Heart failure as a predictor of functional dependence in hospitalized elderly

AbstractOBJECTIVEIdentify whether Heart Failure (HF) is a predictor of functional dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL) in hospitalized elderly.METHODSWe investigated medical records and assessed dependence to BADL (by the Katz Index) of 100 elderly admitted to a geriatric ward of a university hospital. In order to verify if HF is a predictor of functional dependence, linear regression analyzes were performed.RESULTSThe prevalence of HF was 21%; 95% of them were dependent for BADLs. Bathing was the most committed ADL. HF is a predictor of dependence in hospitalized elderlies, increasing the chance of functional decline by 5 times (95% CI, 0.94-94.48), the chance of functional deterioration by 3.5 times (95% CI, 1.28-11.66; p <0.02) and reducing 0.79 points in the Katz Index score (p <0.05).CONCLUSIONHF is a dependency predictor of ADL in hospitalized elderly, who tend to be more dependent, especially for bathing.

Genetic Loci Associated with C-reactive Protein Levels and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

CONTEXT: Plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) are independently associated with risk of coronary heart disease, but whether CRP is causally associated with coronary heart disease or merely a marker of underlying atherosclerosis is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To investigate association of genetic loci with CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We first carried out a genome-wide association (n = 17,967) and replication study (n = 13,615) to identify genetic loci associated with plasma CRP concentrations. Data collection took place between 1989 and 2008 and genotyping between 2003 and 2008. We carried out a mendelian randomization study of the most closely associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CRP locus and published data on other CRP variants involving a total of 28,112 cases and 100,823 controls, to investigate the association of CRP variants with coronary heart disease. We compared our finding with that predicted from meta-analysis of observational studies of CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. For the other loci associated with CRP levels, we selected the most closely associated SNP for testing against coronary heart disease among 14,365 cases and 32,069 controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Polymorphisms in 5 genetic loci were strongly associated with CRP levels (% difference per minor allele): SNP rs6700896 in LEPR (-14.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -17.6% to -12.0%; P = 6.2 x 10(-22)), rs4537545 in IL6R (-11.5%; 95% CI, -14.4% to -8.5%; P = 1.3 x 10(-12)), rs7553007 in the CRP locus (-20.7%; 95% CI, -23.4% to -17.9%; P = 1.3 x 10(-38)), rs1183910 in HNF1A (-13.8%; 95% CI, -16.6% to -10.9%; P = 1.9 x 10(-18)), and rs4420638 in APOE-CI-CII (-21.8%; 95% CI, -25.3% to -18.1%; P = 8.1 x 10(-26)). Association of SNP rs7553007 in the CRP locus with coronary heart disease gave an odds ratio (OR) of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.01) per 20% lower CRP level. Our mendelian randomization study of variants in the CRP locus showed no association with coronary heart disease: OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.02; per 20% lower CRP level, compared with OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.94 to 0.95; predicted from meta-analysis of the observational studies of CRP levels and coronary heart disease (z score, -3.45; P < .001). SNPs rs6700896 in LEPR (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.09; per minor allele), rs4537545 in IL6R (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91 to 0.97), and rs4420638 in the APOE-CI-CII cluster (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.21) were all associated with risk of coronary heart disease. CONCLUSION: The lack of concordance between the effect on coronary heart disease risk of CRP genotypes and CRP levels argues against a causal association of CRP with coronary heart disease.

Association between valvular surgery and mortality among patients with infective endocarditis complicated by heart failure.

