Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Design and flight testing of an integrated solar powered UAV and WSN for greenhouse gas monitoring emissions in agricultural farms

There is an increased interest in measuring the amount of greenhouse gases produced by farming practices . This paper describes an integrated solar powered Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) and Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) gas sensing system for greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural lands. The system uses a generic gas sensing system for CH4 and CO2 concentrations using metal oxide (MoX) and non-dispersive infrared sensors, and a new solar cell encapsulation method to power the unmanned aerial system (UAS)as well as a data management platform to store, analyze and share the information with operators and external users. The system was successfully field tested at ground and low altitudes, collecting, storing and transmitting data in real time to a central node for analysis and 3D mapping. The system can be used in a wide range of outdoor applications at a relatively low operational cost. In particular, agricultural environments are increasingly subject to emissions mitigation policies. Accurate measurements of CH4 and CO2 with its temporal and spatial variability can provide farm managers key information to plan agricultural practices. A video of the bench and flight test performed can be seen in the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwas7stYIxQ

Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia

The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

Influence of organic amendments on greenhouse gas emissions and N use efficiency in sub-tropical cropping systems

This thesis investigated the impact of organic sources of nutrients on greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane), nitrogen use efficiency and biomass production in subtropical cropping soils. The study was conducted in two main soil types in subtropical ecosystems, sandy loam soil and clay soil, with a variety of organic materials from agro-industrial residues and crop residues. It is important for recycling of agro-industrial residues and agricultural residues and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen use efficiency.

Rice husk biochar and crop residue amendment in subtropical cropping soils: Effect on biomass production, nitrogen use efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions

We investigated the effect of maize residues and rice husk biochar on biomass production, fertiliser nitrogen recovery (FNR) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions for three different subtropical cropping soils. Maize residues at two rates (0 and 10 t ha−1) combined with three rates (0, 15 and 30 t ha-1) of rice husk biochar were added to three soil types in a pot trial with maize plants. Soil N2O emissions were monitored with static chambers for 91 days. Isotopic 15N-labelled urea was applied to the treatments without added crop residues to measure the FNR. Crop residue incorporation significantly reduced N uptake in all treatments but did not affect overall FNR. Rice husk biochar amendment had no effect on plant growth and N uptake but significantly reduced N2O and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in two of the three soils. The incorporation of crop residues had a contrasting effect on soil N2O emissions depending on the mineral N status of the soil. The study shows that effects of crop residues depend on soil properties at the time of application. Adding crop residues with a high C/N ratio to soil can immobilise N in the soil profile and hence reduce N uptake and/or total biomass production. Crop residue incorporation can either stimulate or reduce N2O emissions depending on the mineral N content of the soil. Crop residues pyrolysed to biochar can potentially stabilise native soil C (negative priming) and reduce N2O emissions from cropping soils thus providing climate change mitigation potential beyond the biochar C storage in soils. Incorporation of crop residues as an approach to recycle organic materials and reduce synthetic N fertiliser use in agricultural production requires a thorough evaluation, both in terms of biomass production and greenhouse gas emissions.

Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from Australian piggeries

Current research proposal will conduct a review of measurement techniques and recommendation for a suite of techniques to be used in method and measurement protocol development.

Feeding to increase productivity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Feeding to increase productivity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Use of biomass fuels in the brick-making industries of Sudan: Implications for deforestation and greenhouse gas emission

