Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

An Assessment of the Penalties System for Infringements of EU Competition Law: Can Personal Sanctions be the Missing Piece of the Puzzle? IES WORKING PAPER 6/2013

Competition law seeks to protect competition on the market as a means of enhancing consumer welfare and of ensuring an efficient allocation of resources. In order to be successful, therefore, competition authorities should be adequately equipped and have at their disposal all necessary enforcement tools. However, at the EU level the current enforcement system of competition rules allows only for the imposition of administrative fines by the European Commission to liable undertakings. The main objectives, in turn, of an enforcement policy based on financial penalties are two fold: to impose sanctions on infringing undertakings which reflect the seriousness of the violation, and to ensure that the risk of penalties will deter both the infringing undertakings (often referred to as 'specific deterrence') and other undertakings that may be considering anti-competitive activities from engaging in them (often referred to as 'general deterrence'). In all circumstances, it is important to ensure that pecuniary sanctions imposed on infringing undertakings are proportionate and not excessive. Although pecuniary sanctions against infringing undertakings are a crucial part of the arsenal needed to deter competition law violations, they may not be sufficient. One alternative option in that regard is the strategic use of sanctions against the individuals involved in, or responsible for, the infringements. Sanctions against individuals are documented to focus the minds of directors and employees to comply with competition rules as they themselves, in addition to the undertakings in which they are employed, are at risk of infringements. Individual criminal penalties, including custodial sanctions, have been in fact adopted by almost half of the EU Member States. This is a powerful tool but is also limited in scope and hard to implement in practice mostly due to the high standards of proof required and the political consensus that needs first to be built. Administrative sanctions for individuals, on the other hand, promise to deliver up to a certain extent the same beneficial results as criminal sanctions whilst at the same time their adoption is not likely to meet strong opposition and their implementation in practice can be both efficient and effective. Directors’ disqualification, in particular, provides a strong individual incentive for each member, or prospective member, of the Board as well as other senior executives, to take compliance with competition law seriously. It is a flexible and promising tool that if added to the arsenal of the European Commission could bring balance to the current sanctioning system and that, in turn, would in all likelihood make the enforcement of EU competition rules more effective. Therefore, it is submitted that a competition law regime in order to be effective should be able to deliver policy objectives through a variety of tools, not simply by imposing significant pecuniary sanctions to infringing undertakings. It is also clear that individual sanctions, mostly of an administrative nature, are likely to play an increasingly important role as they focus the minds of those in business who might otherwise be inclined to regard infringing the law as a matter of corporate risk rather than of personal risk. At the EU level, in particular, the adoption of directors’ disqualification promises to deliver more effective compliance and greater overall economic impact.

Factors affecting student attitudes toward flexible online learning in management education

In response to recent technological advances and the trend toward flexible learning in education, the authors examined the factors affecting student satisfaction with flexible online learning. The authors identified 2 key student attributes of student satisfaction: (a) positive perceptions of technology in terms of ease of access and use of online flexible learning material and (b) autonomous and innovative learning styles. The authors derived measures of perceptions of technology from research on the Technology Acceptance Model and used locus of control and innovative attitude as indicators of an autonomous and innovative learning mode. First-year students undertaking an introductory management course completed surveys at the beginning (n = 248) and at the end (n = 256) of course work. The authors analyzed the data by using structural equation modeling. Results suggest that student satisfaction is influenced by positive perceptions toward technology and an autonomous learning mode.

A flexible and practical framework for reporting on ecologically sustainable development for wild capture fisheries

The principles of sustainable development (or ecologically sustainable development as it is known in Australia) are now accepted as the foundation for natural resource management worldwide and there are increasing community expectations that they will be implemented explicitly. Previous attempts to assess sustainable development for fisheries have mostly failed because the methods have been too restrictive, often attempting to develop a single set of indicators. In 2000, all the fishery agencies and major stakeholder groups in Australia supported the development of a National ESD Framework. This initiative resulted in a practical system being generated through the results of a series of case studies and stakeholder workshops. The Australian National ESD Framework divides ESD into eight major components within the three main categories of ecological well-being, human well-being and ability to contribute: Four main steps are used to complete an ESD report for a fishery: (1) identify relevant issues, (2) prioritise these using risk assessment, (3) complete appropriately detailed reports on each issue and (4) compile the material into a report. The tools to assist this process are now available and have been used to generate reports for many Australian fisheries. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The chemistry of British bituminous coals : an assessment of phase transfer catalysed reactions in the determination of coal structure

