Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

PODOCARPUS SP.PL. REFUGIA IN BRAZIL`S ATLANTIC FOREST: ANALYSING THE PAST TO IMPROVE FUTURE PROTECTION

The Atlantic rainforest has the second highest biodiversity in Brazil. It has been shrinking rapidly in area as a result of intensive deforestation, and only 7% of the original cover now remains, as isolated patches or in ecological reserves. In order to obtain new information on the distribution of the Atlantic rainforest during the Quaternary, we examined herbarium data to locate relevant populations and extracted DNA from fresh leaves from 26 populations. The present-day distribution of endemic Podocarpus populations shows that they are widely dispersed across eastern Brazil, and that the expansion of Podocarpus recorded in single Amazonian pollen records may have originated from either western or eastern populations. Genetic analysis enabled us to determine the boundaries of their regional expansion: northern and central populations of P. sellowii appeared between 5 degrees and 15 degrees S some 16,000 years ago; populations of P lambertii or sellowii have appeared between 15 degrees and 23 degrees S at different times since the last glaciation at least; and P lambertii appeared between 23 degrees and 30 degrees S during the recent expansion of Araucaria forests. The combination of botanical, pollen, and molecular analyses proved to be a rapid means of inferring distribution boundaries for sparse populations and their regional evolution within tropical ecosystems. Today the rainforest refugia we identified have become hotspots that are crucial to the survival of the Atlantic forest under unfavourable climatic conditions and, as such, offer the only possible opportunity for this type of forest to expand in the event of future climate change.

Compacts for Equality: Towards a Sustainable Future

The document which ECLAC presents on this occasion explores further the theme of equality addressed at the two previous sessions of the Commission, in Time for Equality: Closing Gaps, Opening Trails (2010, Brasilia), and Structural Change for Equality: An Integrated Approach to Development (2012, San Salvador). The document prepared for the thirty-fifth session, entitled Compacts for Equality: Towards a Sustainable Future, discusses the two major challenges to development in Latin America and the Caribbean today: to achieve greater equality and to make development sustainable for future generations. The various chapters examine the social, economic, environmental and natural resource governance constraints on sustainability, as well as the challenges associated with strategic development options. They also further explore the equality approach developed by ECLAC at previous sessions, treating the world of work as a key arena. Consumption is analysed as it relates to the economic, social and environmental spheres, highlighting its potential to increase well-being as well as its problematic externalities in terms of environmental sustainability, the fiscal covenant and the production structure, among others. The dynamics existing between production structures and institutions are explored, drawing attention to ways in which the efficient organization of institutions can help to maximize contributions to development. The document concludes with a set of medium- and long-term policy proposals that need to be enshrined in social covenants and policy instruments for implementing, in a democratic context, the policies and institutional reforms that the Latin American and Caribbean countries need to resolve the dilemmas they face at the current crossroads.

The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals: An opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by the 193 Member States of the United Nations at the General Assembly in September 2015, outlines a transformative vision for economic, social and environmental development and will guide the work of the Organization towards this vision for the next 15 years. This new road map presents a historic opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean, since it addresses some of the region’s most urgent priorities, such as reducing inequality in all its dimensions, promoting inclusive economic growth with decent work for all, creating sustainable cities and addressing climate change. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) associated with the Agenda help the region’s countries to gauge the starting point from which they set out towards this new, collective vision of sustainable development set forth in the 2030 Agenda and to analyse and craft the means of its implementation. The SDGs also represent a planning tool for the countries at the national and local levels. With their long-term approach, they offer support for each country on its path towards sustained, inclusive and environmentally friendly development, through the formulation of public policies and budget, monitoring and evaluation instruments. The 2030 Agenda is a civilizing agenda that places dignity and equality at the centre. At once far-sighted and ambitious, its implementation will require the engagement of all sectors of society and of the State. Accordingly, the representatives of governments, civil society, academic institutions and the private sector are invited to take ownership of this ambitious agenda, to discuss and embrace it as a tool for the creation of inclusive, fair societies that serve the citizens of today as well as future generations.

