Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent

The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979–2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979–2010) and an extended observational record (1953–2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5–3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979–2010) to AMO driven variability.

Climatic control of the biomass-burning decline in the Americas after AD 1500

The significance and cause of the decline in biomass burning across the Americas after AD 1500 is a topic of considerable debate. We synthesized charcoal records (a proxy for biomass burning) from the Americas and from the remainder of the globe over the past 2000 years, and compared these with paleoclimatic records and population reconstructions. A distinct post-AD 1500 decrease in biomass burning is evident, not only in the Americas, but also globally, and both are similar in duration and timing to ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change. There is temporal and spatial variability in the expression of the biomass-burning decline across the Americas but, at a regional–continental scale, ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change was likely more important than indigenous population collapse in driving this decline.

The atmospheric impact of uncertainties in recent Arctic Sea ice reconstructions

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is further developed by performing a set of simulations using the third Hadley Centre Coupled Atmospheric Model (HadAM3). The model was driven with monthly climatologies of sea ice fractions derived from three of these records to investigate potential implications of sea ice inaccuracies for climate simulations. The standard sea ice climatology from the Met Office provided a control. This study focuses on the effects of actual inaccuracies of concentration retrievals, which vary spatially and are larger in summer than winter. The smaller sea ice discrepancies in winter have a much larger influence on climate than the much greater summer sea ice differences. High sensitivity to sea ice prescription was observed, even though no SST feedbacks were included. Significant effects on surface fields were observed in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. Arctic average surface air temperature anomalies in winter vary by 2.5°C, and locally exceed 12°C. Arctic mean sea level pressure varies by up to 5 mb locally. Anomalies extend to 45°N over North America and Eurasia but not to lower latitudes, and with limited changes in circulation above the boundary layer. No statistically significant impact on climate variability was simulated, in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Results suggest that the uncertainty in summer sea ice prescription is not critical but that winter values require greater accuracy, with the caveats that the influences of ocean–sea ice feedbacks were not included in this study.

Accelerating shrinkage of Patagonian glaciers from the Little Ice Age (∼AD 1870) to 2011

We used Little Ice Age (LIA) trimlines and moraines to assess changes in South American glaciers over the last ∼140 years. We determined the extent and length of 640 glaciers during the LIA (∼ AD 1870) and 626 glaciers (the remainder having entirely disappeared) in 1986, 2001 and 2011. The calculated reduction in glacierized area between the LIA and 2011 is 4131 km2 (15.4%), with 660 km2 (14.2%) being lost from the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI), 1643 km2 (11.4%) from the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI) and 306 km2 (14.4%) from Cordillera Darwin. Latitude, size and terminal environment (calving or land-terminating) exert the greatest control on rates of shrinkage. Small, northerly, land-terminating glaciers shrank fastest. Annual rates of area loss increased dramatically after 2001 for mountain glaciers north of 52° S and the large icefields, with the NPI and SPI now shrinking at 9.4 km2 a–1 (0.23% a–1) and 20.5 km2 a–1 (0.15% a–1) respectively. The shrinkage of glaciers between 52° S and 54° S accelerated after 1986, and rates of shrinkage from 1986 to 2011 remained steady. Icefield outlet glaciers, isolated glaciers and ice caps south of 54° S shrank faster from 1986 to 2001 than they did from 2001 to 2011.

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the inter-annual signature of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Sea Surface Temperature (SST), on to which the ozone-hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone-hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow-timescale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea-ice cover year-round. This two-timescale behavior - rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming - is found in the two coupled models analysed, one with an idealized geometry, the other a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the timescale of the transition from cooling to warming, and their uncertainties are described. Finally we discuss the implications of our results for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone-hole on SST and sea-ice extent. %Interannual variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea ice covary such that an increase and southward shift in the surface westerlies (a positive phase of the SAM) coincides with a cooling of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around 70-50$^\circ$S and an expansion of the sea ice cover, as seen in observations and models alike. Yet, in modeling studies, the Southern Ocean warms and sea ice extent decreases in response to sustained, multi-decadal positive SAM-like wind anomalies driven by 20th century ozone depletion. Why does the Southern Ocean appear to have disparate responses to SAM-like variability on interannual and multidecadal timescales? Here it is demonstrated that the response of the Southern Ocean to ozone depletion has a fast and a slow response. The fast response is similar to the interannual variability signature of the SAM. It is dominated by an enhanced northward Ekman drift, which transports heat northward and causes negative SST anomalies in summertime, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift causes a region of Ekman divergence around 70-50$^\circ$S, which results in upwelling of warmer waters from below the mixed layer. With sustained westerly wind enhancement in that latitudinal band, the warming due to the anomalous upwelling of warm waters eventually dominates over the cooling from the anomalous Ekman drift. Hence, the slow response ultimately results in a positive SST anomaly and a reduction in the sea ice cover year round. We demonstrate this behavior in two models: one with an idealized geometry and another, more detailed, global climate model. However, the models disagree on the timescale of transition from the fast (cooling) to the slow (warming) response. Processes that controls this transition and their uncertainties are discussed.

Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at preindustrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice-free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model preindustrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

Líneas de tensión: gestión política de la reforma económica. El Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad (ICE) y la privatización de empresas públicas

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RB30-246 Testing Ice Cream for Butterfat

Butterfat is usually the most expensive ingredient of ice cream; hence, great care is necessary in controllng its use. The manufacturer of ice cream, whether doing a large or a small volume of business, must manufacture a product that will comply with the established fat standard. Some means of determining the percentage of butterfat in the product must be available in order to establish this control. This 1930 research bulletin discusses the different testing equipment used to test butterfat in ice cream.

An ice machine adapted into an autonomous photovoltaic system without batteries using a variable-speed drive

The adaptation of a commercially available ice machine for autonomous photovoltaic operation without batteries is presented. In this adaptation a 1040 W(p) photovoltaic array directly feeds a variable-speed drive and a 24 V(dc) source. The drive runs an induction motor coupled by belt-and-pulley to an open reciprocating compressor, while the dc source supplies a solenoid valve and the control electronics. Motor speed and refrigerant evaporation pressure are set aiming at continuously matching system power demand to photovoltaic power availability. The resulting system is a simple integration of robust, standard, readily available parts. It produces 27 kg of ice in a clear-sky day and has ice production costs around US$0.30/kg. Although a few machine features might be specific to Brazil, its technical and economical guidelines are applicable elsewhere. Copyright (C); 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nitric Oxide Mediates the Hormonal Control of Crassulacean Acid Metabolism Expression in Young Pineapple Plants

Genotypic, developmental, and environmental factors converge to determine the degree of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) expression. To characterize the signaling events controlling CAM expression in young pineapple (Ananas comosus) plants, this photosynthetic pathway was modulated through manipulations in water availability. Rapid, intense, and completely reversible up-regulation in CAM expression was triggered by water deficit, as indicated by the rise in nocturnal malate accumulation and in the expression and activity of important CAM enzymes. During both up-and down-regulation of CAM, the degree of CAM expression was positively and negatively correlated with the endogenous levels of abscisic acid (ABA) and cytokinins, respectively. When exogenously applied, ABA stimulated and cytokinins repressed the expression of CAM. However, inhibition of water deficit-induced ABA accumulation did not block the up-regulation of CAM, suggesting that a parallel, non-ABA-dependent signaling route was also operating. Moreover, strong evidence revealed that nitric oxide (NO) may fulfill an important role during CAM signaling. Up-regulation of CAM was clearly observed in NO-treated plants, and a conspicuous temporal and spatial correlation was also evident between NO production and CAM expression. Removal of NO from the tissues either by adding NO scavenger or by inhibiting NO production significantly impaired ABA-induced up-regulation of CAM, indicating that NO likely acts as a key downstream component in the ABA-dependent signaling pathway. Finally, tungstate or glutamine inhibition of the NO-generating enzyme nitrate reductase completely blocked NO production during ABA-induced up-regulation of CAM, characterizing this enzyme as responsible for NO synthesis during CAM signaling in pineapple plants.

Comparison of application times for ice packs used to relieve perineal pain after normal birth: a randomised clinical trial

