What makes people stay in or leave shrinking cities? An empirical study from Portugal

The relative attractiveness of cities as places to live determines population movements in or out of them. Understanding the appealing features of a city is fundamental to local governments, particularly for cities facing population decline. Pull and push attributes of cities can include economic aspects, the availability of amenities and psychological constructs, initiating a discussion around which factors are more relevant in explaining migration. However, a pull–push approach has been underexplored in studies of shrinking cities. In the present study, we contribute to the discussion by identifying pull and push factors in Portuguese shrinking cities. Data were collected using a face-to-face questionnaire survey of 701 residents in four shrinking cities: Oporto, Barreiro, Peso da Régua and Moura. Factor analysis and automatic linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Our results support previous findings that the economic activity of a city is the most relevant feature for retaining residents. However, other characteristics specific to each city, especially those related to heritage and natural beauty, are also shown to influence a city’s attractiveness as a place to live. The cause of population shrinkage is also found to influence residents’ assessments of the pull and push attributes of each city. Furthermore, the results show the relevance of social ties and of place attachment to inhabitants’ intention to continue living in their city of residence.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Characterisation of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) larval habitats at ground level and temporal fluctuations of larval abundance in Córdoba, Argentina

The aims of this study were to characterise the ground-level larval habitats of the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, to determine the relationships between habitat characteristics and larval abundance and to examine seasonal larval-stage variations in Córdoba city. Every two weeks for two years, 15 larval habitats (natural and artificial water bodies, including shallow wells, drains, retention ponds, canals and ditches) were visited and sampled for larval mosquitoes. Data regarding the water depth, temperature and pH, permanence, the presence of aquatic vegetation and the density of collected mosquito larvae were recorded. Data on the average air temperatures and accumulated precipitation during the 15 days prior to each sampling date were also obtained. Cx. quinquefasciatus larvae were collected throughout the study period and were generally most abundant in the summer season. Generalised linear mixed models indicated the average air temperature and presence of dicotyledonous aquatic vegetation as variables that served as important predictors of larval densities. Additionally, permanent breeding sites supported high larval densities. In Córdoba city and possibly in other highly populated cities at the same latitude with the same environmental conditions, control programs should focus on permanent larval habitats with aquatic vegetation during the early spring, when the Cx. quinquefasciatus population begins to increase.

She’s a femme fatale: low-density larval development produces good disease vectors

Two hypotheses for how conditions for larval mosquitoes affect vectorial capacity make opposite predictions about the relationship of adult size and frequency of infection with vector-borne pathogens. Competition among larvae produces small adult females. The competition-susceptibility hypothesis postulates that small females are more susceptible to infection and predicts frequency of infection should decrease with size. The competition-longevity hypothesis postulates that small females have lower longevity and lower probability of becoming competent to transmit the pathogen and thus predicts frequency of infection should increase with size. We tested these hypotheses for Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. In the laboratory, longevity increases with size, then decreases at the largest sizes. For field-collected females, generalised linear mixed model comparisons showed that a model with a linear increase of frequency of dengue with size produced the best Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Consensus prediction of three competing models indicated that frequency of infection increases monotonically with female size, consistent with the competition-longevity hypothesis. Site frequency of infection was not significantly related to site mean size of females. Thus, our data indicate that uncrowded, low competition conditions for larvae produce the females that are most likely to be important vectors of dengue. More generally, ecological conditions, particularly crowding and intraspecific competition among larvae, are likely to affect vector-borne pathogen transmission in nature, in this case via effects on longevity of resulting adults. Heterogeneity among individual vectors in likelihood of infection is a generally important outcome of ecological conditions impacting vectors as larvae.

Drivers of human resource management competences development in Brazilian multinational subsidiaries: a multilevel research

This article aims to verify the factors associated with the development of human resource management (HRM) competences in foreign subsidiaries of Brazilian multinationals. These competences are essential in that they allow foreign units to adopt HRM practices that are consistent with the countries or markets in which they operate. A multilevel research was conducted, involving headquarters and subsidiaries of major Brazilian companies; the empirical analysis employed hierarchical linear modelling. Despite the recurrent debate on global standardisation versus local adaptation, it was identified that the integration of international HRM policies (addressing simultaneously global guidelines and local response) may stimulate competences development. In addition, interaction in external networks in the host country may enhance the development of HRM competences in the subsidiaries. However, specific cultural factors of the company may inhibit development activity in units abroad.

