origins and subsequent evolution. A primordial C/O greater than 0.8 causes a carbide-dominated interior, as opposed to the silicate-dominated composition found on Earth; the atmosphere can also differ from those in the Solar System. The solar C/O is 0.54 (ref. 3). Here we report an analysis of dayside multi-wavelength photometry of the transiting hot-Jupiter WASP-12b (ref. 6) that reveals C/O>=1 in its atmosphere. The atmosphere is abundant in CO. It is depleted in water vapour and enhanced in methane, each by more than two orders of magnitude compared to a solar-abundance chemical-equilibrium model at the expected temperatures. We also find that the extremely irradiated atmosphere (T>2,500K) of WASP-12b lacks a prominent thermal inversion (or stratosphere) and has very efficient day-night energy circulation. The absence of a strong thermal inversion is in stark contrast to theoretical predictions for the most highly irradiated hot-Jupiter atmospheres.

Non-equilibrium modeling of the FE XVII 3C/3D Line Ratio in an Intense X-ray Free-electron Laser Excited Plasma

Recent measurements using an X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) and an Electron Beam Ion Trap at the Linac Coherent Light Source facility highlighted large discrepancies between the observed and theoretical values for the Fe XVII 3C/3D line intensity ratio. This result raised the question of whether the theoretical oscillator strengths may be significantly in error, due to insufficiencies in the atomic structure calculations. We present time-dependent spectral modeling of this experiment and show that non-equilibrium effects can dramatically reduce the predicted 3C/3D line intensity ratio, compared with that obtained by simply taking the ratio of oscillator strengths. Once these non-equilibrium effects are accounted for, the measured line intensity ratio can be used to determine a revised value for the 3C/3D oscillator strength ratio, giving a range from 3.0 to 3.5. We also provide a framework to narrow this range further, if more precise information about the pulse parameters can be determined. We discuss the implications of the new results for the use of Fe XVII spectral features as astrophysical diagnostics and investigate the importance of time-dependent effects in interpreting XFEL-excited plasmas.

Automated P.falciparum detection system for post-treatment malaria diagnosis using modified annular ring ratio method

The gametocytes of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum are highly resistant to antimalarial drugs. Its presence in the blood can be detected even after a successful malaria treatment. This paper explains a modified Annular Ring Ratio method which successfully locates and differentiates gametocytes of P. falciparum species in thin blood film images. The method can be used as an efficient tool for gametocyte detection for post-treatment malaria diagnosis. It also identifies the presence of any White Blood Cells (WBCs) in the image, and discards other artifacts and non infected cells. It utilizes the information based on structure, color and geometry of the cells and does not require any segmentation or non-illumination correction techniques that are commonly used for cell detection.

Effects of Proactive and Retroactive Augmented Information on Physiological Responses in Learning a Novel Motor Skill

Previous research has demonstrated superior learning by participants presented with augmented task information retroactively versus proactively (Patterson & Lee, 2008; 2010). Theoretical explanations of these findings are related to the cognitive effort invested by participants during motor skill acquisition. The present study extended previous research by utilizing the physiological index, power spectral analysis of heart rate variability, previously shown to be sensitive to the degree of cognitive effort invested during the performance of a motor task (e.g., increase cognitive effort results in increased LF/HF ratio). Participants were required to learn 18 different key-pressing sequences. As expected, the proactive condition demonstrated superior RS during acquisition, with the retroactive condition demonstrating superior RS during retention. Measures of LF/HF ratio indicated the retroactive participants were investing significantly less cognitive effort in the retention period compared to the proactive participants (p< .05) as a function of learning.

Characterizations of Bivariate Models Using Some Dynamic Conditional Information Divergence Measures

In this article, we study some relevant information divergence measures viz. Renyi divergence and Kerridge’s inaccuracy measures. These measures are extended to conditionally specifiedmodels and they are used to characterize some bivariate distributions using the concepts of weighted and proportional hazard rate models. Moreover, some bounds are obtained for these measures using the likelihood ratio order

A likelihood ratio appropach to family-based association studies with covariates

We introduce a procedure for association based analysis of nuclear families that allows for dichotomous and more general measurements of phenotype and inclusion of covariate information. Standard generalized linear models are used to relate phenotype and its predictors. Our test procedure, based on the likelihood ratio, unifies the estimation of all parameters through the likelihood itself and yields maximum likelihood estimates of the genetic relative risk and interaction parameters. Our method has advantages in modelling the covariate and gene-covariate interaction terms over recently proposed conditional score tests that include covariate information via a two-stage modelling approach. We apply our method in a study of human systemic lupus erythematosus and the C-reactive protein that includes sex as a covariate.

