Associação entre indicadores do ambiente construído e variáveis individuais com atividade física no lazer e no transporte em adultos do município de Rio Claro - SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Vulnerabilidades socioambientais de rios urbanos: bacia hidrográfica do rio Maranguapinho. Região metropolitana de Fortaleza, Ceará

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mapeamento geoestatístico da vulnerabilidade do Aquífero Guarani no município de Ribeirão Bonito - SP

The Guaraní aquifer has relevant importance both as a source of water for several urban centres and the development of agriculture and livestock. In recharge areas the aquifer is free and, therefore, subject to contamination of effluents and tailings deposited on soils that cover it. Thus, it becomes crucial not only its protection at all levels, as the knowledge of its degree of natural vulnerability. The present work used geostatistics modeling techniques to study the natural vulnerability of the Guaraní aquifer in the city of Rio Bonito, State of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, where the Guarani aquifer is exposed. These techniques, extensively used in evaluation studies of mineral deposits and oil tanks, can be adapted to produce a spatial classification or a regionalisation of probabilistic indices of vulnerability. By ordinary kriging method maps of vulnerability classification were obtained. To determine the vulnerability of the aquifer was employed the Aquifer Vulnerability Index (AVI), which requires knowledge of unsaturated zone thickness and permeability. The final product was a map with probabilistic index of vulnerability of the Guaraní aquifer, which presented values between 0 to 0.33 years, framing the area studied in AVI class extremely high vulnerability

Um estudo da vulnerabilidade socioclimática no Brasil e no mundo

The Socio Climate Vulnerability Index (IVSC, Portuguese acronym) aims to expose spatially and in a comparative basis, human settlement areas that are more susceptible to the potential risks posed by climate change. To access this vulnerability, the IVSC draws on the aggregation of adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators (Human Development Index and population density) and an indicator of projected climate change (Regional Climate Change Index-IRCM). The IVSC can be applied to any spatial scale, as long as data in reasonable resolution.is available. Knowing the spatial distribution of vulnerability is an important strategic step in development and implementation of measures that seeks to improve human development and the preparedness of society for future environmental changes. In addition, the production and comparison climate change vulnerability indexes is an important exercise to improve gradually the quality of information provided to decision makers and stakeholders in the management of measures involving climate change adaptation

Um estudo da vulnerabilidade socioclimática no Brasil e no mundo

The Socio Climate Vulnerability Index (IVSC, Portuguese acronym) aims to expose spatially and in a comparative basis, human settlement areas that are more susceptible to the potential risks posed by climate change. To access this vulnerability, the IVSC draws on the aggregation of adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators (Human Development Index and population density) and an indicator of projected climate change (Regional Climate Change Index-IRCM). The IVSC can be applied to any spatial scale, as long as data in reasonable resolution.is available. Knowing the spatial distribution of vulnerability is an important strategic step in development and implementation of measures that seeks to improve human development and the preparedness of society for future environmental changes. In addition, the production and comparison climate change vulnerability indexes is an important exercise to improve gradually the quality of information provided to decision makers and stakeholders in the management of measures involving climate change adaptation

Análisis y determinación de vulnerabiblidad costera mediante CVI de la mitad sur de la isla de Gran Canaria

Máster Oficial en Gestión Costera

Analisi della vulnerabilità sociale e danno da tsunami per la città di Siracusa

Siracusa, importante città della Sicilia sud orientale, si affaccia sul Mar Ionio ed è situata in una zona altamente esposta al pericolo di tsunami, di tipo locale e non: fra i numerosi eventi che hanno colpito quest’area si ricordano i maremoti dell’11 gennaio 1693 e del 28 dicembre 1908. L’obiettivo di questa Tesi è studiare la vulnerabilità sociale, esposizione e rischio legati a un’eventuale inondazione di Siracusa dovuta a tsunami. Il presente lavoro è strutturato come segue. Innanzitutto, si fornisce una descrizione della regione interessata illustrandone gli aspetti geografici e geologici e tracciando una breve sintesi della sequenza degli tsunami che l’hanno colpita. Successivamente si prende in esame la vulnerabilità, in particolare la vulnerabilità sociale, facendo un breve excursus dei concetti e delle metodologie di analisi. Nella Tesi lo studio della vulnerabilità sociale sarà diviso in tre fasi che si differenziano sia per l’approccio utilizzato che per le dimensioni dell’area in esame. Nella prima fase viene studiata tutta la costa orientale della Sicilia con l’obiettivo di calcolare la vulnerabilità sociale su base comunale. Per ogni comune della costa verrà calcolato un indice di vulnerabilità noto nella letteratura specialistica come SoVI (Social Vulnerability Index). Nella seconda fase ci si concentra sul comune di Siracusa e si stima il numero di persone potenzialmente colpite da tsunami sulla base di dati statistici disponibili a livello municipale. La terza fase consiste in un’analisi ancora più dettagliata che studia puntualmente le strutture che si trovano nella zona inondata e quantifica il danno sia per le persone che per le costruzioni considerando per queste ultime anche il loro valore economico.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Vulnerabilidade socioambiental no município de Natal, RN

