Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Starburst in the ultraluminous galaxy Arp 220: Constraints from observations of radio recombination lines and continuum

We present observations of radio recombination lines (RRL) from the starburst galaxy Arp 220 at 8.1 GHz (H92 alpha) and 1.4 GHz (H167 alpha and H165 alpha) and at 84 GHz (H42 alpha), 96 GHz (H40 alpha) and 207 GHz (H31 alpha) using the Very Large Array and the IRAM 30 m telescope, respectively. RRLs were detected at all the frequencies except 1.4 GHz, where a sensitive upper limit was obtained. We also present continuum flux measurements at these frequencies as well as at 327 MHz made with the VLA. The continuum spectrum, which has a spectral index alpha similar to -0.6 (S-nu proportional to nu(alpha)) between 5 and 10 GHz, shows a break near 1.5 GHz, a prominent turnover below 500 MHz, and a flatter spectral index above 50 GHz. We show that a model with three components of ionized gas with different densities and area covering factors can consistently explain both RRL and continuum data. The total mass of ionized gas in the three components is 3.2 x 10(7) M., requiring 3 x 10(5) O5 stars with a total Lyman continuum production rate N-Lyc similar to 1.3 x 10(55) photons s(-1). The ratio of the expected to observed Br alpha and Br gamma fluxes implies a dust extinction A(V) similar to 45 mag. The derived Lyman continuum photon production rate implies a continuous star formation rate (SFR) averaged over the lifetime of OB stars of similar to 240 M yr(-1). The Lyman continuum photon Production rate of similar to 3% associated with the high-density H II regions implies a similar SFR at recent epochs (t < 10(5) yr). An alternative model of high-density gas, which cannot be excluded on the basis of the available data, predicts 10 times higher SFR at recent epochs. If confirmed, this model implies that star formation in Arp 220 consists of multiple starbursts of very high SFR (few times 10(3) M. yr(-1)) and short duration (similar to 10(5) yr). The similarity of IR excess, L-IR/L-Ly alpha similar to 24, in Arp 220 to values observed in starburst galaxies shows that most of the high luminosity of Arp 220 is due to the ongoing starburst rather than to a hidden active galactic nucleus (AGN). A comparison of the IR excesses in Arp 220, the Galaxy, and M33 indicates that the starburst in Arp 220 has an initial mass function that is similar to that in normal galaxies and has a duration longer than 107 yr. If there was no infall of gas during this period, then the star formation efficiency (SFE) in Arp 220 is similar to 50%. The high SFR and SFE in Arp 220 is consistent with their known dependences on mass and density of gas in star-forming regions of normal galaxies.

The Formation, Numbers And Radio Output Of Giant Radio Galaxies

The numbers and mean radio luminosities of giant radio galaxies (GRGs) have been calculated for redshifts up to z = 0.6, assuming a sensitivity limit of 1 Jy at 1 GHz for the observations. The estimates are obtained with a model for the beam propagation, first through the hot gaseaous halo around the parent galaxy, and thereafter, through the even hotter but less dense intergalactic medium. The model is able to accurately reproduce the observed numbers and mean radio luminosities of GRGs at redshifts of less than 0.1, and it predicts that a somewhat larger number of GRGs should be found at redshifts of greater than 0.1.

Effect of a QSO on the interstellar medium of its host galaxy

We consider the hydrodynamic evolution of gas in the interstellar medium of the host galaxy of a quasar due to Compton heating by the QSO radiation. We show that a Lagrangean formulation of the problem is necessary. It is found that the "hydrodynamic time scale" becomes important compared to the Compton heating time scale. We also relax the "single fluid" approximation by considering the existence of clouds and taking into account the mass loss from stars. The results predict star burst activity, and thus we explain the blue colors of the active galaxies.

H I deficiency in cluster spiral galaxies - Dependence on galaxy size

From the available H I data on spiral galaxies in three rich Abell clusters and the Virgo Cluster, it is shown that galaxies with medium to large optical sizes tend to be more severely deficient in atomic hydrogen than the small galaxies. This is so both in terms of the fractional number of galaxies that are deficient and the amount of gas lost by a galaxy. The fraction of H I-deficient galaxies increases with size over most of the size range, saturating or dropping only for the largest galaxies. A comparative study is made of various currently accepted gas removal mechanisms, namely those which are a result of galaxy-intracluster medium interactions, e.g., ram pressure stripping, as well as those due to galaxy-galaxy interactions, i.e., collisions and tidal interactions. It is shown that, with the exception of tidal interactions, all of these mechanisms would produce a size dependence in H I deficiency that is the opposite of that observed. That is, the gas in the largest galaxies would be the least affected by these mechanisms. However, if there is significant mass segregation, these processes may give the trends observed in the size dependence of H I deficiency.

Time-Dependent Dynamics of a Planar Galaxy Model

Time-dependent models of collisionless stellar systems with harmonic potentials allowing for an essentially exact analytic description have recently been described. These include oscillating spheres and spheroids. This paper extends the analysis to time-dependent elliptic discs. Although restricted to two space dimensions, the systems are richer in that their parameters form a 10-dimensional phase space (in contrast to six for the earlier models). Apart from total energy and angular momentum, two additional conserved quantities emerge naturally. These can be chosen as the areas of extremal sections of the ellipsoidal region of phase space occupied by the system (their product gives the conserved volume). The present paper describes the construction of these models. An application to a tidal encounter is given which allows one to go beyond the impulse approximation and demonstrates the effects of rotation of the perturbed system on energy and angular-momentum transfer. The angular-momentum transfer is shown to scale inversely as the cube of the encounter velocity for an initial configuration of the perturbed galaxy with zero quadrupole moment.