The study focuses on the potential roles of the brick making industries in Sudan in deforestation and greenhouse gas emission due to the consumption of biofuels. The results were based on the observation of 25 brick making industries from three administrative regions in Sudan namely, Khartoum, Kassala and Gezira. The methodological approach followed the procedures outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For predicting a serious deforestation scenario, it was also assumed that all of wood use for this particular purpose is from unsustainable sources. The study revealed that the total annual quantity of fuelwood consumed by the surveyed brick making industries (25) was 2,381 t dm. Accordingly, the observed total potential deforested wood was 10,624 m3, in which the total deforested round wood was 3,664 m3 and deforested branches was 6,961 m3. The study observed that a total of 2,990 t biomass fuels (fuelwood and dung cake) consumed annually by the surveyed brick making industries for brick burning. Consequently, estimated total annual emissions of greenhouse gases were 4,832 t CO2, 21 t CH4, 184 t CO, 0.15 t N20, 5 t NOX and 3.5 t NO while the total carbon released in the atmosphere was 1,318 t. Altogether, the total annual greenhouse gases emissions from biomass fuels burning was 5,046 t; of which 4,104 t from fuelwood and 943 t from dung cake burning. According to the results, due to the consumption of fuelwood in the brick making industries (3,450 units) of Sudan, the amount of wood lost from the total growing stock of wood in forests and trees in Sudan annually would be 1,466,000 m3 encompassing 505,000 m3 round wood and 961,000 m3 branches annually. By considering all categories of biofuels (fuelwood and dung cake), it was estimated that, the total emissions from all the brick making industries of Sudan would be 663,000 t CO2, 2,900 t CH4, 25,300 t CO, 20 t N2O, 720 t NOX and 470 t NO per annum, while the total carbon released in the atmosphere would be 181,000 t annually.

Good science for improving policy: greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural manures

Australia’s and New Zealand’s major agricultural manure management emission sources are reported to be, in descending order of magnitude: (1) methane (CH4) from dairy farms in both countries; (2) CH4 from pig farms in Australia; and nitrous oxide (N2O) from (3) beef feedlots and (4) poultry sheds in Australia. We used literature to critically review these inventory estimates. Alarmingly for dairy farm CH4 (1), our review revealed assumptions and omissions that when addressed could dramatically increase this emission estimate. The estimate of CH4 from Australian pig farms (2) appears to be accurate, according to industry data and field measurements. The N2O emission estimates for beef feedlots (3) and poultry sheds (4) are based on northern hemisphere default factors whose appropriateness for Australia is questionable and unverified. Therefore, most of Australasia’s key livestock manure management greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profiles are either questionable or are unsubstantiated by region-specific research. Encouragingly, GHG from dairy shed manure are relatively easy to mitigate because they are a point source which can be managed by several ‘close-to-market’ abatement solutions. Reducing these manure emissions therefore constitutes an opportunity for meaningful action sooner compared with the more difficult-to-implement and long-term strategies that currently dominate agricultural GHG mitigation research. At an international level, our review highlights the critical need to carefully reassess GHG emission profiles, particularly if such assessments have not been made since the compilation of original inventories. Failure to act in this regard presents the very real risk of missing the ‘low hanging fruit’ in the rush towards a meaningful response to climate change

Baseline and greenhouse-gas emissions in extensive livestock enterprises, with a case study of feeding lipid to beef cattle

For accurate calculation of reductions in greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, methodologies under the Australian Government's Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI) depend on a valid assessment of the baseline and project emissions. Life-cycle assessments (LCAs) clearly show that enteric methane emitted from the rumen of cattle and sheep is the major source of GHG emissions from livestock enterprises. Where a historic baseline for a CFI methodology for livestock is required, the use of simulated data for cow-calf enterprises at six sites in southern Australia demonstrated that a 5-year rolling emission average will provide an acceptable trade off in terms of accuracy and stability, but this is a much shorter time period than typically used for LCA. For many CFI livestock methodologies, comparative or pair-wise baselines are potentially more appropriate than historic baselines. A case study of lipid supplementation of beef cows over winter is presented. The case study of a control herd of 250 cows used a comparative baseline derived from simple data on livestock numbers and class of livestock to quantify the emission abatement. Compared with the control herd, lipid supplementation to cows over winter increased livestock productivity, total livestock production and enterprise GHG emissions from 990 t CO2-e to 1022 t CO2-e. Energy embodied in the supplement and extra diesel used in transporting the supplement diminished the enteric-methane abatement benefit of lipid supplementation. Reducing the cow herd to 238 cows maintained the level of livestock production of the control herd and reduced enterprise emissions to 938 t CO2-e, but was not cost effective under the assumptions of this case study.

Does manure management affect the latent greenhouse gas emitting potential of livestock manures?

With livestock manures being increasingly sought as alternatives to costly synthetic fertilisers, it is imperative that we understand and manage their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we provide the first dedicated assessment into how the GHG emitting potential of various manures responds to the different stages of the manure management continuum (e.g., from feed pen surface vs stockpiled). The research is important from the perspective of manure application to agricultural soils. Manures studied included: manure from beef feedpen surfaces and stockpiles; poultry broiler litter (8-week batch); fresh and composted egg layer litter; and fresh and composted piggery litter. Gases assessed were methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), the two principal agricultural GHGs. We employed proven protocols to determine the manures’ ultimate CH4 producing potential. We also devised a novel incubation experiment to elucidate their N2O emitting potential; a measure for which no established methods exist. We found lower CH4 potentials in manures from later stages in their management sequence compared with earlier stages, but only by a factor of 0.65×. Moreover, for the beef manures this decrease was not significant (P < 0.05). Nitrous oxide emission potential was significantly positively (P < 0.05) correlated with C/N ratios yet showed no obvious relationship with manure management stage. Indeed, N2O emissions from the composted egg manure were considerably (13×) and significantly (P < 0.05) higher than that of the fresh egg manure. Our study demonstrates that manures from all stages of the manure management continuum potentially entail significant GHG risk when applied to arable landscapes. Efforts to harness manure resources need to account for this.

Application of sorbers to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from land-applied pig litter

Nitrous oxide is the foremost greenhouse gas (GHG)generated by land-applied manures and chemical fertilisers (Australian Government 2013). This research project was part of the National Agricultural Manure Management Program and investigated the potential for sorbers (i.e. specific naturally-occurring minerals) to decrease GHG emissions from spent piggery litter (as well as other manures)applied to soils. The sorbers investigated in this research were vermiculite and bentonite. Both are clays with high cation exchange capacities, of approximately 100–150 cmol/kg Faure 1998). The hypothesis tested in this study was that the sorbers bind ammonium in soil solution thereby suppressing ammonia (NH3)volatilisation and in doing so, slowing the kinetics of nitrate formation and associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. A series of laboratory, glasshouse and field experiments were conducted to assess the sorbers’ effectiveness. The laboratory experiments comprised 64 vessels containing manure and sorber/manure ratios ranging from 1 : 10 to 1 : 1 incorporated into a sandy Sodosol via mixing. The glasshouse trial involved 240 pots comprising manure/sorber incubations placed 5 cm below the soil surface, two soil types (sandy Sodosol and Ferrosol) and two different nitrogen (N) application rates (50 kg N/ha and 150 kg N/ha) with a model plant (kikuyu grass). The field trial consisted of 96, 2 m · 2 m plots on a Ferrosol site with digit grass used as a model plant. Manure/ sorber mixtures were applied in trenches (5 cm below surface) to these plots at increasing sorber levels at anNloading rate of 200 kg/ha. Gas produced in all experiments was plumbed into a purpose-built automated gas analysis (N2O, NH3, CH4, CO2) system. In the laboratory experiments, the sorbers showed strong capacity to decreaseNH3 emissions (up to 80% decrease). Ammonia emissions were close to the detection limit in all treatments in the glasshouse and field trial. In all experiments, considerable N2O decreases (>40%) were achieved by the sorbers. As an example, mean N2O emission decreases from the field trial phase of the project are shown in Fig. 1a. The decrease inGHGemissions brought about by the clays did not negatively impact agronomic performance. Both vermiculite and bentonite resulted in a significant increase in dry matter yields in the field trial (Fig. 1b). Continuing work will optimise the sorber technology for improved environmental and agronomic performance across a range of soils (Vertosol, Dermosol in addition to Ferrosol and Sodosols) and environmental parameters (moisture, temperature, porosity, pH).

