Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

VegMachine - putting pastoralists in the picture

Australia’s rangelands are the extensive arid and semi-arid grazing lands that cover approximately 70% of the Australian continent. They are characterised by low and generally variable rainfall, low productivity and a sparse population. They support a number of industries including mining and tourism, but pastoralism is the primary land use. In some areas, the rangelands have a history of biological decline (Noble 1997), with erosion, loss of perennial native grasses and incursion of woody vegetation commonly reported in the scientific and lay literature. Despite our historic awareness of these trends, the establishment of systems to measure and monitor degradation, has presented numerous problems. The size and accessibility of Australia’s rangeland often mitigates development of extensive monitoring programs. So, too, securing on-going commitment from Government agencies to fund rangeland monitoring activities have led to either abandonment or a scaled-down approach in some instances (Graetz et al. 1986; Holm 1993). While a multiplicity of monitoring schemes have been developed for landholders at the property scale, and some have received promising initial uptake, relatively few have been maintained for more than a few years on any property without at least some agency support (Pickup et al. 1998). But, ironically, such property level monitoring tools can contribute significantly to local decisions about stock, infrastructure and sustainability. Research in recent decades has shown the value of satellites for monitoring change in rangelands (Wallace et al. 2004), especially in terms of tree and ground cover. While steadily improving, use of satellite data as a monitoring tool has been limited by the cost of the imagery, and the equipment and expertise needed to extract useful information from it. A project now under way in the northern rangelands of Australia is attempting to circumvent many of the problems through a monitoring system that allows property managers to use long-term satellite image sequences to quickly and inexpensively track changes in land cover on their properties

Aus meinem Leben 1899-1918

The memoir was written between 1899 and 1918. Family history going back to the early 18th century. Recollection of the author's childhood in Hildesheim. Moritz was the youngest child of Joseph and Bena Guedemann. Early death of his father in 1847. Moritz attended the Jewish elementary school prior to the age of five. In 1843 he was enrolled in the episcopal "Josephinum Gymnasium", where he was the only Jewish student in the entire school. He had friendly relationships with students and teachers and was not confronted with antisemitism during his school years. Moritz Guedemann graduated in 1853 and enrolled in the newly established Jewish Theological Seminary in Breslau. Description of teachers and colleagues in the seminary. Doctorate in 1858 and continuation of rabbinic studies. Occasional invitation to preach at the high holidays in Berlin, where Moritz got acquainted with the famous rabbi Dr. Michael Sachs. Position as a rabbi in Magdeburg in 1862. Small publications of studies in Jewish history. Engagement with Fanny Spiegel. In 1863 Moritz and Fanny Guedemann got married. Offer to succeed rabbi Michael Sachs in Berlin. Division and intrigues in the Jewish community and withdrawing from the position. Invitation to give a sermon in Vienna. In 1866 Moritz Guedemann was nominated to succeed rabbi Mannheimer at the Leopoldstadt synagogue in Vienna. Austro-Prussian war and defeat of Austria in Koeniggraetz. Initial difficulties and cultural differences. Criticism toward his orthodox conduct in the Vienna Jewish press ("Neuzeit"). Cultural life in Vienna. Welfare institutions and philanthropists. Difference within the Jewish community. Crash of the stock exchange and rise of antisemitism. Publication of sermons and studies in Jewish history. In 1891 Max Guedemann became chief rabbi of Vienna. Speeches against antisemitism and blood libel trials. He was awarded with the title "Ritter" of the Kaiser Franz Joseph order for these achievements. Death of his wife in

Beradt Family Collection 1850-1956

Documents related to Ulla Brode, née Beradt and her family.

The global burden of injury: Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

FORCED CONVECTION TO LAMINAR FLOW OF LIQUID EGG YOLK IN CIRCULAR AND ANNULAR DUCTS

The steady-state heat transfer in laminar flow of liquid egg yolk - an important pseudoplastic fluid food - in circular and concentric annular ducts was experimentally investigated. The average convection heat transfer coefficients, determined by measuring temperatures before and after heating sections with constant temperatures at the tube wall, were used to obtain simple new empirical expressions to estimate the Nusselt numbers for fully established flows at the thermal entrance of the considered geometries. The comparisons with existing correlations for Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids resulted in excellent agreement. The main contribution of this work is to supply practical and easily applicable correlations, which are, especially for the case of annulus, rather scarce and extensively required in the design of heat transfer operations dealing with similar shear-thinning products. In addition, the experimental results may support existing theoretical analyses.

Strategic thinking versus strategic planning: towards understanding the complementarities

In an environment characterised by flux and uncertainty, a capacity for innovative, divergent strategic thinking rather than conservative, convergent strategic planning is seen as central to creating and sustaining competitive advantage. As the case study of Communications Co. illustrates, scenario planning is one tool that many organisations, committed to redesigning their strategic planning processes, are using with some success. However, scenario planning requires both left- and right-brain thinking styles. The elements of left-brain thinking reflect the planning side of strategy making, while right-brain thinking mirrors the thinking component of strategy making. The relationship between the factors that enable strategic thinking and the level of “emotional intelligence” of business leaders is also considered. The Communications Co. case findings appear to support the view that while strategic thinking capabilities can be nurtured and diffused through an organisation, it will need business leaders with a high degree of emotional intelligence to lead the way.

Organizing forms in change management: the role of structures, process and boundaries in a longitudinal case analysis

This paper examines change management at William Angliss Institute of Technical and Further Education (TAFE) against the three organizational dimensions of structures, processes and boundaries identified by the INNFORM Study. Its experience confirms that even when an organization adopts a systemic approach and implements change across each design dimension, optimal performance benefits depend on mutually reinforcing and complementary changes. Furthermore, improvement to processes, particularly communications and human resources practices, plays a pivotal role, as complementary change across all dimensions depends ultimately on the contribution and commitment of organization members. Case findings also highlight the need for ambidextrous forms of organizing that combine 'controllability' with 'responsiveness'. The conceptual notion of organizing dualities has been employed to provide a practical interpretation of the ostensibly competing imperatives implied by ambidexterity. This case explores the dualities that can be demonstrated for the INNFORM triumvirate of structures, processes and boundaries. The dualities interpretation emphasizes an acceptance of texture and the simultaneous presence of what are conventionally viewed as incompatible organizing forms. This was considered a useful conceptual vehicle in the analysis of a case study covering nearly ten years of serious change interventions, where one theoretical view can be misleading in understanding the subtleties and complexities of the actual changes that occurred.

Critical perspectives on the evolution of new forms of organising

Calls to dismantle bureaucracy and install new forms of organising ignore the essential role that traditional design forms play in providing structure, order and focus. Flexible organisational forms might be pivotal in turbulent environments for adaptation and innovation, but structure and direction are also necessary to ensure that innovation is focussed and relevant. This paper employs an evolutionary account of the development of new forms of organising. It argues that by adopting a dualities mindset, traditional and new forms of organising can be managed as complementary rather than contradictory work practices, thus accommodating the simultaneous need for flexibility and order.

Duality and organizing forms in change management

Although the fervour proclaiming new forms of organizing as the latest management panacea has not yet subsided, the calls for caution and further investigation have been bolstered by empirical findings. A common outcome of studies concerned with new organizing forms has been a greater awareness of the tensions or dualities between traditional and new forms. In particular, the conventional assumption that the two forms represent contradictory, incompatible forces is coming under increasing scrutiny. The resulting either/or approach to organizing form may be viewed as an inappropriate perspective for researching organizational change as it ignores the complexity and subtlety of organizing form. The reality is that, as new forms of organizing are introduced, they are more likely to supplement rather than supplant existing forms (Sanchez-Runde and Pettigrew 2003). The way forward therefore is to learn how to work with, rather than eliminate, dualities in organizing forms. This paper contends that dualities represent a superior perspective for interpreting organizing forms, and perhaps, foreshadows the direction of a future organizational change research paradigm.

New forms of organising : changing structures, processes and boundaries in a public sector institution

Globalisation, deregulation, privatisation, and advances in communications technologies have intensified competition and impacted on the structures, processes and boundaries that define organisations. Increased competition at both the local and global level calls for increased responsiveness and flexibility, and continuous improvement and innovation. As organisations endeavour to become more attentive and responsive to environmental trends, and customer needs and expectations, they are experimenting with different forms of organising. This has included flattening structures, devolving decision-making responsibility and encouraging greater collaboration and knowledge transfer across functional areas.

The William Angliss Institute of TAFE operates in the post-secondary sector which has experienced significant changes over the past decade as a result of: wide-ranging public sector reforms imposed by successive governments; budgetary cutbacks; accountability and performance improvement pressures; increased national and international competition, industrial relations changes and more demanding, sophisticated customers. This paper draws on the INNFORM Study's three organisational design dimensions of structure, process, and boundaries to examine the nature and degree of change that has taken place at the Institute. Case study findings indicate that while William Angliss has implemetted changes across the three design dimensions, the depth and breadth of these vary and this has impacted on overall performance outcomes. Its experience suggests that even when an organisation adopts a systemic approach and implements changes simultaneously across structure, process and boundaries, optimal performance benefits will not accrue unless these elemental changes are mutually reinforcing and complementary. It also suggests that improvement to processes, particularly communications and human resources practices must be an overarching consideration, as complementary change across all three design dimensions depends ultimately on the contribution and commitment organisational members are prepared to make.

Balancing continuity and change through forms of organising

Faced with increasing environmental complexity and uncertainty, organisations have been urged to replace traditional bureaucratic structures with more flexible, responsive forms of organising. However, the emerging paradox is that exploration and experimentation, features of new forms of organising, benefit from the planning, coordinating and direction-setting mechanisms that underpin traditional forms of organising. It is therefore important to recognise the distinctive and complementary features of traditional and new forms of organising. This demands a dualities-sensitive perspective which encourages, rather than tries to resolve, a constructive tension between seemingly contradictory organising forms such as flexibility and efficiency, autonomy and control, hierarchy and networks, focus and diversification. Managing continuity and change through forms of organising becomes central to building healthy organisations.

New forms of organizing in Australia, 2000-2004

This paper presents preliminary results from a survey of new forms of organizing in the highest grossing Australian owned companies. The Australian NewForms Survey draws on the groundbreaking Innovative Forms of Organizing (INNFORM) Survey conducted in Europe, USA and Japan in the late 1990s (Whittington, Pettigrew, Peck, Fenton, and Conyon 1999). The NewForms study seeks to identify emerging trends in forms of organizing within Australia’s largest companies and the extent to which the uptake of new forms of organizing signals a commensurate decrease in traditional forms. The analysis focuses on changes across three organizational dimensions: structures, processes and boundaries. The results suggest that for organizational structures there has been a significant shift from operational to strategic decentralization. For organizational processes, there have been substantial increases in both horizontal and vertical linkages and in the adoption of a range of new human resource practices. In relation to boundaries, alliances and partnerships have increased, signaling a greater focus on mainstream business activities and a move away from peripheral diversification. Overall, the prevalence of new forms of organizing has increased within Australian companies, but these new forms of organizing have emerged alongside traditional forms. This finding is consistent with research in other countries, and provides further evidence of complementarities between new and traditional forms of organizing.