Compressive tidal heating of a disk galaxy in a rich cluster

The restricted three-body method is used to model the effect of the mean tidal field of a cluster of galaxies on the internal dynamics of a disk galaxy falling into the cluster for the first time. In the model adopted the galaxy experiences a tidal field that is compressive within the core of the cluster. The planar random velocities of all components in the disk increase after the galaxy passes through the core of the cluster. The low-velocity dispersion gas clouds experience a relatively larger increase in random velocity than the hotter stellar components. The increase in planar velocities results in a strong anisotropy between the planar and vertical velocity dispersions. It is argued that this will make the disk unstable to the 'fire-hose instability' which leads to bending modes in the disk and which will thicken the disk slightly. The mean tidal fields in rich clusters were probably stronger during the epoch of cluster formation and relaxation than they are in present-day relaxed clusters.

Lopsidedness in WHISP galaxies I. Rotation curves and kinematic lopsidedness

The frequently observed lopsidedness of the distribution of stars and gas in disc galaxies is still considered as a major problem in galaxy dynamics. It is even discussed as an imprint of the formation history of discs and the evolution of baryons in dark matter haloes. Here, we analyse a selected sample of 70 galaxies from the Westerbork Hi Survey of Spiral and Irregular Galaxies. The Hi data allow us to follow the morphology and the kinematics out to very large radii. In the present paper, we present the rotation curves and study the kinematic asymmetry. We extract the rotation curves of the receding and approaching sides separately and show that the kinematic behaviour of disc galaxies can be classified into five different types: symmetric velocity fields where the rotation curves of the receding and approaching sides are almost identical; global distortions where the rotation velocities of the receding and approaching sides have an offset that is constant with radius; local distortions leading to large deviations in the inner and negligible deviations in the outer parts (and vice versa); and distortions that divide the galaxies into two kinematic systems that are visible in terms of the different behaviour of the rotation curves of the receding and approaching sides, which leads to a crossing and a change in side. The kinematic lopsidedness is measured from the maximum rotation velocities, averaged over the plateau of the rotation curves. This gives a good estimate of the global lopsidedness in the outer parts of the sample galaxies. We find that the mean value of the perturbation parameter denoting the lopsided potential as obtained from the kinematic data is 0.056. Altogether, 36% of the sample galaxies are globally lopsided, which can be interpreted as the disc responding to a halo that was distorted by a tidal encounter. In Paper II, we study the morphological lopsidedness of the same sample of galaxies.

Asymmetric Warps in Disk Galaxies: Dependence on Dark Matter Halo

Recent observations have shown that most of the warps in the disk galaxies are asymmetric. However there exists no generic mechanism to generate these asymmetries in warps. We have shown that a rich variety of possible asymmetries in the z-distribution of the spiral galaxies can naturally arise due to a dynamical wave interference between the first two bending modes i.e. bowl-shaped mode(m=0) and S-shaped warping mode(m = 1) in the galactic disk embedded in a dark matter halo. We show that the asymmetric warps are more pronounced when the dark matter content within the optical disk is lower as in early-type galaxies.

Theoretical determination of HI vertical scale heights in the dwarf galaxies DDO 154, Ho II, IC 2574 and NGC 2366

In this paper, we model dwarf galaxies as a two-component system of gravitationally coupled stars and atomic hydrogen gas in the external force field of a pseudo-isothermal dark matter halo, and numerically obtain the radial distribution of HI vertical scale heights. This is done for a group of four dwarf galaxies (DDO 154, Ho II, IC 2574 and NGC 2366) for which most necessary input parameters are available from observations. The formulation of the equations takes into account the rising rotation curves generally observed in dwarf galaxies. The inclusion of self-gravity of the gas into the model at par with that of the stars results in scale heights that are smaller than what was obtained by previous authors. This is important as the gas scale height is often used for deriving other physical quantities. The inclusion of gas self-gravity is particularly relevant in the case of dwarf galaxies where the gas cannot be considered a minor perturbation to the mass distribution of the stars. We find that three out of four galaxies studied show a flaring of their HI discs with increasing radius, by a factor of a few within several disc scale lengths. The fourth galaxy has a thick HI disc throughout. This flaring arises as a result of the gas velocity dispersion remaining constant or decreasing only slightly while the disc mass distribution declines exponentially as a function of radius.

Isotropic heating of galaxy cluster cores via rapidly reorienting active galactic nucleus jets

Active galactic nucleus (AGN) jets carry more than sufficient energy to stave off catastrophic cooling of the intracluster medium (ICM) in the cores of cool-core clusters. However, in order to prevent catastrophic cooling, the ICM must be heated in a near-isotropic fashion and narrow bipolar jets with P-jet = 10(44-45) erg s(-1), typical of radio AGNs at cluster centers, are inefficient in heating the gas in the transverse direction to the jets. We argue that due to existent conditions in cluster cores, the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) will, in addition to accreting gas via radiatively inefficient flows, experience short stochastic episodes of enhanced accretion via thin disks. In general, the orientation of these accretion disks will be misaligned with the spin axis of the black holes (BHs) and the ensuing torques will cause the BH's spin axis (and therefore the jet axis) to slew and rapidly change direction. This model not only explains recent observations showing successive generations of jet-lobes-bubbles in individual cool-core clusters that are offset from each other in the angular direction with respect to the cluster center, but also shows that AGN jets can heat the cluster core nearly isotropically on the gas cooling timescale. Our model does require that the SMBHs at the centers of cool-core clusters be spinning relatively slowly. Torques from individual misaligned disks are ineffective at tilting rapidly spinning BHs by more than a few degrees. Additionally, since SMBHs that host thin accretion disks will manifest as quasars, we predict that roughly 1-2 rich clusters within z < 0.5 should have quasars at their centers.