Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Redescription of Prosthenhystera obesa (Diesing, 1850) (Callodistomidae, Digenea) with New Host Records and Data on Morphological Variability

Prosthenhystera obesa (Diesing,1850) Travassos, 1922 from the gall bladder of Astyanax bimaculatus, Caranx gibbosus, Galeocharax humeralis, Leporinus copelandii, Pimelodus fur, Pseudopimelodus roosevelti, Salminus brevidens, Salminus maxillosus and from the new hosts, Cynopotamus amazonum and Triurobrycon lundii is redescribed, demonstrating a large morphological variation, mainly in body and testes size and shape. New hosts harbouring immature specimens of P. obesa are presented: Brycon sp., Leporellus vittatus, Pachyurus squamipinnis, Pimelodus clarias, Pseudoplatystoma corruscans and Salminus hilarii. Scanning electron microscopy micrographies, original figures and measurements of adult and immature specimens from different Brazilian hosts and localities are presented

2006 National report (2005 data) to the EMCDDA by the Reitox National Focal Point: Norway: New developments, trends and in-depth information on selected issues.

This is a 2006 national report to the EMCDDA, using 2005 data. It is compiled by the Reitox national focal point and covers epidemiology, policing, strategy, drugs markets, drug-related infectious diseases, drug-related death and problem drug use in Norway.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

The Marmot Review: Updated data and information 2 years on

To mark the two year anniversary since The Marmot Review ('Fair Society, Healthy Lives') was published, on the 15th of February the UCL Institute of Health Equity published new data on key health inequalities indicators at local authority level in England.Main Findings:Life Expectancy – this has historically been one of the main indicators of health inequalities.The Marmot Indicators from this year’s charts show the average life expectancy for eachlocal authority and the level of inequality within each authority area (7):-While overall life expectancy at birth in England increased by 0.3 years for both menand women between 2007-9 and 2008-10, inequalities in life expectancy betweenneighbourhoods increased by 0.1 years for men and showed no change for women-Among the 150 upper tier local authorities in England, life expectancy improved inthe majority of cases (133 areas saw improvements for men and 125 sawimprovements for women). However inequalities also increased in the majority ofareas (104 for men and 92 for women).-The largest increase in inequality in life expectancy was in West Berkshire for men(2.0 years) and inMiddlesbrough for women (2 years). The largest decreases ininequality were in Kensington and Chelsea for both men and women (1.9 and 1.1years respectively. To find out more, please read: - The press release, including key figures and main findings. - A blog by Michael Marmot about the data and it's implications. - Press coverage of the data in national and local newspapers and websites. - A powerpoint presentation on the key findings.

The State Data Center of Iowa and the Iowa Commission on the Status of African-Americans in Iowa: 2008

To recall and celebrate the positive contributions to our nation made by people of African descent, American historian Carter G. Woodson established Black History Week beginning on Feb. 12, 1926. In 1976, as part of the nation’s bicentennial, the week was expanded into Black History Month. This report gives data information about African-Americans in Iowa.

Concentrate feeding and milk yield based on field data of milk recorded herds

Selostus: Väkirehuruokinnan vaikutus maidontuotantoon karjantarkkailutiloilta kerätyssä kenttäaineistossa

Three-dimensional aspects of fluid flows in channels. II. Effects of meniscus and thin film regimes on viscous fingers

We perform a three-dimensional study of steady state viscous fingers that develop in linear channels. By means of a three-dimensional lattice-Boltzmann scheme that mimics the full macroscopic equations of motion of the fluid momentum and order parameter, we study the effect of the thickness of the channel in two cases. First, for total displacement of the fluids in the channel thickness direction, we find that the steady state finger is effectively two-dimensional and that previous two-dimensional results can be recovered by taking into account the effect of a curved meniscus across the channel thickness as a contribution to surface stresses. Second, when a thin film develops in the channel thickness direction, the finger narrows with increasing channel aspect ratio in agreement with experimental results. The effect of the thin film renders the problem three-dimensional and results deviate from the two-dimensional prediction.

