Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Business models for Finnish biobanks

This study concentrates on developing a suitable business model for Finnish biobanks, with particular emphasis on value creation to stakeholders. The sub-objective of this thesis are to map the commercial possibilities of biobanks and potential barriers for business development. The study approaches the subject from the biobanks’ as well as the stakeholders’ point of view, integrating their hopes and needs considering current and future co-operation into the findings. In 2013 the Biobank Act came into effect, after which six biobanks have been established and several other pending biobank projects are in process. There is relatively little research in regard to the commercial opportunities of this newcomer of the biomedical industry, and particularly in the Finnish markets. Therefore, the aim of this study is to partially fill the research gap of the commercial potential of biobanks and particularly outline the problematic elements in developing business. The theoretical framework consists of a few select theories, which depict business modeling and value creation of organizations. The theories are combined to form a synthesis, which best adapts to biobanks, and acts as a backbone for interviews. The empirical part of the study was conducted mainly by seven face-to-face interviews, and complemented by two phone interviews and an e-mail questionnaire with four responses. The findings consist mainly of the participants’ reflections on the potential products and services enabled by consumer genomics, as well as perceptions on different obstacles for biobanks’ business development. The nature of the study is tentative, as biobanks are relatively new organizations in Finland, and their operation models and activities are still molding. The aim is to bring to surface the hopes and concerns of biobanks’ representatives, as well as the representatives of stakeholders, in order to transparently discuss the current situation and suggestions for further development. The study concludes that in principle, the interviewees’ agree on the need for development in order not to waste the potential of biobanks; regardless, the participants emphasize different aspects and subsequently lean on differing methods.

Transfer of patients from health care centres to special care services:analysis of travel distances in Nordic countries

Objectives: This paper highlights the importance of analysing patient transportation in Nordic circumpolar areas. The research questions we asked are as follows: How many Finnish patients have been transferred to special care intra-country and inter-country in 2009? Does it make any difference to health care policymakers if patients are transferred inter-country? Study design: We analysed the differences in distances from health care centres to special care services within Finland, Sweden and Norway and considered the health care policy implica tions. Methods: An analysis of the time required to drive between service providers using the "Google distance meter" (http://maps.google.com/); conducting interviews with key Finnish stakeholders; and undertaking a quantitative analyses of referral data from the Lapland Hospital District. Results: Finnish patients are generally not transferred for health care services across national borders even if the distances are shorter. Conclusion: Finnish patients have limited access to health care services in circumpolar are as across the Nordic countries for 2 reasons. First, health professionals in Norway and Sweden do not speak Finnish, which presents a language problem. Second, The Social Insurance Institution of Finland does not cover the expenditures of travel or the costs of medicine. In addition, it seems that in circumpolar areas the density of Finnish service providers is greater than Swedish ones, causing many Swedish citizens to transfer to Finnish health care providers every year. However, future research is needed to determine the precise reasons for this.

Long-Term Preservation of the Finnish Web Archive

Presentation at the IIPC General Assembly, Reykjavik, 12 April, 2016

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

Professional service productization and its implications to knowledge transfer in internationalization processes –Case: Company X in Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian markets

As a result of globalization, two thirds of the world’s business takes place nowadays in the service sector. In line, professional service firms are growing their share of the global service production. However, saturation of the professional service sector has forced professional service firms to search for more heuristic ways to conduct business in the international markets. By leveraging effectively the firm’s professionals, a professional service firm can lower its costs to clients and simultaneously generate additional value for the company and thus gain competitive advantage. Even though the academic field has shown growing interest towards services for decades, the fields of service productization and service internationalization are heavily understudied even today. Hence, the objective of this study was to contribute to the research on professional service internationalization and productization. The study concentrated on examining the impact that productization has on knowledge sharing and leveraging in professional service firms operating internationally. The research question focused on examining what implications productization has on knowledge transfer and leveraging during professional service internationalization by leaning on the existing research and on an empirical research. The empirical research was conducted as a single case study within a professional service firm operating in debt-related administrative service business. The case company is one of the leading operators in its field of business and therefore offered a fruitful environment to observe and analyze the topics in question. Additionally, the case company has a strong international presence and a large scale of operations in the selected markets, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Based on the previous literature and on the empirical research, this study found that for professional service firms to efficiently utilize individual, tacit knowledge, in its internationalization processes, it must be shared with the whole organization. By exploiting productization as a knowledge leveraging mechanism, a PSF can apply and transfer knowledge profoundly during its internationalization processes that would otherwise be difficult to tap into. Productization might not be sufficient alone, but by complementing it with a favorable organizational structure and culture, and by encouraging open communication, a PSF may take advantage of the whole potential that productization has to offer.

