Stratification and peer effects: An analysis of Lisbon public schools

Educational stratification has been a difficult subject to deal with having yet no study shown a quantitative measure of it. Using the idea of distribution comparison a measure based on parents’ education is built for the primary schools in Lisbon. Upon the confirmation that Lisbon is stratified, I use the measure of peer effects based on stratification and determine its impact on test scores, concluding that the existence of stratification improves scores of students in schools with more educated parents and decreases scores of students in schools with less educated parents. Moreover, using fixed effects I derive the conclusion that the measure of peers’ characteristics helps explain most of differences among schools.

What hides behind the fixed-term contracts wage gap?

In Portugal, about 20% of full-time workers are employed under a fixed-term contract. Using a rich longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal, with more than 20 million observations and covering the 2002-2012 period, we confirm the common idea that fixed-term contracts are not desirable when compared to permanent ones, by estimating a conditional wage gap of -1.7 log points. Then, we evaluate the sources of that wage penalty by combining a three way high-dimensional fixed effects model with the decomposition of Gelbach (2014), in which the three dimensions considered are the worker’s unobserved ability, the firm’s compensation wage policy and the job title effect. It is shown that the average worker with a fixed-term contract is less productive than his/her permanent counterparts, explaining -3.92 log points of the FTC wage penalty. Additionally, the sorting of workers into lower-paid job titles is also responsible for -0.59 log points of the wage gap. Surprisingly, we found that the allocation of workers among firms mitigates the existing wage penalty (in 4.23 log points), as fixed-term workers are concentrated into firms with a more generous compensation policy. Finally, following Figueiredo et al. (2014), we further control for the worker-firm match characteristics and reach the conclusion that fixed-term employment relationships have an overrepresentation of low quality worker-firm matches, explaining 0.65 log points of the FTC wage penalty.

Essays on bootstrap in econometrics

Ma thèse est composée de trois essais sur l'inférence par le bootstrap à la fois dans les modèles de données de panel et les modèles à grands nombres de variables instrumentales #VI# dont un grand nombre peut être faible. La théorie asymptotique n'étant pas toujours une bonne approximation de la distribution d'échantillonnage des estimateurs et statistiques de tests, je considère le bootstrap comme une alternative. Ces essais tentent d'étudier la validité asymptotique des procédures bootstrap existantes et quand invalides, proposent de nouvelles méthodes bootstrap valides. Le premier chapitre #co-écrit avec Sílvia Gonçalves# étudie la validité du bootstrap pour l'inférence dans un modèle de panel de données linéaire, dynamique et stationnaire à effets fixes. Nous considérons trois méthodes bootstrap: le recursive-design bootstrap, le fixed-design bootstrap et le pairs bootstrap. Ces méthodes sont des généralisations naturelles au contexte des panels des méthodes bootstrap considérées par Gonçalves et Kilian #2004# dans les modèles autorégressifs en séries temporelles. Nous montrons que l'estimateur MCO obtenu par le recursive-design bootstrap contient un terme intégré qui imite le biais de l'estimateur original. Ceci est en contraste avec le fixed-design bootstrap et le pairs bootstrap dont les distributions sont incorrectement centrées à zéro. Cependant, le recursive-design bootstrap et le pairs bootstrap sont asymptotiquement valides quand ils sont appliqués à l'estimateur corrigé du biais, contrairement au fixed-design bootstrap. Dans les simulations, le recursive-design bootstrap est la méthode qui produit les meilleurs résultats. Le deuxième chapitre étend les résultats du pairs bootstrap aux modèles de panel non linéaires dynamiques avec des effets fixes. Ces modèles sont souvent estimés par l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance #EMV# qui souffre également d'un biais. Récemment, Dhaene et Johmans #2014# ont proposé la méthode d'estimation split-jackknife. Bien que ces estimateurs ont des approximations asymptotiques normales centrées sur le vrai paramètre, de sérieuses distorsions demeurent à échantillons finis. Dhaene et Johmans #2014# ont proposé le pairs bootstrap comme alternative dans ce contexte sans aucune justification théorique. Pour combler cette lacune, je montre que cette méthode est asymptotiquement valide lorsqu'elle est utilisée pour estimer la distribution de l'estimateur split-jackknife bien qu'incapable d'estimer la distribution de l'EMV. Des simulations Monte Carlo montrent que les intervalles de confiance bootstrap basés sur l'estimateur split-jackknife aident grandement à réduire les distorsions liées à l'approximation normale en échantillons finis. En outre, j'applique cette méthode bootstrap à un modèle de participation des femmes au marché du travail pour construire des intervalles de confiance valides. Dans le dernier chapitre #co-écrit avec Wenjie Wang#, nous étudions la validité asymptotique des procédures bootstrap pour les modèles à grands nombres de variables instrumentales #VI# dont un grand nombre peu être faible. Nous montrons analytiquement qu'un bootstrap standard basé sur les résidus et le bootstrap restreint et efficace #RE# de Davidson et MacKinnon #2008, 2010, 2014# ne peuvent pas estimer la distribution limite de l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance à information limitée #EMVIL#. La raison principale est qu'ils ne parviennent pas à bien imiter le paramètre qui caractérise l'intensité de l'identification dans l'échantillon. Par conséquent, nous proposons une méthode bootstrap modifiée qui estime de facon convergente cette distribution limite. Nos simulations montrent que la méthode bootstrap modifiée réduit considérablement les distorsions des tests asymptotiques de type Wald #$t$# dans les échantillons finis, en particulier lorsque le degré d'endogénéité est élevé.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Combined Analysis of the Short-Term Effects of Photochemical Air Pollutants on Mortality within the EMECAM Project