On the design of opportunistic cooperative transmission strategies with partial CSI information

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of channel state information on the design of cooperative transmission protocols. This is motivated by the fact that the performance gain achieved by cooperative diversity comes at the price of the extra bandwidth resource consumption. Several opportunistic relaying strategies are developed to fully utilize the different types of a priori channel information. The information-theoretic measures such as outage probability and diversity-multiplexing tradeoff are developed for the proposed protocols. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the use of such a priori information increases the spectral efficiency of cooperative diversity, especially at low signal-to-noise ratio.

Sexual System, Sex Ratio, and Group Living in the Shrimp Thor amboinensis (De Man): Relevance to Resource-Monopolization and Sex-Allocation Theories

The sexual system of the symbiotic shrimp Thor amboinensis is described, along with observations on sex ratio and host-use pattern of different populations. We used a comprehensive approach to elucidate the previously unknown sexual system of this shrimp. Dissections, scanning electron microscopy, size-frequency distribution analysis, and laboratory observations demonstrated that T amboinensis is a protandric hermaphrodite: shrimp first mature as males and change into females later in life. Thor amboinensis inhabited the large and structurally heterogeneous sea anemone Stichoclactyla helianthus in large groups (up to 11 individuals) more frequently than expected by chance alone. Groups exhibited no particularly complex social structure and showed male-biased sex ratios more frequently than expected by chance alone. The adult sex ratio was male-biased in the four separate populations studied, one of them being thousands of kilometers apart from the others. This study supports predictions central to theories of resource monopolization and sex allocation. Dissections demonstrated that unusually large males were parasitized by an undescribed species of isopod (family Entoniscidae). Infestation rates were similarly low in both sexes (approximate to 11%-12%). The available information suggests that T. amboinensis uses pure search promiscuity as a mating system. This hypothesis needs to be formally tested with mating behavior observations and field measurements on the movement pattern of both sexes of the species. Further detailed studies on the lifestyle and sexual system of all the species within this genus and the development of a molecular phylogeny are necessary to elucidate the evolutionary history of gender expression in the genus Thor.

First molecular estimate of sex-ratio of southern right whale calves, Eubalaena australis, for Brazilian waters

The southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) was one of the most intensively hunted whales between the 17th and 20th centuries in the southern hemisphere. Recent estimates indicate that today there are around 7000 whales, representing 5 to 10% Of its original population. On the other hand, recent studies estimated that the population that migrates to the Brazilian coast grew by 14% from 1987 to 2003. However, there is no information about sex-ratio for adults or for calves in this region, which is an important parameter for understanding the biology of the species. We present here the first estimate Of calves` sex-ratio of southern right whales found along the southern Brazilian coast, one of the most important wintering grounds for the species. Sex was molecularly indentified for 21 biopsies collected from calves between 1998 and 2002, along the coast of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina States, in southern Brazil. The sex-ratio was two females for one male, however, it was not statistically different (chi(2) test, alpha = 0.05; df = 1) from the expected ratio of 1:1. This result is in accordance with the sex-ratio estimated for the species of all ages using external morphology (and behaviour in formation), (is well as for most species of baleen whales.

Bank dividends and signaling to information-sensitive depositors

Esta tese investiga se a composição do endividamento dos bancos afeta sua política de dividendos. Identificou-se que investidores sensíveis a informações (investidores institucionais) são alvos de sinalização através de dividendos por parte dos bancos. Utilizando uma base de dados exclusiva de bancos brasileiros, foi possível identificar vários tipos de credores, especificamente, investidores institucionais, empresas não financeiras e pessoas físicas, que são alvos potenciais de sinalização por dividendos. Adicionalmente, a existência de vários bancos de capital fechado, controlados e geridos por um pequeno grupo de acionistas, em que a sinalização direcionada a acionistas é implausível, permite inferir que bancos que utilizam mais fundos de investidores sensíveis a informações (institucionais) pagam mais dividendos, controlando por diversas características. Durante a crise financeira, este comportamento foi ainda mais pronunciado. Esta relação reforça o papel dos dividendos como uma forma custosa e crível de comunicar sobre a qualidade dos ativos dos bancos. A hipótese de que os dividendos podem ser utilizados como uma forma de expropriação dos depositantes por parte dos acionistas é refutada, uma vez que, se fosse esse o caso, observar-se-ia esse maiores dividendos em bancos com depositantes menos sensíveis a informação. Além disso, foi verificada uma relação negativa entre o pagamento de dividendos e o custo de captação (juros pagos em certificados de depósito bancário) e uma relação positiva de dividendos com o tamanho e com os lucros passados, e que os bancos de capital fechado pagam mais dividendos do que os de capital aberto, uma descoberta que também se alinha com a ideia de que os depositantes seriam os alvos da sinalização por dividendos. Finalmente, encontrou-se também uma relação negativa entre dividendos e adequação de capital do bancos, o que indica que pressões regulatórias podem induzir os bancos a pagar menos dividendos e que o pagamento de dividendos é negativamente relacionado com o crescimento da carteira de crédito, o que é consistente com a ideia de que os bancos com maiores oportunidades de investimento retêm seus lucros para aumentar seu patrimônio líquido e sua capacidade de conceder crédito.

