Correlation shifts and real estate portfolio management

The success of any diversification strategy depends upon the quality of the estimated correlation between assets. It is well known, however, that there is a tendency for the average correlation among assets to increase when the market falls and vice-versa. Thus, assuming that the correlation between assets is a constant over time seems unrealistic. Nonetheless, these changes in the correlation structure as a consequence of changes in the market’s return suggests that correlation shifts can be modelled as a function of the market return. This is the idea behind the model of Spurgin et al (2000), which models the beta or systematic risk, of the asset as a function of the returns in the market. This is an approach that offers particular attractions to fund managers as it suggest ways by which they can adjust their portfolios to benefit from changes in overall market conditions. In this paper the Spurgin et al (2000) model is applied to 31 real estate market segments in the UK using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2000:12. The results show that a number of market segments display significant negative correlation shifts, while others show significantly positive correlation shifts. Using this information fund managers can make strategic and tactical portfolio allocation decisions based on expectations of market volatility alone and so help them achieve greater portfolio performance overall and especially during different phases of the real estate cycle.

PRiMA : project risk management approach

Esta tese propõe uma abordagem sistemática para gerenciar riscos em projetos de software, por meio da adaptação de processos. O objetivo da abordagem é permitir a elaboração de um processo específico para um dado projeto, visando minimizar a exposição do projeto aos riscos, identificados de acordo com o contexto do projeto. As atividades, possíveis de serem executadas em processos de projetos de uma organização, são estruturadas em um framework de processo (PRiMA-F), que inclui também os padrões de processo e organizacionais usados para descrever ações preventivas e corretivas aos riscos. A estruturação do framework básico, construído pela organização, poderá permitir distintas instanciações, como por exemplo, processos de acordo com o paradigma ágil ou planejado, ou em conformidade com normas de qualidade, como CMM e outras; além dos padrões organizacionais e de processo para gestão de riscos de projeto. PRiMA-F define o escopo maior do processo de software da organização e este é adaptado de acordo com os riscos identificados para o projeto e suas necessidades específicas, dando origem ao processo a ser usado no projeto. adaptação. Os guias descrevem como adaptar elementos de processo de acordo com o tamanho e o formalismo do projeto. Configurações de processo são modelos prédefinidos, visando atender projetos típicos ou modelos de qualidade. Prima-F pode ser estendida para novos riscos, padrões e processos, de acordo com as necessidades da organização. Utilizando o paradigma Goal/Question/Metric, no framework de processo (PRiMAF), são definidas métricas do processo de software, associadas aos riscos, para serem usadas para acompanhar o progresso dos fatores de risco, possibilitando ao gerente de projeto tomar ações corretivas, quando necessário e no momento adequado. As ações corretivas são descritas usando padrões organizacionais e de processo. Uma ferramenta de apoio à sistemática proposta (PRiMA-Tool) foi desenvolvida. Estudos de caso foram elaborados para validar a sistemática proposta

Trinidad and Tobago: public sector investment programming and project cycle management in Trinidad and Tobago

Includes bibliography

The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach

The study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.

El análisis de la dirección integrada de proyectos (project & construction management) en el marco europeo: propuesta de regulación en España y su inclusión en la ley de la ordenación de la edificación