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO2, once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 μg/m3 increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO2 level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval(CI), –0.003–0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution

Mandatory and voluntary information disclosure and the effects on financial analysts: evidence from China

Purpose – This paper aims to make a comparison, different from existing literature solely focusing on voluntary earnings forecasts and ex post earnings surprise, between the effects of mandatory earnings surprise warnings and voluntary information disclosure issued by management teams on financial analysts in terms of the number of followings and the accuracy of earnings forecasts. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses panel data analysis with fixed effects on data collected from Chinese public firms between 2006 and 2010. It uses an exogenous regulation enforcement to minimise the endogeneity problem. Findings – This paper finds that financial analysts are less likely to follow firms which mandatorily issue earnings surprise warnings ex ante than those voluntarily issue earnings forecasts. Moreover, ex post, they issue less accurate and more dispersed forecasts on former firms. The results support Brown et al.’s (2009) finding in the USA and suggest that the earnings surprise warnings affect information asymmetries. Practical implications – This paper justifies the mandatory earnings surprise warnings policy issued by Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission in 2006. Originality/value – Mandatory earnings surprise is a unique practical regulation for publicly listed firms in China. This paper, for the first time, provides empirical evaluation on the effectiveness of a mandatory information disclosure policy in China. Consistent with existing literature on information disclosure by public firms in other countries, this paper finds that, in China, voluntary information disclosure captures more private information than mandatory information disclosure on corporate earnings ability.