Context Heart failure (HF) is the most common complication of infective endocarditis. However, clinical characteristics of HF in patients with infective endocarditis, use of surgical therapy, and their associations with patient outcome are not well described.Objectives To determine the clinical, echocardiographic, and microbiological variables associated with HF in patients with definite infective endocarditis and to examine variables independently associated with in-hospital and 1-year mortality for patients with infective endocarditis and HF, including the use and association of surgery with outcome.Design, Setting, and Patients The International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study, a prospective, multicenter study enrolling 4166 patients with definite native- or prosthetic-valve infective endocarditis from 61 centers in 28 countries between June 2000 and December 2006.Main Outcome Measures In-hospital and 1-year mortality.Results Of 4075 patients with infective endocarditis and known HF status enrolled, 1359 (33.4% [95% CI, 31.9%-34.8%]) had HF, and 906 (66.7% [95% CI, 64.2%-69.2%]) were classified as having New York Heart Association class III or IV symptom status. Within the subset with HF, 839 (61.7% [95% CI, 59.2%-64.3%]) underwent valvular surgery during the index hospitalization. In-hospital mortality was 29.7% (95% CI, 27.2%-32.1%) for the entire HF cohort, with lower mortality observed in patients undergoing valvular surgery compared with medical therapy alone (20.6% [95% CI, 17.9%-23.4%] vs 44.8% [95% CI, 40.4%-49.0%], respectively; P < .001). One-year mortality was 29.1% (95% CI, 26.0%-32.2%) in patients undergoing valvular surgery vs 58.4% (95% CI, 54.1%-62.6%) in those not undergoing surgery (P < .001). Cox proportional hazards modeling with propensity score adjustment for surgery showed that advanced age, diabetes mellitus, health care-associated infection, causative microorganism (Staphylococcus aureus or fungi), severe HF (New York Heart Association class III or IV), stroke, and paravalvular complications were independently associated with 1-year mortality, whereas valvular surgery during the initial hospitalization was associated with lower mortality.Conclusion In this cohort of patients with infective endocarditis complicated by HF, severity of HF was strongly associated with surgical therapy and subsequent mortality, whereas valvular surgery was associated with lower in-hospital and 1-year mortality.

Implementation study of a clinical prediction score to rule out cardiogenic chest pain in community: Cluster randomized trial

1.1 Fundamentals Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care patients (1 to 3% of all consultations) (1) and its aetiology can be miscellaneous, from harmless to potentially life threatening conditions. In primary care practice, the most prevalent aetiologies are: chest wall syndrome (43%), coronary heart disease (12%) and anxiety (7%) (2). In up to 20% of cases, potentially serious conditions as cardiac, respiratory or neoplasic diseases underlie chest pain. In this context, a large number of laboratory tests are run (42%) and over 16% of patients are referred to a specialist or hospitalized (2).¦A cardiovascular origin to chest pain can threaten patient's life and investigations run to exclude a serious condition can be expensive and involve a large number of exams or referral to specialist -­‐ often without real clinical need. In emergency settings, up to 80% of chest pains in patients are due to cardiovascular events (3) and scoring methods have been developed to identify conditions such as coronary heart disease (HD) quickly and efficiently (4-­‐6). In primary care, a cardiovascular origin is present in only about 12% of patients with chest pain (2) and general practitioners (GPs) need to exclude as safely as possible a potential serious condition underlying chest pain. A simple clinical prediction rule (CPR) like those available in emergency settings may therefore help GPs and spare time and extra investigations in ruling out CHD in primary care patients. Such a tool may also help GPs reassure patients with more common origin to chest pain.

Use of 2D Sensitivity Encoding for Slow-Infusion Contrast-Enhanced Isotropic 3-T Whole-Heart Coronary MR Angiography.

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to improve the blood-pool signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and blood-myocardium contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of slow-infusion 3-T whole-heart coronary MR angiography (MRA).SUBJECTS AND METHODS. In 2D sensitivity encoding (SENSE), the number of acquired k-space lines is reduced, allowing less radiofrequency excitation per cardiac cycle and a longer TR. The former can be exploited for signal enhancement with a higher radiofrequency excitation angle, and the latter leads to noise reduction due to lower data-sampling bandwidth. Both effects contribute to SNR gain in coronary MRA when spatial and temporal resolution and acquisition time remain identical. Numeric simulation was performed to select the optimal 2D SENSE pulse sequence parameters and predict the SNR gain. Eleven patients underwent conventional unenhanced and the proposed 2D SENSE contrast-enhanced coronary MRA acquisition. Blood-pool SNR, blood-myocardium CNR, visible vessel length, vessel sharpness, and number of side branches were evaluated.RESULTS. Consistent with the numeric simulation, using 2D SENSE in contrast-enhanced coronary MRA resulted in significant improvement in aortic blood-pool SNR (unenhanced vs contrast-enhanced, 37.5 +/- 14.7 vs 121.3 +/- 44.0; p < 0.05) and CNR (14.4 +/- 6.9 vs 101.5 +/- 40.8; p < 0.05) in the patient sample. A longer length of left anterior descending coronary artery was visualized, but vessel sharpness, coronary artery coverage, and image quality score were not improved with the proposed approach.CONCLUSION. In combination with contrast administration, 2D SENSE was found effective in improving SNR and CNR in 3-T whole-heart coronary MRA. Further investigation of cardiac motion compensation is necessary to exploit the SNR and CNR advantages and to achieve submillimeter spatial resolution.