Digital Transformation of Municipal Services in Finland

Digitalization has been widely adopted by private organizations of all sizes. As customers we are starting to expect a certain level of digital services from businesses and these expectations are evolving to consider the public sector services as well. Moreover, the Finnish municipalities are under pressure to cut costs and make their operation more efficient. This research aims in exploring the field of municipal digitalization in Finland with three main questions to answer: what are the motivations for municipalities for digital service transformation, what the main benefits of this transformation are and what are the challenges for the transformation. The research starts with examining the characteristics of municipal operation and reviewing some of the relevant digital service opportunities. In the empirical part of the research, 11 professionals related to the municipal field were interviewed using a semi-structured interview design. These interviewees were chosen from three important groups for the change: the service provider, municipal administration and municipal employees. The data gained from the interviews was first summarized according to the main topics chosen from the literature and then reflected on the digital services opportunities presented in the research. The motivations discovered in both the service provider and the city of Porvoo interviews were: tightening resources combined with increasing expectations, transparent structuring of information, supporting the shift into mobile and providing new channels for customers to participate. The benefits discovered in all groups were: efficiency, customer experience, transparent structuring of information, reducing manual input and responding to customer needs in service development. The challenges perceived by multiple groups were: change resistance, innovating new with no best practices and defining the scope and new operation model. The results of this research suggest that even with some challenges along the way, digitalization is a likely future for the Finnish public sector. The business case for the transformation is becoming increasingly evident on both municipal- and governmental levels.

Internationalization of IT company: Case study of a Finnish MOOC platform

The interest to small and media size enterprises’ (SMEs) internationalization process is increasing with a growth of SMEs’ contribution to GDP. Internet gives an opportunity to provide variety of services online and reach market niche worldwide. The overlapping of SMEs’ internationalization and online services is the main issue of the research. The most SMEs internationalize according to intuitive decisions of CEO of the company and lose limited resources to worthless attempts. The purpose of this research is to define effective approaches to online service internationalization and selection of the first international market. The research represents single holistic case study of local massive open online courses (MOOCs) platform going global. It considers internationalization costs and internationalization theories applicable to online services. The research includes preliminary screening of the markets and in-depth analysis based on macro parameters of the market and specific characteristics of the customers and expert evaluation of the results. The specific issues as GILT (Globalization, Internationalization, Localization and Translation) approach and Internet-enabled internationalization are considered. The research results include recommendations on international market selection methodology for online services and for effective internationalization strategy development.

[access To Basic Health Services And Associated Factors: A Population-based Study].

This study sought to identify factors involved in access to the services of a basic health unit. It is a cross-sectional, population-based study involving 101 randomly-selected families residing in the area covered by the health unit. An adult resident of each household was interviewed. The response variable was whether or not the resident frequented the health unit if he/she or anyone in the family required assistance to resolve a health issue. The independent variables investigated were service provision aspects, demographic and socio-economic characteristics, individual habits, morbidities and use of the health unit. In addition to descriptive and univariate analysis, logistic regression was applied in the multivariate analysis. The results show that access to the basic health unit is associated with the treatment received previously (OR = 3,224) with accessibility (OR = 0,146) and micro-area of residence (OR = 10,918). These findings suggest that access is related to the impressions created by the care received at the health unit and is based on experiences with the service, but can also be strongly modulated by individual aspects and factors related to the territory.

Inequalities in access and utilization of dental services: a cross-sectional study in an area covered by the Family Health Strategy

This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the presence of inequalities in the access and use of dental services for people living in the coverage area of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in Ponta Grossa, Paraná State, Brazil, and to assess individual determinants related to them. The sample consisted of 747 individuals who answered a pre-tested questionnaire. Data analysis was performed by chi-square test and Poisson regression analysis, obtaining explanatory models for recent use and, by limiting the analysis to those who sought dental care, for effective access. Results showed that 41% of the sample had recent dental visits. The lowest visit rates were observed among preschoolers and elderly people. The subjects who most identified the FHS as a regular source of dental care were children. Besides age, better socioeconomic conditions and the presence of a regular source of dental care were positively associated to recent dental visits. We identified inequalities in use and access to dental care, reinforcing the need to promote incentives to improve access for underserved populations.

