Variabilidades genética e não genética na mortalidade pré-desmama de bezerros de corte

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Environmental factors influencing the distribution of three species within the genus Persephona Leach, 1817 (Crustacea, Decapoda, Leucosiidae) in two regions on the northern coast of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Patterns of spatio-temporal distribution of Brachyura are determined by the interaction among life history traits, inter and intraspecific relationships, as well as by the variation of abiotic factors. This study aimed to characterize patterns of spatio-temporal distribution of Persephona lichtensteinii, Persephona mediterranea and Persephona punctata in two regions of the northern coast of Sao Paulo State, southeastern region of Brazil. Collections were done monthly from July 2001 to June 2003 in Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba, using a shrimp fishery boat equipped with double-rig nets. The patterns of species distribution were tested by means of redundancy analysis (RDA) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) in relation to the recorded environmental factors (BT: bottom temperature, BS: bottom salinity, OM: organic matter and granulometry (Phi)). The most influent environmental factor over the species distribution was the Phi, and the ascendant order of influence was P. lichtensteinii, P. punctata and P. mediterranea. The greater abundance of P. mediterranea showed a conservative pattern of distribution for the genus in the sampled region. The greater occurrence of P. punctata and P. lichtensteinii, in distinct transects than those occupied by P. mediterranea, seems to be a strategy to avoid competition among congeneric species, which is related to the substratum specificity.

The importance of plant life form on spatial associations along a subtropical coastal dune gradient

Questions Does the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants change along a gradient of sand dunes? Does this association depend on the life form of the understorey plant? Location Coastal sand dunes, southeast Brazil. Methods We recorded the occurrence of understorey plant species in 100 paired 0.25 m2 plots under adult trees and in adjacent treeless sites along an environmental gradient from beach to inland. Occurrence probabilities were modelled as a function of the fixed variables of the presence of a neighbour, distance from the seashore and life form, and a random variable, the block (i.e. the pair of plots). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were fitted in a backward step-wise procedure using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection. Results The occurrence of understorey plants was affected by the presence of an adult tree neighbour, but the effect varied with the life form of the understorey species. Positive spatial association was found between isolated adult neighbour and young trees, whereas a negative association was found for shrubs. Moreover, a neutral association was found for lianas, whereas for herbs the effect of the presence of an adult neighbour ranged from neutral to negative, depended on the subgroup considered. The strength of the negative association with forbs increased with distance from the seashore. However, for the other life forms, the associational pattern with adult trees did not change along the gradient. Conclusions For most of the understorey life forms there is no evidence that the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants changes with the distance from the seashore, as predicted by the stress gradient hypothesis, a common hypothesis in the literature about facilitation in plant communities. Furthermore, the positive spatial association between isolated adult trees and young trees identified along the entire gradient studied indicates a positive feedback that explains the transition from open vegetation to forest in subtropical coastal dune environments.

Whither PQL?

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are generalized linear models with normally distributed random effects in the linear predictor. Penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL), an approximate method of inference in GLMMs, involves repeated fitting of linear mixed models with “working” dependent variables and iterative weights that depend on parameter estimates from the previous cycle of iteration. The generality of PQL, and its implementation in commercially available software, has encouraged the application of GLMMs in many scientific fields. Caution is needed, however, since PQL may sometimes yield badly biased estimates of variance components, especially with binary outcomes. Recent developments in numerical integration, including adaptive Gaussian quadrature, higher order Laplace expansions, stochastic integration and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, provide attractive alternatives to PQL for approximate likelihood inference in GLMMs. Analyses of some well known datasets, and simulations based on these analyses, suggest that PQL still performs remarkably well in comparison with more elaborate procedures in many practical situations. Adaptive Gaussian quadrature is a viable alternative for nested designs where the numerical integration is limited to a small number of dimensions. Higher order Laplace approximations hold the promise of accurate inference more generally. MCMC is likely the method of choice for the most complex problems that involve high dimensional integrals.

Semiparametric Estimation in General Repeated Measures Problems

This paper considers a wide class of semiparametric problems with a parametric part for some covariate effects and repeated evaluations of a nonparametric function. Special cases in our approach include marginal models for longitudinal/clustered data, conditional logistic regression for matched case-control studies, multivariate measurement error models, generalized linear mixed models with a semiparametric component, and many others. We propose profile-kernel and backfitting estimation methods for these problems, derive their asymptotic distributions, and show that in likelihood problems the methods are semiparametric efficient. While generally not true, with our methods profiling and backfitting are asymptotically equivalent. We also consider pseudolikelihood methods where some nuisance parameters are estimated from a different algorithm. The proposed methods are evaluated using simulation studies and applied to the Kenya hemoglobin data.