Three British bituminous coals, (Gedling, Cresswell, and Cortonwood Silkstone) were selected for study. Procedures were developed, using phase transfer catalysts (PTC's), to degrade the solvent insoluble fractions of the coals. PTC's are of interest because they have the potential to bring about selective high conversion reactions, under mild conditions, (often in the past, severe reaction conditions have had to be used to degrade the coals, this in turn resulted in the loss of much of the structural information). We have applied a variety of physical and chemical techniques to maximise the amount of structural information, these include, elemental analysis, 1H-NMR, 13C-CPMAS-NMR, GPC, GC-MS, FTIR spectroscopy, DRIFT spectroscopy, and gas adsorption measurements. The main conclusions from the work are listed below:- ( 1 ) PTC O-methylation; This reaction removes hydrogen bonds within the coal matrix by 'capping' the phenolic groups. It was found that the polymer-like matrix could be made more flexible, but not significantly more soluble, by O-methylation. I.E. the trapped or 'mobile' phase of the coals could be removed at a faster rate after this reaction had been carried out. ( 2 ) PTC Reductive and Acidic Ether Cleavage; The three coals were found to contain insignificant amounts of dialkyl and alkyl aryl ethers. The number of diaryl ethers could not be estimated, by reductive ether cleavage, (even though a high proportion of all three coals was solublised). The majority of the ethers present in the coals were inert to both cleavage methods, and are therefore assumed to be heterocyclic ethers. ( 3 ) Trif!uoroperacetic Acid Oxidation; This oxidant was used to study the aliphatic portions of the polymer-like macromolecular matrix of the coals. Normally this reagent will only solublise low rank coals, we however have developed a method whereby trifluoroperacetic acid can be used to degrade high rank bituminous coals. ( 4 ) PTC/Permanganate Oxidation; This reagent has been found to be much more selective than the traditional alkaline permanganate oxidation, with a lot more structural information being retained within the various fractions. This degradative method therefore has the potential of yielding new information about the molecular structure of coals.

Flexible measures in production process:a DEA-based approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been proven as an excellent data-oriented efficiency analysis method for comparing decision making units (DMUs) with multiple inputs and multiple outputs. In conventional DEA, it is assumed that the status of each measure is clearly known as either input or output. However, in some situations, a performance measure can play input role for some DMUs and output role for others. Cook and Zhu [Eur. J. Oper. Res. 180 (2007) 692–699] referred to these variables as flexible measures. The paper proposes an alternative model in which each flexible measure is treated as either input or output variable to maximize the technical efficiency of the DMU under evaluation. The main focus of this paper is on the impact that the flexible measures has on the definition of the PPS and the assessment of technical efficiency. An example in UK higher education intuitions shows applicability of the proposed approach.

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge. © 2007 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

TQM in e-Learning: a Self-assessment Model and Questionnaire

Organizations are seeking new, integrated systems that enable rapid changes through early identification of opportunities and problems, tracking of progress against plans, flexible allocation of resources to achieve goals, and consistent operations. Total Quality Management (TQM) is an overall business strategy. It means that all activities of the company will be focused on satisfying all stakeholders of the company. TQM can be realised by using the EFQM model. The EFQM model is a tool that organizations may use as a framework for self-evaluation that enables an organization to identify its strengths and areas for improvement and the extent to which its operations and results are in line with the characteristics of an excellent organization. We focus on a training organisation or to the learning department of an organization. So we are limiting the EFQM model to the training /learning activities. We can apply EFQM perfect on the level of an activity (business line) of a company. We selected the main criteria for which the learner can play the role of assessor. So only three main criteria left: the enabling resources, the enabling processes and the (learning) results for the learner. We limited the last one to “learning results” based on the Kirkpatrick model.

