Effect of SST Variation on ITCZ in APE Simulations

The effect of meridional variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on tropical atmospheric circulation is analyzed using Aqua-planet Experiment (APE) simulations. The meridional SST gradient around the narrow SST peak in CONTROL simulation favours a strong and single equatorial Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, defined by the maximum of zonally averaged total precipitation) in all APE models. In contrast, flat equatorial SST peak (FLAT simulation) favours split/double ITCZs flanking the SST maximum, in the majority of the APE models. Although there is reasonable agreement for SST sensitivity of ITCZ among the APE models in CONTROL, there exists disparity among them in FLAT case. Similarly, while the total and convective precipitation responses are consistent among the models, the large-scale precipitation response shows considerable inter-model variations in FLAT case. The APE intercomparison indicates that the occurrence and positioning of the ITCZ are primarily related to boundary layer moisture convergence as a response to the meridional variation of SST. Furthermore, the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature is found to be an important factor that can influence the positioning of ITCZ. FLAT SST distribution is found to be similar to the observed distribution over the Indian region during summer season. Models that yield double ITCZs in this case simulate an easterly jet over the equatorial region (similar to 15 degrees equatorward of the ITCZ). This is analogous to the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), which is a unique feature observed over the Indian region during summer monsoon season, with its core at 12 degrees N, equatorward of the seasonal convergence zone centered along 25 degrees N. In these models, positive meridional temperature gradient and the associated easterly shear in the atmosphere strengthened by moisture convergence penetrate up to the upper troposphere, with which TEJ is in thermal wind balance.

