On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Important?

A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss ( up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.

Relation of Aortic Valve Calcium Detected by Cardiac Computed Tomography to All-Cause Mortality

Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:1787-1791)

Acute care surgeon South American model

Background In the World Health Organization book by Murray and Lopez (The Global Burden of Disease), the authors make the point that there are major regional differences across the world for death from injury. In the European market economies, injuries accounted for 6% of all deaths, of which the majority were the result of road traffic accidents. In stark contrast, in Latin America and the Caribbean, injuries account for 12-13% of all deaths, and most of these are the result of violence. An estimated 30% of all male deaths are from external causes, and road traffic accidents are the number two cause of death. Within South American countries, trauma is the second most common cause of death in Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Brazil. In other South American countries, it is the third or fourth most common cause of death. If one examines the Disability Adjusted Life Years, South America is the third highest in the world. Death from injury primarily affects people in the middle- and low-income group. Traffic accidents and suicide are the main causes of trauma in the high-income population. South America is made up of developing and poor countries that have trauma as a very important cause of death and disability. Methods The author has reviewed information on injury from the World Health Organization, Pan American Health Organization, and Brazilian Health Ministry. In addition, a search of injury was performed through MEDLINE. Results and Conclusions The results of this review show that trauma is a major public health problem in South America. At the present time, there is a lack of statewide system development. In addition, there are difficulties in training surgeons to cope with these problems.

A transgenic mouse model that recapitulates the clinical features of both neonatal and adult forms of the skin disease epidermolytic hyperkeratosis

Keratins are the major structural proteins of keratinocytes, which are the most abundant cell type in the mammalian epidermis. Mutations in epidermal keratin genes have been shown to cause severe blistering skin abnormalities. One such disease, epidermolytic hyperkeratosis (EHK), also known as bullous congenital ichthyosiform erythroderma, occurs as a result of mutations in highly conserved regions of keratins K1 and K10. Patients with EHK first exhibit erythroderma with severe blistering, which later is replaced by thick patches of scaly skin. To assess the effect of a mutated K1 gene on skin biology and to produce an animal model for EHK, we removed 60 residues from the 2B segment of HK1 and observed the effects of its expression in the epidermis of transgenic mice. Phenotypes of the resultant mice closely resembled those observed in the human disease, first with epidermal blisters, then later with hyperkeratotic lesions. In neonatal mice homozygous for the transgene, the skin was thicker, with an increased labeling index, and the spinous cells showed a collapse of the keratin filament network around the nuclei, suggesting that a critical concentration of the mutant HK1, over the endogenous MK1, was required to disrupt the structural integrity of the spinous cells. Additionally, footpad epithelium, which is devoid of hair follicles, showed blistering in the spinous layer, suggesting that hair follicles can stabilize or protect the epidermis from trauma. Blisters were not evident in adult mice, but instead they showed a thick, scaly hyperkeratotic skin with increased mitosis, resulting in an increased number of corneocytes and granular cells. Irregularly shaped keratohyalin granules were also observed. To date, this is the only transgenic model to show the typical morphology found in the adult form of EHK.

Indirect immune detection of ecdysone receptor (EcR) during the formation of DNA puffs in Bradysia hygida (Diptera, Sciaridae)

Gene amplification occurs in Bradysia hygida salivary glands, at the end of the fourth larval instar. The hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) triggers this process, which results in DNA puff formation. Amplified genes are activated in two distinct groups. The activity of the first group is dependent on high levels of 20E, while the second group needs low hormone levels. Consequently, the salivary glands of B. hygida constitute an interesting biological model to study how 20E, and its receptors, affect gene amplification and activity. We produced polyclonal antibodies against B. hygida EcR (BhEcR). In western blots a polypeptide of about 66 kDa was detected in salivary gland extracts. The antibodies were also used for indirect immune-localization of BhEcR in polytene chromosomes. RNA-polymerase II was also immune-detected. We did not detect the receptor in chromosome C where the first and second groups of DNA puffs form during DNA puff anlage formation, but it was present during puff expansion. During the active phase of both groups of DNA puffs, RNA polymerase II co-localized with BhEcR. After puff regression, these antigens were not detected. Apparently, EcR plays a direct role in the transcription of amplified genes, but its role in gene amplification remains enigmatic.

Impact of a program for the prevention of traffic accidents in a Southern Brazilian city: a model for implementation in a developing country

Background: Traffic accidents constitute the main cause of death in the first decades of life. Traumatic brain injury is the event most responsible for the severity of these accidents. The SBN started an educational program for the prevention of traffic accidents, adapted from the American model ""Think First"" to the Brazilian environment, since 1995, with special effort devoted to the prevention of TBI by using seat belts and motorcycle helmets. The objective of the present study was to set up a traffic accident prevention program based on the adapted Think First and to evaluate its impact by comparing epidemiological variables before and after the beginning of the program. Methods: The program was executed in Maringa city, from September 2004 to August 2005, with educational actions targeting the entire population, especially teenagers and young adults. The program was implemented by building a network of information facilitators and multipliers inside the organized civil society, with widespread population dissemination. To measure the impact of the program, a specific software was developed for the storage and processing of the epidemiological variables. Results: The results showed a reduction of trauma severity due to traffic accidents after the execution of the program, mainly TBI. Conclusions: The adapted Think First was systematically implemented and its impact measured for the first time in Brazil, revealing the usefulness of the program for reducing trauma and TBI severity in traffic accidents through public education and representing a standardized model of implementation in a developing country. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in hemodynamic and neurohumoral control cause cardiac damage in one-kidney, one-clip hypertensive mice

