Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Temporal variability and trends of the downward solar radiation over Europe during the 20th century, with regional focus in the dimming/brightening phenomena on the Iberian Peninsula

Proyecto de investigación elaborado a partir de una estancia en el Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, a Alemanya, entre 2010 y 2012. La radiación solar que alcanza la superficie terrestre es un factor clave entre los procesos que controlan el clima de la Tierra, dado el papel que desempeñan en el balance energético y el ciclo hidrológico. Establecer su contribución al cambio climático reciente supone una gran dificultad debido a la complejidad de los procesos implicados, la gran cantidad de información requerida, y la incertidumbre de las bases de datos disponibles en la actualidad. Así, el objetivo principal del proyecto ha consistido en generar una base de datos de insolación incluyendo las series más largas (desde finales del siglo XIX) disponibles en toda Europa. Esta base de datos complementa para nuestro continente el Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) que mantiene y gestiona el grupo que ha acogido al receptor de la ayuda postdoctoral, y permite extender espacial (especialmente en países del sur de Europa) y temporalmente las series climáticas disponibles de mediciones de irradiancia solar. Como la insolación es un proxy de la irradiancia solar, el proyecto actual también ha tratado de calibrar de forma exhaustiva ambas variables, a fin de generar una nueva base de datos reconstruida de esta segunda variable que esté disponible desde finales del siglo XIX en Europa. Un segundo objetivo del proyecto ha consistido en continuar trabajando a escala de mayor detalle sobre la Península Ibérica, con el fin de proporcionar una mejor comprensión del fenómeno del “global dimming/brightening” y su impacto en el ciclo hidrológico y balance energético. Finalmente, un tercer objetivo del presente proyecto postdoctoral ha consistido en continuar estudiando los posibles ciclos semanales a gran escala de diferentes variables climáticas, línea de investigación de interés para la detección de posibles efectos de los aerosoles antrópicos en el clima a escalas temporales breves, y consecuentemente estrechamente vinculado al fenómeno del “global dimming/brightening”.

Mineralogical, petrographic and geochemical characterisation of white and coloured Iberian marbles in the context of the provenancing of some artefacts from Thamusida (Kenitra, Morocco)

A multi-analytical study has been carried out on a collection of white and coloured Iberian marbles. A total of 135 marble specimens were collected in Spain and Portugal from the Betic chain (Alhaurin de la Torre, Mijas, Macael), Ossa Morena (Alconera, Almaden de la Plata and Viana do Alentejo), and the Estremoz Anticline (Bencatel, Borba and Estremoz) areas. X-ray diffractometry and carbon and oxygen stable isotope analysis were carried out on these samples; 38 samples were also investigated by optical and scanning electron microscopy. The results provide a set of diagnostic parameters that allow discriminating the sampled marble quarries. The carbonate minerals composition is distinctive for the Mijas and Alhaurin de la Torre marbles; the isotopic analysis allows discriminating also between these two dolomitic marble quarries. The Ossa Morena and Estremoz Anticline marbles share a similar stable isotope composition; the accessory mineral content, the maximum grain size (MGS) and the fabric are particularly useful in the distinction between them. In the framework of archaeometric provenance studies on Thamusida (Kenitra, Morocco) Roman marble artefacts, a specific comparison between this new Iberian database and archaeological findings has been carried out. The hypothesis of commercial exchanges between the Iberian regions and Roman Morocco is supported by the results of the provenance study, which suggested the Almaden de la Plata and Mijas quarries as possible sources of raw materials for the production of archaeological artefacts.

On the spread of the European catfish (Silurus glanis) in the Iberian Peninsula: first record in the Llobregat river basin

The first record of the European catfish (Silurus glanis L. 1758) introduced to the Llobregat river basin (NE Spain) is reported. We captured one individual of this silurid fish species (of a total of 541 fish) in La Baells reservoir on 30 August 2006. Given the low catchability of this fish species, the popularity among some anglers, and old rumours on this introduction, we hypothesize that this species has been present in the reservoir since a few years ago, despite we did not capture it in two previous surveys. The illegal introduction of this and other exotic species to other Iberian river basins should be prevented by the Spanish administration

Botrychium matricariifolium A. Br. ex Koch, una nova espècie per a la flora del massís del Montseny = Botrychium matricariifolium A. Br. ex Koch, a new species for the flora of the Montseny massif (NE Iberian Peninsula)

