A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Underuse of beta-blockers following myocardial infarction: a tale of two cities

Aims: To measure factors associated with underuse of beta-blocker therapy after myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: The Newcastle and Perth collaborating centres of the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA project (to MONItor trends and determinants of Cardiovascular disease) systematically evaluated all patients admitted to hospital in their respective regions with possible MI. A total of 1766 patients in Newcastle and 4503 patients in Perth, discharged from hospital after confirmed MI from 1985 to 1993, were studied, Rates of beta-blocker use before and after hospital discharge were evaluated and correlates of beta-blocker use determined. Results: Beta-blocker use was similar in Newcastle and Perth before MI (21% of patients in each centre). During hospital admission, beta-blocker therapy was initiated nearly twice as frequently in Perth compared with Newcastle (66 vs 36%, respectively) and more patients were discharged from hospital on beta-blockers in Perth (68%) than in Newcastle (45%). The main factors associated with underuse of beta-blockers in multivariate analysis were geographical centre (odds ratio (OR) for Newcastle compared with Perth 0.3 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.3-0.3), a history of previous MI (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7), admission to hospital in earlier years (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.4 for years 1985-87 compared with years 1991-93), diabetes (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.8) and the concomitant use of diuretics (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6) and calcium antagonists (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.8). Conclusions: Underuse of beta-blockers after MI was strongly related to hospital prescribing patterns and not to community use of beta-blockers. Underuse occurred in patients with diabetes and in patients with left ventricular dysfunction, patients who stand to benefit most from beta-blocker use following MI.

Overcrowding and Infant Mortality: A Tale of Two Cities

Using detailed historical data for the cities of Glasgow and Edinhurgh, evidence is found in support of the hypothesis that overcrowding is a significant cause of infant mortality. We distinguish between voluntary overcrowding (due to the budgetary choices of poor families) and involuntary overcrowding (due to market failure in the provision of an adequate supply of appropriate housing). We found that, over the fifty year period, 1911-1961, Glasgow's infant mortality rate was significantly higher than that of Edinburgh, despite their close geographical proximity, and that a large part of the difference can he attributed to involuntary overcrowding in the first half of the twentieth century. We argue that this was due to the distinctly different housing policies adopted by the two cities, with important lessons for present day public authorities.

Knowledge cities: a taxonomy for analyzing software and information service clusters

Software and information services (SIS) have become a field of increasing opportunities for international trade due to the worldwide diffusion of a combination of technological and organizational innovations. In several regions, the software industry is organized in clusters, usually referred to as "knowledge cities" because of the growing importance of knowledge-intensive services in their economy. This paper has two primary objectives. First, it raises three major questions related to the attractiveness of different cities in Argentina and Brazil for hosting software companies and to their impact on local development. Second, a new taxonomy is proposed for grouping clusters according to their dominant business segment, ownership pattern and scope of operations. The purpose of this taxonomy is to encourage further studies and provide an exploratory analytical tool for analyzing software clusters.

Report about the scope and distribution of large urban distressed areas in European cities

LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission.