Variational calculation of vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties

A variational approach for reliably calculating vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties of molecules with large electrical and/or mechanical anharmonicity is introduced. This approach utilizes a self-consistent solution of the vibrational Schrödinger equation for the complete field-dependent potential-energy surface and, then, adds higher-level vibrational correlation corrections as desired. An initial application is made to static properties for three molecules of widely varying anharmonicity using the lowest-level vibrational correlation treatment (i.e., vibrational Møller-Plesset perturbation theory). Our results indicate when the conventional Bishop-Kirtman perturbation method can be expected to break down and when high-level vibrational correlation methods are likely to be required. Future improvements and extensions are discussed

An Estimate of Nest Loss in Canada Due to Industrial Forestry Operations

Annual loss of nests by industrial (nonwoodlot) forest harvesting in Canada was estimated using two avian point-count data sources: (1) the Boreal Avian Monitoring Project (BAM) dataset for provinces operating in this biome and (2) available data summarized for the major (nonboreal) forest regions of British Columbia. Accounting for uncertainty in the proportion of harvest occurring during the breeding season and in avian nesting densities, our estimate ranges from 616 thousand to 2.09 million nests. Estimates of the impact on numbers of individuals recruited into the adult breeding population were made based on the application of survivorship estimates at various stages of the life cycle. Future improvements to this estimate are expected as better and more extensive avian breeding pair density estimates become available and as provincial forestry statistics become more refined, spatially and temporally. The effect of incidental take due to forestry is not uniform and is disproportionately centered in the southern boreal. Those species whose ranges occur primarily in these regions are most at risk for industrial forestry in general and for incidental take in particular. Refinements to the nest loss estimate for industrial forestry in Canada will be achieved primarily through the provision of more accurate estimates of the area of forest harvested annually during the breeding season stratified by forest type and Bird Conservation Region (BCR). A better understanding of survivorship among life-history stages for forest birds would also allow for better modeling of the effect of nest loss on adult recruitment. Finally, models are needed to project legacy effects of forest harvesting on avian populations that take into account forest succession and accompanying cumulative effects of landscape change.

Global retrieval of ATSR cloud parameters and evaluation (GRAPE): dataset assessment

The Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) provide a long time-series of measurements suitable for the retrieval of cloud properties. This work evaluates the freely-available Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) dataset (version 3) created from the ATSR-2 (1995�2003) and Advanced ATSR (AATSR; 2002 onwards) records. Users are recommended to consider only retrievals flagged as high-quality, where there is a good consistency between the measurements and the retrieved state (corresponding to about 60% of converged retrievals over sea, and more than 80% over land). Cloud properties are found to be generally free of any significant spurious trends relating to satellite zenith angle. Estimates of the random error on retrieved cloud properties are suggested to be generally appropriate for optically-thick clouds, and up to a factor of two too small for optically-thin cases. The correspondence between ATSR-2 and AATSR cloud properties is high, but a relative calibration difference between the sensors of order 5�10% at 660 nm and 870 nm limits the potential of the current version of the dataset for trend analysis. As ATSR-2 is thought to have the better absolute calibration, the discussion focusses on this portion of the record. Cloud-top heights from GRAPE compare well to ground-based data at four sites, particularly for shallow clouds. Clouds forming in boundary-layer inversions are typically around 1 km too high in GRAPE due to poorly-resolved inversions in the modelled temperature profiles used. Global cloud fields are compared to satellite products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements, and a climatology of liquid water content derived from satellite microwave radiometers. In all cases the main reasons for differences are linked to differing sensitivity to, and treatment of, multi-layer cloud systems. The correlation coefficient between GRAPE and the two MODIS products considered is generally high (greater than 0.7 for most cloud properties), except for liquid and ice cloud effective radius, which also show biases between the datasets. For liquid clouds, part of the difference is linked to choice of wavelengths used in the retrieval. Total cloud cover is slightly lower in GRAPE (0.64) than the CALIOP dataset (0.66). GRAPE underestimates liquid cloud water path relative to microwave radiometers by up to 100 g m�2 near the Equator and overestimates by around 50 g m�2 in the storm tracks. Finally, potential future improvements to the algorithm are outlined.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

Snakebite and its socio-economic impact on the rural population of Tamil Nadu, India