Nota breu sobre la descripció de Botrychium matricariifolium A. Br. ex Koch al massís del Montseny

A methodology for the classification of convective structures using meteorological radar: Application to heavy rainfall events on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula

During the period 1996-2000, forty-three heavy rainfall events have been detected in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (Northeastern of Spain). Most of these events caused floods and serious damage. This high number leads to the need for a methodology to classify them, on the basis of their surface rainfall distribution, their internal organization and their physical features. The aim of this paper is to show a methodology to analyze systematically the convective structures responsible of those heavy rainfall events on the basis of the information supplied by the meteorological radar. The proposed methodology is as follows. Firstly, the rainfall intensity and the surface rainfall pattern are analyzed on the basis of the raingauge data. Secondly, the convective structures at the lowest level are identified and characterized by using a 2-D algorithm, and the convective cells are identified by using a 3-D procedure that looks for the reflectivity cores in every radar volume. Thirdly, the convective cells (3-D) are associated with the 2-D structures (convective rainfall areas). This methodology has been applied to the 43 heavy rainfall events using the meteorological radar located near Barcelona and the SAIH automatic raingauge network.

Chemical characterization of majolica from 14th-18th century production centers on the Iberian Peninsula: a preliminary neutron activation study

Majolica pottery is one of the most characteristic tableware produced during the Medieval and Renaissance periods. Majolica technology was introduced to the Iberian Peninsula by Islamic artisans during Medieval times, and its production and popularity rapidly spread throughout Spain and eventually to other locations in Europe and the Americas. The prestige and importance of Spanish majolica was very high. Consequently, this ware was imported profusely to the Americas during the Spanish Colonial period. Nowadays, Majolica pottery serves as an important horizon marker at Spanish colonial sites. A preliminary study of Spanish-produced majolica was conducted on a set of 246 samples from the 12 primary majolica production centers on the Iberian Peninsula. The samples were analyzed by neutron activation analysis (NAA), and the resulting data were interpreted using an array of multivariate statistical procedures. Our results show a clear discrimination between different production centers. In some cases, our data allow one to distinguish amongst shards coming from the same production location suggesting different workshops or group of workshops were responsible for production of this pre-industrial pottery.

Climatic and land use changes in the NW of Iberian Peninsula recorded in a 1,500-year record from Lake Sanabria

L'estudi de diversos descriptors paleoambientals com ara el pol·len, les diatomees i la sedimentologia, realitzat en sediments procedents del llac de Sanabria (NO de la península Ibèrica), ha aportat informació sobre les oscil·lacions climàtiques atribuïdes als períodes càlids tardoromà i medieval, així com a la petita edat del gel. Entre els anys 440 i 950 dC, el clima es caracteritzà per temperatures suaus i un règim de precipitacions mediterrani, malgrat l¿existència de pulsacions més fredes vers els anys 530 i 700 dC. Les evidències pol·líniques dels usos del sòl indiquen l'extensió d¿activitats ramaderes i agrícoles. Aquesta fase correspon al final del període càlid romà i al període càlid medieval. El canvi de condicions climàtiques es produeix entre els anys 950 i 1100 dC, moment en què els valors mínims de matèria orgànica, pol·len arbori, concentració de diatomees, nitrogen total (TN) i mida del gra indiquen temperatures més baixes i un règim de precipitacions més regular. Aquest període correspon a

High altitude Chironomidae (Diptera) of Serra da Estrela (Portugal): Additions to the Portuguese and Iberian Peninsula fauna