El presente trabajo de Tesis Doctoral surge de la Figura de la Dirección Integrada de Proyecto en Edificación (“Project & Construction Management”) y su analisis de la situación regulatoria en la legislación española. El primer planteamiento fue pensar en la situación actual de esta figura en el contexto internacional, para analizar su repercusión en el sector de la edificación, lo cual me llevo a cabo las siguientes preguntas que he reuelto en esta investigación. ¿ Como surge el ¨Project & Construction Management”? ¿ Cuales son sus actividades, funciones y cometidos? ¿ Existe el ¨Project & Construction Management” en otros países? ¿Hay regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management” en esos paises? ¿Cómo es la regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management”? ¿Existe demanda del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España? ¿Cómo es esa demanda en España, y como se puede cuantificar? ¿Existe regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España? ¿ Como debería ser la regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España? Todas las preguntas anteriores las he ido respondiendo con el presente trabajo, llegando a una serie de respuestas, que están reflejadas en el desarrollo del presente trabajo y que resumo: - EL ¨Project & Construction Management” surge a principios del siglo XX en USA, desarrollándose como una disciplina con metodología propia y extendiéndose por otros países. - EL ¨Project & Construction Management” es una disciplina, basada en una metodología propia con herramientas y técnicas para organizar cualquier 14 proyecto de cualquier tipo, pero en este caso un proyecto de edificación, para lo cual he definido con todo detalle esta figura. - El origen del ¨Project & Construction Management” es anglosajón, concretamente en USA, extendiendose luego al Reino Unido, a Europa (Francia y Alemania), a Asia, a América del Sur y a Oceanía. - En todos los paises estudiados (Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Francia y Alemania) existe una regulación sobre el ¨Project & Construction Management” que me ha servido de base comparativa para introducirla en España. - Hay muchas empresas en España (Nacionales e Internacionales) que ejercen su actividad dentro de este sector, por lo que para realizar un estudio más profundo, hice una muestra de las 30 empresas más significativas, prepare un cuestionario, dividido en 5 apartados: Organizativo, Sectorial, Cualitativo, Cuantitativo y Profesional para obtener una radiogradía de la situación real del sector, y así valorar cual es la importancia de este agente. - Estudié las posibles regulaciones del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España y no encontré ninguna. - El lugar idóneo para que se regule al ¨Project & Construction Management” es la Ley de Ordenación de la Edificación (LOE), ya que la jurisprudencia (sentencias de los tribunales de justicia españoles) le ha asimilado con los agentes de la LOE y se ha basado para absolver o condenar en la Ley de Ordenación de la Edificación. Por lo que el Objetivo fundamental de esta tesis ha sido regular la figura del ¨Project & Construction Management”, traducirla al Castellano, definirla y realizar una estructura de Agente de la Edificación, según la LOE, para poder introducirla dentro de la Legislación Española, con el objeto de mejorar la calidad de la edificación, proteger al usuario, estableciendo responsabilidades y garantías y proteger al ¨Project & Construction Management” de las responsabilidades solidarias. ABSTRACT This Doctoral Thesis figure emerges from the Integrated Building Project ("Project & Construction Management") and his analysis of the regulatory situation in the Spanish legislation. The first approach was to think of the current situation of this figure in the international context, to analyze its impact on the building sector, which I conducted the following questions that I have met in this research. - How did the “Project & Construction Management "? - What are your activities, functions and duties? - Is there a “Project & Construction Management "in other countries? - Is there regulation “Project & Construction Management "in these countries? - How is regulation of ¨ Project & Construction Management "? - Is there demand “Project & Construction Management "in Spain? - How is that demand in Spain, and as you can quantify? - Is there regulation “Project & Construction Management "in Spain? - How should regulation ¨Project & Construction Management "in Spain? All the above questions have been answered with this study, leading to a series of responses, which are reflected in the development of this study and are summarized: - The ¨ Project & Construction Management "comes early twentieth century in the USA, developed as a discipline with its own methodology and extending other countries. - The ¨ Project & Construction Management "is a discipline based on a metodology own tools and techniques to organize any project of any kind, but in this case a building project, for which I have defined in detail this figure. - The origin of ¨Project & Construction Management "is Anglo-Saxon, particularly in USA, then spreading to the UK, Europe (France and Germany), Asia, South America and Oceania. - In all countries studied (USA, UK, France and Germany) there is a regulation on ¨Project & Construction Management "has helped me to introduce comparative base in Spain. - There are many companies in Spain (National and International) who perform work within this sector, so for further study, I made a sample of the 30 most important companies, prepare a questionnaire, divided into five sections: Organizational , Sector, Qualitative, Quantitative and Professional radiography for a real situation of the sector, and thus assess which is the importance of this agent. - Study the possible regulations ¨Project & Construction Management "in Spain and found none. - The place to be regulated to ¨Project & Construction Management "is the Law of Construction Planning (LOE), as the case law (judgments of the courts Spanish) has assimilated LOE agents and has been based to absolve or condemn Law Construction Planning. So the objective of this thesis has been regular figure ¨ Project & Construction Management ", translated to spanish, define and perform an Agent structure of the Building, as the LOE, to enter into Spanish law, in order to improve the quality of the building, protecting the user, establishing responsibilities and guarantees and protect the ¨ Project & Construction Management "solidarity responsibilities.

