Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Interaction of equatorial waves through resonance with the diurnal cycle of tropical heating

In this work, a new theoretical mechanism is presented in which equatorial Rossby and inertio-gravity wave modes may interact with each other through resonance with the diurnal cycle of tropical deep convection. We have adopted the two-layer incompressible equatorial primitive equations forced by a parametric heating that roughly represents deep convection activity in the tropical atmosphere. The heat source was parametrized in the simplest way according to the hypothesis that it is proportional to the lower-troposphere moisture convergence, with the background moisture state function mimicking the structure of the ITCZ. In this context, we have investigated the possibility of resonant interaction between equatorially trapped Rossby and inertio-gravity modes through the diurnal cycle of the background moisture state function. The reduced dynamics of a single resonant duo shows that when this diurnal variation is considered, a Rossby wave mode can undergo significant amplitude modulations when interacting with an inertio-gravity wave mode, which is not possible in the context of the resonant triad non-linear interaction. Therefore, the results suggest that the diurnal variation of the ITCZ can be a possible dynamical mechanism that leads the Rossby waves to be significantly affected by high frequency modes.

30 years of synoptic observations from Neumayer Station with links to datasets

High temporal resolution (three hours) records of temperature, wind speed and sea level pressure recorded at Antarctic research station Neumayer (70°S, 8°W) during 1982-2011 are analysed to identify oscillations from daily to intraseasonal timescales. The diurnal cycle dominates the three-hourly time series of temperature during the Antarctic summer and is almost absent during winter. In contrast, the three-hourly time series of wind speed and sea level pressure show a weak diurnal cycle. The dominant pattern of the intraseasonal variability of these quantities, which captures the out-of-phase variation of temperature and wind speed with sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 40 days and ~ 80 days, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis reveal that these oscillations may be related to tropical intraseasonal oscillations via large-scale eastward propagating atmospheric circulation wave-trains. The second pattern of intraseasonal variability, which captures in-phase variations of temperature, wind and sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 35, ~ 60 and ~ 120 days. These oscillations are attributed to the Southern Annular Mode/Antarctic Oscillation (SAM/AAO) which shows enhanced variability at these timescales. We argue that intraseasonal oscillations of tropical climate and SAM/AAO are related to distinct patterns of climate variables measured at Neumayer.

Dynamics of intraseasonal sea level and thermocline variability in the equatorial Atlantic during 2002-03

Satellite and in situ observations in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean during 2002-03 show dominant spectral peaks at 40-60 days and secondary peaks at 10-40 days in sea level and thermocline within the intraseasonal period band (10-80 days). A detailed investigation of the dynamics of the intraseasonal variations is carried out using an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Two parallel experiments are performed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin for the period 2000-03: one is forced by daily scatterometer winds from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite together with other forcing fields, and the other is forced by the low-passed 80-day version of the above fields. To help in understanding the role played by the wind-driven equatorial waves, a linear continuously stratified ocean model is also used. Within 3 degrees S-3 degrees N of the equatorial region, the strong 40-60-day sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and thermocline variability result mainly from the first and second baroclinic modes equatorial Kelvin waves that are forced by intraseasonal zonal winds, with the second baroclinic mode playing a more important role. Sharp 40-50-day peaks of zonal and meridional winds appear in both the QuikSCAT and Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) data for the period 2002-03, and they are especially strong in 2002. Zonal wind anomaly in the central-western equatorial basin for the period 2000-06 is significantly correlated with SSHA across the equatorial basin, with simultaneous/ lag correlation ranging from-0.62 to 0.74 above 95% significance. Away from the equator (3 degrees-5 degrees N), however, sea level and thermocline variations in the 40-60-day band are caused largely by tropical instability waves (TIWs). On 10-40-day time scales and west of 10 degrees W, the spectral power of sea level and thermocline appears to be dominated by TIWs within 5 degrees S-5 degrees N of the equatorial region. The wind-driven circulation, however, also provides a significant contribution. Interestingly, east of 10 W, SSHA and thermocline variations at 10 40- day periods result almost entirely from wind-driven equatorial waves. During the boreal spring of 2002 when TIWs are weak, Kelvin waves dominate the SSHA across the equatorial basin (2 degrees S-2 degrees N). The observed quasi-biweekly Yanai waves are excited mainly by the quasi-biweekly meridional winds, and they contribute significantly to the SSHA and thermocline variations in 1 degrees-5 degrees N and 1 degrees-5 degrees S regions.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30-60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25A degrees S to 25A degrees N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60A degrees S and 65A degrees N. Near the equator (8A degrees S-8A degrees N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.