Effects of acute alkalosis and acidosis on performance

Ingestion of agents that modify blood buffering action may affect high-intensity performance. Here we present a meta-analysis of the effects of acute ingestion of three such agents - sodium bicarbonate, sodium citrate and ammonium chloride - on performance and related physiological variables (blood bicarbonate, pH and lactate). A literature search yielded 59 useable studies with 188 observations of performance effects. To perform the mixed- model meta-analysis, all performance effects were converted into a percentage change in mean power and were weighted using standard errors derived from exact p-values, confidence limits (CLs) or estimated errors of measurement. The fixed effects in the meta-analytic model included the number of performance-test bouts (linear), test duration (log linear), blinding (yes/no), competitive status (athiete/nonathlete) and sex (male/female). Dose expressed as buffering mmoL/kg/body mass (BM) was included as a strictly proportional linear effect interacted with all effects except blinding. Probabilistic inferences were derived with reference to thresholds for small and moderate effects on performance of 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Publication bias was reduced by excluding study estimates with a standard error >2.7%. The remaining 38 studies and 137 estimates for sodium bicarbonate produced a possibly mod- erate performance enhancement of 1.7% (90% CL ± 2.0%) with a typical dose of 3.5mmoL/kg/BM (-0.3g/kgIBM) in a single 1-minute sprint, following blinded consumption by male athletes. In the 16 studies and 45 estimates for sodium citrate, a typical dose of l.SmmoL/kgIBM (-0.5gIkgJBM) had an unclear effect on performance of 0.0% (±1.3%), while the five studies and six estimates for ammonium chloride produced a possibly moderate impairment of 1.6% (±1.9%) with a typical dose of 5.5mmoL/kgIBM (-0.3glkg/BM). Study and subject characteristics had the following modifying small effects on the enhancement of performance with sodium bicarbonate: an increase of 0.5% (±0.6%) with a 1 mmoL/kg/BM increase in dose; an increase of 0.6% (±0.4%) with five extra sprint bouts; a reduction of 0.6% (±0.9%) for each 10-fold increase in test duration (e.g. 1-10 minutes); reductions of 1.1% (± 1 .1%) with nonathletes and 0.7% (±1.4%) with females. Unexplained variation in effects between research settings was typically ± 1.2%. The only noteworthy effects involving physiological variables were a small correlation between performance and pre-exercise increase in blood bicarbonate with sodium bi- carbonate ingestion, and a very large correlation between the increase in blood bicarbonate and time between sodium citrate ingestion and exercise. The approximate equal and opposite effects of sodium bicarbonate and am- monium chloride are consistent with direct performance effects of pH, but sodium citrate appears to have some additional metabolic inhibitory effect. Important future research includes studies of sodium citrate ingestion several hours before exercise and quantification of gastrointestinal symptoms with sodium bicarbonate and citrate. Although individual responses may vary, we recommend ingestion of 0.3-0.5 glkg/BM sodium bicarbonate to improve mean power by 1.7% (±2.0%) in high-intensity races of short duration. ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR

Effects of variation in wool fiber curvature and yarn hairiness on sensorial assessment of knitted fabrics

Previous investigations have shown that prickle discomfort sensations of wool fabrics are primarily determined by the mean fiber diameter of the wool. It is also known that differences in wool fiber curvature (crimp) affect softness of handle of greasy wool and of wool textiles. In a replicated experiment, we investigated if wearers could detect the effect of using 17 µm superfine wool of low (74°/mm) or high (114°/mm) fiber curvature, and when the wools were blended with 17 µm cashmere (fiber curvature 49°/mm) in differing proportions, on four comfort sensations. Eight single jersey knitted fabrics were assessed under a controlled protocol using forearm sleeves made of the test fabric and a control fabric. Data (37 sensorial assessments of high curvature wool fabrics; 38 sensorial assessments of low curvature wool fabrics) were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis (restricted maximum likelihood), which included fixed effects for wool type and blend ratio and a random effect for participant. The use of a control sleeve fabric reduced variance due to participant effects by providing an anchor for each sensation over time. Wool fiber curvature affected participant assessment of breathability, comfort, feel after exercise (damp/dry) and skin feel (prickly/soft), with preferred values associated with high curvature (crimp) superfine wool. Increasing the proportion of cashmere in fabrics increased skin feel (better assessed softness). Skin feel was strongly associated with the evaluation of the fabrics by the Wool ComfortMeter and with increasing hairiness of yarns.