Influence of self-perceived oral health and socioeconomic predictors on the utilization of dental care services by schoolchildren

The influence of socioeconomic factors and self-rated oral health on children's dental health assistance was assessed. This study followed a cross-sectional design, with a multistage random sample of 792 12-year-old schoolchildren from Santa Maria, a city in southern Brazil. A dental examination provided information on the prevalence of dental caries (DMFT index). Data about the use of dental service, socioeconomic status, and self-perceived oral health were collected by means of structured interviews. These associations were assessed using Poisson regression models (prevalence ratio; 95% confidence interval). The prevalence of regular use of dental service was 47.8%. Children from low socioeconomic backgrounds and those who rated their oral health as "poor" used the service less frequently. The distribution of the kind of oral healthcare assistance used (public/private) varied across socioeconomic groups. The better-off children were less likely to have used the public service. Clinical, socioeconomic, and psychosocial factors were strong predictors for the utilization of dental care services by schoolchildren.

Health services performance for TB treatment in Brazil: a cross-sectional study

Background: Researches to evaluate Primary Health Care performance in TB control in Brazil show that different cities aggregate local specificities in the dynamics of coping with the disease. This study aims to evaluate health services' performance in TB treatment in cities across different Brazilian regions. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in five cities that are considered priorities for TB control in Brazil: Itaborai (ITA), Ribeirao Preto (RP) and Sao Jose do Rio Preto (SJRP) in the Southeast; Campina Grande (CG) and Feira de Santana (FS) in the Northeast. Data were collected through interviews with 514 TB patients under treatment in 2007, using the Primary Care Assessment Tool adapted for TB care in Brazil. Indicators were constructed based on the mean response scores (Likert scale) and compared among the study sites. Results: ""Access to treatment"" was evaluated as satisfactory in the Southeast and regular in the Northeast, which displayed poor results on 'home visits' and 'distance between treatment site and patient's house'. ""Bond"" was assessed as satisfactory in all cities, with a slightly better performance in RP and SJRP. ""Range of services"" was rated as regular, with better performance of southeastern cities. 'Health education', 'DOT' and 'food vouchers' were less offered in the Northeast. ""Coordination"" was evaluated as satisfactory in all cities. ""Family focus"" was evaluated as satisfactory in RP and SJRP, and regular in the others. 'Professional asking patient's family about other health problems' was evaluated as unsatisfactory, except in RP. Conclusions: Two types of obstacles are faced for health service performance in TB treatment in the cities under analysis, mainly in the Northeast. The first is structural and derives from difficulties to access health services and actions. The second is organizational and derives from the way health technologies and services are distributed and integrated. Incentives to improve care organization and management practices, aimed at the integration of primary, secondary and tertiary services, can contribute towards a better performance of health services in TB treatment.

The variability and predictors of quality of AIDS care services in Brazil

Background: Since establishing universal free access to antiretroviral therapy in 1996, the Brazilian Health System has increased the number of centers providing HIV/AIDS outpatient care from 33 to 540. There had been no formal monitoring of the quality of these services until a survey of 336 AIDS health centers across 7 Brazilian states was undertaken in 2002. Managers of the services were asked to assess their clinics according to parameters of service inputs and service delivery processes. This report analyzes the survey results and identifies predictors of the overall quality of service delivery. Methods: The survey involved completion of a multiple-choice questionnaire comprising 107 parameters of service inputs and processes of delivering care, with responses assessed according to their likely impact on service quality using a 3-point scale. K-means clustering was used to group these services according to their scored responses. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of high service quality. Results: The questionnaire was completed by 95.8% (322) of the managers of the sites surveyed. Most sites scored about 50% of the benchmark expectation. K-means clustering analysis identified four quality levels within which services could be grouped: 76 services (24%) were classed as level 1 (best), 53 (16%) as level 2 (medium), 113 (35%) as level 3 (poor), and 80 (25%) as level 4 (very poor). Parameters of service delivery processes were more important than those relating to service inputs for determining the quality classification. Predictors of quality services included larger care sites, specialization for HIV/AIDS, and location within large municipalities. Conclusion: The survey demonstrated highly variable levels of HIV/AIDS service quality across the sites. Many sites were found to have deficiencies in the processes of service delivery processes that could benefit from quality improvement initiatives. These findings could have implications for how HIV/AIDS services are planned in Brazil to achieve quality standards, such as for where service sites should be located, their size and staffing requirements. A set of service delivery indicators has been identified that could be used for routine monitoring of HIV/AIDS service delivery for HIV/AIDS in Brazil (and potentially in other similar settings).