Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Stress-tolerant corals of Florida Bay are vulnerable to ocean acidification

In situ calcification measurements tested the hypothesis that corals from environments (Florida Bay, USA) that naturally experience large swings in pCO2 and pH will be tolerant or less sensitive to ocean acidification than species from laboratory experiments with less variable carbonate chemistry. The pCO2 in Florida Bay varies from summer to winter by several hundred ppm roughly comparable to the increase predicted by the end of the century. Rates of net photosynthesis and calcification of two stress-tolerant coral species, Siderastrea radians and Solenastrea hyades, were measured under the prevailing ambient chemical conditions and under conditions amended to simulate a pH drop of 0.1-0.2 units at bimonthly intervals over a 2-yr period. Net photosynthesis was not changed by the elevation in pCO2 and drop in pH; however, calcification declined by 52 and 50 % per unit decrease in saturation state, respectively. These results indicate that the calcification rates of S. radians and S. hyades are just as sensitive to a reduction in saturation state as coral species that have been previously studied. In other words, stress tolerance to temperature and salinity extremes as well as regular exposure to large swings in pCO2 and pH did not make them any less sensitive to ocean acidification. These two species likely survive in Florida Bay in part because they devote proportionately less energy to calcification than most other species and the average saturation state is elevated relative to that of nearby offshore water due to high rates of primary production by seagrasses.

Publications available from Northern Prairie Science Center.

"September 1994."

Origin, transport and fate of organic matter in Florida Bay: A biomarker record of historical environmental changes

The Everglades are undergoing the world largest wetland restoration project with the aim of returning this system to hydrological conditions in place prior to anthropogenic modifications. Therefore, it is essential to know what these pristine conditions were. In this work, molecular marker (biomarker) distributions and carbon stable isotopic signatures in sediment samples were employed to assess historical environmental changes in Florida Bay over approximately the last 4000 years. Two biomarkers of terrestrial plants, particularly for mangroves (taraxerol and C29 n-alkane), combined with two seagrass proxies (the Paq and the C25/C 27 n-alkan-2-one ratio) revealed a sedimentary environmental shift from freshwater marshes to mangrove swamps and then to seagrass dominated marine ecosystems, likely as a result of sea-level rise in Florida Bay since the Holocene. The maximum values for the Paq and the C 25/C27 n-alkan-2-ones occurred during the 20th century, suggesting that the greatest abundance of seagrass cover is a recent rather than a historical, long-term phenomenon. The greater oscillation in frequency and amplitude for the biomarkers after 1900 potentially reflects an ecosystem under increasing anthropogenic stress. Several algal biomarkers such as C20 highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs), C 25 HBIs and dinosterol indicative of cyanobacteria, diatom and dinoflagellate organic matter inputs respectively, increased dramatically in the latter part of the 20th century and were attributed to recent anthropogenic changes in Florida Bay. ^ The highlight of this work is the development of HBIs as paleo-proxies. As biomarkers of diatoms, the C25 HBIs in the core from the central bay displayed the highest concentration at mid depth, reflecting strong historical inputs of diatom-derived sedimentary OM during that period. In fact, the depth profile of C25 HBIs coincided quite well with historical variations in diatom abundance and variations in diatom species composition in central Florida Bay based on the results of fossil diatom species analysis by microscopy. This study provides evidence that some C25 HBIs can be applied as biomarkers for certain diatom inputs in paleoenvironmental studies. The sources of C20 and C30 HBIs and their potential applicability as paleo-proxies were also investigated and their sources assessed based on their δ13C distributions. ^

Relative significance of pelagic, benthic and allochthonous organic matter to microbial carbon cycling in a phosphorus-depleted subtropical estuary (Florida Bay)

Heterotrophic bacteria are important decomposers and transformers of primary production and provide an important link between detritus and the aquatic food web. In seagrass ecosystems, much of seagrass primary production is unavailable through direct grazing and must undergo microbial reworking before seagrass production can enter the aquatic food web. The goal of my dissertation research is to understand better the role heterotrophic bacteria play in carbon cycling in seagrass estuaries. My dissertation research focuses on Florida Bay, a seagrass estuary that has experienced recent changes in carbon source availability, which may have altered ecosystem function. My dissertation research investigates the importance of seagrass, algal and/or cyanobacterial, and allochthonous-derived organic matter to heterotrophic bacteria in Florida Bay and helps establish the carbon base of the estuarine food web. ^ A three tiered approach to the study of heterotrophic bacterial carbon cycling and trophic influences in Florida Bay was used: (1) Spatiotemporal observations of environmental parameters (hydrology, nutrients, extracellular enzymes, and microbial abundance, biomass, and production); (2) Microbial grazing experiments under different levels of top-down and bottom-up influence; and (3) Bulk and compound-specific (bacteria-biomarker fatty acid analysis) stable carbon isotope analysis. ^ In Florida Bay, spatiotemporal patterns in microbial extracellular enzyme (also called ectoenzyme) activities indicate that microorganisms hydrolyzed selectively fractions of the estuarine organic matter pool. The microbial community hydrolyzed organic acids, peptides, and phosphate esters and did not use storage and structural carbohydrates. Organic matter use by heterotrophic bacterioplankton in Florida Bay was co-regulated by bottom-up (resource availability) and top-down (grazer mediated) processes. A bacterial carbon budget based on bacterial, epiphytic, and seagrass production indicates that heterotrophic bacterial carbon cycles are supported primarily through epiphytic production with mixing from seagrass production. Stable carbon isotope analysis of bacteria biomarkers and carbon sources in Florida Bay corroborate the results of the bacterial carbon budget. These results support previous studies of aquatic consumers in Florida Bay, indicating that epiphytic/benthic algal and/or cyanobacterial production with mixing from seagrass-derived organic matter is the carbon base of the seagrass estuarine food web. ^