A Chironomidae (Diptera) fauna list for headwater streams of high altitude areas in Serra da Estrela (Portugal) is presented, doubling the previously established species richness for the region. The findings include 17 new records for Portugal, which represent an increase to 219 species for the Continental Portugal Chironomidae fauna. Two new records were detected for the Iberian Peninsula: one species (Tvetenia duodenaria), and one subgenusPsectrocladius (Mesopsectrocladius); and the presence of the genus Natarsia is confirmed. The last two occurrences correspond to monoespecific taxa of the Palearctic region. However, as taxonomic identification has been based on larval material, instead of pupae, pupal exuviae or imagoes, species level assignment is still uncertain. Key words: Diptera, Chironomidae, high mountain streams, Serra da Estrela, Portugal, Iberian Peninsula. RESUMEN Quironómidos (Diptera, Chironomidae) de alta montaña de la Sierra de Estrela (Portugal) y adiciones a la fauna de Portugal y la Península Ibérica Se presenta una lista de especies de Chironomidae (Diptera) recolectados en los ríos de cabecera de zonas de alta montaña en la Serra da Estrela (Portugal). Con esta aportación se duplica la riqueza de especies regional conocida hasta el momento y se eleva la fauna de quironómidos del Portugal continental a 219 especies. Se incluyen dos nuevas citas para la Península Ibérica, una especie (Tvetenia duodenaria) y un subgéneroPsectrocladius (Mesopsectrocladius), y se confirma la presencia del género Natarsia. En los dos últimos casos se trata de larvas de taxones hasta el momento monoespecíficos en la región paleárctica, pero al no haberse recolectado pupas o adultos no se puede asegurar la identificación específica. Palabras clave: Diptera, Chironomidae, ríos de alta montaña, Serra da Estrela, Portugal,

A comparison of rapid bioassessment protocols used in 2 regions with Mediterranean climates, the Iberian Peninsula and South Africa

Abstract. The ability of 2 Rapid Bioassessment Protocols (RBPs) to assess stream water quality was compared in 2 Mediterranean-climate regions. The most commonly used RBPs in South Africa (SAprotocol) and the Iberian Peninsula (IB-protocol) are both multihabitat, field-based methods that use macroinvertebrates. Both methods use preassigned sensitivity weightings to calculate metrics and biotic indices. The SA- and IB-protocols differ with respect to sampling equipment (mesh size: 1000 lm vs 250 300 lm, respectively), segregation of habitats (substrate vs flow-type), and sampling and sorting procedures (variable time and intensity). Sampling was undertaken at 6 sites in South Africa and 5 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. Forty-four and 51 macroinvertebrate families were recorded in South Africa and the Iberian Peninsula, respectively; 77.3% of South African families and 74.5% of Iberian Peninsula families were found using both protocols. Estimates of community similarity compared between the 2 protocols were .60% similar among sites in South Africa and .54% similar among sites in the Iberian Peninsula (BrayCurtis similarity), and no significant differences were found between protocols (Multiresponse Permutation Procedure). Ordination based on Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling grouped macroinvertebrate samples on the basis of site rather than protocol. Biotic indices generated with the 2 protocols at each site did not differ. Thus, both RBPs produced equivalent results, and both were able to distinguish between biotic communities (mountain streams vs foothills) and detect water-quality impairment, regardless of differences in sampling equipment, segregation of habitats, and sampling and sorting procedures. Our results indicate that sampling a single habitat may be sufficient for assessing water quality, but a multihabitat approach to sampling is recommended where intrinsic variability of macroinvertebrate assemblages is high (e.g., in undisturbed sites in regions with Mediterranean climates). The RBP of choice should depend on whether the objective is routine biomonitoring of water quality or autecological or faunistic studies.

Trichoptera (INSECTA) collected in Mediterranean river basins in the Iberian Peninsula: taxonomic remarks and notes on ecology