Opportunity for catch-up HPV vaccination in young women after first delivery.

Background Early age at first delivery has been identified as a risk factor for high-risk HPV-type infection and cervical cancer development. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. During June 2006 to February 2007, 301 women aged 15-24 years who gave birth to their first child were recruited between 43 and 60 days after delivery. Detection of HPV DNA in cervical specimens was performed using a standardised PCR protocol with PGMY09/11 primers. The association of selected factors with HPV infection was assessed by using a Generalised Linear Model. Results HPV DNA was detected in 58.5% (95% CI 52.7% to 64.0%) of the enrolled young women. The most common types of HPV found were: HPV16, HPV51, HPV52, HPV58 and HPV71. The overall prevalence of HPV types targeted by the HPV prophylactic vaccines was: HPV 16-12.0%, HPV 18-2.3% and HPV 6 and 11 4.3%. In the multivariate analysis, only age (inversely, p for trend=0.02) and smoking habits were independently associated with HPV infection. Conclusions The findings show that these young primiparous women had high cervical HPV prevalence, suggesting that this is a high-risk group for cervical cancer development. Nevertheless, 17.3% were positive for any of the four HPV types included in HPV vaccines (HPV6, 11, 16 or 18), with 13.3% positive for HPV 16 or 18 and only 1.0% having both vaccine related-oncogenic HPV types. Thus, young primiparous women could benefit from catch-up HPV vaccination programmes.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Evaluating effects of spectral training data distribution on continuous field mapping performance

Continuous field mapping has to address two conflicting remote sensing requirements when collecting training data. On one hand, continuous field mapping trains fractional land cover and thus favours mixed training pixels. On the other hand, the spectral signature has to be preferably distinct and thus favours pure training pixels. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of training data distribution along fractional and spectral gradients on the resulting mapping performance. We derived four continuous fields (tree, shrubherb, bare, water) from aerial photographs as response variables and processed corresponding spectral signatures from multitemporal Landsat 5 TM data as explanatory variables. Subsequent controlled experiments along fractional cover gradients were then based on generalised linear models. Resulting fractional and spectral distribution differed between single continuous fields, but could be satisfactorily trained and mapped. Pixels with fractional or without respective cover were much more critical than pure full cover pixels. Error distribution of continuous field models was non-uniform with respect to horizontal and vertical spatial distribution of target fields. We conclude that a sampling for continuous field training data should be based on extent and densities in the fractional and spectral, rather than the real spatial space. Consequently, adequate training plots are most probably not systematically distributed in the real spatial space, but cover the gradient and covariate structure of the fractional and spectral space well. (C) 2009 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How much protein and energy are needed to equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in ventilated critically ill children?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Protein and energy requirements in critically ill children are currently based on insufficient data. Moreover, longitudinal measurements of both total urinary nitrogen (TUN) and resting energy expenditure (REE) are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate how much protein and energy are needed to equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in ventilated critically ill children on the basis of daily measurements of TUN, REE and protein and energy intakes. Comparisons were made with the guidelines of the American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition and the Dietary Reference Intakes. METHODS: Children with an expected duration of mechanical ventilation ≥72 h were prospectively recruited. TUN was measured by chemiluminescence, and REE was measured by indirect calorimetry. Generalised linear models for longitudinal data were used to study the relation between protein intake and nitrogen balance and to calculate the minimum intake of protein needed to achieve nitrogen equilibrium. A similar approach was used for energy. Results were compared to the recommended values. RESULTS: Based on 402 measurements performed in 74 children (median age: 21 months), the mean TUN was high at 0.20 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.22) g/kg/d and the REE was 55 (95% CI: 54, 57) kcal/kg/d. Nitrogen and energy balances were achieved with 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4, 1.6) g/kg/d of protein and 58 (95% CI: 53, 63) kcal/kg/d for the entire group, but there were differences among children of different ages. Children required more protein and less energy than the Dietary Reference Intakes. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill children, TUN was elevated and REE was reduced during the entire period of mechanical ventilation. Minimum intakes of 1.5 g/kg/d of protein and 58 kcal/kg/d can equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in children up to 4 years old. Older children require more protein.