Changes in the PQRST intervals and heart rate variability associated with rewarming in two newborns undergoing hypothermia therapy.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of hypothermia therapy and subsequent rewarming on the PQRST intervals and heart rate variability (HRV) in term newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). OBJECTIVES: This study describes the changes in the PQRST intervals and HRV during rewarming to normal core body temperature of 2 newborns with HIE after hypothermia therapy. METHODS: Within 6 h after birth, 2 newborns with HIE were cooled to a core body temperature of 33.5 degrees C for 72 h using a cooling blanket, followed by gradual rewarming (0.5 degrees C per hour) until the body temperature reached 36.5 degrees C. Custom instrumentation recorded the electrocardiogram from the leads used for clinical monitoring of vital signs. Generalized linear mixed models were calculated to estimate temperature-related changes in PQRST intervals and HRV. Results: For every 1 degrees C increase in body temperature, the heart rate increased by 9.2 bpm (95% CI 6.8-11.6), the QTc interval decreased by 21.6 ms (95% CI 17.3-25.9), and low and high frequency HRV decreased by 0.480 dB (95% CI 0.052-0.907) and 0.938 dB (95% CI 0.460-1.416), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Hypothermia-induced changes in the electrocardiogram should be monitored carefully in future studies.

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke

OBJECTIVE We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

Determinants of antithrombotic choice for patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke

Objective: We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation. Methods: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) “high-risk” echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings. Results: A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use. Conclusion: Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.

Fine spatial pattern of an epiphytic lichen species is affected by habitat conditions in two forest types in the Iberian Mediterranean region

Persistence and abundance of species is determined by habitat availability and the ability to disperse and colonize habitats at contrasting spatial scales. Favourable habitat fragments are also heterogeneous in quality, providing differing opportunities for establishment and affecting the population dynamics of a species. Based on these principles, we suggest that the presence and abundance of epiphytes may reflect their dispersal ability, which is primarily determined by the spatial structure of host trees, but also by host quality. To our knowledge there has been no explicit test of the importance of host tree spatial pattern for epiphytes in Mediterranean forests. We hypothesized that performance and host occupancy in a favourable habitat depend on the spatial pattern of host trees, because this pattern affects the dispersal ability of each epiphyte and it also determines the availability of suitable sites for establishment. We tested this hypothesis using new point pattern analysis tools and generalized linear mixed models to investigate the spatial distribution and performance of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria, which inhabits two types of host trees (beeches and Iberian oaks). We tested the effects on L. pulmonaria distribution of tree size, spatial configuration, and host tree identity. We built a model including tree size, stand structure, and several neighbourhood predictors to understand the effect of host tree on L. pulmonaria. We also investigated the relative importance of spatial patterning on the presence and abundance of the species, independently of the host tree configuration. L. pulmonaria distribution was highly dependent on habitat quality for successful establishment, i.e., tree species identity, tree diameter, and several forest stand structure surrogates. For beech trees, tree diameter was the main factor influencing presence and cover of the lichen, although larger lichen-colonized trees were located close to focal trees, i.e., young trees. However, oak diameter was not an important factor, suggesting that bark roughness at all diameters favoured lichen establishment. Our results indicate that L. pulmonaria dispersal is not spatially restricted, but it is dependent on habitat quality. Furthermore, new spatial analysis tools suggested that L. pulmonaria cover exhibits a distinct pattern, although the spatial pattern of tree position and size was random.

Fine spatial pattern of an epiphytic lichen species is affected by habitat conditions in two forest types in the Iberian Mediterranean region

