Assessing the impacts of climate change on river flows in England using the UKCP09 climate change projections

This paper presents an assessment of the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in representative English catchments, using the UKCP09 climate projections. These comprise a set of 10,000 coherent climate scenarios, used here (i) to evaluate the distribution of potential changes in hydrological behaviour and (ii) to construct relationships between indicators of climate change and hydrological change. The study uses six catchments, and focuses on change in average flow, high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). There is a large range in hydrological change in each catchment between the plausible UKCP09 climate projections, with differences between catchments largely due to differences in catchment geology and baseline water balance. The range in change between the UKCP09 projections is in most catchments smaller than the range between changes with scenarios based on the CMIP3 ensemble of climate models, and earlier UK scenarios produce changes that tend towards the lower (drier) end of the UKCP09 range. The difference between emissions scenarios is small compared to the range across the 10,000 scenarios. Changes in high flows are largely driven by changes in winter precipitation, whilst changes in low flows are determined by changes in summer precipitation and temperature.

Extension And Testing Of A 2D Hydrodynamic Model For Direct Rainfall Runoff Simulation

While the simulation of flood risks originating from the overtopping of river banks is well covered within continuously evaluated programs to improve flood protection measures, flash flooding is not. Flash floods are triggered by short, local thunderstorm cells with high precipitation intensities. Small catchments have short response times and flow paths and convective thunder cells may result in potential flooding of endangered settlements. Assessing local flooding and pathways of flood requires a detailed hydraulic simulation of the surface runoff. Hydrological models usually do not incorporate surface runoff at this detailedness but rather empirical equations are applied for runoff detention. In return 2D hydrodynamic models usually do not allow distributed rainfall as input nor are any types of soil/surface interaction implemented as in hydrological models. Considering several cases of local flash flooding during the last years the issue emerged for practical reasons but as well as research topics to closing the model gap between distributed rainfall and distributed runoff formation. Therefore, a 2D hydrodynamic model, depth-averaged flow equations using the finite volume discretization, was extended to accept direct rainfall enabling to simulate the associated runoff formation. The model itself is used as numerical engine, rainfall is introduced via the modification of waterlevels at fixed time intervals. The paper not only deals with the general application of the software, but intends to test the numerical stability and reliability of simulation results. The performed tests are made using different artificial as well as measured rainfall series as input. Key parameters of the simulation such as losses, roughness or time intervals for water level manipulations are tested regarding their impact on the stability.

Water management and river basins in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Modeling, characterization and microalgal cultivation in an airlift panel photobioreactors.

Microalgae cultures are attracting great attentions in many industrial applications. However, one of the technical challenges is to cut down the capital and operational costs of microalgae production systems, with special difficulty in reactor design and scale-up. The thesis work open with an overview on the microalgae cultures as a possible answer to solve some of the upcoming planet issues and their applications in several fields. After the work offers a general outline on the state of the art of microalgae culture systems, taking a special look to the enclosed photobioreactors (PBRs). The overall objective of this study is to advance the knowledge of PBRs design and lead to innovative large scale processes of microalgae cultivation. An airlift flat panel photobioreactor was designed, modeled and experimentally characterized. The gas holdup, liquid flow velocity and oxygen mass transfer of the reactor were experimentally determined and mathematically modeled, and the performance of the reactor was tested by cultivation of microalgae. The model predicted data correlated well with experimental data, and the high concentration of suspension cell culture could be achieved with controlled conditions. The reactor was inoculated with the algal strain Scenedesmus obliquus sp. first and with Chlorella sp. later and sparged with air. The reactor was operated in batch mode and daily monitored for pH, temperature, and biomass concentration and activity. The productivity of the novel device was determined, suggesting the proposed design can be effectively and economically used in carbon dioxide mitigation technologies and in the production of algal biomass for biofuel and other bioproducts. Those research results favored the possibility of scaling the reactor up into industrial scales based on the models employed, and the potential advantages and disadvantages were discussed for this novel industrial design.

RFID Transponders : Link between information and material flows. How reliable are identification procedures?

Along with the growing complexity of logistic chains the demand for transparency of informations has increased. The use of intelligent RFID-Technology offers the possibility to optimize and control all capacities in use, since it enables the identification and tracking of goods alongside the entire supply chain. Every single product can be located at any given time and a multitude of current and historical data can be transferred. The interaction of the flow of material and the flow of information between the various process steps can be optimized by using RFID-Technology since it guarantees that all required data is available at the right time and at the right place. The local accessibility and convertibility of data allows a flexible, decentralised control of logistic systems. As additional advantages of RFID-Components can be considered that they are individually writable and that their identification can be achieved over considerable distances even if there is no intervisibility between tag and reader. The use of RFID-Transponder opens up new potentials regarding process security, reduction of logistic costs or availability of products. These advantages depend on reliability of the identification processes. The undisputed potentials that are made accessible by the use of RFID-Elements can only be beneficial when the informations that are decentralised and attached to goods and loading equipment can be reliably retrieved at the required points. The communication between tag and reader can be influenced by different materials such as metal, that can disturbed or complicate the radio contact. The communications reliability is subject of various tests and experiments that analyse the effects of different filling materials as well as different alignments of tags on the loading equipment.