Vigor and field emergence in "high oleic" sunflower seeds, in southeast of Buenos Aires province

Sunflower crop was based, as yet, on high linoleic cultivars, but in the last years request for oil with higher content of oleic acid has increased, due to their dietary characteristics. At the beginning, high oleic cultivars were used to be sown in warm regions, but then the concern about growing it in temperate areas, as the south-east of Buenos Aires Province, was posed. In this region, early sowings are recommended, so that grain filling matches with a period of appropriate hydric and light conditions, as to result in greater yields. However, early sowings are limited by low soil temperature, that delays seedling emergence, resulting in heterogeneous stand establishment. The aim of this work was to evaluate seed performance of four high oleic cultivars in the southern area of Buenos Aires Province, by means of vigor tests and field trials. Germination, cold, tetrazolium viability, tetrazolium viability with cold, accelerated ageing tests and three field sowings at different soil temperatures were performed. Data were analyzed by Anova using generalised linear models, and tests and cultivars were contrasted among themselves. Similar seedling emergence under optimal and suboptimal temperatures for high oleic and high linoleic cultivars was recorded. The success of seedling establishment does not appear to be related to the acidic composition of seeds.

Étude du comportement et des contextes associés à la consommation d’aliments sucrés dans une communauté montréalaise originaire du Moyen-Orient

L’Organisation mondiale de la Santé recommande aux individus de limiter leur consommation d’aliments sucrés dans le but de prévenir le développement des maladies chroniques. En santé publique, peu de recherches ont tenté d’identifier les facteurs individuels et contextuels qui peuvent influencer conjointement la consommation de ces aliments. Or, de telles connaissances seraient utiles pour guider les interventions nutritionnelles visant à en réduire la consommation. L’objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier les facteurs reliés au comportement et les contextes associés à la consommation quotidienne d’aliments sucrés chez des adultes vivant dans un milieu urbain occidental. Cette étude a été menée auprès d'une communauté moyen-orientale établie dans la Ville de Montréal. Les aliments sucrés ont été définis comme étant les glucides raffinés dont la teneur en sucres totaux dépasse 20 % de l’énergie totale. Lors de l’étape exploratoire (N = 42), un rappel de 24 heures a permis d’identifier les sources d’aliments sucrés et de déterminer l’apport quotidien en sucres totaux de cette communauté. Une étude qualitative descriptive a été privilégiée et un cadre écologique a guidé la réalisation d’entrevues semi-dirigées sur les contextes de consommation (N = 42). Une analyse de contenu employant des procédures de codage initial et focus a mené à l’élaboration d’un instrument de mesure quantitatif sur les contextes de consommation. Cet instrument a été soumis à un pré-test (N = 20), puis administré à l’échantillon principal (N = 192). Une analyse factorielle exploratoire a permis de préciser les contextes de consommation. Les facteurs individuels mesurés incluent les données sociodémographiques, les symptômes dépressifs, la maîtrise de soi, l’assoupissement de jour, les perceptions ainsi que l’hémoglobine glycosylée. La consommation quotidienne de sucres totaux a été mesurée par un questionnaire de fréquence alimentaire (N = 192). Une analyse de régression multivariée employant le modèle linéaire généralisé (distribution de type gamma et lien logarithmique) a été effectuée pour mesurer les relations entre les contextes de consommation, les facteurs individuels et la consommation de sucres totaux, en contrôlant l’âge et le sexe. L’apport quotidien en sucres totaux de l'échantillon est de 20,3 %, ce qui s’apparente aux apports des Canadiens et des Québécois. La consommation quotidienne moyenne est de 76 g/j. Les analyses qualitative et factorielle ont permis d’identifier un ensemble de 42 contextes de consommation regroupés en sept domaines (Actes et situations de grignotage, Stimuli visuels, Besoins énergétiques, Besoins émotionnels, Indulgence, Contraintes, Socialisation). La consommation quotidienne de sucres totaux est supérieure chez les hommes (B = 0,204, ES = 0,094, p = 0,03). Les facteurs positivement associés à la consommation sont le grignotage (B = 0,225, ES = 0,091, p = 0,01), la prise de dessert (B = 0,105, ES = 0,036, p = 0,001) ainsi que les symptômes dépressifs (B = 0,017, ES = 0,094, p = 0,03). L’âge (B = -0,01, ES = 0,004, p = 0,02), l’indulgence (B = -0,103, ES = 0,052, p = 0,05) et l’auto-modération (B = -0,121, ES = 0,042, p = 0,001) montrent, pour leur part, une association négative. Cette étude a privilégié une méthodologie mixte et a permis de développer une mesure innovatrice pour étudier les facteurs contextuels associés à la consommation d’aliments sucrés. Ceux-ci ont été analysés conjointement avec les facteurs individuels. Afin d'encourager les individus à réduire leur consommation de sucres totaux lorsque nécessaire, les initiatives en santé publique devraient en effet cibler les contextes de consommation de même que les facteurs individuels.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Aspectes metodològics i aplicacions de la modelització del temps de supervivència multivariant mitjançant models mixtes

