Consumer behavior towards fuel efficient vehicles. Volume III: forecasts of the composition of household motor vehicle holdings. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Technology Assessment Division, Washington, D.C.

Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Workplace crime and the informal economy in Ukraine: Employee and employer perspectives

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the criminal workplace activities of both employers and employees in Ukrainian enterprises. It challenges traditional definitions of corruption and suggests that the practices that can be observed fit into the category of organised crime because of the country's economic framework. The paper also explores how the practices are partially a legacy of Soviet economic processes. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 700 household surveys were completed in three cities, Kyiv (where 450 surveys were completed), Uzhgorod (150) and Kharkiv (100). To complement these, approximately 25 in-depth interviews were undertaken with workers in each region. Furthermore, ethnographic observations and “kitchen table” interviews also played an important role in the research. Although the research was oriented towards those working in informal economies, business owners (both formal and informal) were also interviewed. Findings – As well as revealing the endemic nature of corruption in Ukrainian workplaces and the high levels of informal activity undertaken by workers, the research found that many people wish for their workplace to become more regulated. Research limitations/implications – Further interviews could have been carried out with state officials and in more locations. The implications are multiple but mainly they demonstrate the difficulty that those charged with economic reform in Ukraine must face. Originality/value – It is one of the first studies to explore these issues in Ukraine using a variety of research methods.

Beyond the formal/informal economy binary hierarchy

Purpose – This paper aims to evaluate critically the conventional binary hierarchical representation of the formal/informal economy dualism which reads informal employment as a residual and marginal sphere that has largely negative consequences for economic development and needs to be deterred. Design/methodology/approach – To contest this depiction, the results of 600 household interviews conducted in Ukraine during 2005/2006 on the extent and nature of their informal employment are reported. Findings – Informal employment is revealed to be an extensively used form of work and, through a richer and more textured understanding of the multiple roles that different forms of informal employment play, a form of work that positively contributes to economic and social development, acting both as an important seedbed for enterprise creation and development and as a primary vehicle through which community self-help is delivered in contemporary Ukraine. Research limitations/implications – This survey reveals that depicting informal employment as a hindrance to development and deterring engagement in this sphere results in state authorities destroying the entrepreneurial endeavour and active citizenship that other public policies are seeking to nurture. The paper concludes by addressing how this public policy paradox might start to be resolved. Originality/value – This paper is one of the first to document the role of informal employment in nurturing enterprise creation and development as well as community exchange.

Female employment from the household. Towards a comprehensive analysis of work-life articulation

Research on women’s employment has proliferated over recent decades, often under a perspective that conceptualizes female labour market activity as independent of male presences and absences in the productive and reproductive spheres. In the face of these approaches, the article argues the need to focus on the couple as the unit of analysis of work-life articulation. After referring to the main theoretical arguments that, from a gender perspective within labour studies, have pointed out the relevance of placing the household as the central space for the analysis of the sexual division of labour, the article reviews different empirical contributions that have incorporated such perspective in the international literature. Next, the state of the art in the Spanish literature is presented, before arguing the desirability of applying such framework of analysis to the study of employment and care work in Spanish households, which are at present undergoing major transformations.

ESSAYS ON THE WTO ACCESSION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

In the course of integrating into the global market, especially since China’s WTO accession, China has achieved remarkable GDP growth and has become the second largest economy in the world. These economic achievements have substantially increased Chinese incomes and have generated more government revenue for social progress. However, China’s economic progress, in itself, is neither sufficient for achieving desirable development outcomes nor a guarantee for expanding peoples’ capabilities. In fact, a narrow emphasis on GDP growth proves to be unsustainable, and may eventually harm the life quality of Chinese citizens. Without the right set of policies, a deepening trade-openness policy in China may enlarge social disparities and some people may further be deprived of basic public services and opportunities. To address these concerns, this dissertation, a set of three essays in Chapters 2-4, examines the impact of China's WTO accession on income distribution, compares China’s income and multidimensional poverty reduction and investigates the factors, including the WTO accession, that predict multidimensional poverty. By exploiting the exogenous variation in exposure to tariff changes across provinces and over time, Chapter 2 (Essay 1) estimates the causal effects of trade shocks and finds that China’s WTO accession has led to an increase in average household income, but its impacts are not evenly distributed. Households in urban areas have benefited more significantly than those in rural areas. Households with members working in the private sector have benefited more significantly than those in the public sector. However, the WTO accession has contributed to reducing income inequality between higher and lower income groups. Chapter 3 (Essay 2) explains and applies the Alkire and Foster Method (AF Method), examines multidimensional poverty in China and compares it with income poverty. It finds that China’s multidimensional poverty has declined dramatically during the period from 1989-2011. Reduction rates and patterns, however, vary by dimensions: multidimensional poverty reduction exhibits unbalanced regional progress as well as varies by province and between rural and urban areas. In comparison with income poverty, multidimensional poverty reduction does not always coincide with economic growth. Moreover, if one applies a single measure ─ either that of income or multidimensional poverty ─ a certain proportion of those who are poor remain unrecognized. By applying a logistic regression model, Chapter 4 (Essay 3) examines factors that predict multidimensional poverty and finds that the major factors predicting multidimensional poverty in China include household size, education level of the household head, health insurance coverage, geographic location, and the openness of the local economy. In order to alleviate multidimensional poverty, efforts should be targeted to (i) expand education opportunities for the household heads with low levels of education, (ii) develop appropriate geographic policies to narrow regional gaps and (iii) make macroeconomic policies work for the poor.

