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Epidemiology of infectious disease in Illinois.

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Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases

We consider a hybrid model, created by coupling a continuum and an agent-based model of infectious disease. The framework of the hybrid model provides a mechanism to study the spread of infection at both the individual and population levels. This approach captures the stochastic spatial heterogeneity at the individual level, which is directly related to deterministic population level properties. This facilitates the study of spatial aspects of the epidemic process. A spatial analysis, involving counting the number of infectious agents in equally sized bins, reveals when the spatial domain is nonhomogeneous.

Evidence of unique genotypes of Beak and feather disease virus in Southern Africa

Psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD), caused by Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV), is the most significant infectious disease in psittacines. PBFD is thought to have originated in Australia but is now found worldwide; in Africa, it threatens the survival of the indigenous endangered Cape parrot and the vulnerable black-cheeked lovebird. We investigated the genetic diversity of putative BFDVs from southern Africa. Feathers and heparinized blood samples were collected from 27 birds representing 9 psittacine species, all showing clinical signs of PBFD. DNA extracted from these samples was used for PCR amplification of the putative BFDV coat protein (CP) gene. The nucleotide sequences of the CP genes of 19 unique BFDV isolates were determined and compared with the 24 previously described sequences of BFDV isolates from Australasia and America. Phylogenetic analysis revealed eight BFDV lineages, with the southern African isolates representing at least three distinctly unique genotypes; 10 complete genome sequences were determined, representing at least one of every distinct lineage. The nucleotide diversity of the southern African isolates was calculated to be 6.4% and is comparable to that found in Australia and New Zealand. BFDVs in southern Africa have, however, diverged substantially from viruses found in other parts of the world, as the average distance between the southern African isolates and BFDV isolates from Australia ranged from 8.3 to 10.8%. In addition to point mutations, recombination was found to contribute substantially to the level of genetic variation among BFDVs, with evidence of recombination in all but one of the genomes analyzed.

The IHR (2005), disease surveillance, and the individual in global health politics

Since the revisions to the International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, much attention has turned to two concerns relating to infectious disease control. The first is how to assist states to strengthen their capacity to identify and verify public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC). The second is the question of how the World Health Organization (WHO) will operate its expanded mandate under the revised IHR. Very little attention has been paid to the potential individual power that has been afforded under the IHR revisions – primarily through the first inclusion of human rights principles into the instrument and the allowance for the WHO to receive non-state surveillance intelligence and informal reports of health emergencies. These inclusions mark the individual as a powerful actor, but also recognise the vulnerability of the individual to the whim of the state in outbreak response and containment. In this paper we examine why these changes to the IHR occurred and explore the consequence of expanding the sovereignty-as-responsibility concept to disease outbreak response. To this end our paper considers both the strengths and weaknesses of incorporating reports from non-official sources and including human rights principles in the IHR framework.

The international politics of disease reporting : towards post-Westphalianism?

Since the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, there has been much discussion about whether the international community has moved into a new post-Westphalian era, where states increasingly recognize certain shared norms that guide what they ought to do in responding to infectious disease outbreaks. In this article I identify this new obligation as the ‘duty to report’, and examine competing accounts on the degree to which states appreciate this new obligation are considered by examining state behaviour during the H5N1 human infectious outbreaks in East Asia (since 2004). The article examines reporting behaviour for H5N1 human infectious cases in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam from 2004 to 2010. The findings lend strong support to the claim that East Asian states have come to accept and comply with the duty to report infectious disease outbreaks and that the assertions of sovereignty in response to global health governance frameworks have not systematically inhibited reporting compliance.

What does it mean to 'securitize' infectious diseases?

This paper seeks to explain how the selective securitization of infectious disease arose, and to analyze the policy successes from this move. It is argued that despite some success, such as the revised International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, there remain serious deficiencies in the political outputs from the securitization of infectious disease.

Systematic Review Protocol : "Are community-based interventions effective in identifying and responding to emerging zoonotic infectious diseases?"

Review question/objective The objective of this review is to identify the effectiveness of surveillance systems and community-based interventions in identifying and responding to emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infections in Southeast Asia (SE Asia). More specifically the research questions are: 1. What is the effectiveness of community-based surveillance interventions designed to identify emerging zoonotic infectious diseases? 2. What is the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical community-based interventions designed to prevent transmission of emerging zoonotic infectious diseases? 3. How do factors related to the emergence and management of emerging zoonotic infectious diseases impact the effectiveness of interventions designed to identify and respond to them?

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine preventable infectious diseases and immunisation service delivery system

Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

Hand, foot and mouth disease in China: Evaluating an automated system for the detection of outbreaks

Objective To evaluate the performance of China’s infectious disease automated alert and response system in the detection of outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease. Methods We estimated size, duration and delay in reporting HFM disease outbreaks from cases notified between 1 May 2008 and 30 April 2010 and between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012, before and after automatic alert and response included HFM disease. Sensitivity, specificity and timeliness of detection of aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease outbreaks were estimated by comparing automated detections to observations of public health staff. Findings The alert and response system recorded 106 005 aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012 – a mean of 5.6 aberrations per 100 days in each county that reported HFM disease. The response system had a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 95.0%. The mean delay between the reporting of the first case of an outbreak and detection of that outbreak by the response system was 2.1 days. Between the first and second study periods, the mean size of an HFM disease outbreak decreased from 19.4 to 15.8 cases and the mean interval between the onset and initial reporting of such an outbreak to the public health emergency reporting system decreased from 10.0 to 9.1 days. Conclusion The automated alert and response system shows good sensitivity in the detection of HFM disease outbreaks and appears to be relatively rapid. Continued use of this system should allow more effective prevention and limitation of such outbreaks in China.

Tadpole mouthpart depigmentation as an accurate indicator of chytridiomycosis, an emerging disease of amphibians

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, and its role in causing population declines and species extinctions worldwide has created an urgent need for methods to detect it. Several reports indicate that in anurans chytridiomycosis can cause the depigmentation of tadpole tnouthparts, but the accuracy of using depigmentation to determine disease status remains uncertain. Our objective was to determine for the Mountain Yellow-legged Frog (Rana muscosa) whether visual inspections of the extent of tadpole mouthpart depigmentation could be used to accurately categorize individual tadpoles or R. muscosa populations as B. dendrobatidis-positive or negative. This was accomplished by assessing the degree of mouthpart depigmentation in tadpoles of known disease status (based on PCR assays). The depigmentation of R. muscosa tadpole mouthparts was associated with the presence of B. dendrobatidis, and this association was particularly strong for upper jaw sheaths. Using a rule that classifies tadpoles with upper jaw sheaths that are 100% pigmented as uninfected and those with jaw sheaths that are <100% pigmented as infected resulted in the infection status of 86% of the tadpoles being correctly classified. By applying this rule to jaw sheath pigmentation scores averaged across all tadpoles inspected per site, we were able to correctly categorize the infection status of 92% of the study populations. Similar research on additional anurans is critically needed to determine how broadly applicable our results for R. muscosa are to other species.