Spatial variability of soil CO2 emission in a sugarcane area characterized by secondary information

Soil CO2 emission (FCO2) is governed by the inherent properties of the soil, such as bulk density (BD). Mapping of FCO2 allows the evaluation and identification of areas with different accumulation potential of carbon. However, FCO2 mapping over larger areas is not feasible due to the period required for evaluation. This study aimed to assess the quality of FCO2 spatial estimates using values of BD as secondary information. FCO2 and BD were evaluated on a regular sampling grid of 60 m × 60 m comprising 141 points, which was established on a sugarcane area. Four scenarios were defined according to the proportion of the number of sampling points of FCO2 to those of BD. For these scenarios, 67 (F67), 87 (F87), 107 (F107) and 127 (F127) FCO2 sampling points were used in addition to 127 BD sampling points used as supplementary information. The use of additional information from the BD provided an increase in the accuracy of the estimates only in the F107, F67 and F87 scenarios, respectively. The F87 scenario, with the approximate ratio between the FCO2 and BD of 1.00:1.50, presented the best relative improvement in the quality of estimates, thereby indicating that the BD should be sampled at a density 1.5 time greater than that applied for the FCO2. This procedure avoided problems related to the high temporal variability associated with FCO2, which enabled the mapping of this variable to be elaborated in large areas.

A study of habitat fragmentation in Southeastern Brazil using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS)

The purpose of this work was to study fragmentation of forest formations (mesophytic forest, riparian woodland and savannah vegetation (cerrado)) in a 15,774-ha study area located in the Municipal District of Botucatu in Southeastern Brazil (São Paulo State). A land use and land cover map was made from a color composition of a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) image. The edge effect caused by habitat fragmentation was assessed by overlaying, on a geographic information system (GIS), the land use and land cover data with the spectral ratio. The degree of habitat fragmentation was analyzed by deriving: 1. mean patch area and perimeter; 2. patch number and density; 3. perimeter-area ratio, fractal dimension (D), and shape diversity index (SI); and 4. distance between patches and dispersion index (R). In addition, the following relationships were modeled: 1. distribution of natural vegetation patch sizes; 2. perimeter-area relationship and the number and area of natural vegetation patches; 3. edge effect caused by habitat fragmentation, the values of R indicated that savannah patches (R = 0.86) were aggregated while patches of natural vegetation as a whole (R = 1.02) were randomly dispersed in the landscape. There was a high frequency of small patches in the landscape whereas large patches were rare. In the perimeter-area relationship, there was no sign of scale distinction in the patch shapes, In the patch number-landscape area relationship, D, though apparently scale-dependent, tends to be constant as area increases. This phenomenon was correlated with the tendency to reach a constant density as the working scale was increased, on the edge effect analysis, the edge-center distance was properly estimated by a model in which the edge-center distance was considered a function of the to;al patch area and the SI. (C) 1997 Elsevier B.V. B.V.

Genetic (co)variance components for ratio of lamb weight to ewe metabolic weight as an indicator of ewe efficiency

Data from a multibreed commercial flock located at Mid-West of Brazil, supported by Programa de Melhoramento Genético de Caprinos e Ovinos de Corte (GENECOC), were used to estimate genetic parameters of traits related to ewe productivity by Average Information Restricted Maximum Likelihood method applied to an animal model. The analyzed traits were litter weight at birth (LWB) and at weaning (LWW), ewe weight at weaning (EW) and ewe production efficiency, estimated by WEE=LWW/EW 0.75. The heritabilities were 0.26±0.05, 0.32±0.06, 0.37±0.03 and 0.10±0.02 for LWB, LWW, EW and WEE, respectively. Significant effects for direct heterosis were observed for LWW and EW. Recombination losses were important for EW and WEE. Genetic correlations of LWB with LWW, EW and WEE were 0.68, 0.37 and 0.15, respectively; of LWW with EW and WEE were 0.30 and 0.34, respectively; and between EW and WEE was -0.25. Even though it is a low heritability trait, WEE can be indicated as a selection criteria for improving the ewe productivity without increasing the mature weight of animals due to its genetic correlations with LWW and other traits. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.