Temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus infection in a low-density population of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in New Zealand

A longitudinal capture-mark-recapture study was conducted to determine the temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in a European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) population of low to moderate density on sand-hill country in the lower North Island of New Zealand. A combination of sampling ( trapping and radio-tracking) and diagnostic (cELISA, PCR and isotype ELISA) methods was employed to obtain data weekly from May 1998 until June 2001. Although rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus ( RHDV) infection was detected in the study population in all 3 years, disease epidemics were evident only in the late summer or autumn months in 1999 and 2001. Overall, 20% of 385 samples obtained from adult animals older than 11 weeks were seropositive. An RHD outbreak in 1999 contributed to an estimated population decline of 26%. A second RHD epidemic in February 2001 was associated with a population decline of 52% over the subsequent month. Following the outbreaks, the seroprevalence in adult survivors was between 40% and 50%. During 2000, no deaths from RHDV were confirmed and mortalities were predominantly attributed to predation. Influx of seronegative immigrants was greatest in the 1999 and 2001 breeding seasons, and preceded the RHD epidemics in those years. Our data suggest that RHD epidemics require the population immunity level to fall below a threshold where propagation of infection can be maintained through the population.

Quasispecies dynamics and treatment outcome during early hepatitis C infection in a cohort of HIV-infected men

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is emerging as one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in individuals infected with HIV and has overtaken AIDS-defining illnesses as a cause of death in HIV patient populations who have access to highly active antiretroviral therapy. For many years, the clonal analysis was the reference method for investigating viral diversity. In this thesis, a next generation sequencing (NGS) approach was developed using 454 pyrosequencing and Illumina-based technology. A sequencing pipeline was developed using two different NGS approaches, nested PCR, and metagenomics. The pipeline was used to study the viral populations in the sera of HCV-infected patients from a unique cohort of 160 HIV-positive patients with early HCV infection. These pipelines resulted in an improved understanding of HCV quasispecies dynamics, especially regarding studying response to treatment. Low viral diversity at baseline correlated with sustained virological response (SVR) while high viral diversity at baseline was associated with treatment failure. The emergence of new viral strains following treatment failure was most commonly associated with emerging dominance of pre-existing minority variants rather than re-infection. In the new era of direct-acting antivirals, next generation sequencing technologies are the most promising tool for identifying minority variants present in the HCV quasispecies populations at baseline. In this cohort, several mutations conferring resistance were detected in genotype 1a treatment-naïve patients. Further research into the impact of baseline HCV variants on SVR rates should be carried out in this population. A clearer understanding of the properties of viral quasispecies would enable clinicians to make improved treatment choices for their patients.

A mathematical model of chlamydial infection incorporating movement of chlamydial particles

We present a spatiotemporal mathematical model of chlamydial infection, host immune response and spatial movement of infectious particles. The re- sulting partial differential equations model both the dynamics of the infection and changes in infection profile observed spatially along the length of the host genital tract. This model advances previous chlamydia modelling by incorporating spatial change, which we also demonstrate to be essential when the timescale for movement of infectious particles is equal to, or shorter than, the developmental cycle timescale. Numerical solutions and model analysis are carried out, and we present a hypothesis regarding the potential for treatment and prevention of infection by increasing chlamydial particle motility.

The Metapopulation Dynamics of an Infectious Disease: Tuberculosis in Possums

An SEI metapopulation model is developed for the spread of an infectious agent by migration. The model portrays two age classes on a number of patches connected by migration routes which are used as host animals mature. A feature of this model is that the basic reproduction ratio may be computed directly, using a scheme that separates topography, demography, and epidemiology. We also provide formulas for individual patch basic reproduction numbers and discuss their connection with the basic reproduction ratio for the system. The model is applied to the problem of spatial spread of bovine tuberculosis in a possum population. The temporal dynamics of infection are investigated for some generic networks of migration links, and the basic reproduction ratio is computed—its value is not greatly different from that for a homogeneous model. Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations

Modelling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 in human malaria to better understand malaria rapid diagnostic test performance