Contemporary society lives surrounded by various types of risks, causing individuals to be taken by a constant feeling of fear and insecurity, as the negative risks, always bring some harm to the population directly or indirectly involved. The city of Natal has several risk areas, especially on the outskirts of the city, due to the occupation of spaces that have laws and / or natural physical limitations as well as the lack of urban organization, thus increasing the vulnerability of the population living in these areas. The principal objective of this research was to map the areas of social vulnerability and natural hazards in Natal, taking into account the interrelationships between social vulnerability and differential exposure to natural hazards. Therefore, it was necessary to establish, according to the methodology used, the degree of social vulnerability and vulnerability to natural hazard in which individuals are subject, to establish the relationship between society/ risks. In this case, the methodology proposed by Crepani (2001) which is based on ecodynamic Tricart (1977), which classifies the areas of risk and the degree of vulnerability of these areas according to the morphodynamic processes for preparation of the Vulnerability Index was used Physical natural, and for organizing the social Vulnerability Index adopted an adaptation of the Paulista social Vulnerability Index, prepared by SEADE (Fundação Sistema Estadual de Análise de Dados) of the State of São Paulo, drawing on data that denote social disadvantage at the census tract level. Then, with the superposition of these two indices, it was elaborated a Socioenvironmental Vulnerability Index. Thus, it is concluded that besides spatialize areas of risk which indicates the degree of vulnerability of individuals potentially exposed to natural hazard.

Vulnerabilidade socioambiental no bairro de Mãe Luíza, Natal – RN/Brasil

This work has as object the elaboration of social environmental indicator of disaster risk that are present in precarious areas of human occupation, related to intense environmental dynamic from the perspective of the studies about the subject in Geography. The District of Mãe Luiza in Natal, capital city of Rio Grande do Norte, was defined as the study area. The place was chosen because it presents –historically- several vulnerability conditions and exposure to disaster risk. After a local social environmental description, two indexes were elaborated: the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI or IVS in Portuguese), based on 17 (seventeen) variables arranged on a questionnaire addressed to the population nucleus of the district, on regular grid (systematic sampling), classified into 5 (five) levels of SV from the weighted average; and the Physical and Natural Exposure to the Mass Movements Index (EMMI or IEMM in Portuguese) which had 16 (sixteen) variables that feature conditions of exposure to the mass movements in the district with classified levels from the weighted average of 1 (one) to 5 (five). The relationship between these two results, specialized in the district map, produced the Social Environmental Vulnerability Index (SEVI or IVSA in Portuguese) of Mãe Luiza, also classified into 5 (five) levels, following the Boolean logic correlation for cartographic overlay with use of computer software ArcGIS v.9.3, being named as: Very Low; low; average; high; and Very High Environmental Vulnerability in District. The study is based on the methodology proposed by Guerra et al (2009) for EMMI and by Almeida (2010) for SVI. They were modified and adapted according to the local reality, producing a new methodology in this study area. It was concluded that the neighborhood has most of its area with High and Very High Socio-environmental vulnerability to disasters, defined seven (7) critical areas, with Very High IVSA, and hazards associated with mass movements or flooding. In the end, the main issues that were found, such as generating elements for proposing mitigation measures and/or the proposed interventions were enumerated, related to structural order of vulnerability factors: how low constructive pattern of households; poor urban drainage; Real Estate forsaken in landslide routes; infrastructure ready access roads and slope containment. And social: as a lack of education about environmental risk; income and education of residents; presence of persons with limited mobility and/or those with special needs. This reality highlights the need for urgent action applied to the resolution and/or reduction of these problems, which is focusing the end of this work.

Índice de vulnerabilidad de la población en situación de discapacidad en Medellín

El objetivo de este trabajo es construir un índice de vulnerabilidad para la población de Medellín en situación de discapacidad en el 2008, con el fin de determinar los aspectos que disminuyen las oportunidades de hacer uso de sus activos materiales e inmateriales, deteriorando por ende la calidad de vida de esta población.

