Mean chemical characteristics and volcano signatures of ice cores from Belukha, the Everest and three Svalbard sites

Ice cores from outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are difficult to date because of seasonal melting and multiple sources (terrestrial, marine, biogenic and anthropogenic) of sulfates deposited onto the ice. Here we present a method of volcanic sulfate extraction that relies on fitting sulfate profiles to other ion species measured along the cores in moving windows in log space. We verify the method with a well dated section of the Belukha ice core from central Eurasia. There are excellent matches to volcanoes in the preindustrial, and clear extraction of volcanic peaks in the post-1940 period when a simple method based on calcium as a proxy for terrestrial sulfate fails due to anthropogenic sulfate deposition. We then attempt to use the same statistical scheme to locate volcanic sulfate horizons within three ice cores from Svalbard and a core from Mount Everest. Volcanic sulfate is <5% of the sulfate budget in every core, and differences in eruption signals extracted reflect the large differences in environment between western, northern and central regions of Svalbard. The Lomonosovfonna and Vestfonna cores span about the last 1000 years, with good extraction of volcanic signals, while Holtedahlfonna which extends to about AD1700 appears to lack a clear record. The Mount Everest core allows clean volcanic signal extraction and the core extends back to about AD700, slightly older than a previous flow model has suggested. The method may thus be used to extract historical volcanic records from a more diverse geographical range than hitherto.

Stable isotope stacks from GRIP and GISP ice cores

Recent efforts to link the isotopic composition of snow in Greenland with meteorological and climatic parameters have indicated that relatively local information such as observed annual temperatures from coastal Greenland sites, as well as more synoptic scale features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven, Greenland, and Oslo, Norway, are significantly correlated with d18O and dD values from the past few hundred years measured in ice cores. In this study we review those efforts and then use a new record of isotope values from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Greenland Ice Core Project sites at Summit, Greenland, to compare with meteorological and climatic parameters. This new record consists of six individual annually resolved isotopic records which have been average to produce a Summit stacked isotope record. The stacked record is significantly correlated with local Greenland temperatures over the past century (r=0.471), as well as a number of other records including temperatures and pressures from specific locations as well as temperature and pressure patterns such as the temperature seesaw and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A multiple linear regression of the stacked isotope record with a number of meteorological and climatic parameters in the North Atlantic region reveals that five variables contribute significantly to the variance in the isotope record: winter NAO, solar irradiance (as recorded by sunspot numbers), average Greenland coastal temperature, sea surface temperature in the moisture source region for Summit (30°-20°N), and the annual temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven and Oslo. Combined, these variables yield a correlation coefficient of r=0.71, explaining half of the variance in the stacked isotope record.

Geochemical and Microbiological Studies of Nitrous Oxide Variations within the New NEEM Greenland Ice Core During the Last Glacial Period

Deep polar ice cores provide atmospheric records of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and other trace gases reflecting climate history along with a parallel archive of microbial cells transported with mineral dust, marine and volcanic aerosols from around the globe. Our interdisciplinary study of 32 samples from different depths of the recently drilled NEEM Greenland ice core addressed the question whether the identified microorganisms were capable of post-depositional biological production of N₂O in situ. We used high-resolution geochemical and microbiological approaches to examine the N₂O concentrations, the quantitative distributions of dust, Ca⁺², NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻ ¡ons related to N cycle pathways, the microbial abundance and diversity at specific NEEM core depths from 1758 m to 1867.8 m. Results showed varying concentrations of N₂O (220 –271.5 ppb). Microbial abundance fluctuated between 3.3 x 10⁴ and 3.3 x 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹ in direct correlation with dust and Ca²⁺ concentrations with higher cell numbers deposited during colder periods. The average values of NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻ indicated that substrates were available for the microorganisms capable of utilizing them. PCR amplification of selected functional genes involved in bacterial and archaeal nitrification and denitrification was not successful. Sanger and Illumina MiSeq sequence analyses of SSU rRNA genes showed variable representation of Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, chloroplasts and fungi. The metabolic potential of the dominant genera of Proteobacteria and Firmicutes as possible N₂O producers suggested that denitrification activity may have led to in-situ production and accumulation of N₂O.

An overview of 1000 years of tropical climatic variability from ice cores from the Andes of southern Peru [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Each summer between 1976 and 1984 research was conducted on the Quelccaya Ice Cap with one central objective, to recover an ice core to bedrock from which an approximate 1000 year climatic history for tropical South America could be reconstructed. In 1983 that central objective was accomplished by recovering one core 155 meters in length containing 1350 years and a second core of 163.6 meters containing more than 1500 years of climatic history. ... The most significant climatic event in tropical South America over the last 1500 years was the "Little Ice Age" which is recorded between 1490 to 1880 A.D. in these ice core records. Records from the summit of the Quelccaya Ice Cap show that during the "Little Ice Age" period there was (1) a general increase in particulates (both insoluble and soluble, starting around 1490 A.D. and ending abruptly in 1880 A.D.; (2) an initial increase in net accumulation (1500-1720 A.D.) followed by a period of decreased net accumulation (1720-1860 A.D.); (3) more negative delta-O-18 values beginning in the 1520's and ending around 1880 A.D. The "Little Ice Age" event is evident as a perturbation in all five ice core parameters.

Were last glacial climate events simultaneous between Greenland and France? A quantitative comparison using non-tuned chronologies

Several large abrupt climate fluctuations during the last glacial have been recorded in Greenland ice cores and archives from other regions. Often these Dansgaard-Oeschger events are assumed to have been synchronous over wide areas, and then used as tie-points to link chronologies between the proxy archives. However, it has not yet been tested independently whether or not these events were indeed synchronous over large areas. Here, we compare Dansgaard-Oeschger-type events in a well-dated record from southeastern France with those in Greenland ice cores. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between both archives, we keep their age models independent. Even these well-dated archives possess large chronological uncertainties that prevent us from inferring synchronous climate events at decadal to multi-centennial time scales. If possible, comparisons between proxy archives should be based on independent, non-tuned time-scales. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO2 scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO2 and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO2 concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.

Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr-1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.