El análisis de la construcción sin pérdidas (Lean Construction) y su relación con el Project & Construction Management : propuesta de regulación en España y su inclusión en la ley de la ordenación de la edificación

El presente trabajo se basa en la filosofía de la Construcción sin Pérdidas (“Lean Construction”), analizando la situación de esta filosofía en el sector de la edificación en el contexto internacional y español, respondiendo las siguientes preguntas: 1. ¿Cómo surge el “Lean Construction”? 2. ¿Cuáles son sus actividades, funciones y cometidos? 3. ¿Existe regulación del ¨Lean Construction” en otros países? 4. ¿Existe demanda del ¨Lean Construction” en España? 5. ¿Existe regulación del ¨Lean Construction” en España? 6. ¿Cómo debería ser la regulación ¨Lean Construction” en España? 7. ¿Cuál es la relación del “Lean Construction” con el “Project & Construction Management”? 8. ¿Cómo debería ser la regulación de “Lean Construction” en España considerando su relación con el “Project & Construction Management”? Las preguntas indicadas las hemos respondido detalladamente en el presente trabajo, a continuación se resume las respuestas a dichas preguntas: 1. El “Lean Construction” surge en agosto de 1992, cuando el investigador finlandés Lauri Koskela publicó en la Universidad de Stanford el reporte TECHNICAL REPORT N° 72 titulado “Application of the New Production Philosophy to Construction”. Un año más tarde el Dr. Koskela invitó a un grupo de especialistas en construcción al primer workshop de esta materia en Finlandia, dando origen al International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC) lo que ha permitido extender la filosofía a EEUU, Europa, América, Asia, Oceanía y África. “Lean Construction” es un sistema basado en el enfoque “Lean Production” desarrollado en Japón por Toyota Motors a partir de los años cincuenta, sistema que permitió a sus fábricas producir unidades con mayor eficiencia que las industrias americanas, con menores recursos, en menor tiempo, y con un número menor de errores de fabricación. 2. El sistema “Lean Construction” busca maximizar el valor y disminuir las pérdidas de los proyectos generando una coordinación eficiente entre los involucrados, manejando un proyecto como un sistema de producción, estrechando la colaboración entre los participantes de los proyectos, capacitándoles y empoderándoles, fomentando una cultura de cambio. Su propósito es desarrollar un proceso de construcción en el que no hayan accidentes, ni daños a equipos, instalaciones, entorno y comunidad, que se realice en conformidad con los requerimientos contractuales, sin defectos, en el plazo requerido, respetando los costes presupuestados y con un claro enfoque en la eliminación o reducción de las pérdidas, es decir, las actividades que no generen beneficios. El “Last Planner System”, o “Sistema del Último Planificador”, es un sistema del “Lean Construction” que por su propia naturaleza protege a la planificación y, por ende, ayuda a maximizar el valor y minimizar las pérdidas, optimizando de manera sustancial los sistemas de seguridad y salud. El “Lean Construction” se inició como un concepto enfocado a la ejecución de las obras, posteriormente se aplicó la filosofía a todas las etapas del proyecto. Actualmente considera el desarrollo total de un proyecto, desde que nace la idea hasta la culminación de la obra y puesta en marcha, considerando el ciclo de vida completo del proyecto. Es una filosofía de gestión, metodologías de trabajo y una cultura empresarial orientada a la eficiencia de los procesos y flujos. La filosofía “Lean Construction” se está expandiendo en todo el mundo, además está creciendo en su alcance, influyendo en la gestión contractual de los proyectos. Su primera evolución consistió en la creación del sistema “Lean Project Delivery System”, que es el concepto global de desarrollo de proyectos. Posteriormente, se proponen el “Target Value Design”, que consiste en diseñar de forma colaborativa para alcanzar los costes y el valor requerido, y el “Integrated Project Delivery”, en relación con sistemas de contratos relacionales (colaborativos) integrados, distintos a los contratos convencionales. 3. Se verificó que no existe regulación específica del ¨Lean Construction” en otros países, en otras palabras, no existe el agente con el nombre específico de “Especialista en Lean Construction” o similar, en consecuencia, es un agente adicional en el proyecto de la edificación, cuyas funciones y cometidos se pueden solapar con los del “Project Manager”, “Construction Manager”, “Contract Manager”, “Safety Manager”, entre otros. Sin embargo, se comprobó la existencia de formatos privados de contratos colaborativos de Integrated Project Delivery, los cuales podrían ser tomados como unas primeras referencias para futuras regulaciones. 4. Se verificó que sí existe demanda del ¨Lean Construction” en el desarrollo del presente trabajo, aunque aún su uso es incipiente, cada día existe más interesados en el tema. 5. No existe regulación del ¨Lean Construction” en España. 