Aims and objectives. To compare the effect of an ice pack applied for 10, 15 and 20 minutes to relieve perineal pain after birth. Background. Perineal pain after vaginal birth, with or without vaginal trauma, is one of the most common morbidities reported for postnatal women. Cryotherapy has been used in postpartum period to relieve perineal pain and investigated in several studies. However, cryotherapy treatment protocols in perineal care vary widely regarding temperature, frequency and duration of the application. Design. A controlled trial, randomised for two groups and with a third group as a historical control. Method. The intervention was carried out in a maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The study population consisted of three groups of 38 women who used an ice pack on the perineum, in a single application: group A-10 minutes; group B-15 minutes; group C-20 minutes (historical control from another clinical trial). Participants perineal pain magnitude was evaluated through a numerical scale (010), at four different points: before the cryotherapy; immediately after and at 20 and 40 minutes after cryotherapy. Results. After application of the ice pack, there was no statistical difference when comparing the perineal pain among groups in the second, third and fourth evaluations. Most of the postnatal women reported pain relief, with 72.8% reporting a decrease in pain >50%; 21.9% reported a decrease between 3050%. All postnatal women subjected to cryotherapy were favourable to the procedure. Conclusion. There is no difference in pain scores following ice pack application in three different times (10, 15 and 20 minutes) in women who report moderate or intense perineal pain after normal delivery. Relevance for clinical practice. Ice treatment is safe, and application times of 10 or 15 minutes are as beneficial as an application time of 20 minutes to relieve perineal pain.

Optimal Supervisory Control of Hybrid Vehicles

Hybrid vehicles (HV), comprising a conventional ICE-based powertrain and a secondary energy source, to be converted into mechanical power as well, represent a well-established alternative to substantially reduce both fuel consumption and tailpipe emissions of passenger cars. Several HV architectures are either being studied or already available on market, e.g. Mechanical, Electric, Hydraulic and Pneumatic Hybrid Vehicles. Among the others, Electric (HEV) and Mechanical (HSF-HV) parallel Hybrid configurations are examined throughout this Thesis. To fully exploit the HVs potential, an optimal choice of the hybrid components to be installed must be properly designed, while an effective Supervisory Control must be adopted to coordinate the way the different power sources are managed and how they interact. Real-time controllers can be derived starting from the obtained optimal benchmark results. However, the application of these powerful instruments require a simplified and yet reliable and accurate model of the hybrid vehicle system. This can be a complex task, especially when the complexity of the system grows, i.e. a HSF-HV system assessed in this Thesis. The first task of the following dissertation is to establish the optimal modeling approach for an innovative and promising mechanical hybrid vehicle architecture. It will be shown how the chosen modeling paradigm can affect the goodness and the amount of computational effort of the solution, using an optimization technique based on Dynamic Programming. The second goal concerns the control of pollutant emissions in a parallel Diesel-HEV. The emissions level obtained under real world driving conditions is substantially higher than the usual result obtained in a homologation cycle. For this reason, an on-line control strategy capable of guaranteeing the respect of the desired emissions level, while minimizing fuel consumption and avoiding excessive battery depletion is the target of the corresponding section of the Thesis.

West Antarctic Ice Streams

Solar heat is the acknowledged driving force for climatic change. However, ice sheets are also capable of causing climatic change. This property of ice sheets derives from the facts that ice and rock are crystalline whereas the oceans and atmosphere are fluids and that ice sheets are massive enough to depress the earth's crust well below sea level. These features allow time constants for glacial flow and isostatic compensation to be much larger than those for ocean and atmospheric circulation and therefore somewhat independent of the solar variations that control this circulation. This review examines the nature of dynamic processes in ice streams that give ice sheets their degree of independent behavior and emphasizes the consequences of viscoplastic instability inherent in anisotropic polycrystalline solids such as glacial ice. Viscoplastic instability and subglacial topography are responsible for the formation of ice streams near ice sheet margins grounded below sea level. As a result the West Antarctic marine ice sheet is inherently unstable and can be rapidly carved away by calving bays which migrate up surging ice streams. Analyses of tidal flexure along floating ice stream margins, stress and velocity fields in ice streams, and ice stream boundary conditions are presented and used to interpret ERTS 1 photomosaics for West Antarctica in terms of characteristic ice sheet crevasse patterns that can be used to monitor ice stream surges and to study calving bay dynamics.

Ice Dynamics Preceding Catastrophic Disintegration of the Floating Part of Jakobshavn Isbrie, Greenland

The floating terminal of Jakobshavn Isbr ae, the fastest Greenland ice stream, has disintegrated since 2002, resulting in a doubling of ice velocity and rapidly lowering inland ice elevations. Conditions prior to disintegration were modeled using control theory in a plane-stress solution, and the Missoula model of ice-shelf flow. Both approaches pointed to a mechanism that inhibits ice flow and that is not captured by either approach. Jamming of flow, an inherent property of granular materials passing through a constriction (Jakobshavn Isfjord), is postulated as the mechanism. Rapid disintegration of heavily crevassed floating ice accompanies break-up of the ice jam.