Développement, implémentation et utilisation pratique d'un score diagnostique [Development, implementation and practical use of a diagnostic score].

In recent years many clinical prediction rules (CPR) have been developed. Before a CPR can be used in clinical practice, different methodical steps are necessary, from the development of the score, the internal and external validation to the impact study. Before using a CPR in daily practice family doctors have to verify how the rules have been developed and whether this has been done in a population similar to the population in which they would use them. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of a CPR, and to discuss advantages and risks related to the use of CPR in order to help family doctors in their choice of scores for use in their daily practice.

A Prognostic Score to Identify Low-risk Outpatients with Acute Deep Vein Thrombosis in the Lower Limbs.

BACKGROUND: No prior studies have identified which patients with deep vein thrombosis in the lower limbs are at a low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy. METHODS: We used data from the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica (RIETE) to identify patients at low risk for the composite outcome of pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week. We built a prognostic score and compared it with the decision to treat patients at home. RESULTS: As of December 2013, 15,280 outpatients with deep vein thrombosis had been enrolled. Overall, 5164 patients (34%) were treated at home. Of these, 12 (0.23%) had pulmonary embolism, 8 (0.15%) bled, and 4 (0.08%) died. On multivariable analysis, chronic heart failure, recent immobility, recent bleeding, cancer, renal insufficiency, and abnormal platelet count independently predicted the risk for the composite outcome. Among 11,430 patients (75%) considered to be at low risk, 15 (0.13%) suffered pulmonary embolism, 22 (0.19%) bled, and 8 (0.07%) died. The C-statistic was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.65) for the decision to treat patients at home and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.79) for the score (P = .003). Net reclassification improvement was 41% (P < .001). Integrated discrimination improvement was 0.034 for the score and 0.015 for the clinical decision (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Using 6 easily available variables, we identified outpatients with deep vein thrombosis at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home. This score, however, should be validated.

Frailty and risk for heart failure in older adults: The health, aging, and body composition study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the association between frailty and risk for heart failure (HF) in older adults. BACKGROUND: Frailty is common in the elderly and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Impact of frailty on HF risk is not known. METHODS: We assessed the association between frailty, using the Health ABC Short Physical Performance Battery (HABC Battery) and the Gill index, and incident HF in 2825 participants aged 70 to 79 years. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 74 ± 3 years; 48% were men and 59% were white. During a median follow up of 11.4 (7.1-11.7) years, 466 participants developed HF. Compared to non-frail participants, moderate (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.71) and severe frailty (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.47) by Gill index was associated with a higher risk for HF. HABC Battery score was linearly associated with HF risk after adjusting for the Health ABC HF Model (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36 per SD decrease in score) and remained significant when controlled for death as a competing risk (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.00-1.55). Results were comparable across age, sex, and race, and in sub-groups based on diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease at baseline. Addition of HABC Battery scores to the Health ABC HF Risk Model improved discrimination (change in C-index, 0.014; 95% CI 0.018-0.010) and appropriately reclassified 13.4% (net-reclassification-improvement 0.073, 95% CI 0.021-0.125; P = .006) of participants (8.3% who developed HF and 5.1% who did not). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is independently associated with risk of HF in older adults.

Adoption of the Healthy Heart Kit by Alberta family physicians

OBJECTIVE: The Healthy Heart Kit (HHK) is a risk management and patient education kit for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the promotion of CV health. There are currently no published data examining predictors of HHK use by physicians. The main objective of this study was to examine the association between physicians' characteristics (socio-demographic, cognitive, and behavioural) and the use of the HHK. METHODS: All registered family physicians in Alberta (n=3068) were invited to participate in the "Healthy Heart Kit" Study. Consenting physicians (n=153) received the Kit and were requested to use it for two months. At the end of this period, a questionnaire collected data on the frequency of Kit use by physicians, as well as socio-demographic, cognitive, and behavioural variables pertaining to the physicians. RESULTS: The questionnaire was returned by 115 physicians (follow-up rate = 75%). On a scale ranging from 0 to 100, the mean score of Kit use was 61 [SD=26]. A multiple linear regression showed that "agreement with the Kit" and the degree of "confidence in using the Kit" was strongly associated with Kit use, explaining 46% of the variability for Kit use. Time since graduation was inversely associated with Kit use, and a trend was observed for smaller practices to be associated with lower use. CONCLUSION: Given these findings, future research and practice should explore innovative strategies to gain initial agreement among physicians to employ such clinical tools. Participation of older physicians and solo-practitioners in this process should be emphasized.

Association of ECG abnormalities and incident heart failure events

Background: With the aging of the population, the heart failure (HF) incidence and prevalence trends are expected to significantly worsen unless concentrated prevention efforts are undertaken. ECG abnormalities are common in the elderly but data are limited for their association with HF risk. Objective: To assess whether baseline ECG abnormalities or dynamic changes are associated with an increased risk of HF. Method: A prospective cohort study of 2915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without a preexisting HF followed for a median period of 11.4 (IQR 7.0-11.7) years from the Health Aging and Body Composition study. The Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at 4-year. Main outcome measure was adjudicated incident HF events. Using Cox models, the (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score, was assessed. Results: At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During follow-up, 485 (16.6%) participants developed incident HF. After adjusting for the eight clinical variables in the Health ABC HF Risk Score, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities (P for trend <0.001) compared to no ECG abnormalities. The association did not change according to presence of baseline CHD. At 4-year, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities and both were associated with increased HF risk (HR = 1.94, CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR=2.35, CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent compared to no ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.6% of overall participants across the categories of the Health ABC HF Risk Score. Conclusion: Among older adults, baseline ECG abnormalities and changes in them over time are common; both are associated with an increased risk of HF. Whether ECG should be incorporated in routine screening of older adults should be evaluated in randomized controlled trials.

Association of major and minor ECG abnormalities with coronary heart disease events.

CONTEXT: In populations of older adults, prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events through traditional risk factors is less accurate than in middle-aged adults. Electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are common in older adults and might be of value for CHD prediction. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether baseline ECG abnormalities or development of new and persistent ECG abnormalities are associated with increased CHD events. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A population-based study of 2192 white and black older adults aged 70 to 79 years from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (Health ABC Study) without known cardiovascular disease. Adjudicated CHD events were collected over 8 years between 1997-1998 and 2006-2007. Baseline and 4-year ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota Code as major and minor. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the addition of ECG abnormalities to traditional risk factors were examined to predict CHD events. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adjudicated CHD events (acute myocardial infarction [MI], CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization). RESULTS: At baseline, 276 participants (13%) had minor and 506 (23%) had major ECG abnormalities. During follow-up, 351 participants had CHD events (96 CHD deaths, 101 acute MIs, and 154 hospitalizations for angina or coronary revascularizations). Both baseline minor and major ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of CHD after adjustment for traditional risk factors (17.2 per 1000 person-years among those with no abnormalities; 29.3 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.81; for minor abnormalities; and 31.6 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.20-1.90; for major abnormalities). When ECG abnormalities were added to a model containing traditional risk factors alone, 13.6% of intermediate-risk participants with both major and minor ECG abnormalities were correctly reclassified (overall net reclassification improvement [NRI], 7.4%; 95% CI, 3.1%-19.0%; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.99%; 95% CI, 0.32%-2.15%). After 4 years, 208 participants had new and 416 had persistent abnormalities. Both new and persistent ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of subsequent CHD events (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.33-3.02; and HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18-2.34; respectively). When added to the Framingham Risk Score, the NRI was not significant (5.7%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 11.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Major and minor ECG abnormalities among older adults were associated with an increased risk of CHD events. Depending on the model, adding ECG abnormalities was associated with improved risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

Intravenous pamidronate as treatment for osteoporosis after heart transplantation: a prospective study.