Quantitative diatom-based reconstruction of paleoenvironmental conditions in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay, U.S.A.

The spatial and temporal distribution of modern diatom assemblages in surface sediments, on the most dominant macrophytes, and in the water column at 96 locations in Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay and adjacent regions were examined in order to develop paleoenvironmental prediction models for this region. Analyses of these distributions revealed distinct temporal and spatial differences in assemblages among the locations. The differences among diatom assemblages living on subaquatic vegetation and sediments, and in the water column were significant. Because concentrations of salts, total phosphorus (WTP), total nitrogen (WTN) and total organic carbon (WTOC) are partly controlled by water management in this region, diatom-based models were produced to assess these variables. Discriminant function analyses showed that diatoms can also be successfully used to reconstruct changes in the abundance of diatom assemblages typical for different habitats and life habits. ^ To interpret paleoenvironmental changes, changes in salinity, WTN, WTP and WTOC were inferred from diatoms preserved in sediment cores collected along environmental gradients in Florida Bay (4 cores) and from nearshore and offshore locations in Biscayne Bay (3 cores). The reconstructions showed that water quality conditions in these estuaries have been fluctuating for thousands of years due to natural processes and sea-level changes, but almost synchronized shifts in diatom assemblages occurred in the mid-1960’s at all coring locations (except Ninemile Bank and Bob Allen Bank in Florida Bay). These alterations correspond to the major construction of numerous water management structures on the mainland. Additionally, all the coring sites (except Card Sound Bank, Biscayne Bay and Trout Cove, Florida Bay) showed decreasing salinity and fluctuations in nutrient levels in the last two decades that correspond to increased rainfall in the 1990’s and increased freshwater discharge to the bays, a result of increased freshwater deliveries to the Everglades by South Florida Water Management District in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Reconstructions of the abundance of diatom assemblages typical for different habitats and life habits revealed multiple sources of diatoms to the coring locations and that epiphytic assemblages in both bays increased in abundance since the early 1990’s. ^

Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Florida Bay, South Florida, using benthic foraminifera

Efforts that are underway to rehabilitate the Florida Bay ecosystem to a more natural state are best guided by a comprehensive understanding of the natural versus human-induced variability that has existed within the ecosystem. Benthic foraminifera, which are well-known paleoenvironmental indicators, were identified in 203 sediment samples from six sediment cores taken from Florida Bay, and analyzed to understand the environmental variability through anthropogenically unaltered and altered periods. In this research, taxa serving as indicators of (1) seagrass abundance (which is correlated with water quality), (2) salinity, and (3) general habitat change, were studied in detail over the past 120 years, and more generally over the past ~4000 years. Historical seagrass abundance was reconstructed with the proportions of species that prefer living attached to seagrass blades over other substrates. Historical salinity trends were determined by analyzing brackish versus marine faunas, which were defined based on species’ salinity preferences. Statistical methods including cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, analysis of variance and Fisher’s α were used to analyze trends in the data. The changes in seagrass abundance and salinity over the last ~120 years are attributed to anthropogenic activities such as construction of the Flagler Railroad from the mainland to the Florida Keys, the Tamiami Trail that stretches from the east to west coast, and canals and levees in south Florida, as well as natural events such as droughts and increased rainfall from hurricanes. Longer term changes (over ~4000 years) in seagrass abundance and salinity are mostly related to sea level changes. Since seawater entered the Florida Bay area around ~4000 years ago, only one probable sea level drop occurring around ~3000 years was identified.