Establishing turf grass increases soil greenhouse gas emissions in peri-urban environments

Urbanization is becoming increasingly important in terms of climate change and ecosystem functionality worldwide. We are only beginning to understand how the processes of urbanization influence ecosystem dynamics and how peri-urban environments contribute to climate change. Brisbane in South East Queensland (SEQ) currently has the most extensive urban sprawl of all Australian cities. This leads to substantial land use changes in urban and peri-urban environments and the subsequent gaseous emissions from soils are to date neglected for IPCC climate change estimations. This research examines how land use change effects methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes from peri-urban soils and consequently influences the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of rural ecosystems in agricultural use undergoing urbanization. Therefore, manual and fully automated static chamber measurements determined soil gas fluxes over a full year and an intensive sampling campaign of 80 days after land use change. Turf grass, as the major peri-urban land cover, increased the GWP by 415 kg CO2-e ha 1 over the first 80 days after conversion from a well-established pasture. This results principally from increased daily average N2O emissions of 0.5 g N2O ha-1 d-1 from the pasture to 18.3 g N2O ha-1 d-1 from the turf grass due to fertilizer application during conversion. Compared to the native dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest, turf grass establishment increases the GWP by another 30 kg CO2-e ha 1. The results presented in this study clearly indicate the substantial impact of urbanization on soil-atmosphere gas exchange in form of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions particularly after turf grass establishment.

Below-ground processes in meadow soil under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide : - Greenhouse gas fluxes, N cycling and microbial communities

This thesis focuses on how elevated CO2 and/or O3 affect the below-ground processes in semi-natural vegetation, with an emphasis on greenhouse gases, N cycling and microbial communities. Meadow mesocosms mimicking lowland hay meadows in Jokioinen, SW Finland, were enclosed in open-top chambers and exposed to ambient and elevated levels of O3 (40-50 ppb) and/or CO2 (+100 ppm) for three consecutive growing season, while chamberless plots were used as chamber controls. Chemical and microbiological analyses as well as laboratory incubations of the mesocosm soils under different treatments were used to study the effects of O3 and/or CO2. Artificially constructed mesocosms were also compared with natural meadows with regards to GHG fluxes and soil characteristics. In addition to research conducted at the ecosystem level (i.e. the mesocosm study), soil microbial communities were also examined in a pot experiment with monocultures of individual species. By comparing mesocosms with similar natural plant assemblage, it was possible to demonstrate that artificial mesocosms simulated natural habitats, even though some differences were found in the CH4 oxidation rate, soil mineral N, and total C and N concentrations in the soil. After three growing seasons of fumigations, the fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 were decreased in the NF+O3 treatment, and the soil NH4+-N and mineral N concentrations were lower in the NF+O3 treatment than in the NF control treatment. The mesocosm soil microbial communities were affected negatively by the NF+O3 treatment, as the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and fungal PLFA biomasses as well as the fungal:bacterial biomass ratio decreased under elevated O3. In the pot survey, O3 decreased the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and mycorrhizal PLFA biomasses in the bulk soil and affected the microbial community structure in the rhizosphere of L. pratensis, whereas the bulk soil and rhizosphere of the other monoculture, A. capillaris, remained unaffected by O3. Elevated CO2 caused only minor and insignificant changes in the GHG fluxes, N cycling, and the microbial community structure. In the present study, the below-ground processes were modified after three years of moderate O3 enhancement. A tentative conclusion is that a decrease in N availability may have feedback effects on plant growth and competition and affect the N cycling of the whole meadow ecosystem. Ecosystem level changes occur slowly, and multiplication of the responses might be expected in the long run.

Autonomous greenhouse gas sampling using multiple robotic boats

Accurately quantifying total greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. methane) from natural systems such as lakes, reservoirs and wetlands requires the spatial-temporal measurement of both diffusive and ebullitive (bubbling) emissions. Traditional, manual, measurement techniques provide only limited localised assessment of methane flux, often introducing significant errors when extrapolated to the whole-of-system. In this paper, we directly address these current sampling limitations and present a novel multiple robotic boat system configured to measure the spatiotemporal release of methane to atmosphere across inland waterways. The system, consisting of multiple networked Autonomous Surface Vehicles (ASVs) and capable of persistent operation, enables scientists to remotely evaluate the performance of sampling and modelling algorithms for real-world process quantification over extended periods of time. This paper provides an overview of the multi-robot sampling system including the vehicle and gas sampling unit design. Experimental results are shown demonstrating the system’s ability to autonomously navigate and implement an exploratory sampling algorithm to measure methane emissions on two inland reservoirs.