Three-dimensional aspects of fluid flows in channels. II. Effects of meniscus and thin film regimes on viscous fingers

We perform a three-dimensional study of steady state viscous fingers that develop in linear channels. By means of a three-dimensional lattice-Boltzmann scheme that mimics the full macroscopic equations of motion of the fluid momentum and order parameter, we study the effect of the thickness of the channel in two cases. First, for total displacement of the fluids in the channel thickness direction, we find that the steady state finger is effectively two-dimensional and that previous two-dimensional results can be recovered by taking into account the effect of a curved meniscus across the channel thickness as a contribution to surface stresses. Second, when a thin film develops in the channel thickness direction, the finger narrows with increasing channel aspect ratio in agreement with experimental results. The effect of the thin film renders the problem three-dimensional and results deviate from the two-dimensional prediction.

Effect of data acquisition accuracy on timing of stand harvests and expected net present value

Abstract

Aspects on Process Engineering in the Finnish Pulp and Paper Industry : Thesis for the Degree of Licentiate in Science of Technology

Process development will be largely driven by the main equipment suppliers. The reason for this development is their ambition to supply complete plants or process systems instead of single pieces of equipment. The pulp and paper companies' interest lies in product development, as their main goal is to create winning brands and effective brand management. Design engineering companies will find their niche in detail engineering based on approved process solutions. Their development work will focus on increasing the efficiency of engineering work. Process design is a content-producing profession, which requires certain special characteristics: creativity, carefulness, the ability to work as a member of a design team according to time schedules and fluency in oral as well as written presentation. In the future, process engineers will increasingly need knowledge of chemistry as well as information and automation technology. Process engineering tools are developing rapidly. At the moment, these tools are good enough for static sizing and balancing, but dynamic simulation tools are not yet good enough for the complicated chemical reactions of pulp and paper chemistry. Dynamic simulation and virtual mill models are used as tools for training the operators. Computational fluid dynamics will certainlygain ground in process design.

Trigger and data link system for CMS Resistive Plate Chambers at the LHC accelerator

The purpose of the work was to realize a high-speed digital data transfer system for RPC muon chambers in the CMS experiment on CERN’s new LHC accelerator. This large scale system took many years and many stages of prototyping to develop, and required the participation of tens of people. The system interfaces to Frontend Boards (FEB) at the 200,000-channel detector and to the trigger and readout electronics in the control room of the experiment. The distance between these two is about 80 metres and the speed required for the optic links was pushing the limits of available technology when the project was started. Here, as in many other aspects of the design, it was assumed that the features of readily available commercial components would develop in the course of the design work, just as they did. By choosing a high speed it was possible to multiplex the data from some the chambers into the same fibres to reduce the number of links needed. Further reduction was achieved by employing zero suppression and data compression, and a total of only 660 optical links were needed. Another requirement, which conflicted somewhat with choosing the components a late as possible was that the design needed to be radiation tolerant to an ionizing dose of 100 Gy and to a have a moderate tolerance to Single Event Effects (SEEs). This required some radiation test campaigns, and eventually led to ASICs being chosen for some of the critical parts. The system was made to be as reconfigurable as possible. The reconfiguration needs to be done from a distance as the electronics is not accessible except for some short and rare service breaks once the accelerator starts running. Therefore reconfigurable logic is extensively used, and the firmware development for the FPGAs constituted a sizable part of the work. Some special techniques needed to be used there too, to achieve the required radiation tolerance. The system has been demonstrated to work in several laboratory and beam tests, and now we are waiting to see it in action when the LHC will start running in the autumn 2008.