Persistence and abundance of species is determined by habitat availability and the ability to disperse and colonize habitats at contrasting spatial scales. Favourable habitat fragments are also heterogeneous in quality, providing differing opportunities for establishment and affecting the population dynamics of a species. Based on these principles, we suggest that the presence and abundance of epiphytes may reflect their dispersal ability, which is primarily determined by the spatial structure of host trees, but also by host quality. To our knowledge there has been no explicit test of the importance of host tree spatial pattern for epiphytes in Mediterranean forests. We hypothesized that performance and host occupancy in a favourable habitat depend on the spatial pattern of host trees, because this pattern affects the dispersal ability of each epiphyte and it also determines the availability of suitable sites for establishment. We tested this hypothesis using new point pattern analysis tools and generalized linear mixed models to investigate the spatial distribution and performance of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria, which inhabits two types of host trees (beeches and Iberian oaks). We tested the effects on L. pulmonaria distribution of tree size, spatial configuration, and host tree identity. We built a model including tree size, stand structure, and several neighbourhood predictors to understand the effect of host tree on L. pulmonaria. We also investigated the relative importance of spatial patterning on the presence and abundance of the species, independently of the host tree configuration. L. pulmonaria distribution was highly dependent on habitat quality for successful establishment, i.e., tree species identity, tree diameter, and several forest stand structure surrogates. For beech trees, tree diameter was the main factor influencing presence and cover of the lichen, although larger lichen-colonized trees were located close to focal trees, i.e., young trees. However, oak diameter was not an important factor, suggesting that bark roughness at all diameters favoured lichen establishment. Our results indicate that L. pulmonaria dispersal is not spatially restricted, but it is dependent on habitat quality. Furthermore, new spatial analysis tools suggested that L. pulmonaria cover exhibits a distinct pattern, although the spatial pattern of tree position and size was random.

Tree and grazing influence on herbaceous pasture diversity in the Dehesa agroforestry system

Mediterranean Dehesas are one of the European natural habitat types of Community interest (43/92/EEC Directive), associated to high diversity levels and producer of important goods and services. In this work, tree contribution and grazing influence over pasture alpha diversity in a Dehesa in Central Spain was studied. We analyzed Richness and Shannon-Wiener (SW) indexes on herbaceous layer under 16 holms oak trees (64 sampling units distributed in two directions and in two distances to the trunk) distributed in four different grazing management zones (depending on species and stocking rate). Floristic composition by species or morphospecies and species abundance were analyzed for each sample unit. Linear mixed models (LMM) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to study relationships between alpha diversity measures and independent factors. Edge crown influence showed the highest values of Richness and SW index. No significant differences were found between orientations under tree crown influence. Grazing management had a significant effect over Richness and SW measures, specially the grazing species (cattle or sheep). We preliminary quantify and analyze the interaction of tree stratum and grazing management over herbaceous diversity in a year of extreme climatic conditions.

Deforestación y Pérdida de hábitat en Bosques de montaña en la Cuenca alta del Río Zamora (Loja, Ecuador)