Fractures due to osteoporosis are one of the major complications after heart transplantation, occurring mostly during the first 6 months after the graft, with an incidence ranging from 18% to 50% for vertebral fractures. Bone mineral density (BMD) decreases dramatically following the graft, at trabecular sites as well as cortical sites. This is explained by the relatively high doses of glucocorticoids used during the months following the graft, and by a long-term increase of bone turnover which is probably due to cyclosporine. There is some evidence for a beneficial effect on BMD of antiresorptive treatments after heart transplantation. The aim of this study was to assess prospectively the effect on BMD of a 3-year treatment of quarterly infusions of 60 mg of pamidronate, combined with 1 g calcium and 1000 U vitamin D per day, in osteoporotic heart transplant recipients, and that of a treatment with calcium and vitamin D in heart transplant recipients with no osteoporosis. BMD of the lumbar spine and the femoral neck was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in all patients every 6 months for 2 years and after 3 years. Seventeen patients, (1 woman, 16 men) aged 46+/-4 years (mean +/- SEM) received only calcium and vitamin D. A significant decrease in BMD was observed after 6 months following the graft, at the lumbar spine (- 6.6%) as well as at the femoral neck (-7.8%). After 2 years, BMD tended to recover at the lumbar spine, whereas the loss persisted after 3 years at the femoral neck. Eleven patients (1 woman and 10 men) aged 46+/-4 years (mean +/- SEM) started treatment with pamidronate on average 6 months after the graft, because they had osteoporosis of the lumbar spine and/or femoral neck (BMD T-score below -2.5 SD). Over the whole treatment period, a continuous increase in BMD at the lumbar spine was noticed, reaching 18.3% after 3 years (14.3% compared with the BMD at the time of the graft). BMD at the femoral neck was lowered in the first year by -3.4%, but recovered totally after 3 years of treatment. In conclusion, a 3-year study of treatment with pamidronate given every 3 months to patients with existing osteoporosis led to a significant increase in lumbar spine BMD and prevented loss at the femoral neck. However, since some of these patients were treated up to 14 months after the transplant, they may already have passed through the phase of most rapid bone loss. In patients who were not osteoporotic at baseline, treatment with calcium and vitamin D alone was not able to prevent the rapid bone loss that occurs immediately after transplantation.

Randomized trial of a computerized coronary heart disease risk assessment tool in HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) can lead to important metabolic changes and increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Computerized clinical decision support systems have been advocated to improve the management of patients at risk for CHD but it is unclear whether such systems reduce patients' risk for CHD. METHODS: We conducted a cluster trial within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) of HIV-infected patients, aged 18 years or older, not pregnant and receiving cART for >3 months. We randomized 165 physicians to either guidelines for CHD risk factor management alone or guidelines plus CHD risk profiles. Risk profiles included the Framingham risk score, CHD drug prescriptions and CHD events based on biannual assessments, and were continuously updated by the SHCS data centre and integrated into patient charts by study nurses. Outcome measures were total cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and Framingham risk score. RESULTS: A total of 3,266 patients (80% of those eligible) had a final assessment of the primary outcome at least 12 months after the start of the trial. Mean (95% confidence interval) patient differences where physicians received CHD risk profiles and guidelines, rather than guidelines alone, were total cholesterol -0.02 mmol/l (-0.09-0.06), systolic blood pressure -0.4 mmHg (-1.6-0.8), diastolic blood pressure -0.4 mmHg (-1.5-0.7) and Framingham 10-year risk score -0.2% (-0.5-0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Systemic computerized routine provision of CHD risk profiles in addition to guidelines does not significantly improve risk factors for CHD in patients on cART.

Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Predictors of mortality from pump failure and sudden cardiac death in patients with systolic heart failure and left ventricular dyssynchrony: results of the CARE-HF trial.

BACKGROUND: Determining a specific death cause may facilitate individualized therapy in patients with heart failure (HF). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) decreased mortality in the Cardiac Resynchronization in Heart Failure trial by reducing pump failure and sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study analyzes predictors of specific causes of death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate analyses used 8 baseline and 3-month post-randomization variables to predict pump failure and SCD (categorized as "definite," "probable," and "possible"). Of 255 deaths, 197 were cardiovascular. There were 71 SCDs with a risk reduction by CRT of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.76; P = .002) with similar reductions in SCD classified as definite, probable, and possible. Univariate SCD predictors were 3-month HF status (mitral regurgitation [MR] severity, plasma brain natriuretic peptide [BNP], end-diastolic volume, and systolic blood pressure), whereas randomization to CRT decreased risk. Multivariate SCD predictors were randomization to CRT 0.56 (0.53-0.96, P = .035) and 3-month MR severity 1.82 (1.77-2.60, P = .0012). Univariate pump failure death predictors related to baseline HF state (quality of life score, interventricular mechanical delay, end-diastolic volume, plasma BNP, MR severity, and systolic pressure), whereas randomization to CRT and nonischemic cardiomyopathy decreased risk; multivariate predictors of pump failure death were baseline plasma BNP and systolic pressure and randomization to CRT. CONCLUSION: CRT decreased SCD in patients with systolic HF and ventricular dyssynchrony. SCD risk was increased with increased severity of MR (including the 3-month value for MR as a time-dependent covariate) and reduced by randomization to CRT. HF death was increased related to the level of systolic blood pressure, log BNP, and randomization to CRT. These results emphasize the importance and interdependence of HF severity to mortality from pump failure and SCD.