A factor analytical method to interactive effects dynamic panel models with or without unit root

In a recent study, Bai (Fixed-Effects Dynamic Panel Models, A Factor Analytical Method. Econometrica 81, 285-314, 2013a) proposes a new factor analytic (FA) method to the estimation of dynamic panel data models, which has the unique and very useful property that it is completely bias-free. However, while certainly appealing, it is restricted to fixed effects models without a unit root. In many situations of practical relevance this is a rather restrictive consideration. The purpose of the current study is therefore to extend the FA approach to cover models with multiple interactive effects and a possible unit root.

The effects of tax incentives for small firms on employment levels

This paper will examine the effects of tax incentives for small businesses on employment level evaluating a program with this purpose implemented in Brazil in the 1990s. We first develop a theoretical framework which guides both the de nition of the parameters of interest and their identi cation. Selection problems both into the treatment group and into the data sample are tackled by combining fixed effects methods and regression discontinuity design on alternative sub-samples of a longitudinal database of manufacturing firms. The results show that on the one hand the size composition of the treated fi rms may be changed due to the survival of some smaller firms that would have exited had it not been eligible to the program. On the other hand, the treated firms who do not depend on the program to survive do employ more workers.

The effects of adult literacy on earnings and employment

This paper provides evidence of the effects of adult literacy on individuals’ income and employability in Brazil based on information obtained from the monthly employment survey (PME). The OLS results indicate that after controlling for observable characteristics, there is a 21.25% increase in wages for individuals who become literate; however, there is no significant impact on employability. Moreover, the findings show an 8.1% increase in the probability of being employed in the formal sector. We also explore the longitudinal structure of the dataset to control for unobservable fixed characteristics of individuals. The fixed-effects estimators show smaller effects compared to the OLS estimators. We find that literacy has a 4.4% effect on wages and a 4.3% impact on the probability of being formally employed. The effects are significantly different from zero.

Genetic and environmental effects on age at first farrowing in sows in southeastern Brazil

We evaluated genetic and environmental factors affecting age at first farrowing of sows in the Brazilian southeast. For this purpose, 466 observations regarding the age at first farrowing were made for Dalland-C40 (c) animals belonging to two herds. The effects of the environmental factors on this trait were assessed by means of a model that included, as random effects, the influence of the sow's father and mother and, as fixed effects, the influence the year of birth, the herd and the birth season, along with the covariable litter size at birth. The variance components were estimated using the derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood method. The estimated mean was 354.8 +/- 25.87 days, with a coefficient of variation of 7.29%. Significant effects on the trait were observed for the herd, the year and the season of birth; but a linear effect of litter size at birth on the age at first farrowing was not observed. The boar did not significantly contribute to the variation occurring among the sows, whereas the sow's mother caused significant variation. The heritability estimate for the age at first farrowing was 0.44 +/- 0.15, which is considered high. We concluded that herd effect and year and season of birth should be taken into consideration for an accurate genetic comparison; consequently, the animals should be joined into contemporary groups.

Effects of sire breed-grazing system and environmental parameters on the behaviour of beef calves just after birth