Development Begins at Home: Women and the Domestic Economy in Brazil, 1945-1975

A number of historians of twentieth-century Latin America have identified ways that national labor laws, civil codes, social welfare programs, and business practices contributed to a gendered division of society that subordinated women to men in national economic development, household management, and familial relations. Few scholars, however, have critically explored women's roles as consumers and housewives in these intertwined realms. This work examines the Brazilian case after the Second World War, arguing that economic policies and business practices associated with “developmentalism” [Portuguese: desenvolvimentismo] created openings for women to engage in debates about national progress and transnational standards of modernity. While acknowledging that an asymmetry of gender relations persisted, the study demonstrates that urban women expanded their agency in this period, especially over areas of economic and family life deemed "domestic." This dissertation examines periodicals, consumer research statistics, public opinion surveys, personal interviews, corporate archives, the archives of key women’s organizations, and government officials’ records to identify the role that women and household economies played in Brazilian developmentalism between 1945 and 1975. Its principal argument is that business and political elites attempted to define gender roles for adult urban women as housewives and mothers, linking their management of the household to familial well-being and national modernization. In turn, Brazilian women deployed these idealized roles in public to advance their own economic interests, especially in the management of household finances and consumption, as well as to expand legal rights for married women, and increase women’s participation in the workforce. As the market for women's labor expanded with continued industrialization, these efforts defined a more active role for women in the economy and in debates about the trajectory of national development policies.

Essays in development and political economy

This thesis includes three papers studying diverse questions in development, economic history and political economy. The first two chapters, that fall under development and economic history, use novel forms of text data and analysis to answer the questions at hand. The first chapter studies the possible impact of a historically matrilineal and matrilocal caste group on present day outcomes of gender equality. It introduces a novel surname strategy using electoral data to deduce caste from the surnames of electors and overcomes the unavailability of caste data. It shows proof of persistence of caste in space. And finally, following a matching exercise it concludes that the effect of the matrilineal and matrilocal caste on present day gender outcomes might not be as strong as previously believed. The second paper studies how discriminatory fake news arises and spatially diffuses. It focuses on India at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: on March 30, a Muslim convention (the Tablighi Jamaat) in New Delhi became publicly recognized as a COVID hotspot, and the next day, fake news on Muslims intentionally spreading the virus spiked. Using Twitter data, it finds, in cross-sectional and difference-in-difference settings, that discriminatory fake news became much more widespread after March 30 (1) in New Delhi, (2) in districts closer to New Delhi, and (3) in districts with higher social media interactions with New Delhi. Further, it shows that, after March 30, discriminatory fake news was more common in districts historically exposed to attacks by Muslim groups. The final paper is a political economy paper that studies the short term and long term effect of earlier eligibility on voting in the context of a large North Italian municipality setting with little institutional barriers to voting. It also studies the differing mobilisation of members in the same household by newly eligible voters.

[climacteric Syndrome In A Northeastern Brazilian City: A Household Survey].

To assess the prevalence of Climacteric Syndrome (CS) in women from a municipality of Northeastern Brazil which is less developed socioeconomically. A prospective household survey was performed in São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil with 1,210 climacteric women aged 45 to 60 years. Interviews were applied using previously tested standard questionnaires from April to July 2008. The severity of climacteric symptoms was analyzed by circulatory and psychological indexes and the latter were associated with menopausal status. Multiple correspondence analysis was used to assess the relation among climacteric symptoms. Most patients were 55 to 60 years old (35.3%), mulatto (37.9%), with 9-11 years of schooling (39.8%), with a partner (56%), Catholic (73.9%) and belonged to the socioeconomic class C (51.1%). The prevalence of CS was 85.9%, and hot flashes (56.4%) and sweating (50.4%) were the most prevalent symptoms. The most frequent psychological symptoms were nervousness (45%) and emotional liability (44.8%). The severity of vasomotor and psychological symptoms was significantly higher during the peri and postmenopausal period (p<0.05). Vaginal dryness (62.7%) was the most prevalent urogenital complaint. The prevalence of CS was high among women from São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil.