On the climatology, oceanography and fisheries of the Panama Bight

ENGLISH: Seasonal changes in the climatology, oceanography and fisheries of the Panama Bight are determined mainly by the latitudinal movements of the ITCZ over the region. Evaporation is about 980 mm annually. Rainfall is probably much less than previous estimates because of a discontinuity in the ITCZ. Freshwater runoff from the northern watershed varies from 22 X 109 m3/mo in October-November to 11 X 109 m3/mo in February-March; from the southeastern watershed it varies from 16 X 109 m3/mo in April-June to 9 X 109 m3/mo in October-December. Total annual runoff is about 350 X 109m3. A marked salinity front is found at all seasons off the eastern shore. In the northern part of the Bight temperatures in the upper layers remained fairly constant from May to November; by February the mean temperature had decreased by 4°C and sharp gradients existed in the geographic distributions. Salinities in the upper layers decreased steadily from May to November; by February the mean salinity had increased by 2.5‰. The mean depth of the mixed layer increased from 27 m in May to 40 m in November; by February upwelling decreased it to 18 m. Between November and February upwelling had doubled the amount of P04-P and tripled that of NO3-N in the euphotic zone; surface phytoplankton production and standing crop, and zooplankton concentrations also doubled during this period. Upwelling was about 1.5 m/mo during May-November and about 9.0 m/mo during November-February, the annual total is about 48 m, Mean primary production is about 0.3 gC/m2day during May-December and about 0.6 gC/m2day during January-April; annual production is about 140 gC/m2. A thermal ridge occurred in February running from the northern to the southwestern part of the Bight. Within this ridge was a marked thermal dome coinciding with the center of the cyclonic circulation cell. Upwelling in the dome averaged 16 m/mo in November-February. The fisheries of the Panama Bight annually produce about 30,000 metric tons of food species and about 68,000 m.t. of species used for reduction. Most attempts to further the understanding of tuna ecology were unsuccessful. The apparent abundances of yellowfin and skipjack in the northern part of the Bight appear to be related to the seasonal cycle of upwelling and enrichment, as abundances are greatest in April and May when food appears to be plentiful. The life-cycle of the anchoveta in the Gulf of Panama also appears to be related to upwelling; the species mass varies from about 39,000 m.t. in December to about 169,000 m.t, in April. About 19.1 X 1012 anchoveta eggs are spawned annually. The life-cycles of shrimp in the Panama Bight appear to be related to upwelling as catches are greatest in May-July, about 3-5 months after peak upwelling, and annual catches are inversely correlated with sea level. SPANISH: Los cambios estacionales en la climatología, oceanografía y pesquerías del Panamá Bight están determinados principalmente por el movimiento latitudinal sobre la región de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical (ZCIT). La evaporación es de unos 980 mm al año. La pluviosidad es probablemente muy inferior a las estimaciones previas a causa de la descontinuidad en la ZCIT. El drenaje de agua dulce, de la vertiente septentrional, varía de 22 x 109m3/mes en octubre-noviembre hasta 11 x 109m3/mes en febreromarzo; el de la vertiente sudeste varía de 16 x 109m3/mes en abril-junio a 9 x 109m3/mes en octubre-diciembre. El drenaje total, anual, es alrededor de 350 x 109m3. En todas las estaciones frente al litoral oriental se encuentra un frente de salinidad marcada. En la parte septentrional del Bight las temperaturas en las capas superiores permanecieron más bien constantes de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la temperatura media había disminuido en unos 4°C y existieron gradientes agudos en las distribuciones geográficas. Las salinidades en las capas superiores disminuyeron constantemente de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la salinidad media había aumentado en 2.5‰. La profundidad media de la capa mixta aumentó de 27 m en mayo a 40 m en noviembre; en febrero el afloramiento disminuyó el espesor de la capa mixta hasta 18 m. Entre noviembre y febrero el afloramiento había duplicado la cantidad de PO4-P y triplicado la de NO3-N en la zona eufótica; la producción superficial de fitoplancton y la biomasa primaria y las concentraciones de zooplancton también se duplicaron durante este período. El afloramiento era cerca de 1.5 mimes durante mayo-noviembre y de unos 9.0 mimes durante noviembre-febrero, el total anual es de unos 48 m. La producción media primaria es aproximadamente de 0.3 gC/m2 al día durante mayo-diciembre y cerca de 0.6 gC/m2 al día durante enero-abril; la producción anual es de unos 140 gC/m2. En febrero apareció una convexidad termal que se extendió de la parte norte a la parte sudoeste del Bight. Dentro de esta convexidad se encontró un domo termal marcado el cual coincidió con el centro de la circulación ciclonal de la célula. El afloramiento en el domo tuvo un promedio de 16 mimes en noviembre-febrero. Las pesquerías del Panamá Bight producen anualmente de cerca 30,000 toneladas métricas de especies alimenticias y unas 68,000 t.m. de especies usadas para la reducción. La mayoría de los esfuerzos realizados con el fin de adquirir más conocimiento sobre la ecología del atún no tuvo éxito. La abundancia aparente del atún aleta amarilla y del barrilete en la parte septentrional del Bight parece estar relacionada con el ciclo estacional del afloramiento y del enriquecimiento, ya que la abundancia mayor en abril y mayo cuando parece que hay abundancia es de alimento. El ciclo de vida de la anchoveta en el Golfo de Panamá parece también que está relacionada al afloramiento. La masa de la especie varía de unas 39,000 t.m. en diciembre a cerca de 169,000 t.m. en abril. Aproximadamente 19.1 x 1012 huevos de anchoveta son desovados anualmente. Los ciclos de vida del camarón en el Panamá Bight parecen estar relacionados con el afloramiento ya que las capturas son superiores en mayo-julio, unos 3-5 meses después del ápice del afloramiento, y las capturas anuales se correlacionan inversamente con el nivel del mar. (PDF contains 340 pages.)

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

Joint distributions of waves and rain

The transfer of gases between the atmosphere and ocean is affected by a number of processes, of which wave action and rainfall are two of potential significance. Efforts have been made to quantify separately their contributions; however such assessments neglect the interaction of these phenomena. Here we look at the correlation statistics of waves and rain to note which regions display a strong association between rainfall and the local sea state. The conditional probability of rain varies from ~0.5% to ~15%, with most of the equatorial belt (which contains the ITCZ) showing a greater likelihood of rain at the lowest sea states. In contrast the occurrence of rain is independent of wave height in the Southern Ocean. The 1997/98 El Niño enhances the frequency of rain in some Pacific regions, with this change showing some association with wave conditions.

Seasonal ITCZ migration dynamically controls the location of the (sub)tropical Atlantic biogeochemical divide

Inorganic nitrogen depletion restricts productivity in much of the low-latitude oceans, generating a selective advantage for diazotrophic organisms capable of fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). However, the abundance and activity of diazotrophs can in turn be controlled by the availability of other potentially limiting nutrients, including phosphorus (P) and iron (Fe). Here we present high-resolution data (∼0.3°) for dissolved iron, aluminum, and inorganic phosphorus that confirm the existence of a sharp north–south biogeochemical boundary in the surface nutrient concentrations of the (sub)tropical Atlantic Ocean. Combining satellite-based precipitation data with results from a previous study, we here demonstrate that wet deposition in the region of the intertropical convergence zone acts as the major dissolved iron source to surface waters. Moreover, corresponding observations of N2 fixation and the distribution of diazotrophic Trichodesmium spp. indicate that movement in the region of elevated dissolved iron as a result of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone drives a shift in the latitudinal distribution of diazotrophy and corresponding dissolved inorganic phosphorus depletion. These conclusions are consistent with the results of an idealized numerical model of the system. The boundary between the distinct biogeochemical systems of the (sub)tropical Atlantic thus appears to be defined by the diazotrophic response to spatial–temporal variability in external Fe inputs. Consequently, in addition to demonstrating a unique seasonal cycle forced by atmospheric nutrient inputs, we suggest that the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms would likely characterize the response of oligotrophic systems to altered environmental forcing over longer timescales.

Lake Kumphawapi – an archive of Holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes in northeast Thailand

The long-term climatic and environmental history of Southeast Asia, and of Thailand in particular, is still fragmentary. Here we present a new 14C-dated, multi-proxy sediment record (TOC, C/N, CNS isotopes, Si, Zr, K, Ti, Rb, Ca elemental data, biogenic silica) for Lake Kumphawapi, the second largest natural lake in northeast Thailand. The data set provides a reconstruction of changes in lake status, groundwater fluctuations, and catchment run-off during the Holocene. A comparison of multiple sediment sequences and their proxies suggests that the summer monsoon was stronger between c. 9800 and 7000 cal yr BP. Lake status and water level changes around 7000 cal yr BP signify a shift to lower effective moisture. By c. 6500 cal yr BP parts of the lake had been transformed into a peatland, while areas of shallow water still occupied the deeper part of the basin until c. 5400–5200 cal yr BP. The driest interval in Kumphawapi's history occurred between c. 5200 and 3200 cal yr BP, when peat extended over large parts of the basin. After 3200 cal yr BP, the deepest part of the lake again turned into a wetland, which existed until c. 1600 cal yr BP. The observed lake-level rise after 1600 cal yr BP could have been caused by higher moisture availability, although increased human influence in the catchment cannot be ruled out. The present study highlights the use of multiple sediment sequences and proxies to study large lakes, such as Lake Kumphawapi in order to correctly assess the time transgressive response to past changes in hydroclimate conditions. Our new data set from northeast Thailand adds important palaeoclimatic information for a region in Southeast Asia and allows discussing Holocene monsoon variability and ITCZ movement in greater detail.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the Intra-Americas Sea

Easterly waves (EWs) are prominent features of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), found in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, where they commonly serve as precursors to hurricanes over both basins.Alarge proportion of Atlantic EWs are known to form over Africa, but the origin of EWs over the Caribbean and east Pacific in particular has not been established in detail. In this study reanalyses are used to examine the coherence of the large-scale wave signatures and to obtain track statistics and energy conversion terms for EWs across this region. Regression analysis demonstrates that some EW kinematic structures readily propagate between the Atlantic and east Pacific, with the highest correlations observed across Costa Rica and Panama. Track statistics are consistent with this analysis and suggest that some individual waves are maintained as they pass from the Atlantic into the east Pacific, whereas others are generated locally in the Caribbean and east Pacific. Vortex anomalies associated with the waves are observed on the leeward side of the Sierra Madre, propagating northwestward along the coast, consistent with previous modeling studies of the interactions between zonal flow and EWs with model topography similar to the Sierra Madre. An energetics analysis additionally indicates that the Caribbean low-level jet and its extension into the east Pacific—known as the Papagayo jet—are a source of energy for EWs in the region. Two case studies support these statistics, as well as demonstrate the modulation of EW track and storm development location by the MJO.

Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120°E and between 20/30°N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon.

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This ‘high’ PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15–30°. If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

An anatomy of the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s

In the 1960s and early 1970s sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean cooled rapidly. There is still considerable uncertainty about the causes of this event, although various mechanisms have been proposed. In this observational study it is demonstrated that the cooling proceeded in several distinct stages. Cool anomalies initially appeared in the mid-1960s in the Nordic Seas and Gulf Stream Extension, before spreading to cover most of the Subpolar Gyre. Subsequently, cool anomalies spread into the tropical North Atlantic before retreating, in the late 1970s, back to the Subpolar Gyre. There is strong evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation, linked to a southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ, played an important role in the event, particularly in the period 1972-76. Theories for the cooling event must account for its distinctive space-time evolution. Our analysis suggests that the most likely drivers were: 1) The “Great Salinity Anomaly” of the late 1960s; 2) An earlier warming of the subpolar North Atlantic, which may have led to a slow-down in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; 3) An increase in anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. Determining the relative importance of these factors is a key area for future work.