Dynamics of ''internal'' interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM

1] The poor predictability of the Indian summer monsoon ( ISM) appears to be due to the fact that a large fraction of interannual variability (IAV) is governed by unpredictable "internal'' low frequency variations. Mechanisms responsible for the internal IAV of the monsoon have not been clearly identified. Here, an attempt has been made to gain insight regarding the origin of internal IAV of the seasonal ( June - September, JJAS) mean rainfall from "internal'' IAV of the ISM simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) driven by fixed annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST). The underlying hypothesis that monsoon ISOs are responsible for internal IAV of the ISM is tested. The spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated summer intraseasonal oscillations ( ISOs) are found to be in good agreement with those observed. A long integration with the AGCM forced with observed SST, shows that ISO activity over the Asian monsoon region is not modulated by the observed SST variations. The internal IAV of ISM, therefore, appears to be decoupled from external IAV. Hence, insight gained from this study may be useful in understanding the observed internal IAV of ISM. The spatial structure of the ISOs has a significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season ( seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broad-band nature of the ISO spectrum allowing the time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relation is a manifestation of the binomial character of rainfall time series. The remaining 50% of the IAV may arise due to land-surface processes, interaction between high frequency variability and ISOs, etc.

The Indian monsoon and its variability

For over 300 years, the monsoon has been viewed as a gigantic land-sea breeze. It is shown in this paper that satellite and conventional observations support an alternative hypothesis, which considers the monsoon as a manifestation of seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). With the focus on the Indian monsoon, the mean seasonal pattern is described, and why it is difficult to simulate it is discussed. Some facets of the intraseasonal variation, such as active-weak cycles; break monsoon; and a special feature of intraseasonal variation over the region, namely, poleward propagations of the ITCZ at intervals of 2-6 weeks, are considered. Vertical moist stability is shown to be a key parameter in the variation of monthly convection over ocean and land as well as poleward propagations. Special features of the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon brought out by observations during a national observational experiment in 1999 are briefly described.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

Is the Indian Ocean SST variability a homogeneous diffusion process.

Whereas the predominance of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability is well established, no such consensus seems to have been reached by climate scientists regarding the Indian Ocean. While a number of researchers think that the Indian Ocean SST variability is dominated by an active dipolar-type mode of variability, similar to ENSO, others suggest that the variability is mostly passive and behaves like an autocorrelated noise. For example, it is suggested recently that the Indian Ocean SST variability is consistent with the null hypothesis of a homogeneous diffusion process. However, the existence of the basin-wide warming trend represents a deviation from a homogeneous diffusion process, which needs to be considered. An efficient way of detrending, based on differencing, is introduced and applied to the Hadley Centre ice and SST. The filtered SST anomalies over the basin (23.5N-29.5S, 30.5E-119.5E) are then analysed and found to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. The same differencing method is then applied to the smaller tropical Indian Ocean domain. This smaller domain is also inconsistent with the null hypothesis on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. In particular, it is found that the leading mode of variability yields the Indian Ocean dipole, and departs significantly from the null hypothesis only in the autumn season.

The impact of finer-resolution air-sea coupling on the intraseasonal oscillation of the Indian monsoon

The new HadKPP atmosphere–ocean coupled model is described and then used to determine the effects of sub-daily air–sea coupling and fine near-surface ocean vertical resolution on the representation of the Northern Hemisphere summer intra-seasonal oscillation. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to the K Profile Parameterization ocean-boundary-layer model. Four 30-member ensembles were performed that varied in oceanic vertical resolution between 1 m and 10 m and in coupling frequency between 3 h and 24 h. The 10 m, 24 h ensemble exhibited roughly 60% of the observed 30–50 day variability in sea-surface temperatures and rainfall and very weak northward propagation. Enhancing either only the vertical resolution or only the coupling frequency produced modest improvements in variability and only a standing intra-seasonal oscillation. Only the 1 m, 3 h configuration generated organized, northward-propagating convection similar to observations. Sub-daily surface forcing produced stronger upper-ocean temperature anomalies in quadrature with anomalous convection, which likely affected lower-atmospheric stability ahead of the convection, causing propagation. Well-resolved air–sea coupling did not improve the eastward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in this model. Upper-ocean vertical mixing and diurnal variability in coupled models must be improved to accurately resolve and simulate tropical sub-seasonal variability. In HadKPP, the mere presence of air–sea coupling was not sufficient to generate an intra-seasonal oscillation resembling observations.

Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system

Advances in weather and climate research have demonstrated the role of the stratosphere in the Earth system across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Stratospheric ozone loss has been identified as a key driver of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation trends, affecting ocean currents and carbon uptake, sea ice, and possibly even the Antarctic ice sheets. Stratospheric variability has also been shown to affect short term and seasonal forecasts, connecting the tropics and midlatitudes and guiding storm track dynamics. The two-way interactions between the stratosphere and the Earth system have motivated the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) DynVar activity to investigate the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on climate. This assessment will be made possible by two new multi-model datasets. First, roughly 10 models with a well resolved stratosphere are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), providing the first multi-model ensemble of climate simulations coupled from the stratopause to the sea floor. Second, the Stratosphere Historical Forecasting Project (SHFP) of WCRP's Climate Variability and predictability (CLIVAR) program is forming a multi-model set of seasonal hindcasts with stratosphere resolving models, revealing the impact of both stratospheric initial conditions and dynamics on intraseasonal prediction. The CMIP5 and SHFP model-data sets will offer an unprecedented opportunity to understand the role of the stratosphere in the natural and forced variability of the Earth system and to determine whether incorporating knowledge of the middle atmosphere improves seasonal forecasts and climate projections. Capsule New modeling efforts will provide unprecedented opportunities to harness our knowledge of the stratosphere to improve weather and climate prediction.