Els estudis de supervivència s'interessen pel temps que passa des de l'inici de l'estudi (diagnòstic de la malaltia, inici del tractament,...) fins que es produeix l'esdeveniment d'interès (mort, curació, millora,...). No obstant això, moltes vegades aquest esdeveniment s'observa més d'una vegada en un mateix individu durant el període de seguiment (dades de supervivència multivariant). En aquest cas, és necessari utilitzar una metodologia diferent a la utilitzada en l'anàlisi de supervivència estàndard. El principal problema que l'estudi d'aquest tipus de dades comporta és que les observacions poden no ser independents. Fins ara, aquest problema s'ha solucionat de dues maneres diferents en funció de la variable dependent. Si aquesta variable segueix una distribució de la família exponencial s'utilitzen els models lineals generalitzats mixtes (GLMM); i si aquesta variable és el temps, variable amb una distribució de probabilitat no pertanyent a aquesta família, s'utilitza l'anàlisi de supervivència multivariant. El que es pretén en aquesta tesis és unificar aquests dos enfocs, és a dir, utilitzar una variable dependent que sigui el temps amb agrupacions d'individus o d'observacions, a partir d'un GLMM, amb la finalitat d'introduir nous mètodes pel tractament d'aquest tipus de dades.

Imagery rescripting as a brief stand-alone treatment for depressed patients with intrusive memories

Many depressed patients report intrusive and distressing memories of specific events in their lives. Where present, these memories are believed to act as a maintaining factor. A series of ten patients with major depressive disorder and intrusive memories, many of them reporting severe, chronic, or recurrent episodes of depression, were given an average of 8.1 sessions of imagery rescripting as a stand-alone treatment. Hierarchical linear modelling demonstrated large treatment effects that were well maintained at one year follow-up. Seven patients showed reliable improvement, and six patients clinically significant improvement. These gains were achieved entirely by working through patients' visual imagination and without verbal challenging of negative beliefs. Spontaneous changes in beliefs, rumination, and behaviour were nevertheless observed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of factors contributing to late submission of course work

This case study uses log-linear modelling to investigate the interrelationships between factors that may contribute to the late submission of coursework by undergraduate students. A class of 86 computing students are considered. These students were exposed to traditional teaching methods supported by e-learning via a Managed Learning Environment (MLE). The MLE warehouses detailed data about student usage of the various areas of the environment, which can be used to interpret the approach taken to learning. The study investigates the interrelationship between these factors with the information as to whether the student handed in their course work on time or whether they were late. The results from the log-linear modelling technique show that there is an interaction between participating in Discussions within the MLE and the timely submission of course work, indicating that participants are more likely to hand in on time, than those students who do not participate.