Los bosques húmedos de montaña se encuentran reconocidos como uno de los ecosistemas más amenazados en el mundo, llegando inclusive a ser considerado como un “hotspot” por su alta diversidad y endemismo. La acelerada pérdida de cobertura vegetal de estos bosques ha ocasionado que, en la actualidad, se encuentren restringidos a una pequeña fracción de su área de distribución histórica. Pese a esto, los estudios realizados sobre cual es efecto de la deforestación, fragmentación, cambios de uso de suelo y su efecto en las comunidades de plantas presentes en este tipo de vegetación aún son muy escuetos, en comparación a los realizados con sus similares amazónicos. En este trabajo, el cual se encuentra dividido en seis capítulos, abordaremos los siguientes objetivos: a) Comprender cuál es la dinámica que han seguido los diferentes tipos de bosques montanos andinos de la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador durante entre 1976 y 2002. b) Proveer de evidencia de las tasas de deforestación y fragmentación de todos los tipos diferentes de bosques montanos andinos presentes en la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador entre 1976 y 2002. c) Determinar qué factores inducen a la fragmentación de bosques de montaña en la cuenca alta del río Zamora entre 1976 y 2002. d) Determinar cuáles son y cómo afectan los factores ambientales y socioeconómicos a la dinámica de la deforestación y regeneración (pérdida y recuperación del hábitat) sufrida por los bosques de montaña dentro de la zona de estudio y e) Determinar si la deforestación y fragmentación actúan sobre la diversidad y estructura de las comunidades de tres tipos de organismos (comunidades de árboles, comunidades de líquenes epífitos y comunidades de hepáticas epífitas). Este estudio se centró en el cuenca alta del río Zamora, localizada al sur de Ecuador entre las coordenadas 3º 00´ 53” a 4º 20´ 24.65” de latitud sur y 79º 49´58” a 78º 35´ 38” de longitud oeste, que cubre alrededor de 4300 km2 de territorio situado entre las capitales de las provincias de Loja y Zamora-Chinchipe. Con objeto de predecir la dinámica futura de la deforestación en la región de Loja y cómo se verán afectados los diferentes tipos de hábitat, así como para detectar los factores que más influyen en dicha dinámica, se han construido modelos basados en la historia de la deforestación derivados de fotografías aéreas e imágenes satelitales de tres fechas (1976, 1989 y 2002). La cuantificación de la deforestación se realizó mediante la tasa de interés compuesto y para la caracterización de la configuración espacial de los fragmentos de bosque nativo se calcularon índices de paisaje los cuales fueron calculados utilizando el programa Fragstats 3.3. Se ha clasificado el recubrimiento del terreno en forestal y no forestal y se ha modelado su evolución temporal con Modelos Lineales Generalizados Mixtos (GLMM), empleando como variables explicativas tanto variables ambientales espacialmente explícitas (altitud, orientación, pendiente, etc) como antrópicas (distancia a zonas urbanizadas, deforestadas, caminos, entre otras). Para medir el efecto de la deforestación sobre las comunidades modelo (de árboles, líquenes y hepáticas) se monitorearon 11 fragmentos de vegetación de distinto tamaño: dos fragmentos de más de cien hectáreas, tres fragmentos de entre diez y noventa ha y seis fragmentos de menos de diez hectáreas. En ellos se instalaron un total de 38 transectos y 113 cuadrantes de 20 x 20 m a distancias que se alejaban progresivamente del borde en 10, 40 y 80 m. Nuestros resultados muestran una tasa media anual de deforestación del 1,16% para todo el período de estudio, que el tipo de vegetación que más alta tasa de destrucción ha sufrido, es el páramo herbáceo, con un 2,45% anual. El análisis de los patrones de fragmentación determinó un aumento en 2002 de más del doble de fragmentos presentes en 1976, lo cual se repite en el análisis del índice de densidad promedio. El índice de proximidad media entre fragmentos muestra una reducción progresiva de la continuidad de las áreas forestadas. Si bien las formas de los fragmentos se han mantenido bastante similares a lo largo del período de estudio, la conectividad entre estos ha disminuido en un 84%. Por otro lado, de nuestros análisis se desprende que las zonas con mayor probabilidad de deforestarse son aquellas que están cercanas a zonas previamente deforestadas; la cercanía a las vías también influye significativamente en la deforestación, causando un efecto directo en la composición y estructura de las comunidades estudiadas, que en el caso de los árboles viene mediado por el tamaño del fragmento y en el caso del componente epífito (hepáticas y líquenes), viene mediado tanto por el tamaño del fragmento como por la distancia al borde del mismo. Se concluye la posibilidad de que, de mantenerse esta tendencia, este tipo de bosques desaparecerá en corto tiempo y los servicios ecosistémicos que prestan, se verán seriamente comprometidos. ABSTRACT Mountain rainforests are recognized as one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and have even come to be considered as a “hotspot” due to their high degree of diversity and endemism. The accelerated loss of plant cover of these forests has caused them to be restricted today to a small fraction of their area of historic distribution. In spite of this, studies done on the effect of deforestation, fragmentation, changes in soil use and their effect on the plant communities present in this type of vegetation are very brief compared to those done on their analogues in the Amazon region. In this study, which is divided into six chapters, we will address the following objectives: a) To understand what the dynamic followed by the different types of Andean mountain forests in the Zamora River watershed of southern Ecuador has been between 1976 and 2002. b) To provide evidence of the rates of deforestation and fragmentation of all the different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. c) To determine the factors that induces fragmentation of all different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. d) To determine what the environmental and anthropogenic factors are driving the dynamic of deforestation and regeneration (loss and recuperation of the habitat) suffered by the mountain forests in the area of the study and e) To determine if the deforestation and fragmentation act upon the diversity and structure of three model communities: trees, epiphytic lichens and epiphytic liverworts. This study is centered on the upper Zamora River watershed, located in southern Ecuador between 3º 00´ 53” and 4º 20´ 24.65 south latitude and 79º 49´ 58” to 78º 35´ 38” west longitude, and covers around 4,300 km2 of territory located between Loja and Zamora-Chinchipe provinces. For the purpose of predicting the future dynamic of deforestation in the Loja region and how different types of habitats will be affected, as well as detecting the environmental and socioeconomic factors that influence landscape dynamics, models were constructed based on deforestation history, derived from aerial photographs and satellite images for three dates (1976, 1989 and 2002). Quantifying the deforestation was done using the compound interest rate; to characterize the spatial configuration of fragments of native forest, landscape indices were calculated with Fragstats 3.3 program. Land cover was classified as forested and not forested and its evolution over time was modeled with Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM), using spatially explicit environmental variables (altitude, orientation, slope, etc.) as well as anthropic variables (distance to urbanized, deforested areas and roads, among others) as explanatory variables. To measure the effects of fragmentation on three types of model communities (forest trees and epiphytic lichen and liverworts), 11 vegetation fragments of different sizes were monitored: two fragments of more than one hundred hectares, three fragments of between ten and ninety ha and six fragments of fewer than ten hectares . In these fragments, a total of 38 transects and 113 20 x 20 m quadrats were installed at distances that progressively moved away from the edge of the fragment by 10, 40 and 80 m. Our results show an average annual rate of deforestation of 1.16% for the entire period of the study, and that the type of vegetation that suffered the highest rate of destruction was grassy paramo, with an annual rate of 2.45%. The analysis of fragmentation patterns determined the number of fragments in 2002 more than doubled the number of fragments present in 1976, and the same occurred for the average density index. The variation of the average proximity index among fragments showed a progressive reduction of the continuity of forested areas. Although fragment shapes have remained quite similar over the period of the study, connectivity among them has diminished by 84%. On the other hand, it emerged from our analysis that the areas of greatest probability of deforestation were those that are close to previously deforested areas; proximity to roads also significantly favored the deforestation causing a direct effect on the composition of our model communities, that in the case of forest trees is determined by the size of the fragment, and in the case of the epiphyte communities (liverworts and lichens), is determined, by the size of the fragment as well as the distance to edge. A subject under discussion is the possibility that if this tendency continues, this type of forest will disappear in a short time, and the ecological services it provides, will be seriously endangered.