6. Uno de los objetivos fundamentales de esta tesis es el de regular esta figura cuando actúe en un proyecto, definir y realizar una estructura de Agente de la Edificación, según la Ley de Ordenación de la Edificación (LOE), y de esta manera poder introducirla dentro de la Legislación Española, protegiéndola de eventuales responsabilidades civiles. En España existe jurisprudencia (sentencias de los tribunales de justicia españoles) con jurisdicción civil basada en la LOE para absolver o condenar a agentes de la edificación que son definidos en los tribunales como “gestores constructivos” o similares. Por este motivo, en un futuro los tribunales podrían dictaminar responsabilidades solidarias entre el especialista “Lean Construction” y otros agentes del proyecto, dependiendo de sus actuaciones, y según se implemente el “Lean Project Delivery System”, el “Target Value Design” y el “Integrated Project Delivery”. Por otro lado, es posible que el nivel de actuación del especialista “Lean Construcción” pueda abarcar la gestión del diseño, la gestión de la ejecución material (construcción), la gestión de contratos, o la gestión integral de todo el proyecto de edificación, esto último, en concordancia con la última Norma ISO 21500:2012 o UNE-ISO 21500:2013 Directrices para la dirección y gestión de proyectos. En consecuencia, se debería incorporar adecuadamente a uno o más agentes de la edificación en la LOE de acuerdo a sus funciones y responsabilidades según los niveles de actuación del “Especialista en Lean Construction”. Se propone la creación de los siguientes agentes: Gestor del Diseño, Gestor Constructivo y Gestor de Contratos, cuyas definiciones están desarrolladas en este trabajo. Estas figuras son definidas de manera general, puesto que cualquier “Project Manager” o “DIPE”, gestor BIM (Building Information Modeling), o similar, puede actuar como uno o varios de ellos. También se propone la creación del agente “Gestor de la Construcción sin Pérdidas”, como aquel agente que asume las actuaciones del “gestor de diseño”, “gestor constructivo” y “gestor de contratos” con un enfoque en los principios del Lean Production. 7. En la tesis se demuestra, por medio del uso de la ISO 21500, que ambos sistemas son complementarios, de manera que los proyectos pueden tener ambos enfoques y ser compatibilizados. Un proyecto que use el “Project & Construction Management” puede perfectamente apoyarse en las herramientas y técnicas del “Lean Construction” para asegurar la eliminación o reducción de las pérdidas, es decir, las actividades que no generen valor, diseñando el sistema de producción, el sistema de diseño o el sistema de contratos. 8. Se debería incorporar adecuadamente al agente de la edificación “Especialista en Lean Construction” o similar y al agente ¨Especialista en Project & Construction Management” o DIPE en la Ley de Ordenación de la Edificación (LOE) de acuerdo a sus funciones y responsabilidades, puesto que la jurisprudencia se ha basado para absolver o condenar en la referida Ley. Uno de los objetivos fundamentales de esta tesis es el de regular la figura del “Especialista en Lean Construction” cuando actúa simultáneamente con el DIPE, y realizar una estructura de Agente de la Edificación según la LOE, y de esta manera protegerlo de eventuales responsabilidades solidarias. Esta investigación comprueba que la propuesta de definición del agente de edificación DIPE, según la LOE, presentada en la tesis doctoral del Doctor Manuel Soler Severino es compatible con las nuevas definiciones propuestas. El agente DIPE puede asumir los roles de los diferentes gestores propuestos en esta tesis si es que se especializa en dichas materias, o, si lo estima pertinente, recomendar sus contrataciones. ABSTRACT This work is based on the Lean Construction philosophy; an analysis is made herein with regard to the situation of this philosophy in the building sector within the international and Spanish context, replying to the following questions: 1. How did the concept of Lean Construction emerge? 2. Which are the activities, functions and objectives of Lean Construction? 3. Are there regulations on Lean Construction in other countries? 4. Is there a demand for Lean Construction in Spain? 5. Are there regulations on Lean Construction in Spain? 6. How should regulations on Lean Construction be developed in Spain? 7. What is the relationship between Lean Construction and the Project & Construction Management? 8. How should regulations on Lean Construction be developed in Spain considering its relationship with the Project & Construction Management? We have answered these questions in detail here and the replies are summarized as follows: 1. The concept of Lean Construction emerged in august of 1992, when Finnish researcher Lauri Koskela published in Stanford University TECHNICAL REPORT N° 72 entitled “Application of the New Production Philosophy to Construction”. A year later, Professor Koskela invited a group of construction specialists to Finland to the first workshop conducted on this matter; thus, the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC) was established, which has contributed to extending the philosophy to the United States, Europe, the Americas, Asia, Oceania, and Africa. Lean Construction is a system based on the Lean Production approach, which was developed in Japan by Toyota Motors in the 1950s. Thanks to this system, the Toyota plants were able to produce more units, with greater efficiency than the American industry, less resources, in less time, and with fewer manufacturing errors. 