Experimental nutrient enrichment causes complex changes in seagrass, microalgae, and macroalgae community structure in Florida Bay

We evaluated how changes in nutrient supply altered the composition of epiphytic and benthic microalgal communities in a Thalassia testudinum (turtle grass) bed in Florida Bay. We established study plots at four sites in the bay and added nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the sediments in a factorial design. After 18, 24, and 30 months of fertilization we measured the pigment concentrations in the epiphytic and benthic microalgal assemblages using high performance liquid chromatography. Overall, the epiphytic assemblage was P-limited in the eastern portion of the bay, but each phototrophic group displayed unique spatial and temporal responses to N and P addition. Epiphytic chlorophyll a, an indicator of total microalgal load, and epiphytic fucoxanthin, an indicator of diatoms, increased in response to P addition at one eastern bay site, decreased at another eastern bay site, and were not affected by P or N addition at two western bay sites. Epiphytic zeaxanthin, an indicator of the cyanobacteria/coralline red algae complex, and epiphytic chlorophyll b, an indicator of green algae, generally increased in response to P addition at both eastern bay sites but did not respond to P or N addition in the western bay. Benthic chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, fucoxanthin, and zeaxanthin showed complex responses to N and P addition in the eastern bay, suggesting that the benthic assemblage is limited by both N and P. Benthic assemblages in the western bay were variable over time and displayed few responses to N or P addition. The contrasting nutrient limitation patterns between the epiphytic and benthic communities in the eastern bay suggest that altering nutrient input to the bay, as might occur during Everglades restoration, can shift microalgal community structure, which may subsequently alter food web support for upper trophic levels.

The role of dissolved organic matter bioavailability in promoting phytoplankton blooms in Florida Bay

The clear, shallow, oligotrophic waters of Florida Bay are characterized by low phytoplankton biomass, yet periodic cyanobacteria and diatom blooms do occur. We hypothesized that allochthonous dissolved organic matter (DOM) was providing a subsidy to the system in the form of bound nutrients. Water from four bay sites was incubated under natural light and dark conditions with enrichments of either DOM ( > 1 kD, 2×DOM) or inorganic nutrients (N+P). Samples were analyzed for bacterial numbers, bacterial production, phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton community structure, and production, nutrients, and alkaline phosphatase (AP) activity. The influence of 2×DOM enrichment on phytoplankton biomass developed slowly during the incubations and was relatively small compared to nutrient additions. Inorganic nutrient additions resulted in an ephemeral bloom characterized initially as cyanobacterial and brown algae but which changed to dinoflagellate and/or brown algae by day six. The DIN:TP ratio decreased 10-fold in the N+P treatments as the system progressed towards N limitation. This ratio did not change significantly for 2×DOM treatments. In addition, these experiments indicated that both autotrophic and heterotrophic microbial populations in Florida Bay may fluctuate in their limitation by organic and inorganic nutrient availability. Both N+P and 2×DOM enrichments revealed significant and positive response in bioavailability of dissolved organic carbon (BDOC). Potential BDOC ranged from 1.1 to 35.5%, with the most labile forms occurring in Whipray Basin. BDOC at all sites was stimulated by the 2×DOM addition. Except for Duck Key, BDOC at all sites was also stimulated by the addition of N+P. BDOC was lower in the dry season than in the wet season (5.56% vs. 16.86%). This may be explained by the distinct chemical characteristics of the DOM produced at different times of year. Thus, both the heterotrophic and autotrophic microbial communities in Florida Bay are modulated by bioavailability of DOM. This has ramifications for the fate of DOM from the Everglades inputs, implicating DOM bioavailability as a contributing factor in regulating the onset, persistence, and composition of phytoplankton blooms.

Climatic Controls on Phytoplankton Biomass in a Sub-tropical Estuary, Florida Bay, USA

The extraction of climatic signals from time series of biogeochemical data is further complicated in estuarine regions because of the dynamic interaction of land, ocean, and atmosphere. We explored the behavior of potential global and regional climatic stressors to isolate specific shifts or trends, which could have a forcing role on the behavior of biogeochemical descriptors of water quality and phytoplankton biomass from Florida Bay, as an example of a sub-tropical estuary. We performed statistical analysis and subdivided the bay into six zones having unique biogeochemical characteristics. Significant shifts in the drivers were identified in all the chlorophyll a time series. Chlorophyll a concentrations closely follow global forcing and display a generalized declining trend on which seasonal oscillations are superimposed, and it is only interrupted by events of sudden increase triggered by storms which are followed by a relatively rapid return to pre-event conditions trailing again the long-term trend.