BACKGROUND: Snakebite represents a significant health issue worldwide, affecting several million people each year with as many as 95,000 deaths. India is considered to be the country most affected, but much remains unknown about snakebite incidence in this country, its socio-economic impact and how snakebite management could be improved. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a study within rural villages in Tamil Nadu, India, which combines a household survey (28,494 people) of snakebite incidence with a more detailed survey of victims in order to understand the health and socio-economic effects of the bite, the treatments obtained and their views about future improvements. Our survey suggests that snakebite incidence is higher than previously reported. 3.9% of those surveyed had suffered from snakebite and the number of deaths corresponds to 0.45% of the population. The socio-economic impact of this is very considerable in terms of the treatment costs and the long-term effects on the health and ability of survivors to work. To reduce this, the victims recommended improvements to the accessibility and affordability of antivenom treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Snakebite has a considerable and disproportionate impact on rural populations, particularly in South Asia. This study provides an incentive for researchers and the public to work together to reduce the incidence and improve the outcomes for snake bite victims and their families.

Understanding and representing atmospheric convection across scales: recommendations from the meeting held at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK, 28–30 January 2013

As weather and climate models move toward higher resolution, there is growing excitement about potential future improvements in the understanding and prediction of atmospheric convection and its interaction with larger-scale phenomena. A meeting in January 2013 in Dartington, Devon was convened to address the best way to maximise these improvements, specifically in a UK context but with international relevance. Specific recommendations included increased convective-scale observations, high-resolution virtual laboratories, and a system of parameterization test beds with a range of complexities. The main recommendation was to facilitate the development of physically based convective parameterizations that are scale-aware, non-local, non-equilibrium, and stochastic.

The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE B[e] PHENOMENON. IV. MODELING OF IRAS 00470+6429

FS CMa type stars are a recently described group of objects with the B[e] phenomenon which exhibits strong emission-line spectra and strong IR excesses. In this paper, we report the first attempt for a detailed modeling of IRAS 00470+6429, for which we have the best set of observations. Our modeling is based on two key assumptions: the star has a main-sequence luminosity for its spectral type (B2) and the circumstellar (CS) envelope is bimodal, composed of a slowly outflowing disklike wind and a fast polar wind. Both outflows are assumed to be purely radial. We adopt a novel approach to describe the dust formation site in the wind that employs timescale arguments for grain condensation and a self-consistent solution for the dust destruction surface. With the above assumptions we were able to satisfactorily reproduce many observational properties of IRAS 00470+6429, including the Hi line profiles and the overall shape of the spectral energy distribution. Our adopted recipe for dust formation proved successful in reproducing the correct amount of dust formed in the CS envelope. Possible shortcomings of our model, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are discussed.

Rigidities and fiscal space in Latin America: a comparative case study

Includes Bibliography

A model for analysing data portal performance: The biodiversity case

Currently, many museums, botanic gardens and herbariums keep data of biological collections and using computational tools researchers digitalize and provide access to their data using data portals. The replication of databases in portals can be accomplished through the use of protocols and data schema. However, the implementation of this solution demands a large amount of time, concerning both the transfer of fragments of data and processing data within the portal. With the growth of data digitalization in institutions, this scenario tends to be increasingly exacerbated, making it hard to maintain the records updated on the portals. As an original contribution, this research proposes analysing the data replication process to evaluate the performance of portals. The Inter-American Biodiversity Information Network (IABIN) biodiversity data portal of pollinators was used as a study case, which supports both situations: conventional data replication of records of specimen occurrences and interactions between them. With the results of this research, it is possible to simulate a situation before its implementation, thus predicting the performance of replication operations. Additionally, these results may contribute to future improvements to this process, in order to decrease the time required to make the data available in portals. © Rinton Press.

Análise exergética e ecológica de um sistema compacto de cogeração operando com gás de síntese

The aim of this work is to make a qualitatively and ecologically evaluation of a compact cogeneration system that operates with synthesis gas obtained from a gasifier. Using the Eucalyptus Biomass as fuel, that passes through a wood gasifier (Drowndraft type) and supply the internal combustion engine. The compact cogeneration system is composed of two heat exchangers, an energy generator connected to an internal combustion engine and an absorption refrigeration system. The complete system is installed in the laboratory from the Energy Department at the University of Guaratinguetá. By the analysis related to the First and Second Thermodynamic Laws applied in this system, was possible to identify the mass flows in each point, energetic efficiency, irreversibility and exergetic efficiency. The components that have the biggest irreversibilities are the gasifier, followed by the internal combustion engine, which should be focused in future improvements. The system efficiency in energetic basis is 51,84% and in exergetic basis is 22,78%. Using the ecologic efficiency methodology was possible to identify the emissions rates, the pollution indicator associated to the combustion of the synthesis gas in the internal combustion engine. The ecologic efficiency considering the energectic analysis is 91,73%, while considering the exergetic analysis, 83,65%. It is concluded that the use of the synthesis gas in a compact cogeneration system is viable from the technical and ecological point of view, making possible to generate energy for isolated communities and promoting the decentralized electricity generation

Usinabilidade do aço DIN C45 trefilado de alta resistência

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

As revoltas e seu impacto sobre a comunicação pública: o potencial do Observatório Participativo da Juventude

The Participatório: Observatório Participativo da Juventude (Participatory: Observatory on the Youth Participation) is an online platform created in August 2013 as part of the response of the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil to the protests which took Brazilian streets in the middle of that year. This paper analyses the Participatório against the theoretical context brought by studies of digital activism and social movements. We revise relevant theories and present results of an empirical study indicating parameters to assess whether the apparent goals of the platform would have been reached. The data suggest that the initiative could achieve its purposes as long as it secures the efficacy of future improvements.

Biomechanical modelling of human knee during living activities

The knee joint is a key structure of the human locomotor system. The knowledge of how each single anatomical structure of the knee contributes to determine the physiological function of the knee, is of fundamental importance for the development of new prostheses and novel clinical, surgical, and rehabilitative procedures. In this context, a modelling approach is necessary to estimate the biomechanic function of each anatomical structure during daily living activities. The main aim of this study was to obtain a subject-specific model of the knee joint of a selected healthy subject. In particular, 3D models of the cruciate ligaments and of the tibio-femoral articular contact were proposed and developed using accurate bony geometries and kinematics reliably recorded by means of nuclear magnetic resonance and 3D video-fluoroscopy from the selected subject. Regarding the model of the cruciate ligaments, each ligament was modelled with 25 linear-elastic elements paying particular attention to the anatomical twisting of the fibres. The devised model was as subject-specific as possible. The geometrical parameters were directly estimated from the experimental measurements, whereas the only mechanical parameter of the model, the elastic modulus, had to be considered from the literature because of the invasiveness of the needed measurements. Thus, the developed model was employed for simulations of stability tests and during living activities. Physiologically meaningful results were always obtained. Nevertheless, the lack of subject-specific mechanical characterization induced to design and partially develop a novel experimental method to characterize the mechanics of the human cruciate ligaments in living healthy subjects. Moreover, using the same subject-specific data, the tibio-femoral articular interaction was modelled investigating the location of the contact point during the execution of daily motor tasks and the contact area at the full extension with and without the whole body weight of the subject. Two different approaches were implemented and their efficiency was evaluated. Thus, pros and cons of each approach were discussed in order to suggest future improvements of this methodologies. The final results of this study will contribute to produce useful methodologies for the investigation of the in-vivo function and pathology of the knee joint during the execution of daily living activities. Thus, the developed methodologies will be useful tools for the development of new prostheses, tools and procedures both in research field and in diagnostic, surgical and rehabilitative fields.

Tracking a non-cooperative target using a Doppler radar wireless sensor network

Tracking or target localization is used in a wide range of important tasks from knowing when your flight will arrive to ensuring your mail is received on time. Tracking provides the location of resources enabling solutions to complex logistical problems. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) create new opportunities when applied to tracking, such as more flexible deployment and real-time information. When radar is used as the sensing element in a tracking WSN better results can be obtained; because radar has a comparatively larger range both in distance and angle to other sensors commonly used in WSNs. This allows for less nodes deployed covering larger areas, saving money. In this report I implement a tracking WSN platform similar to what was developed by Lim, Wang, and Terzis. This consists of several sensor nodes each with a radar, a sink node connected to a host PC, and a Matlab© program to fuse sensor data. I have re-implemented their experiment with my WSN platform for tracking a non-cooperative target to verify their results and also run simulations to compare. The results of these tests are discussed and some future improvements are proposed.