A Markov random field model for combining optimum-path forest classifiers using decision graphs and game strategy approach

The research on multiple classifiers systems includes the creation of an ensemble of classifiers and the proper combination of the decisions. In order to combine the decisions given by classifiers, methods related to fixed rules and decision templates are often used. Therefore, the influence and relationship between classifier decisions are often not considered in the combination schemes. In this paper we propose a framework to combine classifiers using a decision graph under a random field model and a game strategy approach to obtain the final decision. The results of combining Optimum-Path Forest (OPF) classifiers using the proposed model are reported, obtaining good performance in experiments using simulated and real data sets. The results encourage the combination of OPF ensembles and the framework to design multiple classifier systems. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of effectiveness of three forest interventionist techniques and proposal of a new and integrated model of forest restoration

We assessed the efficacy of three different forest intervention techniques, in terms of phytosociological and edaphic responses, that were implemented in 2007. In a farm where trees are planted and managed for cellulose production as well as set aside for environmental conservation, four stands were analysed: three of them were considered degraded and were managed using different intervention techniques (transposition, perch, and abandonment), and a fourth stand comprising pristine vegetation was considered a control (reference). Floristic and phytosociology data were collected in three 10 × 10 m plots established in each stand. Also, a total of 48 soil samples were collected to analyse physical and chemical attributes of the topsoil for the different stands. In terms of biodiversity, all the treatments showed significantly lower values when compared to the reference area. However, the soils in all the treatment and reference stands are similar in terms of physical and chemical attributes. Taking into account the specificities of each restoration technique, we verified that the integrated use of a set of management practices, constituted by the (1) abandonment of the area and (2) following a selective killing of the eucalyptus, is the most suitable and promising model to provide fast and effective restoration in terms of environmental indicators.

A model of road effect using line integrals and a test of the performance of two new road indices using the distribution of small mammals in an Atlantic Forest landscape

Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tracing of 15N in a mountain spruce forest: comparison of experimental data with th TRACE model

Despite numerous studies about nitrogen-cycling in forest ecosystems, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the longer-term nitrogen accumulation. To contribute to filling this gap, the dynamic process-based model TRACE, with the ability to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in forest ecosystems was used to study N cycling processes in a mountain spruce forest of the northern edge of the Alps in Switzerland (Alptal, SZ). Most modeling analyses of N-cycling and C-N interactions have very limited ability to determine whether the process interactions are captured correctly. Because the interactions in such a system are complex, it is possible to get the whole-system C and N cycling right in a model without really knowing if the way the model combines fine-scale interactions to derive whole-system cycling is correct. With the possibility to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in ecosystem compartments, TRACE features a very powerful tool for the validation of fine-scale processes captured by the model. We first adapted the model to the new site (Alptal, Switzerland; long-term low-dose N-amendment experiment) by including a new algorithm for preferential water flow and by parameterizing of differences in drivers such as climate, N deposition and initial site conditions. After the calibration of key rates such as NPP and SOM turnover, we simulated patterns of 15N redistribution to compare against 15N field observations from a large-scale labeling experiment. The comparison of 15N field data with the modeled redistribution of the tracer in the soil horizons and vegetation compartments shows that the majority of fine-scale processes are captured satisfactorily. Particularly, the model is able to reproduce the fact that the largest part of the N deposition is immobilized in the soil. The discrepancies of 15N recovery in the LF and M soil horizon can be explained by the application method of the tracer and by the retention of the applied tracer by the well developed moss layer, which is not considered in the model. Discrepancies in the dynamics of foliage and litterfall 15N recovery were also observed and are related to the longevity of the needles in our mountain forest. As a next step, we will use the final Alptal version of the model to calculate the effects of climate change (temperature, CO2) and N deposition on ecosystem C sequestration in this regionally representative Norway spruce (Picea abies) stand.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Spatially-Explicit Testing of a General Aboveground Carbon Density Estimation Model in aWestern Amazonian Forest Using Airborne LiDAR

