Autonomes Performance-Management in dienstorientierten Architekturen

Die Bedeutung des Dienstgüte-Managements (SLM) im Bereich von Unternehmensanwendungen steigt mit der zunehmenden Kritikalität von IT-gestützten Prozessen für den Erfolg einzelner Unternehmen. Traditionell werden zur Implementierung eines wirksamen SLMs Monitoringprozesse in hierarchischen Managementumgebungen etabliert, die einen Administrator bei der notwendigen Rekonfiguration von Systemen unterstützen. Auf aktuelle, hochdynamische Softwarearchitekturen sind diese hierarchischen Ansätze jedoch nur sehr eingeschränkt anwendbar. Ein Beispiel dafür sind dienstorientierte Architekturen (SOA), bei denen die Geschäftsfunktionalität durch das Zusammenspiel einzelner, voneinander unabhängiger Dienste auf Basis deskriptiver Workflow-Beschreibungen modelliert wird. Dadurch ergibt sich eine hohe Laufzeitdynamik der gesamten Architektur. Für das SLM ist insbesondere die dezentrale Struktur einer SOA mit unterschiedlichen administrativen Zuständigkeiten für einzelne Teilsysteme problematisch, da regelnde Eingriffe zum einen durch die Kapselung der Implementierung einzelner Dienste und zum anderen durch das Fehlen einer zentralen Kontrollinstanz nur sehr eingeschränkt möglich sind. Die vorliegende Arbeit definiert die Architektur eines SLM-Systems für SOA-Umgebungen, in dem autonome Management-Komponenten kooperieren, um übergeordnete Dienstgüteziele zu erfüllen: Mithilfe von Selbst-Management-Technologien wird zunächst eine Automatisierung des Dienstgüte-Managements auf Ebene einzelner Dienste erreicht. Die autonomen Management-Komponenten dieser Dienste können dann mithilfe von Selbstorganisationsmechanismen übergreifende Ziele zur Optimierung von Dienstgüteverhalten und Ressourcennutzung verfolgen. Für das SLM auf Ebene von SOA Workflows müssen temporär dienstübergreifende Kooperationen zur Erfüllung von Dienstgüteanforderungen etabliert werden, die sich damit auch über mehrere administrative Domänen erstrecken können. Eine solche zeitlich begrenzte Kooperation autonomer Teilsysteme kann sinnvoll nur dezentral erfolgen, da die jeweiligen Kooperationspartner im Vorfeld nicht bekannt sind und – je nach Lebensdauer einzelner Workflows – zur Laufzeit beteiligte Komponenten ausgetauscht werden können. In der Arbeit wird ein Verfahren zur Koordination autonomer Management-Komponenten mit dem Ziel der Optimierung von Antwortzeiten auf Workflow-Ebene entwickelt: Management-Komponenten können durch Übertragung von Antwortzeitanteilen untereinander ihre individuellen Ziele straffen oder lockern, ohne dass das Gesamtantwortzeitziel dadurch verändert wird. Die Übertragung von Antwortzeitanteilen wird mithilfe eines Auktionsverfahrens realisiert. Technische Grundlage der Kooperation bildet ein Gruppenkommunikationsmechanismus. Weiterhin werden in Bezug auf die Nutzung geteilter, virtualisierter Ressourcen konkurrierende Dienste entsprechend geschäftlicher Ziele priorisiert. Im Rahmen der praktischen Umsetzung wird die Realisierung zentraler Architekturelemente und der entwickelten Verfahren zur Selbstorganisation beispielhaft für das SLM konkreter Komponenten vorgestellt. Zur Untersuchung der Management-Kooperation in größeren Szenarien wird ein hybrider Simulationsansatz verwendet. Im Rahmen der Evaluation werden Untersuchungen zur Skalierbarkeit des Ansatzes durchgeführt. Schwerpunkt ist hierbei die Betrachtung eines Systems aus kooperierenden Management-Komponenten, insbesondere im Hinblick auf den Kommunikationsaufwand. Die Evaluation zeigt, dass ein dienstübergreifendes, autonomes Performance-Management in SOA-Umgebungen möglich ist. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass der entwickelte Ansatz auch in großen Umgebungen erfolgreich angewendet werden kann.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Planejamento e controle da produção de cilindros para laminação: um estudo de caso quantitativo

