A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance--elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet

We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77� N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four “SMB lapse rates”, gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kgm−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kgm−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kgm−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kgm−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

First continuous phosphate record from Greenland ice cores

A continuous and highly sensitive absorption method for detection of soluble phosphate in ice cores has been developed using a molybdate reagent and a 2m liquid waveg- uide (LWCC). The method is optimized to meet the low concentrations of phosphate in Greenland ice, it has a detection limit of around 0.1ppb and a depth resolution of approximately 2cm. The new method has been applied to obtain phosphate concen- trations from segments of two Northern Greenland ice cores: from a shallow firn core covering the most recent 120yr and from the recently obtained deep NEEM ice core in which sections from the late glacial period have been analysed. Phosphate con- centrations in 20th century ice are around 0.32ppb with no indication of anthropogenic influence in the most recent ice. In the glacial part of the NEEM ice core concentra- tions in the cold stadial periods are significantly higher, in the range of 6–24ppb, while interstadial ice concentrations are around 2ppb. In the shallow firn core, a strong cor- relation between concentrations of phosphate and insoluble dust suggests a similar deposition pattern for phosphate and dust. In the glacial ice, phosphate and dust also correlate quite strongly, however it is most likely that this correlation originates from the phosphate binding to dust during transport, with only a fraction coming directly from dust. Additionally a constant ratio between phosphate and potassium concentrations shows evidence of a possible biogenic land source.

Duration of Greenland Stadial 22 and ice-gas Δage from counting of annual layers in Greenland NGRIP ice core

High-resolution measurements of chemical impurities and methane concentrations in Greenland ice core samples from the early glacial period allow the extension of annual-layer counted chronologies and the improvement of gas age-ice age difference (Δage) essential to the synchronization of ice core records. We report high-resolution measurements of a 50 m section of the NorthGRIP ice core and corresponding annual layer thicknesses in order to constrain the duration of the Greenland Stadial 22 (GS-22) between Greenland Interstadials (GIs) 21 and 22, for which inconsistent durations and ages have been reported from Greenland and Antarctic ice core records as well as European speleothems. Depending on the chronology used, GS-22 occurred between approximately 89 (end of GI-22) and 83 kyr b2k (onset of GI-21). From annual layer counting, we find that GS-22 lasted between 2696 and 3092 years and was followed by a GI-21 pre-cursor event lasting between 331 and 369 yr. Our layer-based counting agrees with the duration of stadial 22 as determined from the NALPS speleothem record (3250 ± 526 yr) but not with that of the GICC05modelext chronology (2620 yr) or an alternative chronology based on gas-marker synchronization to EPICA Dronning Maud Land ice core. These results show that GICC05modelext overestimates accumulation and/or underestimates thinning in this early part of the last glacial period. We also revise the possible ranges of NorthGRIP Δdepth (5.49 to 5.85 m) and Δage (498 to 601 yr) at the warming onset of GI-21 as well as the Δage range at the onset of the GI-21 precursor warming (523 to 654 yr), observing that temperature (represented by the δ15N proxy) increases before CH4 concentration by no more than a few decades.