Mapping aboveground carbon density in tropical forests can support CO2 emissionmonitoring and provide benefits for national resource management. Although LiDAR technology has been shown to be useful for assessing carbon density patterns, the accuracy and generality of calibrations of LiDAR-based aboveground carbon density (ACD) predictions with those obtained from field inventory techniques should be intensified in order to advance tropical forest carbon mapping. Here we present results from the application of a general ACD estimation model applied with small-footprint LiDAR data and field-based estimates of a 50-ha forest plot in Ecuador?s Yasuní National Park. Subplots used for calibration and validation of the general LiDAR equation were selected based on analysis of topographic position and spatial distribution of aboveground carbon stocks. The results showed that stratification of plot locations based on topography can improve the calibration and application of ACD estimation using airborne LiDAR (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 5.81 Mg?C? ha?1, BIAS = 0.59). These results strongly suggest that a general LiDAR-based approach can be used for mapping aboveground carbon stocks in western lowland Amazonian forests.

Forest logging and institutional thresholds in developing south-east Asian economies: A conceptual model

Many developing south-east Asian governments are not capturing full rent from domestic forest logging operations. Such rent losses are commonly related to institutional failures, where informal institutions tend to dominate the control of forestry activity in spite of weakly enforced regulations. Our model is an attempt to add a new dimension to thinking about deforestation. We present a simple conceptual model, based on individual decisions rather than social or forest planning, which includes the human dynamics of participation in informal activity and the relatively slower ecological dynamics of changes in forest resources. We demonstrate how incumbent informal logging operations can be persistent, and that any spending aimed at replacing the informal institutions can only be successful if it pushes institutional settings past some threshold. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulations of forest loss in North America, the Amazon, and combined using the Community Earth System Model

The netcdf files in this archive comprise climate model output from Community Earth System Model for experiments looking at forest loss over Western North America and the Amazon. For further description of the model and configuration for these experiments please see the accompanying manuscript: Synergistic ecoclimate teleconnections from forest loss in different regions structure global ecological responses Elizabeth S. Garcia, Abigail L. S. Swann, Juan C. Villegas, David D. Breshears, Darin J. Law, Scott R. Saleska, and Scott C. Stark published in PLOS ONE, 2016. Contact information in README.txt

An expert model approach to assess the potential of non-wood forest products for forest owners

Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Soil Carbon Turnover Measurement by Physical Fractionation at a Forest-to-Pasture Chronosequence in the Brazilian Amazon

The effect of conversion from forest-to-pasture upon soil carbon stocks has been intensively discussed, but few studies focus on how this land-use change affects carbon (C) distribution across soil fractions in the Amazon basin. We investigated this in the 20 cm depth along a chronosequence of sites from native forest to three successively older pastures. We performed a physicochemical fractionation of bulk soil samples to better understand the mechanisms by which soil C is stabilized and evaluate the contribution of each C fraction to total soil C. Additionally, we used a two-pool model to estimate the mean residence time (MRT) for the slow and active pool C in each fraction. Soil C increased with conversion from forest-to-pasture in the particulate organic matter (> 250 mu m), microaggregate (53-250 mu m), and d-clay (< 2 mu m) fractions. The microaggregate comprised the highest soil C content after the conversion from forest-to-pasture. The C content of the d-silt fraction decreased with time since conversion to pasture. Forest-derived C remained in all fractions with the highest concentration in the finest fractions, with the largest proportion of forest-derived soil C associated with clay minerals. Results from this work indicate that microaggregate formation is sensitive to changes in management and might serve as an indicator for management-induced soil carbon changes, and the soil C changes in the fractions are dependent on soil texture.

Coexistence of forest and savanna in an Amazonian area from a geological perspective

Question: How can the coexistence of savanna and forest in Amazonian areas with relatively uniform climates be explained? Location: Eastern Marajo Island, northeast Amazonia, Brazil. Methods: The study integrated floristic analysis, terrain morphology, sedimentology and delta(13)C of soil organic matter. Floristic analysis involved rapid ecological assessment of 33 sites, determination of occurrence, specific richness, hierarchical distribution and matrix of floristic similarity between paired vegetation types. Terrain characterization was based on analysis of Landsat images using 4(R), 5(G) and 7(B) composition and digital elevation model (DEM). Sedimentology involved field descriptions of surface and core sediments. Finally, radiocarbon dating and analysis of delta(13)C of soil profile organic matter and natural ecotone forest-savanna was undertaken. Results: Slight tectonic subsidence in eastern Marajo Island favours seasonal flooding, making it unsuitable for forest growth. However, this area displays slightly convex-up, sinuous morphologies related to paleochannels, covered by forest. Terra-firme lowland forests are expanding from west to east, preferentially occupying paleochannels and replacing savanna. Slack, running water during channel abandonment leads to disappearance of varzea/gallery forest at channel margins. Long-abandoned channels sustain continuous terra-firme forests, because of longer times for more species to establish. Recently abandoned channels have had less time to become sites for widespread tree development, and are either not vegetated or covered by savanna. Conclusion: Landforms in eastern Marajo Island reflect changes in the physical environment due to reactivation of tectonic faults during the latest Quaternary. This promoted a dynamic history of channel abandonment, which controlled a set of interrelated parameters (soil type, topography, hydrology) that determined species location. Inclusion of a geological perspective for paleoenvironmental reconstruction can increase understanding of plant distribution in Amazonia.

Regulating industrial forest concessions in Central Africa and South America

Tropical countries face special specific problems in implementing sustainable forest management (SFM). In many countries, questions are raised on whether tropical forests should be publicly, commonly or privately owned and managed in order to enhance sustainability. Other debates also focus on whether small-scale enterprises are better positioned than large-scale industrial concessions to reduce poverty and attain sustainable management. In countries where large tracts of forest are state-owned, concessions are viewed as a means of delivering services of public and collective interest through an association of private investment and public regulation. However, the success of an industrial concession model in countries with large forest resource endowment to achieve multiple goals such as sustainable forest management and local/regional development depends on two critical assumptions. First, forest functions and services should be managed and maintained as public goods. In many cases, additional uses - and corresponding rights - can take place alongside logging activities. Industrial concessions can be more efficient than other tenure models (such as community-based forest management and small-scale enterprises) in achieving SFM, add value to raw material and comply with growing environmental norms. This is especially the case in market-remote areas with low population density and poor infrastructure. Secondly, to achieve these different outcomes, any concession system needs to be monitored and regulated, especially in contexts dominated by asymmetrical information between regulating authorities and concessionaires. New institutional responses have recently been put forward in several countries, providing valuable materials to design a renewed policy mix which associates public and private incentives. This paper provides a survey of the experience of forest concessions in several Central African and South American countries. The concession system is examined in order to clarify the issues involved, the problems encountered, and what can be learned from the shared experience of these countries in the last decade. This paper argues that despite a sometimes patchy record, concessions can help promote SFM so long as they are packaged with a certain number of specific measures. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emerging Threats and Opportunities for Large-Scale Ecological Restoration in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

Over the past 150 years, Brazil has played a pioneering role in developing environmental policies and pursuing forest conservation and ecological restoration of degraded ecosystems. In particular, the Brazilian Forest Act, first drafted in 1934, has been fundamental in reducing deforestation and engaging private land owners in forest restoration initiatives. At the time of writing (December 2010), however, a proposal for major revision of the Brazilian Forest Act is under intense debate in the National Assembly, and we are deeply concerned about the outcome. On the basis of the analysis of detailed vegetation and hydrographic maps, we estimate that the proposed changes may reduce the total amount of potential areas for restoration in the Atlantic Forest by approximately 6 million hectares. As a radically different policy model, we present the Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact (AFRP), which is a group of more than 160 members that represents one of the most important and ambitious ecological restoration programs in the world. The AFRP aims to restore 15 million hectares of degraded lands in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome by 2050 and increase the current forest cover of the biome from 17% to at least 30%. We argue that not only should Brazilian lawmakers refrain from revising the existing Forest Law, but also greatly step up investments in the science, business, and practice of ecological restoration throughout the country, including the Atlantic Forest. The AFRP provides a template that could be adapted to other forest biomes in Brazil and to other megadiversity countries around the world.