As a result of the GUADALMED project, undertaken in Iberian Mediterranean basins, to which were added samples taken by the junior author in the area, we collected numerous caddisfly larvae, pupae and adults. Some larvae were also reared in the lab to obtain adults and allow proper identification. A total of 90 species were identified, which accounts for more than a fourth of the species known in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Here we confirm the presence of doubtful species in the Iberian Peninsula (Glyphotaelius pellucidus) and we expand the distribution range of others (Lype reducta, Micrasema minimum, Limnephilus guadarramicus, Sericostoma pyrenaicum). Moreover, because of the unconformity of morphological larval characteristics with present taxonomical keys (Mesophylax aspersus) or lack of larvae descriptions (Allogamus mortoni, Stenophylax espanioli), here we include some relevant taxonomical aspects that are useful to identify larvae. A brief description of the larva of a possible new species of Hydropsyche (from now on H. gr. instabilis) is also given. Los tricópteros (Insecta) recolectados en las cuencas mediterráneas de la Península Ibérica: notas taxonómicas y requerimientos ecológicos Como resultado de los estudios realizados en el proyecto GUADALMED en las cuencas de los ríos mediterráneos peninsulares y otros muestreos realizados por la primera autora del trabajo se han recolectado numerosas larvas, pupas y adultos de tricópteros. Algunas larvas fueron criadas en el laboratorio para la obtención de adultos y con ello asegurar su identificación. Se han identificado un total de 90 especies que suponen más de una cuarta parte de las especies actualmente conocidas en la Península Ibérica y Baleares. En este trabajo se confirma la presencia, hasta ahora dudosa en la Península Ibérica, de algunas especies (Glyphotaelius pellucidus) y se amplia el área de distribución de otras (Lype reducta, Micrasema minimum, Limnephilus guadarramicus, Sericostoma pyrenaicum). Además, se incluyen algunos aspectos taxonómicos relevantes para la identificación de algunas larvas en futuros estudios, debido a que las claves ya existentes no describen correctamente la larva (Mesophylax aspersus) o porque se trata de larvas sin describir (Allogamus mortoni, Stenophylax espanioli). Se añade también una somera descripción de la larva de una posible nueva especie de Hydropsyche (citada aquí como H. gr. instabilis) y que requiere un estudio más detallado.

Euphorbia L. subsect. Esula (Boiss. in DC.) Pax in the Iberian Peninsula. Leaf surface, chromosome numbers and taxonomic treatment

Presentem l'estudi taxonòmic dels représentants d'Euphorbia subsect. Esula a la Península Ibèrica. Prèviament, s'inclou un primer capítol dedicai a l'estudi de les epidermis foliars i un segon capítol sobre nombres cromosòmics...

Taxonomy of the genus Chamaesyce S.F. Gray in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands

A taxonomic study is undertaken of the ten taxa (nine of them specific) belonging to the genus Chamaesyce S.F. Gray (Euphorbiaceae) which are present in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and a dichotomic key is provided. The taxonomic chacarcteristics of ecology are given. The presence of Chamaesyce humifusa (Willd.) Prokh. in the Iberian Peninsula is confirmed and Chamaesyce humistrata (Gray) Small is recorded for the first time from Europe.

Ursinia nana (Anthemideae, Asteraceae), and adventive from South Africa which is becoming naturalized in the Iberian Peninsula. Observations about its reproductive biology and fruit dispersal mechanism.

The presence of Ursinia nana, an Anthemideae of South-African origin which has been introduced into the NE Iberian Peninsula, is reported for the fi rst time in Europe. The data offered cover its precise location, morphology, chromosome number, ecology and a population census, as well as its life cycle, fl oral structure, reproductive biology and fruit dispersal mechanisms. Of special note are the clear predominance of autogamy (geitonogamy) over xenogamy as a reproductive system and the large number of fruits produced with high and immediate germinative capacity. These characteristics permit rapid colonization by the introduced species, which can become invasive. However, fruit predation by the ant Messor barbarus points to a natural mechanism that helps regulate population growth and makes biological control possible. Finally its possibilities of expansion in the colonized area and of naturalization in the NE Iberian Peninsula are assessed.

Antimicrobial Activity of Iberian macroalgae

The antibacterial and antifungal activity of 82 marine macroalgae (18 Chlorophyceae, 25 Phaeophyceae and 39 Rhodophyceae) was studied to evaluate their potential for being used as natural preservatives in the cosmetic industry. The bioactivity was analysed from crude extracts of fresh and lyophilised samples against three Gram-positive bacteria, two Gram-negative bacteria and one yeast using the agar diffusion technique. The samples were collected seasonally from Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts of the Iberian Peninsula. Of the macroalgae analysed, 67% were active against at least one of the six test microorganisms. The highest percentage of active taxa was found in Phaeophyceae (84%), followed by Rhodophyceae (67%) and Chlorophyceae (44%). Nevertheless, red algae had both the highest values and the broadest spectrum of bioactivity. In particular, Bonnemaisonia asparagoides, Bonnemaisonia hamifera, Asparagopsis armata and Falkenbergia rufolanosa (Bonnemaisoniales) were the most active taxa. Bacillus cereus was the most sensitive test microorganism and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was the most resistant. The highest percentages of active taxa from Phaeophyceae and Rhodophyceae were found in autumn, whereas they were found in summer for Chlorophyceae.