BACKGROUND: Effective diagnosis of malaria is a major component of case management. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) based on Plasmodium falciparumhistidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are popular for diagnosis of this most virulent malaria infection. However, concerns have been raised about the longevity of the PfHRP2 antigenaemia following curative treatment in endemic regions. METHODS: A model of PfHRP2 production and decay was developed to mimic the kinetics of PfHRP2 antigenaemia during infections. Data from two human infection studies was used to fit the model, and to investigate PfHRP2 kinetics. Four malaria RDTs were assessed in the laboratory to determine the minimum detectable concentration of PfHRP2. RESULTS: Fitting of the PfHRP2 dynamics model indicated that in malaria naive hosts, P. falciparum parasites of the 3D7 strain produce 1.4 x 10(-)(1)(3) g of PfHRP2 per parasite per replication cycle. The four RDTs had minimum detection thresholds between 6.9 and 27.8 ng/mL. Combining these detection thresholds with the kinetics of PfHRP2, it is predicted that as few as 8 parasites/muL may be required to maintain a positive RDT in a chronic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the model indicate that good quality PfHRP2-based RDTs should be able to detect parasites on the first day of symptoms, and that the persistence of the antigen will cause the tests to remain positive for at least seven days after treatment. The duration of a positive test result following curative treatment is dependent on the duration and density of parasitaemia prior to treatment and the presence and affinity of anti-PfHRP2 antibodies.

The decline of northern malaria and population dynamics of Plamodium vivax

Europe was declared malaria free in 1975. The disappearance of malaria has traditionally been attributed to numerous deliberate actions like vector control, the screening of houses, more efficient medication etc. Malaria, however, disappeared from many countries like Finland before any counter measures had even started. The aim of this thesis is to study the population ecology of P. vivax and its interaction with the human host and the vector. By finding the factors that attributed to the extinction of vivax malaria it might be possible to improve the modern strategy against P. vivax. The parasite was studied with data from Finland, which provides the longest time series (1749-2008) of malaria statistics in the world. The malaria vectors, Anopheles messeae and A. beklemishevi are still common species in the country. The eradication of vivax malaria is difficult because the parasite has a dormant stage that can cause a relapse long after a primary infection. It was now shown that P. vivax is able to detect the presence of a potential vector. A dormant stage is triggered even from a bite of an uninfected Anopheles mosquito. This optimizes the chances for the Plasmodium to reach a mosquito vector for sexual reproduction. The longevity of the dormant stage could be shown to be at least nine years. The parasite spends several years in its human host and the behaviour of the human carrier had a profound impact on the decline of the disease in Finland. Malaria spring epidemics could be explained by a previous warm summer. Neither annual nor summer mean temperature had any impact on the long term malaria trend. Malaria disappeared slowly from Finland without mosquito control. The sociological change from extended families to nuclear families led to decreased household size. The decreased household size correlated strongly with the decline of malaria. That led to an increased isolation of the subpopulations of P. vivax. Their habitat consisted of the bedrooms in which human carriers slept together with the overwintering vectors. The isolation of the parasite ultimately led to the extinction of vivax malaria. Metapopulation models adapted to local conditions should therefore be implemented as a tool for settlement planning and socio-economic development and become an integrated part of the fight against malaria.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Structure, function and intracellular dynamics of alphavirus replication complexes