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo de otimização-simulação aplicado em um estudo de caso real no setor de cilindros para laminação de uma siderúrgica, buscando melhorar o gerenciamento da área/equipamento gargalo da linha de produção. A simulação atuou em conjunto com um modelo de otimização da programação linear inteira (PLI) para melhorar o atendimento de prazo junto aos clientes em uma produção não seriada. Como resultado deste procedimento combinado da PLI e simulação, o processo produtivo foi otimizado e as filas de espera e o lead-time foram reduzidos, melhorando o atendimento aos clientes.

Modeling thermal conductivity, specific heat, and density of milk: A neural network approach

The accurate determination of thermophysical properties of milk is very important for design, simulation, optimization, and control of food processing such as evaporation, heat exchanging, spray drying, and so forth. Generally, polynomial methods are used for prediction of these properties based on empirical correlation to experimental data. Artificial neural networks are better Suited for processing noisy and extensive knowledge indexing. This article proposed the application of neural networks for prediction of specific heat, thermal conductivity, and density of milk with temperature ranged from 2.0 to 71.0degreesC, 72.0 to 92.0% of water content (w/w), and 1.350 to 7.822% of fat content (w/w). Artificial neural networks presented a better prediction capability of specific heat, thermal conductivity, and density of milk than polynomial modeling. It showed a reasonable alternative to empirical modeling for thermophysical properties of foods.

AcMus: an Open, Integrated Platform for Room Acoustics Research

This article describes the design, implementation, and experiences with AcMus, an open and integrated software platform for room acoustics research, which comprises tools for measurement, analysis, and simulation of rooms for music listening and production. Through use of affordable hardware, such as laptops, consumer audio interfaces and microphones, the software allows evaluation of relevant acoustical parameters with stable and consistent results, thus providing valuable information in the diagnosis of acoustical problems, as well as the possibility of simulating modifications in the room through analytical models. The system is open-source and based on a flexible and extensible Java plug-in framework, allowing for cross-platform portability, accessibility and experimentation, thus fostering collaboration of users, developers and researchers in the field of room acoustics.

Modeling the cosmological co-evolution of supermassive black holes and galaxies

In this Thesis, we investigate the cosmological co-evolution of supermassive black holes (BHs), Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and their hosting dark matter (DM) halos and galaxies, within the standard CDM scenario. We analyze both analytic, semi-analytic and hybrid techniques and use the most recent observational data available to constrain the assumptions underlying our models. First, we focus on very simple analytic models where the assembly of BHs is directly related to the merger history of DM haloes. For this purpose, we implement the two original analytic models of Wyithe & Loeb 2002 and Wyithe & Loeb 2003, compare their predictions to the AGN luminosity function and clustering data, and discuss possible modifications to the models that improve the match to the observation. Then we study more sophisticated semi-analytic models in which however the baryonic physics is neglected as well. Finally we improve the hybrid simulation of De Lucia & Blaizot 2007, adding new semi-analytical prescriptions to describe the BH mass accretion rate during each merger event and its conversion into radiation, and compare the derived BH scaling relations, fundamental plane and mass function, and the AGN luminosity function with observations. All our results support the following scenario: • The cosmological co-evolution of BHs, AGN and galaxies can be well described within the CDM model. • At redshifts z & 1, the evolution history of DM halo fully determines the overall properties of the BH and AGN populations. The AGN emission is triggered mainly by DM halo major mergers and, on average, AGN shine at their Eddington luminosity. • At redshifts z . 1, BH growth decouples from halo growth. Galaxy major mergers cannot constitute the only trigger to accretion episodes in this phase. • When a static hot halo has formed around a galaxy, a fraction of the hot gas continuously accretes onto the central BH, causing a low-energy “radio” activity at the galactic centre, which prevents significant gas cooling and thus limiting the mass of the central galaxies and quenching the star formation at late time. • The cold gas fraction accreted by BHs at high redshifts seems to be larger than at low redshifts.