Estimation of lung cancer diagnosis and treatment costs based on a patient-level analysis in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Assessing of the costs of treating disease is necessary to demonstrate cost-effectiveness and to estimate the budget impact of new interventions and therapeutic innovations. However, there are few comprehensive studies on resource use and costs associated with lung cancer patients in clinical practice in Spain or internationally. The aim of this paper was to assess the hospital cost associated with lung cancer diagnosis and treatment by histology, type of cost and stage at diagnosis in the Spanish National Health Service. Methods: A retrospective, descriptive analysis on resource use and a direct medical cost analysis were performed. Resource utilisation data were collected by means of patient files from nine teaching hospitals. From a hospital budget impact perspective, the aggregate and mean costs per patient were calculated over the first three years following diagnosis or up to death. Both aggregate and mean costs per patient were analysed by histology, stage at diagnosis and cost type. Results: A total of 232 cases of lung cancer were analysed, of which 74.1% corresponded to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and 11.2% to small cell lung cancer (SCLC); 14.7% had no cytohistologic confirmation. The mean cost per patient in NSCLC ranged from 13,218 Euros in Stage III to 16,120 Euros in Stage II. The main cost components were chemotherapy (29.5%) and surgery (22.8%). Advanced disease stages were associated with a decrease in the relative weight of surgical and inpatient care costs but an increase in chemotherapy costs. In SCLC patients, the mean cost per patient was 15,418 Euros for limited disease and 12,482 Euros for extensive disease. The main cost components were chemotherapy (36.1%) and other inpatient costs (28.7%). In both groups, the Kruskall-Wallis test did not show statistically significant differences in mean cost per patient between stages. Conclusions: This study provides the costs of lung cancer treatment based on patient file reviews, with chemotherapy and surgery accounting for the major components of costs. This cost analysis is a baseline study that will provide a useful source of information for future studies on cost-effectiveness and on the budget impact of different therapeutic innovations in Spain.

Combinatorics on Words. New Aspects on Avoidability, Defect Effect, Equations and Palindromes

In this thesis we examine four well-known and traditional concepts of combinatorics on words. However the contexts in which these topics are treated are not the traditional ones. More precisely, the question of avoidability is asked, for example, in terms of k-abelian squares. Two words are said to be k-abelian equivalent if they have the same number of occurrences of each factor up to length k. Consequently, k-abelian equivalence can be seen as a sharpening of abelian equivalence. This fairly new concept is discussed broader than the other topics of this thesis. The second main subject concerns the defect property. The defect theorem is a well-known result for words. We will analyze the property, for example, among the sets of 2-dimensional words, i.e., polyominoes composed of labelled unit squares. From the defect effect we move to equations. We will use a special way to define a product operation for words and then solve a few basic equations over constructed partial semigroup. We will also consider the satisfiability question and the compactness property with respect to this kind of equations. The final topic of the thesis deals with palindromes. Some finite words, including all binary words, are uniquely determined up to word isomorphism by the position and length of some of its palindromic factors. The famous Thue-Morse word has the property that for each positive integer n, there exists a factor which cannot be generated by fewer than n palindromes. We prove that in general, every non ultimately periodic word contains a factor which cannot be generated by fewer than 3 palindromes, and we obtain a classification of those binary words each of whose factors are generated by at most 3 palindromes. Surprisingly these words are related to another much studied set of words, Sturmian words.

Teachers' perceptions of effects of terminal examinations on teaching and learning at the secondary school level in Zimbabwe

This study was particularly aimed at the examinations and the effect they have on schooling at the secondary school level in Zimbabwe. The views and opinions of teachers on the use of terminal examinations for certification and the influence they are seen to have on teachers' approach to the curriculum were examined. The literature has shown that there is widespread criticism of the justice and effects of terminal examinations. It is argued that they lead to an over-emphasis of that which is measured, knowledge and intellectual ability, at the expense of that kind of education progress which is almost impossible to measure in an end-of-the-course assessment. Three hundred and six secondary school teachers responded to a survey which asked for teachers' perceptions of examinations and the curriculum. The findings of this study indicated that teaching is structured towards examinations. Although teachers are trying to teach and develop reasoning skills and other activities, the pressure of examinations and the importance of doing well in them force teachers to restrict themselves to examination requirements.