2. The Lean Construction system aims at maximizing the value of projects while reducing waste, producing an effective coordination among those involved; it manages projects as a production system, enhancing collaboration between the parties that participate in the projects while building their capacities, empowering them, and promoting a culture of change. Its purpose is to develop a construction process free of accidents, without damages to the equipment, facilities, environment and community, flawless, in accordance with contractual requirements, within the terms established, respecting budgeted costs, and with a clear approach to eliminating or reducing waste, that is, activities that do not generate benefits. The Last Planner System is a Lean Construction system, which by its own nature protects planning and, therefore, helps to maximize the value and minimize waste, optimizing substantially the safety and health systems. Lean Construction started as a concept focused on the execution of works, and subsequently the philosophy was applied to all the stages of the project. At present it considers the project’s total development, since the time ideas are born until the completion and start-up of the work, taking into account the entire life cycle of the project. It is a philosophy of management, work methodologies, and entrepreneurial culture aimed at the effectiveness of processes and flows. The Lean Construction philosophy is extending all over the world and its scope is becoming broader, having greater influence on the contractual management of projects. It evolved initially through the creation of the Lean Project Delivery System, a global project development concept. Later on, the Target Value Design was developed, based on collaborative design to achieve the costs and value required, as well as the Integrated Project Delivery, in connection with integrated relational (collaborative) contract systems, as opposed to conventional contracts. 3. It was verified that no specific regulations on Lean Construction exist in other countries, in other words, there are no agents with the specific name of “Lean Construction Specialist” or other similar names; therefore, it is an additional agent in building projects, which functions and objectives can overlap those of the Project Manager, Construction Manager, Contract Manager, or Safety Manager, among others. However, the existence of private collaborative contracts of Integrated Project Delivery was confirmed, which could be considered as first references for future regulations. 4. There is a demand for Lean Construction in the development of this work; even though it is still emerging, there is a growing interest in this topic. 5. There are no regulations on Lean Construction in Spain. 6. One of the main objectives of this thesis is to regulate this role when acting in a project, and to define and develop a Building Agent structure, according to the Building Standards Law (LOE by its acronym in Spanish), in order to be able to incorporate it into the Spanish law, protecting it from civil liabilities. In Spain there is jurisprudence in civil jurisdiction based on the LOE to acquit or convict building agents, which are defined in the courts as “construction managers” or similar. For this reason, courts could establish in the future joint and several liabilities between the Lean Construction Specialist and other agents of the project, depending on their actions and based on the implementation of the Lean Project Delivery System, the Target Value Design, and the Integrated Project Delivery. On the other hand, it is possible that the level of action of the Lean Construction Specialist may comprise design management, construction management and contract management, or the integral management of the entire building project in accordance with the last ISO 21500:2012 or UNE-ISO 21500:2013, guidelines for the management of projects. Accordingly, one or more building agents should be appropriately incorporated into the LOE according to their functions and responsibilities and based on the levels of action of the Lean Construction Specialist. The creation of the following agents is proposed: Design Manager, Construction Manager, and Contract Manager, which definitions are developed in this work. These agents are defined in general, since any Project Manager or DIPE, Building Information Modeling (BIM) Manager or similar, may act as one or as many of them. The creation of the Lean Construction Manager is also proposed, as the agent that takes on the role of the Design Manager, Construction Manager and Contract Manager with a focus on the Lean Production principles. 7. In the thesis it is demonstrated that through the implementation of the ISO 21500, both systems are supplementary, so projects may have both approaches and be compatible. A project that applies the Project & Construction Management may perfectly have the support of the tools, techniques and practices of Lean Construction to ensure the elimination or reduction of losses, that is, those activities that do not generate value, thus designing the production system, the design system, or the contract system. 8. The Lean Construction Specialist or similar and the Specialist in Project & Construction Management should be incorporated appropriately into the LOE according to their functions and responsibilities, since jurisprudence has been based on such Law to acquit or convict. One of the main objectives of this thesis is the regulate the role of the Lean Construction Specialist when acting simultaneously with the DIPE, and to develop a structure of the building agent, according to the LOE, and in this way protect such agent from joint and several liabilities. This research proves that the proposal to define the DIPE building agent, according to the LOE, and presented in the doctoral dissertation of Manuel Soler Severino, Ph.D. is compatible with the new definitions proposed. The DIPE agent may assume the roles of the different managers proposed in this thesis if he specializes in those topics or, if deemed pertinent, recommends that they be engaged.