Durability assessment of polymer trileaflet heart valves

The durability of a polymer trileaflet valve is dependent on leaflet stress concentrations, so valve designs that reduce stress can, hypothetically, increase durability. Design aspects that are believed to contribute to reduced leaflet stress include stent flexibility, parabolic coaptation curvature, and leaflet anisotropy. With this in mind, the purpose of this investigation was to elucidate what specific combinations of these parameters promote optimal acute and long-term valve function. A combination of four stent designs, seven leaflet reinforcement materials, and three coaptation geometries were evaluated through a combination of experimentation and modeling. Static tensile and Poisson’s ratio tests and dynamic tensile fatigue testing were used to evaluate the individual leaflet components; and hydrodynamic testing and accelerated valve fatigue was used to assess complete valve prototypes. The two most successful designs included a 0.40 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a fatigue life of 10.35 years, and a 0.20 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a 28.9 mmHg decrease in pressure drop over the former. A finite element model was incorporated to verify the impact of the above-mentioned parameters on leaflet stress concentrations. Leaflet anisotropy had a large impact on stress concentrations, and matching the circumferential modulus to that of the natural valve showed the greatest benefit. Varying the radial modulus had minimal impact. Varying coaptation geometry had no impact, but stent flexibility did have a marked effect on the stress at the top of the commissure, where a completely rigid stent resulted in a higher peak stress than a flexible stent (E = 385 MPa). In conclusion, stent flexibility and leaflet anisotropy do effect stress concentrations in the SIBS trileaflet valve, but coaptation geometry does not. Regions of high stress concentrations were linked to failure locations in vitro, so a fatigue prediction model was developed from the S/N curves generated during dynamic tensile testing of the 0.20 mm knit-reinforced leaflets. Failure was predicted at approximately 400 million cycles (10 years) at the top of the commissure. In vitro fatigue of this valve showed failure initiation after approximately 167 million cycles (4.18 years), but it was related to a design defect that is subsequently being changed.

Durability Assessment of Polymer Trileaflet Heart Valves

The durability of a polymer trileaflet valve is dependent on leaflet stress concentrations, so valve designs that reduce stress can, hypothetically, increase durability. Design aspects that are believed to contribute to reduced leaflet stress include stent flexibility, parabolic coaptation curvature, and leaflet anisotropy. With this in mind, the purpose of this investigation was to elucidate what specific combinations of these parameters promote optimal acute and long-term valve function. A combination of four stent designs, seven leaflet reinforcement materials, and three coaptation geometries were evaluated through a combination of experimentation and modeling. Static tensile and Poisson’s ratio tests and dynamic tensile fatigue testing were used to evaluate the individual leaflet components; and hydrodynamic testing and accelerated valve fatigue was used to assess complete valve prototypes. The two most successful designs included a 0.40 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a fatigue life of 10.35 years, and a 0.20 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a 28.9 mmHg decrease in pressure drop over the former. A finite element model was incorporated to verify the impact of the above-mentioned parameters on leaflet stress concentrations. Leaflet anisotropy had a large impact on stress concentrations, and matching the circumferential modulus to that of the natural valve showed the greatest benefit. Varying the radial modulus had minimal impact. Varying coaptation geometry had no impact, but stent flexibility did have a marked effect on the stress at the top of the commissure, where a completely rigid stent resulted in a higher peak stress than a flexible stent (E = 385 MPa). In conclusion, stent flexibility and leaflet anisotropy do effect stress concentrations in the SIBS trileaflet valve, but coaptation geometry does not. Regions of high stress concentrations were linked to failure locations in vitro, so a fatigue prediction model was developed from the S/N curves generated during dynamic tensile testing of the 0.20 mm knit-reinforced leaflets. Failure was predicted at approximately 400 million cycles (10 years) at the top of the commissure. In vitro fatigue of this valve showed failure initiation after approximately 167 million cycles (4.18 years), but it was related to a design defect that is subsequently being changed.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Is Our Students Learning - QuestionMark: Extending E-Assessment Systems for Adapative Marking and Feedback

Our key contribution is a flexible, automated marking system that adds desirable functionality to existing E-Assessment systems. In our approach, any given E-Assessment system is relegated to a data-collection mechanism, whereas marking and the generation and distribution of personalised per-student feedback is handled separately by our own system. This allows content-rich Microsoft Word feedback documents to be generated and distributed to every student simultaneously according to a per-assessment schedule.

The feedback is adaptive in that it corresponds to the answers given by the student and provides guidance on where they may have gone wrong. It is not limited to simple multiple choice which are the most prescriptive question type offered by most E-Assessment Systems and as such most straightforward to mark consistently and provide individual per-alternative feedback strings. It is also better equipped to handle the use of mathematical symbols and images within the feedback documents which is more flexible than existing E-Assessment systems, which can only handle simple text strings.

As well as MCQs the system reliably and robustly handles Multiple Response, Text Matching and Numeric style questions in a more flexible manner than Questionmark: Perception and other E-Assessment Systems. It can also reliably handle multi-part questions where the response to an earlier question influences the answer to a later one and can adjust both scoring and feedback appropriately.

New question formats can be added at any time provided a corresponding marking method conforming to certain templates can also be programmed. Indeed, any question type for which a programmatic method of marking can be devised may be supported by our system. Furthermore, since the student’s response to each is question is marked programmatically, our system can be set to allow for minor deviations from the correct answer, and if appropriate award partial marks.

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08