Borges GR, Salgado HC, Silva CA, Rossi MA, Prado CM, Fazan R Jr. Changes in hemodynamic and neurohumoral control cause cardiac damage in one-kidney, one-clip hypertensive mice. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 295: R1904-R1913, 2008. First published October 1, 2008; doi:10.1152/ajpregu.00107.2008.-Sympathovagal balance and baroreflex control of heart rate (HR) were evaluated during the development (1 and 4 wk) of one-kidney, one-clip (1K1C) hypertension in conscious mice. The development of cardiac hypertrophy and fibrosis was also examined. Overall variability of systolic arterial pressure (AP) and HR in the time domain and baroreflex sensitivity were calculated from basal recordings. Methyl atropine and propranolol allowed the evaluation of the sympathovagal balance to the heart and the intrinsic HR. Staining of renal ANG II in the kidney and plasma renin activity (PRA) were also evaluated. One and four weeks after clipping, the mice were hypertensive and tachycardic, and they exhibited elevated sympathetic and reduced vagal tone. The intrinsic HR was elevated only 1 wk after clipping. Systolic AP variability was elevated, while HR variability and baroreflex sensitivity were reduced 1 and 4 wk after clipping. Renal ANG II staining and PRA were elevated only 1 wk after clipping. Concentric cardiac hypertrophy was observed at 1 and 4 wk, while cardiac fibrosis was observed only at 4 wk after clipping. In conclusion, these data further support previous findings in the literature and provide new features of neurohumoral changes during the development of 1K1C hypertension in mice. In addition, the 1K1C hypertensive model in mice can be an important tool for studies evaluating the role of specific genes relating to dependent and nondependent ANG II hypertension in transgenic mice.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Can eccentric arterial plaques alone cause flow stagnation points and favour thrombus incorporation?

We have used an experimental model of aorta stenosis, with a Plexiglas plug, simulating a stable atheromatous plaque that promotes local turbulence and thrombosis. With animal survival of more than 24 h, we followed the partial fibrinolysis of the thrombus as well as its posterior organization and incorporation to the arterial wall as a neointima for up to 30 days. The mushroom plug form permitted the development of recirculation and stasis areas around it, favouring this evolution. Despite noted limitations, this study demonstrates that thrombus incorporation can contribute to plaque extension, as it can promote recirculation and stasis areas.

Could sudden death syndrome (SDS) in chickens (Gallus gallus) be a valid animal model for sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP)?

Epilepsy is the most common serious neurological disorder and approximately 1% of the population worldwide has epilepsy. Moreover, sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is the most important direct epilepsy-related cause of death. Information concerning fisk factors for SUDEP is conflicting, but potential risk factors include: young age, early onset of epilepsy, duration of epilepsy, uncontrolled seizures, seizure frequency, AED number and winter temperatures. Additionally, the cause of SUDEP is still unknown; however, the most commonly suggested mechanisms are cardiac abnormalities during and between seizures. Similarly, sudden death syndrome (SDS) is a disease characterized by an acute death of well-nourished and seeming healthy Gallus gallus after abrupt and brief flapping of their wings and incidence of SDS these animals has recently increased worldwide. Moreover, the exactly cause of SDS in Gallus gallus is unknown, but is very probable that cardiac abnormalities play a potential role. Due the similarities between SUDEP and SDS and as Gallus gallus behavioral manifestation during SDS phenomenon is close of a tonic-clonic seizure, in this paper we suggest that epilepsy could be a new possible causal factor for SDS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surveillance of Rickettsia sp infection in capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) a potential model of epidemiological alert in endemic areas

Introduction. Capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) are considered amplifying hosts of Rickettsia sp. These rodents are usually parasitized by the tick vector, Amblyomma cajennense, the main vector of rickettsioses in humans and animals in South America. Capybaras can be used as sentinels in detection of circulation of rickettsiae. Objective. Antibodies to rickettsiae of spotted fever group were detected in capybaras in a rural area of Cordoba Province, northern Colombia. Materials and methods. Sera were analyzed from 36 capybaras in a rural area of Monteria (village of San Jeronimo) in Cordoba. For the detection of IgG antibodies, indirect immunofluorescence was performed. The antigens were derived from R. rickettsia strain Taiacu isolated in Brazil. Capybara sera were diluted 1:64 for IFA analysis. Ticks were collected from each capybara (also known as chiguiro) and identified to species. Results. The seroprevalence of spotted fever group Rickettsia was 22% (8 capybaras). Four sera had a titer of 1:64, 3 had a titer of 1:128 and one serum had a titer of 1:512. All ticks removed from the capybaras (n=933) were taxonomically identified as Amblyomma cajennense. Conclusion. Colombia has areas endemic for rickettsioses, as indicated by confirmed annual outbreaks. The current study reports the first evidence of natural rickettsial infection of the spotted fever group in capybaras from Colombia. The findings suggest that capybaras can be used as sentinels for the circulation of rickettsiae and can identify endemic areas for the transmission of rickettsial diseases.