Project risk management in analytic framework

Risks and uncertainties are part and parcel of any project as projects are planned with many assumptions. Therefore, managing those risks is the key to project success. Although risk is present in all most all projects, large-scale construction projects are most vulnerable. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively posses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. This study introduces an analytical framework for managing risk in projects. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are analyzed, and alternative responses are derived with cost implication for mitigating the identified risks. A decision-making framework is then formulated using decision tree. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative. The responses, which require least cost is selected. The entire methodology has been explained through a case study of an oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in managing projects has been demonstrated. © INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Integrating skills profiling and purchasing portfolio management:an opportunity for building purchasing capability

Kralijc’s (1983) purchasing portfolio approach holds that different types of purchases need different sourcing strategies, underpinned by distinct sets of resources and practices. The approach is widely deployed in business and extensively researched, and yet little research has been conducted on how knowledge and skills vary across a portfolio of purchases. This study extends the body of knowledge on purchasing portfolio management, and its application in the strategic development of purchasing in an organization, and on human resource management in the purchasing function. A novel approach to profiling purchasing skills is proposed, which is well suited to dynamic environments which require flexibility. In a survey, experienced purchasing personnel described a specific purchase and profiled the skills required for effective performance in purchasing that item. Purchases were categorized according to their importance to the organization (internally-oriented evaluation of cost and production factors) and to the supply market (externally-oriented evaluation of commercial risk and uncertainty). Through cluster analysis three key types of purchase situations were identified. The skills required for effective purchasing vary significantly across the three clusters (for 22 skills, p<0.01). Prior research shows that global organizations use the purchasing portfolio approach to develop sourcing strategies, but also aggregate analyses to inform the design of purchasing arrangements (local vs global) and to develop their improvement plans. Such organizations would also benefit from profiling skills by purchase type. We demonstrate how the survey can be adapted to provide a management tool for global firms seeking to improve procurement capability, flexibility and performance.