Discrepancies among ecological, household, and individual data on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil

Information on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil in the three levels of dietary data was analyzed and compared. Data about national supply came from Food Balance Sheets compiled by the FAO; household availability information was obtained from the Brazilian National Household Budget Survey (HBS); and actual intake information came from a large individual dietary intake survey that was representative of the adult population of São Paulo city. All sources of information were collected between 2002 and 2003. A subset of the HBS, representative of São Paulo city, was used in our analysis in order to improve the quality of the comparison with actual intake data. The ratio of national supply to household availability of fruits and vegetables was 2.6 while the ratio of national supply to actual intake was 4.0. The discrepancy ratio in the comparison between household availability and actual intake was smaller, 1.6. While the use of supply and availability data has advantages, as lower cost, must be taken into account that these sources tend to overestimate actual intake of fruits and vegetables.

Per capita versus adult-equivalent estimates of calorie availability in household budget surveys

This study aims to estimate an adult-equivalent scale for calorie requirements and to determine the differences between adult-equivalent and per capita measurements of calorie availability in the Brazilian population. The study used data from the 2002-2003 Brazilian Household Budget Survey. The calorie requirement for a reference adult individual was based on the mean requirements for adult males and females (2,550kcal/day). The conversion factors were defined as the ratios between the calorie requirements for each age group and gender and that of the reference adult. The adult-equivalent calorie availability levels were higher than the per capita levels, with the largest differences in rural and low-income households. Differences in household calorie availability varied from 22kcal/day (households with adults and an adolescent) to 428kcal/day (households with elderly individuals), thus showing that per capital measurements can underestimate the real calorie availability, since they overlook differences in household composition.

Epidemiology of leisure, transportation, occupational, and household physical activity: prevalence and associated factors

Background: To estimate the prevalence of and identify factors associated with physical activity in leisure, transportation, occupational, and household settings. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study aimed at investigating living and health conditions among the population of São Paulo, Brazil. Data on 1318 adults aged 18 to 65 years were used. To assess physical activity, the long version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire was applied. Multivariate analysis was conducted using a hierarchical model. Results: The greatest prevalence of insufficient activity related to transportation (91.7%), followed by leisure (77.5%), occupational (68.9%), and household settings (56.7%). The variables associated with insufficient levels of physical activity in leisure were female sex, older age, low education level, nonwhite skin color, smoking, and self-reported poor health; in occupational settings were female sex, white skin color, high education level, self-reported poor health, nonsmoking, and obesity; in transportation settings were female sex; and in household settings, with male sex, separated, or widowed status and high education level. Conclusion: Physical activity in transportation and leisure settings should be encouraged. This study will serve as a reference point in monitoring different types of physical activities and implementing public physical activity policies in developing countries

Sugar and total energy content of household food purchases in Brazil

Objective To study the role of energy derived from sugar (both table sugar and sugar added to processed foods) in the total energy content of food purchases in Brazil.Design Food purchase data were collected during a national household budget survey carried out between June 2002 and July 2003 on a probabilistic sample representative of all households in the country. The amount of food purchased in this 12-month period was transformed into energy and energy from sugar using food composition tables. Multiple linear regression models were used to study the association between amount of energy from sugar and total energy content of food purchases, controlling for sociodemographic variables and potential interactions between these variables and sugar purchases.Results There was a positive and significant association between energy from sugar and total household energy purchases. A 1 kJ increase in sugar purchase corresponded to a 3·637 kJ increase in total energy. In the absence of expenditure on meals outside the home, i.e. when household food purchases tend to approximate actual food consumption by household members, sugar purchase of 1926·35 kJ/d (the 90th percentile of the distribution of sugar purchases in Brazil) was associated, depending on income strata, with total energy purchase over 40\201360 per cent of the recommended daily value for energy intake in Brazil.Conclusions The present results corroborate the recommendations of the WHO and the Brazilian Ministry of Health regarding limiting the consumption of sugar

Epidemiology of Leisure, Transportation, Occupational, and Household Physical Activity: Prevalence and Associated Factors

Background: To estimate the prevalence of and identify factors associated with physical activity in leisure, transportation, occupational, and household settings. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study aimed at investigating living and health conditions among the population of So Paulo, Brazil. Data on 1318 adults aged 18 to 65 years were used. To assess physical activity, the long version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire was applied. Multivariate analysis was conducted using a hierarchical model. Results: The greatest prevalence of insufficient activity related to transportation (91.7%), followed by leisure (77.5%), occupational (68.9%), and household settings (56.7%). The variables associated with insufficient levels of physical activity in leisure were female sex, older age, low education level, nonwhite skin color, smoking, and self-reported poor health; in occupational settings were female sex, white skin color, high education level, self-reported poor health, nonsmoking, and obesity; in transportation settings were female sex; and in household settings, with male sex, separated, or widowed status and high education level. Conclusion: Physical activity in transportation and leisure settings should be encouraged. This study will serve as a reference point in monitoring different types of physical activities and implementing public physical activity policies in developing countries.

Relatedness and HLA-DRB1 typing may discriminate the magnitude of the genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis using a household contact model

Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.