Spatial variability in Florida Bay particulate organic matter composition: combining flow cytometry with stable isotope analyses

Long-term management plans for restoration of natural flow conditions through the Everglades increase the importance of understanding potential nutrient impacts of increased freshwater delivery on Florida Bay biogeochemistry. Planktonic communities respond quickly to changes in water quality, thus spatial variability in community composition and relationships to nutrient parameters must be understood in order to evaluate future downstream impacts of modifications to Everglades hydrology. Here we present initial results combining flow cytometry analyses of phytoplankton and bacterial populations (0.1–50 μm size fraction) with measurements of δ13C and δ15N composition and dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations to explore proxies for planktonic species assemblage compositions and nutrient cycling. Particulate organic material in the 0.1–50 μm size fraction was collected from five stations in Northeastern and Western Florida Bay to characterize spatial variability in species assemblage and stable isotopic composition. A dense bloom of the picocyanobacterium, Synechococcus elongatus, was observed at Western Florida Bay sites. Smaller Synechococcus sp. were present at Northeast sites in much lower abundance. Bacteria and detrital particles were also more abundant at Western Florida Bay stations than in the northeast region. The highest abundance of detritus occurred at Trout Creek, which receives freshwater discharge from the Everglades through Taylor Slough. In terms of nutrient availability and stable isotopic values, the S. elongatus population in the Western bay corresponded to low DIN (0.5 μM NH 4 + ; 0.2 μM NO 3 − ) concentrations and depleted δ15N signatures ranging from +0.3 to +0.8‰, suggesting that the bloom supported high productivity levels through N2-fixation. δ15N values from the Northeast bay were more enriched (+2.0 to +3.0‰), characteristic of N-recycling. δ13C values were similar for all marine Florida Bay stations, ranging from −17.6 to −14.4‰, however were more depleted at the mangrove ecotone station (−25.5 to −22.3‰). The difference in the isotopic values reflects differences in carbon sources. These findings imply that variations in resource availability and nutrient sources exert significant control over planktonic community composition, which is reflected by stable isotopic signatures.

Variation and Uncertainty in Evaporation from a Subtropical Estuary: Florida Bay

Variation and uncertainty in estimated evaporation was determined over time and between two locations in Florida Bay, a subtropical estuary. Meteorological data were collected from September 2001 to August 2002 at Rabbit Key and Butternut Key within the Bay. Evaporation was estimated using both vapor flux and energy budget methods. The results were placed into a long-term context using 33 years of temperature and rainfall data collected in south Florida. Evaporation also was estimated from this long-term data using an empirical formula relating evaporation to clear sky solar radiation and air temperature. Evaporation estimates for the 12-mo period ranged from 144 to 175 cm yr21, depending on location and method, with an average of 163 cm yr21 (6 9%). Monthly values ranged from 9.2 to 18.5 cm, with the highest value observed in May, corresponding with the maximum in measured net radiation. Uncertainty estimates derived from measurement errors in the data were as much as 10%, and were large enough to obscure differences in evaporation between the two sites. Differences among all estimates for any month indicate the overall uncertainty in monthly evaporation, and ranged from 9% to 26%. Over a 33-yr period (1970–2002), estimated annual evaporation from Florida Bay ranged from 148 to 181 cm yr21, with an average of 166 cm yr21. Rainfall was consistently lower in Florida Bay than evaporation, with a long-term average of 106 cm yr21. Rainfall considered alone was uncorrelated with evaporation at both monthly and annual time scales; when the seasonal variation in clear sky radiation was also taken into account both net radiation and evaporation were significantly suppressed in months with high rainfall.

Projected Reorganization of Florida Bay Seagrass Communities in Response to the Increased Freshwater Inflow of Everglades Restoration

Historic changes in water-use management in the Florida Everglades have caused the quantity of freshwater inflow to Florida Bay to decline by approximately 60% while altering its timing and spatial distribution. Two consequences have been (1) increased salinity throughout the bay, including occurrences of hypersalinity, coupled with a decrease in salinity variability, and (2) change in benthic habitat structure. Restoration goals have been proposed to return the salinity climates (salinity and its variability) of Florida Bay to more estuarine conditions through changes in upstream water management, thereby returning seagrass species cover to a more historic state. To assess the potential for meeting those goals, we used two modeling approaches and long-term monitoring data. First, we applied the hydrological mass balance model FATHOM to predict salinity climate changes in sub-basins throughout the bay in response to a broad range of freshwater inflow from the Everglades. Second, because seagrass species exhibit different sensitivities to salinity climates, we used the FATHOM-modeled salinity climates as input to a statistical discriminant function model that associates eight seagrass community types with water quality variables including salinity, salinity variability, total organic carbon, total phosphorus, nitrate, and ammonium, as well as sediment depth and light reaching the benthos. Salinity climates in the western sub-basins bordering the Gulf of Mexico were insensitive to even the largest (5-fold) modeled increases in freshwater inflow. However, the north, northeastern, and eastern sub-basins were highly sensitive to freshwater inflow and responded to comparatively small increases with decreased salinity and increased salinity variability. The discriminant function model predicted increased occurrences ofHalodule wrightii communities and decreased occurrences of Thalassia testudinum communities in response to the more estuarine salinity climates. The shift in community composition represents a return to the historically observed state and suggests that restoration goals for Florida Bay can be achieved through restoration of freshwater inflow from the Everglades.