Feasibility studies for accessing nucleon structure observables with the PANDA experiment at the future FAIR facility

The availability of a high-intensity antiproton beam with momentum up to 15,GeV/c at the future FAIR will open a unique opportunity to investigate wide areas of nuclear physics with the $overline{P}$ANDA (anti{$overline{P}$}roton ANnihilations at DArmstadt) detector. Part of these investigations concern the Electromagnetic Form Factors of the proton in the time-like region and the study of the Transition Distribution Amplitudes, for which feasibility studies have been performed in this Thesis. rnMoreover, simulations to study the efficiency and the energy resolution of the backward endcap of the electromagnetic calorimeter of $overline{P}$ANDA are presented. This detector is crucial especially for the reconstruction of processes like $bar pprightarrow e^+ e^- pi^0$, investigated in this work. Different arrangements of dead material were studied. The results show that both, the efficiency and the energy resolution of the backward endcap of the electromagnetic calorimeter fullfill the requirements for the detection of backward particles, and that this detector is necessary for the reconstruction of the channels of interest. rnrnThe study of the annihilation channel $bar pprightarrow e^+ e^-$ will improve the knowledge of the Electromagnetic Form Factors in the time-like region, and will help to understand their connection with the Electromagnetic Form Factors in the space-like region. In this Thesis the feasibility of a measurement of the $bar pprightarrow e^+ e^-$ cross section with $overline{P}$ANDA is studied using Monte-Carlo simulations. The major background channel $bar pprightarrow pi^+ pi^-$ is taken into account. The results show a $10^9$ background suppression factor, which assure a sufficiently clean signal with less than 0.1% background contamination. The signal can be measured with an efficiency greater than 30% up to $s=14$,(GeV/c)$^2$. The Electromagnetic Form Factors are extracted from the reconstructed signal and corrected angular distribution. Above this $s$ limit, the low cross section will not allow the direct extraction of the Electromagnetic Form Factors. However, the total cross section can still be measured and an extraction of the Electromagnetic Form Factors is possible considering certain assumptions on the ratio between the electric and magnetic contributions.rnrnThe Transition Distribution Amplitudes are new non-perturbative objects describing the transition between a baryon and a meson. They are accessible in hard exclusive processes like $bar pprightarrow e^+ e^- pi^0$. The study of this process with $overline{P}$ANDA will test the Transition Distribution Amplitudes approach. This work includes a feasibility study for measuring this channel with $overline{P}$ANDA. The main background reaction is here $bar pprightarrow pi^+ pi^- pi^0$. A background suppression factor of $10^8$ has been achieved while keeping a signal efficiency above 20%.rnrnrnPart of this work has been published in the European Physics Journal A 44, 373-384 (2010).rn

Tissue fusion, a new opportunity for sutureless bypass surgery

Microsurgical suturing is the standard for cerebral bypass surgery, a technique where temporary occlusion is usually necessary. Non-occlusive techniques such as excimer laser-assisted non-occlusive anastomosis (ELANA) have certainly widened the spectrum of treatment of complex cerebrovascular situations, such as giant cerebral aneurysms, that were otherwise non-treatable. Nevertheless, the reduction of surgical risks while widening the spectrum of indications, such as a prophylactic cerebral bypass, is still a main aim, that we would like to pursue with our sutureless tissue fusion research. The primary concern in sutureless tissue fusion- and especially in tissue fusion of cerebral vessels- is the lack of reproducibility, often caused by variations in the thermal damage of the vessel. This has prevented this novel fusion technique from being applicable in daily surgical use. In this overview, we present three ways to further improve the laser tissue soldering technique.In the first section entitled "Laser Tissue Soldering Using a Biodegradable Polymer," a porous polymer scaffold doped with albumin (BSA) and indocyanine green (ICG) is presented, leading to strong and reproducible tensile strengths in tissue soldering. Histologies and future developments are discussed.In the section "Numerical Simulation for Improvement of Laser Tissue Soldering," a powerful theoretical simulation model is used to calculate temperature distribution during soldering. The goal of this research is to have a tool in hand that allows us to determine laser irradiation parameters that guarantee strong vessel fusion without thermally damaging the inner structures such as the intima and endothelium.In a third section, "Nanoparticles in Laser Tissue Soldering," we demonstrate that nanoparticles can be used to produce a stable and well-defined spatial absorption profile in the scaffold, which is an important step towards increasing the reproducibility. The risks of implanting nanoparticles into a biodegradable scaffold are discussed.Step by step, these developments in sutureless tissue fusion have improved the tensile strength and the reproducibility, and are constantly evolving towards a clinically applicable anastomosis technique.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Stent-retriever thrombectomy: impact on the future of interventional stroke treatment

Endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke has evolved in the past years. The current development of stent-retriever thrombectomy is a landmark in the clinical treatment and study results of acute ischemic stroke. This review summarizes the recent study results, elucidates the shortcomings of endovascular stroke treatment, and takes the opportunity for an outlook on the role of stroke interventions in the future.