Operational research applied to regional healthcare system

In this thesis we focus on optimization and simulation techniques applied to solve strategic, tactical and operational problems rising in the healthcare sector. At first we present three applications to Emilia-Romagna Public Health System (SSR) developed in collaboration with Agenzia Sanitaria e Sociale dell'Emilia-Romagna (ASSR), a regional center for innovation and improvement in health. Agenzia launched a strategic campaign aimed at introducing Operations Research techniques as decision making tools to support technological and organizational innovations. The three applications focus on forecast and fund allocation of medical specialty positions, breast screening program extension and operating theater planning. The case studies exploit the potential of combinatorial optimization, discrete event simulation and system dynamics techniques to solve resource constrained problem arising within Emilia-Romagna territory. We then present an application in collaboration with Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del Lazio that focuses on population demand of service allocation to regional emergency departments. Finally, a simulation-optimization approach, developed in collaboration with INESC TECH center of Porto, to evaluate matching policies for the kidney exchange problem is discussed.

On vertical electric fields at lunar magnetic anomalies

We study the interaction between a magnetic dipole mimicking the Gerasimovich magnetic anomaly on the lunar surface and the solar wind in a self-consistent 3-D quasi-neutral hybrid simulation where ions are modeled as particles and electrons as a charge-neutralizing fluid. Especially, we consider the origin of the recently observed electric potentials at lunar magnetic anomalies. An antimoonward Hall electric field forms in our simulation resulting in a potential difference of <300V on the lunar surface, in which the value is similar to observations. Since the hybrid model assumes charge neutrality, our results suggest that the electric potentials at lunar magnetic anomalies can be formed by decoupling of ion and electron motion even without charge separation.

Unidad didáctica sobre el uso del programa Virtual.Lab para simulaciones acústicas. Parte I

El presente Proyecto de Fin de Carrera supone el propósito conjunto de los alumnos Álvaro Morillas y Fernando Sáez, y del profesor Vladimir Ulin, de desarrollar una unidad didáctica sobre el programa de simulación para ingeniería Virtual.Lab. La versión sobre la que se ha trabajado para realizar este texto es la 11, publicada en agosto de 2012. Virtual.Lab, del fabricante belga LMS International, es una plataforma software de ingeniería asistida por ordenador, que agrupa en una misma aplicación varias herramientas complementarias en el diseño de un producto, desde su definición geométrica a los análisis de durabilidad, ruido u optimización. No obstante, de entre todas las posibles simulaciones que nos permite el programa, en este proyecto sólo se tratan las que están relacionadas con la acústica. Cabe resaltar que gran parte de los conceptos manejados en Virtual.Lab son compatibles con el programa CATIA V5, ya que ambos programas vienen instalados y funcionan conjuntamente. Por eso, el lector de este proyecto podrá transportar sus conocimientos al que es uno de los programas estándar en las industrias aeronáutica, naval y automovilística, entre otras. Antes de este proyecto, otros alumnos de la escuela también realizaron proyectos de fin de carrera en el campo de la simulación computarizada en acústica. Una característica común a estos trabajos es que era necesario hacer uso de distintos programas para cada una de las etapas de simulación (como por ejemplo, ANSYS para el modelado y estudio de la vibración y SYSNOISE para las simulaciones acústicas, además de otros programas auxiliares para las traducciones de formato). Con Virtual.Lab desaparece esta necesidad y el tiempo empleado se reduce. Debido a que las soluciones por ordenador están ganando cada vez más importancia en la industria actual, los responsables de este proyecto consideran la necesidad de formación de profesionales en esta rama. Para responder a la demanda empresarial de trabajadores cualificados, se espera que en los próximos años los planes de estudio contengan más cursos en esta materia. Por tanto la intención de los autores es que este material sea de utilidad para el aprendizaje y docencia de estas asignaturas en cursos sucesivos. Por todo esto, se justifica la relevancia de este PFC como manual para introducir a los alumnos interesados en iniciarse en un sistema actual, de uso extendido en otras universidades tecnológicas europeas, y con buenas perspectivas de futuro. En este proyecto se incluyen varios ejemplos ejecutables desde el programa, así como vídeos explicativos que ayudan a mostrar gráficamente los procesos de simulación. Estos archivos se pueden encontrar en el CD adjunto. Abstract This final thesis is a joint project made by the students Álvaro Morillas and Fernando Sáez, and the professor Vladimir Ulin. The nature of the joint regards the writing of a didactic unit on Virtual.Lab, the simulation software. The software version used in this text is the number 11, released in August 2012. Virtual.Lab, from the Belgian developer LMS International, is a computer-aided engineering software which is used for several related tasks in this field: product design, durability simulation, optimization, etc. However, this project is focused on the acoustical capabilities. It is worthy to highlight that most procedures explained in this text can be used in the software CATIA V5 as well. Both tools come installed together and may be used at the same time. Therefore, the reader of this project will be able to use the acquired knowledge in one of the most relevant softwares for the aerospace, marine and automotive engineering. Previously to the development of this project, this School has conducted projects on this field. These projects regarded the use of ANSYS for modeling and meshing stages as well as the use of SYSNOISE for the final acoustic analysis. Since both systems use different file formats, a third-party translation software was required. This thesis fulfill this pending necessity with Virtual.Lab; the translation software procedure is not necessary anymore and simulations can be done in a more flexible, fast way. Since companies have an increasing usage of numerical methods in the development of their products and services, the authors think that it is important to develop the appropriate method to instruct new professionals in the field. Thus, the aim of this project is to help teachers and students in their process of learning the use of this leading software in acoustical simulations. For all the reasons mentioned above, we consider that this project is relevant for the School and the educational community. Aiming to achieve this objective the author offers example files and video demonstrations with guidance in the CD that accompanies this material. This facilitates the comprehension of the practical tasks and guides the prospect users of the software.