Effects of sire breed-grazing system and environmental factors on the first activities of high grade Nellore and crossbred Canchim x Nellore, Angus x Nellore, and Simmental x Nellore calves raised in intensive production systems and high grade Nellore calves raised in an extensive production system, after birth, were studied. During 2 years, 185 calves were observed from birth until the end of first suckling, and the following variables were estimated: duration of maternal attention (cow to calf) during the first 15 min after calving, latency to first attempt to stand up, latency to stand up, latency to first suckling, duration of first suckling and the interval from standing to suckling. Data were analyzed by least squares methods, with models that included fixed effects of year and time of the year of birth (March-April (early autumn) and May-June (late autumn)), sire breed-grazing system (Sy), sex of calf (Se), category of cow (primiparous and pluriparous), time of birth, Sy x Se, year x Sy and year x time of the year interactions and the covariates weight of calf, rainfall, air temperature and relative humidity in the day of birth. Calves born from 6:00 to 8:00 h presented the longest latencies to first stand up (40.3 +/- 5.1 min) and the shortest occur from 14:00 to 16:00 h (15.8 +/- 2.7 min) (P < 0.01). Primiparous cows provided longer attention toward the calf in the first 15 min after birth than pluriparous cows (13.0 +/- 0.7 min versus 11.1 +/- 0.5 min; P < 0.05). This attention was also shorter in earlier autumn (11.0 +/- 0.5 min) and longer in late autumn (13.1 +/- 0.8 min) (P < 0.05). Relative to sire breed-grazing system, Nellore calves raised intensively did take longer to stand and to suckle after birth as compared to crossbred calves also raised intensively (P < 0.01). However, grazing system did not affect (P > 0.05) any behaviour variable studied. As regard to sex differences, female calves did take less (P < 0.01) time to suckle after standing than male calves. Results showed that even purebred or crossbred Bos indicus calves in subtropical environmental need extra care when born on rainy days, especially during the first hours of the day. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic and environmental effects over milk production of buffalo cows in Brazil

The objective of this paper was to evaluate the relevance of environmental and genetics effects on milk production of buffalo cows in Brazil. The data were based on the Buffalo Genetic Improvement Program - PROMEBUL, using information of 1,911 cows (107 Jafarabadi, 101 Mediterranean, 1,056 Mu/Tab and 647 crossbred females) with parturition between 1982 and 2003. The mathematic model for evaluating milk production included the fixed effects of herd, parturition year (1982 to 2003) and month (January to December), calf's sex (male or female), genetic group (Jafarabadi, Mediterranean, Murrah, and crossbreed), number of milking (one or two), lactation order (1 to 12) and duration of lactation (as a linear effect). The mean milk production in herds was 1,590.36 +/- 609.25 kg. All sources of variation were significant (P<0.05) for the studied characteristics, except calf's sex. The mean milk production per genetic group was 1,651.4; 1,592.2; 1,578.3 and 1,135.5 kg, for Murrah, Mediterranean, Crossbred and Jafarabadi, respectively. The duration of lactation was the most important source of variation over milk production, followed by the year of parturition, herd, parturition order, genetic group and month of parturition.

Variances of direct genetic effects, maternal genetic effects, and cytoplasmic inheritance effects for milk yield, fat yield, and fat percentage

Milk yield, fat yield, and fat percentage during the first three lactations were studied using New York Holsteins that were milked twice daily over a 305-d, mature equivalent lactation. Those data were used to estimate variances from direct and maternal genetic effects, cytoplasmic effects, sire by herd interaction, and cow permanent environmental effects. Cytoplasmic line was traced to the last female ancestor using DHI records from 1950 through 1991. Records were 138,869 lactations of 68,063 cows calving from 1980 through 1991. Ten random samples were based on herd code. Samples averaged 4926 dams and 2026 cytoplasmic lines. Model also included herd-year-seasons as fixed effects and genetic covariance for direct-maternal effects. Mean estimates of the effects of maternal genetic variances and direct-maternal covariances, as fractions of phenotypic variances, were 0.008 and 0.007 for milk yield, 0.010 and 0.010 for fat yield, and 0.006 and 0.025 for fat percentage, respectively. Average fractions of variance from cytoplasmic line were 0.011, 0.008, and 0.009 for milk yield, fat yield, and fat percentage. Removal of maternal genetic effects and covariance for maternal direct effects from the model increased the fraction of direct genetic variance by 0.014, 0.021, and 0.046 for milk yield, fat yield, and fat percentage; little change in the fraction was due to cytoplasmic line. Exclusion of cytoplasmic effects from the model increased the ratio of additive direct genetic variance to phenotypic variance by less than 2%. Similarly, when sire by herd interaction was excluded, the ratio of direct genetic variance to phenotypic variance increased 1% or less.