The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

Influences of deep convective cloud systems on tropospheric trace gases and photochemistry over the tropical West Pacific

A numerical model for studying the influences of deep convective cloud systems on photochemistry was developed based on a non-hydrostatic meteorological model and chemistry from a global chemistry transport model. The transport of trace gases, the scavenging of soluble trace gases, and the influences of lightning produced nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2) on the local ozone-related photochemistry were investigated in a multi-day case study for an oceanic region located in the tropical western Pacific. Model runs considering influences of large scale flows, previously neglected in multi-day cloud resolving and single column model studies of tracer transport, yielded that the influence of the mesoscale subsidence (between clouds) on trace gas transport was considerably overestimated in these studies. The simulated vertical transport and scavenging of highly soluble tracers were found to depend on the initial profiles, reconciling contrasting results from two previous studies. Influences of the modeled uptake of trace gases by hydrometeors in the liquid and the ice phase were studied in some detail for a small number of atmospheric trace gases and novel aspects concerning the role of the retention coefficient (i.e. the fraction of a dissolved trace gas that is retained in the ice phase upon freezing) on the vertical transport of highly soluble gases were illuminated. Including lightning NOx production inside a 500 km 2-D model domain was found to be important for the NOx budget and caused small to moderate changes in the domain averaged ozone concentrations. A number of sensitivity studies yielded that the fraction of lightning associated NOx which was lost through photochemical reactions in the vicinity of the lightning source was considerable, but strongly depended on assumptions about the magnitude and the altitude of the lightning NOx source. In contrast to a suggestion from an earlier study, it was argued that the near zero upper tropospheric ozone mixing ratios which were observed close to the study region were most probably not caused by the formation of NO associated with lightning. Instead, it was argued in agreement with suggestions from other studies that the deep convective transport of ozone-poor air masses from the relatively unpolluted marine boundary layer, which have most likely been advected horizontally over relatively large distances (both before and after encountering deep convection) probably played a role. In particular, it was suggested that the ozone profiles observed during CEPEX (Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment) were strongly influenced by the deep convection and the larger scale flow which are associated with the intra-seasonal oscillation.

Paleo erosion rates and climate shifts recorded by Quaternary cut-and-fill sequences in the Pisco valley, central Peru

Fluvial cut-and-fill sequences have frequently been reported from various sites on Earth. Nevertheless, the information about the past erosional regime and hydrological conditions have not yet been adequately deciphered from these archives. The Quaternary terrace sequences in the Pisco valley, located at ca. 13°S, offer a manifestation of an orbitally-driven cyclicity in terrace construction where phases of sediment accumulation have been related to the Minchin (48–36 ka) and Tauca (26–15 ka) lake level highstands on the Altiplano. Here, we present a 10Be-based sediment budget for the cut-and-fill terrace sequences in this valley to quantify the orbitally forced changes in precipitation and erosion. We find that the Minchin period was characterized by an erosional pulse along the Pacific coast where denudation rates reached values as high as 600±80 mm/ka600±80 mm/ka for a relatively short time span lasting a few thousands of years. This contrasts to the younger pluvial periods and the modern situation when 10Be-based sediment budgets register nearly zero erosion at the Pacific coast. We relate these contrasts to different erosional conditions between the modern and the Minchin time. First, the sediment budget infers a precipitation pattern that matches with the modern climate ca. 1000 km farther north, where highly erratic and extreme El Niño-related precipitation results in fast erosion and flooding along the coast. Second, the formation of a thick terrace sequence requires sufficient material on catchment hillslopes to be stripped off by erosion. This was most likely the case immediately before the start of the Minchin period, because this erosional epoch was preceded by a >50 ka-long time span with poorly erosive climate conditions, allowing for sufficient regolith to build up on the hillslopes. Finally, this study suggests a strong control of orbitally and ice sheet forced latitudinal shifts of the ITCZ on the erosional gradients and sediment production on the western escarpment of the Peruvian Andes at 13° during the Minchin period.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from C-14 and Be-10 records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.