Análise genética da produção in vitro de embriões em bovinos Guzerá

O objetivo dessa pesquisa foi avaliar aspectos genéticos que relacionados à produção in vitro de embriões na raça Guzerá. O primeiro estudo focou na estimação de (co) variâncias genéticas e fenotípicas em características relacionadas a produção de embriões e na detecção de possível associação com a idade ao primeiro parto (AFC). Foi detectada baixa e média herdabilidade para características relacionadas à produção de oócitos e embriões. Houve fraca associação genética entre características ligadas a reprodução artificial e a idade ao primeiro parto. O segundo estudo avaliou tendências genéticas e de endogamia em uma população Guzerá no Brasil. Doadoras e embriões produzidos in vitro foram considerados como duas subpopulações de forma a realizar comparações acerca das diferenças de variação anual genética e do coeficiente de endogamia. A tendência anual do coeficiente de endogamia (F) foi superior para a população geral, sendo detectado efeito quadrático. No entanto, a média de F para a sub- população de embriões foi maior do que na população geral e das doadoras. Foi observado ganho genético anual superior para a idade ao primeiro parto e para a produção de leite (305 dias) entre embriões produzidos in vitro do que entre doadoras ou entre a população geral. O terceiro estudo examinou os efeitos do coeficiente de endogamia da doadora, do reprodutor (usado na fertilização in vitro) e dos embriões sobre resultados de produção in vitro de embriões na raça Guzerá. Foi detectado efeito da endogamia da doadora e dos embriões sobre as características estudadas. O quarto (e último) estudo foi elaborado para comparar a adequação de modelos mistos lineares e generalizados sob método de Máxima Verossimilhança Restrita (REML) e sua adequação a variáveis discretas. Quatro modelos hierárquicos assumindo diferentes distribuições para dados de contagem encontrados no banco. Inferência foi realizada com base em diagnósticos de resíduo e comparação de razões entre componentes de variância para os modelos em cada variável. Modelos Poisson superaram tanto o modelo linear (com e sem transformação da variável) quanto binomial negativo à qualidade do ajuste e capacidade preditiva, apesar de claras diferenças observadas na distribuição das variáveis. Entre os modelos testados, a pior qualidade de ajuste foi obtida para o modelo linear mediante transformação logarítmica (Log10 X +1) da variável resposta.

Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for categorical longitudinal data from a social survey of immigrants

The paper investigates a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from a large social survey of immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject are observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and the explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia.