Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Proposta de integração das redes de comunicação da COSERN como uma solução de contigêncvia em caso de falhas nos enlaces do backbone de automação

T'his dissertation proposes alternative models to allow the interconnectioin of the data communication networks of COSERN Companhia Energética do Rio Grande do Norte. These networks comprise the oorporative data network, based on TCP/IP architecture, and the automation system linking remote electric energy distribution substations to the main Operatin Centre, based on digital radio links and using the IEC 60870-5-101 protoco1s. The envisaged interconnection aims to provide automation data originated from substations with a contingent route to the Operation Center, in moments of failure or maintenance of the digital radio links. Among the presented models, the one chosen for development consists of a computational prototype based on a standard personal computer, working under LINUX operational system and running na application, developesd in C language, wich functions as a Gateway between the protocols of the TCP/IP stack and the IEC 60870-5-101 suite. So, it is described this model analysis, implementation and tests of functionality and performance. During the test phase it was basically verified the delay introduced by the TCP/IP network when transporting automation data, in order to guarantee that it was cionsistent with the time periods present on the automation network. Besides , additional modules are suggested to the prototype, in order to handle other issues such as security and prioriz\ation of the automation system data, whenever they are travesing the TCP/IP network. Finally, a study hás been done aiming to integrate, in more complete way, the two considered networks. It uses IP platform as a solution of convergence to the communication subsystem of na unified network, as the most recente market tendencies for supervisory and other automation systems indicate

Comportamento do mercado de terras no Brasil

Incluye Bibliografía

Prospecção de novos negócios numa indústria de autopeças: diagnóstico de falhas e sugestões de ferramentas para melhoria

The growth and expansion in auto parts market are directly related to the ability of a company to innovate and gain new customers, increasing its portfolio of customers and products. For this purpose the process of prospecting for new business has become a key process in companies seeking this goal, which requires teams and structures dedicated to it. Besides counting on available resources to carry out prospecting, it is necessary to properly manage the process as a whole, whose main result is a business proposal, which may lead to closer relations with the potential client and the activation of a new business. Process failures and difficulties to formulate a commercial proposal lead to documents produced without the quality needed that makes it harder to obtain new business. The objective of this study is to evaluate the process of new businesses quotation in the auto parts industry and indicate opportunities for improving this process. This goal is achieved by mapping the current process, from the diagnosis of problems and the indication of tools that can prevent or minimize the problems diagnosed. The information supporting this study were obtained by the bibliographical research, participant observation of the process, unstructured interviews with some of the involved people in the process and prospecting tools that can improve it. It results the mapping of new business quotation process, the points indicated as failures and difficulties in the process and the appointment of project management tools that can bring improvements to the new business proposals and pointing the moment for your application in the process

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda linha do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda linha do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Mercado

Poem

Análisis de la exportación de manzanas y peras en el mercado externo en la última década

Resumen: El propósito general de este trabajo, es resumir para el debate un análisis conceptual del Mercado de Exportación de los frutos de pepita (Manzana y Pera) en el Mercado Internacional en la última década, destacar el lugar que ocupa el complejo frutícola en la economía argentina y su rol para sostener los mercados externos actualmente abastecidos. La estructura del presente trabajo tiene como finalidad mostrar las reglamentaciones existentes para la comercialización de las frutas pomáceas en el mercado interno y externo, además de anexos que complementan y soportan dicho trabajo, siendo de gran interés para el lector. Finalizando el presente trabajo, con conclusiones en el desarrollo de la Evolución, Tendencia, Expectativas y Desafíos frutícolas para la próxima década.

Tres imágenes del mercado

Resumen: El artículo invita a la reflexión respecto de la dicotomía entre economía y sociedad. Para esto, presenta una descripción de diferentes imágenes del mercado. La primera, representada por un mercado como espacio total, descripto a partir de la ciudad de Chicago y mediante los postulados de Becker. Luego, la segunda imagen remite a las tensiones entre mercado y sociedad, a través de las ideas de desarrolladas por Coraggio. Finalmente, el autor concluye presentando la imagen del mercado como un espacio humano y civil, presentando las consideraciones desarrolladas por Zamagni. Así, el autor deja planteado el interrogante acerca de cuál de las tres imágenes del mercado predominará en la agenda de las decisiones políticas, de la realidad económica y social y, en el imaginario simbólico de nuestra cultura.

La paradoja de la reforma de mercado exitosa en América Latina : fortalecer el rol del Estado

Resumen: En este artículo la autora compara los efectos de las reformas de mercado realizadas a fines del siglo pasado en la Argentina con los de México y Chile. En su opinión, en el caso argentino, las reformas de mercado estuvieron marcadas por serias dificultades debido al contexto político-institucional en que se desarrollaron, caracterizado por la falta de una estrategia estatal con orientación exportadora debida a la penetración patrimonialista del Estado por parte de intereses empresariales y sindicales.

Potencial de mercado de la papa en Nicaragua

El estudio fue realizado el mes de julio del 2008, con el propósito de analizar información clave de tipo comercial específicamente de ocho (8) mercados municipales del país; para que productores y demás interesados dispongan de información de mercado para la toma de decisiones económico-social en el rubro papa. Para el estudio se utilizó información escrita de fuentes del sector agrario, además de fuentes directas como informantes claves de ocho mercados municipales de un universo de 292 puestos de venta, de los cuales se seleccionaron 131 puestos como muestra de estudio. Las variables del estudio versaron sobre oferta y demanda, proyección y tipo de demanda, calidad y ventanas de mercado en diferentes periodos del año. Los resultados reflejan que la producción de papas frescas en Nicaragua es deficitaria en comparación a la demanda global, considerando un percapita de 8 kilogramos (17.6 libras) en el consumo anual. Esto significa que el país depende de las importaciones que oscilan en un 40% y que provienen principalmente del área Centro Americana para satisfacer el déficit que cada año se manifiesta. Se proyectó la demanda insatisfecha a partir del año 2010 al 2020 considerando la producción local, el tipo de demanda, consumo percapita y viabilidad comercial; y los resultados marcan una tendencia decreciente respecto a las importaciones vía sustitución de importaciones con producción nacional. Las tendencias indican que dado la demanda y lo atractivo desde el punto de vista económico del rubro, los productores locales se ven estimulados en el futuro a incrementar el número de áreas y rendimientos por unidad producida,reduciendo la dependencia del exterior. Nicaragua es el país en Centro América con mayor cantidad de tierras aptas para la agricultura en diferentes rubros. Sin embargo, la producción de papas registra los menores rendimientos por área y países debido a la baja calidad de la semilla, inadecuados métodos y técnicas de cultivo, de control de plagas y enfermedades y manejo post cosecha. Las ventanas de mercado por escasez del producto ocurren en los meses de mayo a julio y de octubre a diciembre. Sobre las características de la papa nacional, los entrevistados resaltan la resistencia a la manipulación, el rendimiento y la duración o vida útil del producto. Entre los defectos mencionaron lo sucio, y pequeño del producto. La opinión sobre las características de la papa importada, está enfocada a la limpieza, buen tamaño y selección del producto. Entre los aspectos negativos de la papa importada se resalta la poca resistencia a la manipulación y sabor insípido del producto. Sobre la base de las características de la nacional y extranjera; el reto es producir una papa que reúna requisitos de resistencia, rendimiento, solides (nicaragüense) y buen tamaño (importada). En Nicaragua existen áreas agrícolas aptas para el rubro (Estelí, Matagalpa, Jinotega), poca competencia en la producción interna, rubro atractivo como negocio por su aceptable rentabilidad y una tendencias a incrementar el consumo percapita por su valor nutritivo e importancia en la seguridad alimentaria nacional.

Mercado de carne vacuna en Argentina : estado de situación y perspectivas

Resumen: Finalmente, el pronóstico sobre la profundización de la tensión entre oferta y demanda total (interna + externa) de carne que hiciéramos a mediados de 2005, ya es una realidad más que palpable. En este trabajo planteamos el conflicto ganadero y lo ponemos en perspectiva, sintetizando los factores que lo desencadenaron y las respuestas que fue ensayando el gobierno a las señales enviadas por el mercado. Concluimos indicando que el principal desafío pasa por armonizar los intereses del gobierno nacional con la realidad que enfrenta la cadena de valor. Existen razones económicas, políticas y sociales, que explican la intención de las autoridades nacionales de mantener estable el precio de la carne. Pero, por valiosas que resulten estas razones, no pueden ignorar la cuestión ganadera. Deben contemplarse la realidad sectorial y las consecuencias de afectarla seriamente con políticas que limiten o, peor aún, anulen su rentabilidad.

Desempleo y políticas del mercado laboral. Análisis internacional de políticas públicas : algunos casos exitosos

Resumen: En los últimos quince años, mientras la mayoría de los países del mundo sufrieron un aumento o estabilidad en el nivel de desempleo, algunos países han logrado mejorar significativamente su situación. Este trabajo lleva a cabo una revisión de la literatura con respecto a las políticas de empleo y del mercado laboral de esos países con el objetivo de extraer algunas lecciones de estas ‘buenas prácticas’. Cabe aclarar que el objetivo no consiste en recomendar políticas específicas para Argentina sino simplemente destacar la relevancia de algunas características comunes que presentan estos casos exitosos. Los países exitosos, además de experimentar una buena performance en términos de crecimiento económico, implementaron un conjunto de políticas que van desde políticas del mercado laboral activas a un amplio sistema de seguridad social, mayor flexibilidad laboral y políticas salariales moderadas.