Some examples of modeling in chemical engineering: thermal treatment of polymers, phase equilibrium calculations and process design

Presentation submitted to PSE Seminar, Chemical Engineering Department, Center for Advanced Process Design-making (CAPD), Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh (USA), October 2012.

Rigorous design of distillation columns using surrogate models based on Kriging interpolation

The economic design of a distillation column or distillation sequences is a challenging problem that has been addressed by superstructure approaches. However, these methods have not been widely used because they lead to mixed-integer nonlinear programs that are hard to solve, and require complex initialization procedures. In this article, we propose to address this challenging problem by substituting the distillation columns by Kriging-based surrogate models generated via state of the art distillation models. We study different columns with increasing difficulty, and show that it is possible to get accurate Kriging-based surrogate models. The optimization strategy ensures that convergence to a local optimum is guaranteed for numerical noise-free models. For distillation columns (slightly noisy systems), Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions cannot be tested directly on the actual model, but still we can guarantee a local minimum in a trust region of the surrogate model that contains the actual local minimum.

Cyber Threats Identification in the Evolving Digital Reality

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2016

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Spectroscopic properties from hybrid QM, MM molecular dynamics simulation

The central aim of this thesis work is the application and further development of a hybrid quantum mechanical/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) based approach to compute spectroscopic properties of molecules in complex chemical environments from electronic structure theory. In the framework of this thesis, an existing density functional theory implementation of the QM/MM approach is first used to calculate the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) solvent shifts of an adenine molecule in aqueous solution. The findings show that the aqueous solvation with its strongly fluctuating hydrogen bond network leads to specific changes in the NMR resonance lines. Besides the absolute values, also the ordering of the NMR lines changes under the influence of the solvating water molecules. Without the QM/MM scheme, a quantum chemical calculation could have led to an incorrect assignment of these lines. The second part of this thesis describes a methodological improvement of the QM/MM method that is designed for cases in which a covalent chemical bond crosses the QM/MM boundary. The development consists in an automatized protocol to optimize a so-called capping potential that saturates the electronic subsystem in the QM region. The optimization scheme is capable of tuning the parameters in such a way that the deviations of the electronic orbitals between the regular and the truncated (and "capped") molecule are minimized. This in turn results in a considerable improvement of the structural and spectroscopic parameters when computed with the new optimized capping potential within the QM/MM technique. This optimization scheme is applied and benchmarked on the example of truncated carbon-carbon bonds in a set of small test molecules. It turns out that the optimized capping potentials yield an excellent agreement of NMR chemical shifts and protonation energies with respect to the corresponding full molecules. These results are very promising, so that the application to larger biological complexes will significantly improve the reliability of the prediction of the related spectroscopic properties.