Future pandemic influenza control (FPIC) related strategic management plan based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza review of health policy decisions, their practice and implications

This cross-sectional study is based on the qualitative and quantitative research design to review health policy decisions, their practice and implications during 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States and globally. The “Future Pandemic Influenza Control (FPIC) related Strategic Management Plan” was developed based on the incorporation of the “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (2005)” for the United States from the U.S. Homeland Security Council and “The Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan for the Health Sector (2006)” from the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Committee for use by the public health agencies in the United States as well as globally. The “global influenza experts’ survey” was primarily designed and administered via email through the “Survey Monkey” system to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic experts as the study respondents. The effectiveness of this plan was confirmed and the approach of the study questionnaire was validated to be convenient and the excellent quality of the questions provided an efficient opportunity to the study respondents to evaluate the effectiveness of predefined strategies/interventions for future pandemic influenza control.^ The quantitative analysis of the responses to the Likert-scale based questions in the survey about predefined strategies/interventions, addressing five strategic issues to control future pandemic influenza. The effectiveness of strategies defined as pertinent interventions in this plan was evaluated by targeting five strategic issues regarding pandemic influenza control. For the first strategic issue pertaining influenza prevention and pre pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for strategy (1a) 87.5%, strategy (1b) 91.7% and strategy (1c) 83.3%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (1); (1b (High Priority) > 1a (Medium Priority) > 1c (Low Priority) based on the available resources of the developing and developed countries. For the second Strategic Issue encompassing the preparedness and communication regarding pandemic influenza control; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (2a) 95.6%, strategy (2b) 82.6%, strategy (2c) 91.3% and Strategy (2d) 87.0%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (2); (2a (highest priority) > 2c (high priority) >2d (medium priority) > 2b (low priority). For the third strategic issue encompassing the surveillance and detection of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (3a) 90.9% and strategy (3b) 77.3%. The assessment of the priority level for theses strategies to address the strategic Issue No. (3) (3a (high priority) > 3b (medium/low priority). For the fourth strategic issue pertaining the response and containment of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (4a) 63.6%, strategy (4b) 81.8%, strategy (4c) 86.3%, and strategy (4d) 86.4%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (4); (4d (highest priority) > 4c (high priority) > 4b (medium priority) > 4a (low priority). The fifth strategic issue about recovery from influenza and post pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (5a) 68.2%, strategy (5b) 36.3% and strategy (5c) 40.9%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (5); (5a (high priority) > 5c (medium priority) > 5b (low priority).^ The qualitative analysis of responses to the open-ended questions in the study questionnaire was performed by means of thematic content analysis. The following recurrent or common “themes” were determined for the future implementation of various predefined strategies to address five strategic issues from the “FPIC related Strategic Management Plan” to control future influenza pandemics. (1) Pre Pandemic Influenza Prevention, (2) Seasonal Influenza Control, (3) Cost Effectiveness of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI), (4) Raising Global Public Awareness, (5) Global Influenza Vaccination Campaigns, (6)Priority for High Risk Population, (7) Prompt Accessibility and Distribution of Influenza Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs, (8) The Vital Role of Private Sector, (9) School Based Influenza Containment, (10) Efficient Global Risk Communication, (11) Global Research Collaboration, (12) The Critical Role of Global Public Health Organizations, (13) Global Syndromic Surveillance and Surge Capacity and (14) Post Pandemic Recovery and Lessons Learned. The future implementation of these strategies with confirmed effectiveness to primarily “reduce the overall response time’ in the process of ‘early detection’, ‘strategies (interventions) formulation’ and their ‘implementation’ to eventually ensure the following health outcomes: (a) reduced influenza transmission, (b) prompt and effective influenza treatment and control, (c) reduced influenza related morbidity and mortality.^

The Arab Spring: where was the EU, and what is its future in the region? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 13 No. 4, February 2013

From the Introduction. In 2010 the martyring of Mohamed Bouazizi began a ripple of civil uprisings across the Middle East, and would lead to a wave of revolutions that the media would dub the Arab Spring. From North Africa to the Gulf Region, these civil uprisings made major headlines but found little intervention on behalf of world superpowers such as the United States or the European Union. Acting as more of an observer than as an active participant in these revolutions, it would seem that the European Union played a small role in preventing civil unrest, or in aiding in the policing of these oppressive governments. By example of the passive position held by Europe during these revolutions, the EU appears to be ill equipped to handle security issues such as the massive revolutionary chain witnessed across the Mediterranean. Now, however, they have a new opportunity to be involved in a post- Arab Spring Mediterranean. This paper seeks to address some reasons behind the Arab Spring, describe the institutional framework previously and currently in place, as well as to analyze the progress of Europe’s relationship with the Mediterranean by analyzing the EU’s past and current role in the Mediterranean. It will also look at critiques of the EU’s role in the Arab Spring, as well as the opportunities to be taken in the Mediterranean region.