Application of battery energy storage in the Québec interconnection

Le Système Stockage de l’Énergie par Batterie ou Batterie de Stockage d’Énergie (BSE) offre de formidables atouts dans les domaines de la production, du transport, de la distribution et de la consommation d’énergie électrique. Cette technologie est notamment considérée par plusieurs opérateurs à travers le monde entier, comme un nouveau dispositif permettant d’injecter d’importantes quantités d’énergie renouvelable d’une part et d’autre part, en tant que composante essentielle aux grands réseaux électriques. De plus, d’énormes avantages peuvent être associés au déploiement de la technologie du BSE aussi bien dans les réseaux intelligents que pour la réduction de l’émission des gaz à effet de serre, la réduction des pertes marginales, l’alimentation de certains consommateurs en source d’énergie d’urgence, l’amélioration de la gestion de l’énergie, et l’accroissement de l’efficacité énergétique dans les réseaux. Cette présente thèse comprend trois étapes à savoir : l’Étape 1 - est relative à l’utilisation de la BSE en guise de réduction des pertes électriques ; l’Étape 2 - utilise la BSE comme élément de réserve tournante en vue de l’atténuation de la vulnérabilité du réseau ; et l’Étape 3 - introduit une nouvelle méthode d’amélioration des oscillations de fréquence par modulation de la puissance réactive, et l’utilisation de la BSE pour satisfaire la réserve primaire de fréquence. La première Étape, relative à l’utilisation de la BSE en vue de la réduction des pertes, est elle-même subdivisée en deux sous-étapes dont la première est consacrée à l’allocation optimale et le seconde, à l’utilisation optimale. Dans la première sous-étape, l’Algorithme génétique NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) a été programmé dans CASIR, le Super-Ordinateur de l’IREQ, en tant qu’algorithme évolutionniste multiobjectifs, permettant d’extraire un ensemble de solutions pour un dimensionnement optimal et un emplacement adéquat des multiple unités de BSE, tout en minimisant les pertes de puissance, et en considérant en même temps la capacité totale des puissances des unités de BSE installées comme des fonctions objectives. La première sous-étape donne une réponse satisfaisante à l’allocation et résout aussi la question de la programmation/scheduling dans l’interconnexion du Québec. Dans le but de réaliser l’objectif de la seconde sous-étape, un certain nombre de solutions ont été retenues et développées/implantées durant un intervalle de temps d’une année, tout en tenant compte des paramètres (heure, capacité, rendement/efficacité, facteur de puissance) associés aux cycles de charge et de décharge de la BSE, alors que la réduction des pertes marginales et l’efficacité énergétique constituent les principaux objectifs. Quant à la seconde Étape, un nouvel indice de vulnérabilité a été introduit, formalisé et étudié ; indice qui est bien adapté aux réseaux modernes équipés de BES. L’algorithme génétique NSGA-II est de nouveau exécuté (ré-exécuté) alors que la minimisation de l’indice de vulnérabilité proposé et l’efficacité énergétique représentent les principaux objectifs. Les résultats obtenus prouvent que l’utilisation de la BSE peut, dans certains cas, éviter des pannes majeures du réseau. La troisième Étape expose un nouveau concept d’ajout d’une inertie virtuelle aux réseaux électriques, par le procédé de modulation de la puissance réactive. Il a ensuite été présenté l’utilisation de la BSE en guise de réserve primaire de fréquence. Un modèle générique de BSE, associé à l’interconnexion du Québec, a enfin été proposé dans un environnement MATLAB. Les résultats de simulations confirment la possibilité de l’utilisation des puissances active et réactive du système de la BSE en vue de la régulation de fréquence.

Trends in Water Quality within the Broward County Portion of the Biscayne Aquifer

Continuous and reliable monitoring of contaminants in drinking water, which adversely affect human health, is the main goal of the Broward County Well Field Protection Program. In this study the individual monitoring station locations were used in a yearly and quarterly spatiotemporal Ordinary Kriging interpolation to create a raster network of contaminant detections. In the final analysis, the raster spatiotemporal nitrate concentration trends were overlaid with a pollution vulnerability index to determine if the concentrations are influenced by a set of independent variables. The pollution vulnerability factors are depth to water, recharge, aquifer media, soil, impact to vadose zone, and conductivity. The creation of the nitrate raster dataset had an average RMS Standardized error close to 1 at 0.98. The greatest frequency of detections and the highest concentrations are found in the months of April, May, June, July, August, and September. An average of 76.4% of the nitrate intersected with cells of the pollution vulnerability index over 100.

La implementación de la trayectoria de desarrollo sostenible por parte de los pequeños estados insulares en desarrollo del Pacífico frente a su condición de vulnerabilidad

La investigación busca determinar el propósito que persiguen los pequeños Estados insulares en desarrollo del Pacífico al adoptar una trayectoria de desarrollo sostenible. Se plantea que la adopción de una trayectoria de desarrollo sostenible es la estrategia por medio de la cual estos Estados buscan hacer frente a su condición de vulnerabilidad; lo cual logran a través del uso de la diplomacia en distintos escenarios multilaterales, con el fin de modificar tanto sus prácticas como las de otros actores.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.