Intracellular membrane alterations are hallmarks of positive-sense RNA (+RNA) virus replication. Strong evidence indicates that within these exotic compartments, viral replicase proteins engage in RNA genome replication and transcription. To date, fundamental questions such as the origin of altered membranes, mechanisms of membrane deformation and topological distribution and function of viral components, are still waiting for comprehensive answers. This study addressed some of the above mentioned questions for the membrane alterations induced during Semliki Forest virus (SFV) infection of mammalian cells. With the aid of electron and fluorescence microscopy coupled with radioactive labelling and immuno-cytochemistry techniques, our group and others showed that few hours after infection the four non structural proteins (nsP1-4) and newly synthesized RNAs of SFV colocalized in close proximity of small membrane invaginations, designated as spherules . These 50-70 nm structures were mainly detected in the perinuclear area, at the limiting membrane of modified endosomes and lysosomes, named CPV-I (cytopathic vacuoles type I). More rarely, spherules were also found at the plasma membrane (PM). In the first part of this study I present the first three-dimensional reconstruction of the CPV-I and the spherules, obtained by electron tomography after chemical or cryo-fixation. Different approaches for imaging these macromolecular assemblies to obtain better structure preservation and higher resolution are presented as unpublished data. This study provides insights into spherule organization and distribution of viral components. The results of this and other experiments presented in this thesis will challenge currently accepted models for virus replication complex formation and function. In a revisitation of our previous models, the second part of this work provides the first complete description of the biogenesis of the CPV-I. The results demonstrate that these virus-induced vacuoles, where hundreds of spherules accumulate at late stages during infection, represent the final phase of a journey initiated at the PM, which apparently serves as a platform for spherule formation. From the PM spherules were internalized by an endocytic event that required the activity of the class I PI3K, caveolin-1, cellular cholesterol and functional actin-myosin network. The resulting neutral endocytic carrier vesicle delivered the spherules to the membrane of pre-existing acidic endosomes via multiple fusion events. Microtubule based transport supported the vectorial transfer of these intermediates to the pericentriolar area where further fusions generated the CPV-I. A signal for spherule internalization was identified in one of the replicase proteins, nsP3. Infections of cells with viruses harbouring a deletion in a highly phosphorylated region of nsP3 did not result in the formation of CPV-Is. Instead, thousands of spherules remained at the PM throughout the infection cycle. Finally, the role of the replicase protein nsP2 during viral RNA replication and transcription was investigated. Three enzymatic activities, protease, NTPase and RNA-triphosphatase were studied with the aid of temperature sensitive mutants in vitro and, when possible, in vivo. The results highlighted the interplay of the different nsP2 functions during different steps of RNA replication and sub-genomic promoter regulation, and suggest that the protein could have different activities when participating in the replication complex or as a free enzyme.

Estimating the fraction of progeny virions that must incorporate APOBEC3G for suppression of productive HIV-1 infection

The contest between the host factor APOBEC3G (A3G) and the HIV-1 protein Vif presents an attractive target of intervention. The extent to which the A3G-Vif interaction must be suppressed to tilt the balance in favor of A3G remains unknown. We employed stochastic simulations and mathematical modeling of the within-host dynamics and evolution of HIV-1 to estimate the fraction of progeny virions that must incorporate A3G to render productive infection unsustainable. Using three different approaches, we found consistently that a transition from sustained infection to suppression of productive infection occurred when the latter fraction exceeded similar to 0.8. The transition was triggered by A3G-induced hypermutations that led to premature stop codons compromising viral production and was consistent with driving the basic reproductive number, R-o, below unity. The fraction identified may serve as a quantitative guideline for strategies targeting the A3G-Vif axis. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Generalist Predator Regulating Spread of a Wildlife Disease: Exploring Two Infection Transmission Scenarios

Ecoepidemiology is a well-developed branch of theoretical ecology, which explores interplay between the trophic interactions and the disease spread. In most ecoepidemiological models, however, the authors assume the predator to be a specialist, which consumes only a single prey species. In few existing papers, in which the predator was suggested to be a generalist, the alternative food supply was always considered to be constant. This is obviously a simplification of reality, since predators can often choose between a number of different prey. Consumption of these alternative prey can dramatically change their densities and strongly influence the model predictions. In this paper, we try to bridge the gap and explore a generic ecoepidemiological system with a generalist predator, where the densities of all prey are dynamical variables. The model consists of two prey species, one of which is subject to an infectious disease, and a predator, which consumes both prey species. We investigate two main scenarios of infection transmission mode: (i) the disease transmission rate is predator independent and (ii) the transmission rate is a function of predator density. For both scenarios we fulfil an extensive bifurcation analysis. We show that including a second dynamical prey in the system can drastically change the dynamics of the single prey case. In particular, the presence of a second prey impedes disease spread by decreasing the basic reproduction number and can result in a substantial drop of the disease prevalence. We demonstrate that with efficient consumption of the second prey species by the predator, the predator-dependent disease transmission can not destabilize interactions, as in the case with a specialist predator. Interestingly, even if the population of the second prey eventually vanishes and only one prey species finally remains, the system with two prey species may exhibit different properties to those of the single prey system.

Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe

Increasing the mutation rate, mu, of viruses above a threshold, mu(c), has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution. We find a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: tau approximate to 0.6/(mu - mu(c)). The law is robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens. We estimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.