The rejuvenation of tourism in Barbados 1993-2003 - Reflections on the Butler model

This article examines how Barbados as a mature resort destination has set about rejuvenating its tourism product since the early 1990s, when the number of stop-over tourist arrivals showed year-on-year declines. This has been achieved in three principal ways: the extensive upgrading of existing hotel facilities, especially at the luxury end of the market: the increase of overall tourist capacity, and the development of niche markets, especially golf tourism. At both the outset and the conclusion, the rejuvenation of tourism in Barbados between 1993 and 2003 is viewed in light of Butler's (1980) model of resort-cycle development.

The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

Combination of Tevatron Searches for the Standard Model Higgs Boson in the W+W- Decay Mode

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

A system for 3-D reconstruction of a patient-specific surface model from calibrated X-ray images

This paper presents a system for 3-D reconstruction of a patient-specific surface model from calibrated X-ray images. Our system requires two X-ray images of a patient with one acquired from the anterior-posterior direction and the other from the axial direction. A custom-designed cage is utilized in our system to calibrate both images. Starting from bone contours that are interactively identified from the X-ray images, our system constructs a patient-specific surface model of the proximal femur based on a statistical model based 2D/3D reconstruction algorithm. In this paper, we present the design and validation of the system with 25 bones. An average reconstruction error of 0.95 mm was observed.

Northwards and eastwards velocities extracted from a historical run (for the year 2000) of the UVic Earth System Climate Model of Weaver et al. (2001)

This study provides a theoretical assessment of the potential bias due to differential lateral transport on multi-proxy studies based on a range of marine microfossils. Microfossils preserved in marine sediments are at the centre of numerous proxies for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The precision of proxies is based on the assumption that they accurately represent the overlying watercolumn properties and faunas. Here we assess the possibility of a syn-depositional bias in sediment assemblages caused by horizontal drift in the water column, due to differential settling velocities of sedimenting particles based on their shape, size and density, and due to differences in current velocities. Specifically we calculate the post-mortem lateral transport undergone by planktic foraminifera and a range of other biological proxy carriers (diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets transporting coccolithophores) in several regions with high current velocities. We find that lateral transport of different planktic foraminiferal species is minimal due to high settling velocities. No significant shape- or size-dependent sorting occurs before reaching the sediment, making planktic foraminiferal ideal proxy carriers. In contrast, diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets can be transported up to 500km in some areas. For example in the Agulhas current, transport can lead to differences of up to 2°C in temperature reconstructions between different proxies in response to settling velocities. Therefore, sediment samples are likely to contain different proportions of local and imported particles, decreasing the precision of proxies based on these groups and the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction.

Development and characterization of a rodent model of immune-mediated cholangitis.

The cholangiopathies are a group of hepatobiliary diseases in which intrahepatic bile duct epithelial cells, or cholangiocytes, are the target for a variety of destructive processes, including immune-mediated damage. We tested the hypothesis that cholangitis could be induced in rodents by immunization with highly purified cholangiocytes. Inbred Wistar rats were immunized with purified hyperplastic cholangiocytes isolated after bile duct ligation from either syngeneic Wistar or allogeneic Fischer 344 rats; control rats were immunized with bovine serum albumin (BSA) or hepatocytes. After immunization with cholangiocytes, recipient animals developed histologic evidence of nonsuppurative cholangitis without inflammation in other organs; groups immunized with BSA or hepatocytes showed no cholangitis. Immunohistochemical studies revealed that portal tract infiltrates around bile ducts consisted of CD3-positive lymphocytes, some of which expressed major histocompatibility complex class II antigen; B cells and exogenous monocytes/macrophages were essentially absent. Transfer of unfractionated ConA-stimulated spleen cells from cholangiocyte-immunized (but not BSA-immunized) rats into recipients also caused nonsuppurative cholangitis. Moreover, these splenocytes from cholangiocyte-immunized (but not BSA-immunized) rats were cytotoxic in vitro for cultured rodent cholangiocytes; no cytotoxicity was observed against a rat hepatocyte cell line. Also, a specific antibody response in sera of cholangiocyte-immunized rats was demonstrated by immunoblots against cholangiocyte proteins. Finally, cholangiograms in cholangiocyte-immunized rats showed distortion and tortuosity of the entire intrahepatic biliary ductal system. This unique rodent model of experimental cholangitis demonstrates the importance of immune mechanisms in the pathogenesis of cholangitis and will prove useful in exploring the mechanisms by which the immune system targets and damages cholangiocytes.

Subunit-destabilizing mutations in Drosophila copper/zinc superoxide dismutase: neuropathology and a model of dimer dysequilibrium.

Mutations in Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD), a hallmark of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) in humans, are shown here to confer striking neuropathology in Drosophila. Heterozygotes with one wild-type and one deleted SOD allele retain the expected 50% of normal activity for this dimeric enzyme. However, heterozygotes with one wild-type and one missense SOD allele show lesser SOD activities, ranging from 37% for a heterozygote carrying a missense mutation predicted from structural models to destabilize the dimer interface, to an average of 13% for several heterozygotes carrying missense mutations predicted to destabilize the subunit fold. Genetic and biochemical evidence suggests a model of dimer dysequilibrium whereby SOD activity in missense heterozygotes is reduced through entrapment of wild-type subunits into unstable or enzymatically inactive heterodimers. This dramatic impairment of the activity of wild-type subunits in vivo has implications for our understanding of FALS and for possible therapeutic strategies.

A new continuum model for traffic flow. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of University Research, Washington, D.C.

A new continuum model for traffic flow /

"Final report under contract DOT-RD-82018."