The assessment of visual short-term memory in considering the underlying processes and their relation to psychometric intelligence

By means of fixed-links modeling the present study assessed processes involved in visual short-term memory functioning and investigates how these processes are related to intelligence. Using a color change detection task, short-term memory demands increased across three experimental conditions as a function of number of presented stimuli. We measured amount of information retained in visual short-term memory by hit rate as well as speed of visual short-term memory scanning by reaction time. For both measures, fixed-links modeling revealed a constant process reflecting processes irrespective of task manipulation as well as two increasing processes reflecting the increasing short-term memory demands. For visual short-term memory scanning, a negative association between intelligence and the constant process was found but no relationship between intelligence and the increasing processes. Thus, basic processing speed, rather than speed influenced by visual short-term memory demands, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. Intelligence was positively related to the experimental processes of shortterm memory retention but not to the constant process. In sum, significant associations with intelligence were only obtained when the specific processes of short-term memory were decomposed emphasizing the importance of a thorough assessment of cognitive processes when investigating their relation to intelligence.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, processes and elements during experiments with planktonic foraminifera Orbulina universa, 2004

We investigate the sensitivity of U/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca to changes in seawater [CO3[2-]] and temperature in calcite produced by the two planktonic foraminifera species, Orbulina universa and Globigerina bulloides, in laboratory culture experiments. Our results demonstrate that at constant temperature, U/Ca in O. universa decreases by 25 +/- 7% per 100 µmol [CO3[2-]] kg**-1, as seawater [CO3[2-]] increases from 110 to 470 µmol kg**-1. Results from G. bulloides suggest a similar relationship, but U/Ca is consistently offset by ~+40% at the same environmental [CO3[2-]]. In O. universa, U/Ca is insensitive to temperature between 15°C and 25°C. Applying the O. universa relationship to three U/Ca records from a related species, Globigerinoides sacculifer, we estimate that Caribbean and tropical Atlantic [CO3[2-]] was 110 +/- 70 µmol kg**-1 and 80 +/- 40 µmol kg**-1 higher, respectively, during the last glacial period relative to the Holocene. This result is consistent with estimates of the glacial-interglacial change in surface water [CO3[2-]] based on both modeling and on boron isotope pH estimates. In settings where the addition of U by diagenetic processes is not a factor, down-core records of foraminiferal U/Ca have potential to provide information about changes in the ocean's carbonate concentration.

WCSPH viscosity diffusion processes in vortex flows

The aim of this paper is to clarify the role played by the most commonly used viscous terms in simulating viscous laminar flows using the weakly compressible approach in the context of smooth particle hydrodynamics (WCSPH). To achieve this, Takeda et al. (Prog. Theor. Phys. 1994; 92(5):939–960), Morris et al. (J. Comput. Phys. 1997; 136:214–226) and Monaghan–Cleary–Gingold's (Appl. Math. Model. 1998; 22(12):981–993; Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 2005; 365:199–213) viscous terms will be analysed, discussing their origins, structures and conservation properties. Their performance will be monitored with canonical flows of which related viscosity phenomena are well understood, and in which boundary effects are not relevant. Following the validation process of three previously published examples, two vortex flows of engineering importance have been studied. First, an isolated Lamb–Oseen vortex evolution where viscous effects are dominant and second, a pair of co-rotating vortices in which viscous effects are combined with transport phenomena. The corresponding SPH solutions have been compared to finite-element numerical solutions. The SPH viscosity model's behaviour in modelling the viscosity related effects for these canonical flows is adequate

Reduced order modeling of some fluid flows of industrial interest

Some basic ideas are presented for the construction of robust, computationally efficient reduced order models amenable to be used in industrial environments, combined with somewhat rough computational fluid dynamics solvers. These ideas result from a critical review of the basic principles of proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order modeling of both steady and unsteady fluid flows. In particular, the extent to which some artifacts of the computational fluid dynamics solvers can be ignored is addressed, which opens up the possibility of obtaining quite flexible reduced order models. The methods are illustrated with the steady aerodynamic flow around a horizontal tail plane of a commercial aircraft in transonic conditions, and the unsteady lid-driven cavity problem. In both cases, the approximations are fairly good, thus reducing the computational cost by a significant factor.

HYMO : problem-oriented computer language for hydrologic modeling : users manual /

Bibliography: p. 53.

Hydrologic modeling of the Court Creek Watershed /

"IDNR Contract number G99C0230."

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Time to Extinction in Branching Processes and its Application in Epidemiology

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60J80; Secondary 92D30.

The impact of cross -training on team processes and performance

Recently, researchers have begun to investigate the benefits of cross-training teams. It has been hypothesized that cross-training should help improve team processes and team performance (Cannon-Bowers, Salas, Blickensderfer, & Bowers, 1998; Travillian, Volpe, Cannon-Bowers, & Salas, 1993). The current study extends previous research by examining different methods of cross-training (positional clarification and positional modeling) and the impact they have on team process and performance in both more complex and less complex environments. One hundred and thirty-five psychology undergraduates were placed in 45 three-person teams. Participants were randomly assigned to roles within teams. Teams were asked to “fly” a series of missions on a PC-based helicopter flight simulation. ^ Results suggest that cross-training improves team mental model accuracy and similarity. Accuracy of team mental models was found to be a predictor of coordination quality, but similarity of team mental models was not. Neither similarity nor accuracy of team mental models was found to be a predictor of backup behavior (quality and quantity). As expected, both team coordination (quality) and backup behaviors (quantity and quality) were significant predictors of overall team performance. Contrary to expectations, there was no interaction between cross-training and environmental complexity. Results from this study further cross-training research by establishing positional clarification and positional modeling as training strategies for improving team performance. ^