Any changes? The future agenda of Sweden's security policy. OSW Commentary No. 126, 28.01.2014

Sweden’s annual security and defence conference, which this year focused on the future of the country’s security policy, was held in Sälen on 12-14 January. It was attended by almost all the leaders of Sweden’s ruling and opposition parties. The discussions have revealed whether and how the mindset of the Swedish elite has changed following the heated debates on defence issues in 2013. The opposition parties (Social Democrats, the Green Party, and the Left Party), which are likely to form a coalition government after the election to the Swedish parliament in September 2014, were given the opportunity to present their own priorities. The discussions have brought to the surface conflicting perceptions within the political elite concerning the threats and challenges to Swedish security, and divergent positions on the future direction of the country’s security and defence policy. It is highly likely that, due to a coalition compromise, the current course of Sweden’s security policy (namely, a policy of non-alignment along with close co-operation with NATO) will be maintained following the parliamentary election, albeit with new “leftist” influences (a greater involvement in the United Nations). Big changes that could lead to a significant strengthening of Sweden’s defence capabilities, or a decision on NATO membership, are not likely. Paradoxically, polls suggest that in the long run a more radical change in Stockholm’s security policy may be shaped by a gradual, bottom-up evolution of public opinion on the issue.

The EU-Turkey Customs Union: A model for Future Euro-Med Integration. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 9/March 2012

This paper studying the 1995 EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) reveals that the CU has been a major instrument of integration of the Turkish economy into the EU and global markets, offering powerful tools to reform the Turkish economy. Turkish producers of industrial goods are protected by tariffs from external competition to exactly the same extent as EU producers, and they face competition from duty-free imports of industrial goods from world-class pan-European firms. In return, Turkish industrial producers have duty-free market access to the European Economic Area, which was recently extended to certain Mediterranean countries. Trade liberalisation achieved through the CU has thus successfully moved the Turkish economy from a government-controlled regime to a market-based one, and Turkish producers of industrial goods have performed remarkably well. The paper further shows that market access conditions for Turkish producers are determined, in addition to tariffs, by standards, conformity assessment procedures, competition policy, industrial property rights and contingent protectionism measures. The CU also offered Turkey the opportunity to establish new institutions, and modernise and upgrade rules and disciplines required for the elimination of technical barriers to trade, and for the implementation of the EU’s competition, industrial property rights, and contingent protectionism policies.

What Future for the Eurozone? Combining Discipline, Solidarity and Institutional Reforms. European Policy Brief No. 27, March 2014

This Policy Brief discusses the challenges that await policymakers in reforming the EMU. A balance between discipline and solidarity will have to be found, while institutional reforms should improve the eurozone’s legitimacy and efficiency. The key decisions on EMU reforms will have to be made during the 2014-2019 parliamentary term, as the window of opportunity for major reforms is likely to be closed afterwards.

Social differentiation of risk: perceptions of the future in drought-prone Central Niger

A snapshot of two Tuareg-dominated 'communes rurales' in the pastoral-agricultural transition zones of Maradi and Tahoua regions, Central Niger, shows that, despite the openly shared 'inevitable natural hazard' drought discourse, risk-taking action in response to drought-related dangers is sharply polarized according to social position. On the one hand the dominant Tuareg minority perceive drought not only as danger for their herds but also as opportunity to increase their political following through the channelling of drought relief benefits to their supporters. On the other hand, the majority of commune households, living on the brink of economic viability, cultivate social links with the dominant families in order to secure access to water, land and humanitarian aid; and household members are forced into more and more frequent and distant out-migration. Certain leaders, well-informed about national land policy and practice, focus their efforts for a better future on the consolidation of community land rights through the promotion of certain sedentarization and land privatization initiatives; however the resulting increased land pressure in key locations may unwittingly expose inhabitants to even worse drought-linked crises in the future. Bibliogr., notes, sum. in English and French