Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Studies on friction and formation of transfer layer when Al-4Mg alloy pins slid at various numbers of cycles on steel plates of different surface texture

In the present investigation, various kinds of textures, namely, unidirectional, 8-ground, and random were attained on the die surfaces. Roughness of the textures was varied using different grits of emery papers or polishing powders. Then pins made of Al-4Mg alloys were slid against steel plates at various numbers of cycles, namely 1, 2, 6, 10 and 20 under both dry and lubricated conditions using an inclined pin-on-plate sliding tester. The morphologies of the worn surfaces of the pins and the formation of transfer layer on the counter surfaces were observed using a scanning electron microscope. Surface roughness parameters of the plate were measured using an optical profilometer. It was observed that the coefficient of friction and formation of transfer layer during the first few cycles depend on the die surface textures under both dry and lubricated conditions. It was also observed that under lubricated condition, the coefficient of friction decreases with number of cycles for all kinds of textures. However, under dry condition, it ecreases for unidirectional and 8-ground surfaces while for random surfaces it increases with number of cycles

Film cooling at hypersonic Mach numbers using forward facing array of micro-jets

Experimental investigations are carried out in the IISc hypersonic shock tunnel on film cooling effectiveness of a single jet (diameter 2 mm and 0.9 mm), and an array forward facing of micro-jets (diameter 300 mu m each) of same effective area (corresponding to the respective single jet). The single jet and the corresponding micro-jets are injected from the stagnation zone of a blunt cone model (58, apex angle and nose radius of 35 mm). Nitrogen and Helium are injected as coolant gases. Experiments are performed at freestream Mach number 5.9, at 0 degrees angle of attack, with a stagnation enthalpy of 1.84 MJ/kg, with and without injections. The ratios of the jet stagnation pressure to the freestream pitot pressure used in the present study are 1.2 and 1.45. Up to 50% reduction in surface heat transfer rate was observed with the array of micro-jets, compared to that of the respective single jet with nitrogen as the coolant, while the corresponding eduction was up to 37% for helium injection, with the schlieren flow visualizations showing no major change in the shock standoff distance, and thus no major changes in other aerodynamic aspects such as drag.

Measuring and reporting on social performance: From numbers and narratives to a useful framework for social enterprises

This paper examines the need for a framework for social enterprises to measure and report on social performance. Reviewing social reporting practice, and concepts central to financial reporting, this paper presents a framework for social performance reporting in the context of social enterprises. A Statement of Social Performance is developed, through consideration of social reporting approaches, influences, and issues in third sector and private sector organisations. This Statement is applied in the context of an employment and training social enterprise, demonstrating its application in practice.

Boronia heterophylla vase life is influenced more by ethylene than by bacterial numbers or vase solution pH

Bacterial proliferation in both vase solutions and in cut flower stems has been implicated in reducing the vase life of numerous genera. Boronia heterophylla F. Muell. (Red Boronia) vase life was assessed at two stages of floral maturity for nine vase solution treatments covering a pH range of 2.5-5.7. Vase life for advanced harvest maturity stems ranged from 4.2 d in 10 mM citric acid + 50 mg L-1 chlorine (pH 2.5) to 12.9 d after STS pulsing (pH 5.7). For normal harvest maturity stems, the corresponding range was 5.8-19.0 d, respectively. Vase solutions containing 50 mg L-1 chlorine biocide resulted in decreased longevity. In contrast, pulsing with the ethylene-binding inhibitor, STS, significantly increased vase life. The number of bacteria in the vase solutions after 11 d was determined in stems of advanced maturity. The solution with the greatest number of bacteria, 4.0 x 10(10) cfu mL(-1), was water used after STS pulsing and in which the flowers lasted longest. Vase solution bacteria were enumerated on days 0,3, 6, 9 and 12 of the vase period with stems of normal harvest maturity. There was no relationship between vase life and vase solution bacterial numbers ((R) over bar (2) = 0.000). Moreover, there was a negative relationship between numbers of bacteria in basal 0-5 cm stem segments and vase life. As no correlations were evident between longevity and either the pH or vase solution bacterial numbers, B. heterophylla vase life was evidently limited principally by ethylene action. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydration numbers of some metal acetates, monochloroacetates and trichloroacetates in solution from ultrasonic velocity and conpressibility measurements

Ultrasonic velocities in aqueous solutions of some metal acetates, monochloroacelates and trichloroacetates, and the respective acids have been measured at 1 MHz frequency using the pulse technique. The ultrsonic velocity, adiabatic compressibility and apperent molal compressibility were measured as a function of concentration. The apparent molal compressibility values at infinite dilution were calculated and used to determine the hydration numbers.

Jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two-dimensional regular local ring

The multiplier ideals of an ideal in a regular local ring form a family of ideals parametrized by non-negative rational numbers. As the rational number increases the corresponding multiplier ideal remains unchanged until at some point it gets strictly smaller. A rational number where this kind of diminishing occurs is called a jumping number of the ideal. In this manuscript we shall give an explicit formula for the jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two dimensional regular local ring. In particular, we obtain a formula for the jumping numbers of an analytically irreducible plane curve. We then show that the jumping numbers determine the equisingularity class of the curve.

Mass transfer with surface reaction in arrays of cylinders at low reynolds and high peclet numbers

Creeping flow hydrodynamics combined with diffusion boundary layer equation are solved in conjunction with free-surface cell model to obtain a solution of the problem of convective transfer with surface reaction for flow parallel to an array of cylindrical pellets at high Peclet numbers and under fast and intermediate kinetics regimes. Expressions are derived for surface concentration, boundary layer thickness, mass flux and Sherwood number in terms of Damkoehler number, Peclet number and void fraction of the array. The theoretical results are evaluated numerically.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

Two-way converter logic for positive and negative binary numbers

This paper describes a hardware implementation of a two-way converter logic by which conversion between numbers from positive to negative binary representation is possible. Index terms: (i) Negative radix, (ii) Positive radix, (iii) Two-way conversion.

The Formation, Numbers And Radio Output Of Giant Radio Galaxies

The numbers and mean radio luminosities of giant radio galaxies (GRGs) have been calculated for redshifts up to z = 0.6, assuming a sensitivity limit of 1 Jy at 1 GHz for the observations. The estimates are obtained with a model for the beam propagation, first through the hot gaseaous halo around the parent galaxy, and thereafter, through the even hotter but less dense intergalactic medium. The model is able to accurately reproduce the observed numbers and mean radio luminosities of GRGs at redshifts of less than 0.1, and it predicts that a somewhat larger number of GRGs should be found at redshifts of greater than 0.1.

Transient Momentum and Enthalpy Transfer in Packed Beds at High Reynolds Numbers

An experimental study for transient temperature response and pressure drop in a randomly packed bed at high Reynolds numbers is presented.The packed bed is used as a compact heat exchanger along with a solid-propellant gas generator, to generate room-temperature gases for use in control actuation, air bottle pressurization, etc. Packed beds of lengths 200 and 300 mm were characterized for packing-sphere-based Reynolds numbers ranging from 0.8 x 10(4) to 8.5 x 10(4).The solid packing used in the bed consisted of phi 9.5 mm steel spheres. The bed-to-particle diameter ratio was with the average packed-bed porosity around 0.43. The inlet flow temperature was unsteady and a mesh of spheres was used at either end to eliminate flow entrance and exit effects. Gas temperature and pressure were measured at the entry, exit,and at three axial locations along centerline in the packed beds. The solid packing temperature was measured at three axial locations in the packed bed. A correlation based on the ratio of pressure drop and inlet-flow momentum (Euler number) exhibited an asymptotically decreasing trend with increasing Reynolds number. Axial conduction across the packed bed was found to he negligible in the investigated Reynolds number range. The enthalpy absorption rate to solid packing from hot gases is plotted as a function of a nondimensional time constant for different Reynolds numbers. A longer packed bed had high enthalpy absorption rate at Reynolds number similar to 10(4), which decreased at Reynolds number similar to 10(5). The enthalpy absorption plots can be used for estimating enthalpy drop across packed bed with different material, but for a geometrically similar packing.