Plasminogen Acquisition and Activation at the Surface of Leptospira Species Lead to Fibronectin Degradation

Pathogenic Leptospira species are the etiological agents of leptospirosis, a widespread disease of human and veterinary concern. In this study, we report that Leptospira species are capable of binding plasminogen (PLG) in vitro. The binding to the leptospiral surface was demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescence confocal microscopy with living bacteria. The PLG binding to the bacteria seems to occur via lysine residues because the ligation is inhibited by addition of the lysine analog 6-aminocaproic acid. Exogenously provided urokinase-type PLG activator (uPA) converts surface-bound PLG into enzymatically active plasmin, as evaluated by the reaction with the chromogenic plasmin substrate D-Val-Leu-Lys 4-nitroanilide dihydrochloridein. The PLG activation system on the surface of Leptospira is PLG dose dependent and does not cause injury to the organism, as cellular growth in culture was not impaired. The generation of active plasmin within Leptospira was observed with several nonvirulent high-passage strains and with the nonpathogenic saprophytic organism Leptospira biflexa. Statistically significant higher activation of plasmin was detected with a low-passage infectious strain of Leptospira. Plasmin-coated virulent Leptospira interrogans bacteria were capable of degrading purified extracellular matrix fibronectin. The breakdown of fibronectin was not observed with untreated bacteria. Our data provide for the first time in vitro evidence for the generation of active plasmin on the surface of Leptospira, a step that may contribute to leptospiral invasiveness.

Low doses of monocrotaline in rats cause diminished bone marrow cellularity and compromised nitric oxide production by peritoneal macrophages

Monocrotaline (MCT) is a pyrrolizidine alkaloid found in a variety of plants. The main symptoms of MCT toxicosis in livestock are related to hepato- and nephrotoxicity; in rodents and humans, the induction of a pulmonary hypertensive state that progresses to cor pulmonale has received much attention. Although studies have shown that MCT can cause effects on cellular functions that would be critical to those of lymphocytes/macrophages during a normal immune response, no immunotoxicological study on MCT have yet to ever be performed. Thus, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of MCT on different branches of the immune system using the rat - which is known to be sensitive to the effects of MCT - as the model. Rats were treated once a day by gavage with 0.0, 0.3, 1.0, 3.0, or 5.0 mg MCT/kg for 14 days, and then any effects of the alkaloid on lymphoid organs, acquired immune responses, and macrophage activity were evaluated. No alterations in the relative weight of lymphoid organs were observed; however, diminished bone marrow cellularity in rats treated with the alkaloid was observed. MCT did not affect humoral or cellular immune responses. When macrophages were evaluated, treatments with MCT caused no significant alterations in phagocytic function or in hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) production; however, the MCT did cause compromised nitric oxide (NO) release by these cells.

Spironolactone and hydrochlorothiazide exert antioxidant effects and reduce vascular matrix metalloproteinase-2 activity and expression in a model of renovascular hypertension

Background and purpose: Increased oxidative stress and up-regulation of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) may cause structural and functional vascular changes in renovascular hypertension. We examined whether treatment with spironolactone (SPRL), hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) or both drugs together modified hypertension-induced changes in arterial blood pressure, aortic remodelling, vascular reactivity, oxidative stress and MMP levels and activity, in a model of renovascular hypertension. Experimental approach: We used the two-kidney,one-clip (2K1C) model of hypertension in Wistar rats. Sham-operated or hypertensive rats were treated with vehicle, SPRL (25 mg center dot kg-1 center dot day-1), HCTZ (20 mg center dot kg-1 center dot day-1) or a combination for 8 weeks. Systolic blood pressure was monitored weekly. Aortic rings were isolated to assess endothelium-dependent and -independent relaxations. Morphometry of the vascular wall was carried out in sections of aorta. Aortic NADPH oxidase activity and superoxide production were evaluated. Formation of reactive oxygen species was measured in plasma as thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances. Aortic MMP-2 levels and activity were determined by gelatin and in situ zymography, fluorimetry and immunohistochemistry. Key results: Treatment with SPRL, HCTZ or the combination attenuated 2K1C-induced hypertension, and reversed the endothelial dysfunction in 2K1C rats. Both drugs or the combination reversed vascular aortic remodelling induced by hypertension, attenuated hypertension-induced increases in oxidative stress and reduced MMP-2 levels and activity. Conclusions and implications: SPRL or HCTZ, alone or combined, exerted antioxidant effects, and decreased renovascular hypertension-induced MMP-2 up-regulation, thus improving the vascular dysfunction and remodelling found in this model of hypertension.