Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Analysis of performance of a hot gas injection thrust vector control system

The complex three-dimensional flowfield produced by secondary injection of hot gases in a rocket nozzle for thrust vector control is analyzed by solving unsteady three-dimensional Euler equations with appropriate boundary conditions. Various system performance parameters like secondary jet amplification factor and axial thrust augmentation are deduced by integrating the nozzle wall pressure distributions obtained as part of the flowfield solution and compared with measurements taken in actual static tests. The agreement is good within the practical range of secondary injectant flow rates for thrust vector control applications.

MPI-based parallel synchronous vector evaluated particle swarm optimization for multi-objective design optimization of composite structures

This paper presents a decentralized/peer-to-peer architecture-based parallel version of the vector evaluated particle swarm optimization (VEPSO) algorithm for multi-objective design optimization of laminated composite plates using message passing interface (MPI). The design optimization of laminated composite plates being a combinatorially explosive constrained non-linear optimization problem (CNOP), with many design variables and a vast solution space, warrants the use of non-parametric and heuristic optimization algorithms like PSO. Optimization requires minimizing both the weight and cost of these composite plates, simultaneously, which renders the problem multi-objective. Hence VEPSO, a multi-objective variant of the PSO algorithm, is used. Despite the use of such a heuristic, the application problem, being computationally intensive, suffers from long execution times due to sequential computation. Hence, a parallel version of the PSO algorithm for the problem has been developed to run on several nodes of an IBM P720 cluster. The proposed parallel algorithm, using MPI's collective communication directives, establishes a peer-to-peer relationship between the constituent parallel processes, deviating from the more common master-slave approach, in achieving reduction of computation time by factor of up to 10. Finally we show the effectiveness of the proposed parallel algorithm by comparing it with a serial implementation of VEPSO and a parallel implementation of the vector evaluated genetic algorithm (VEGA) for the same design problem. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multilevel dodecagonal space-vector generation for induction motor drives by cascading three-level and two-level inverters

This study proposes an inverter circuit topology capable of generating multilevel dodecagonal (12-sided polygon) voltage space vectors by the cascaded connection of two-level and three-level inverters. By the proper selection of DC-link voltages and resultant switching states for the inverters, voltage space vectors whose tips lie on three concentric dodecagons, are obtained. A rectifier circuit for the inverter is also proposed, which significantly improves the power factor. The topology offers advantages such as the complete elimination of the fifth and seventh harmonics in phase voltages and an extension of the linear modulation range. In this study, a simple method for the calculation of pulse width modulation timing was presented along with extensive simulation and experimental results in order to validate the proposed concept.

A novel adeno-associated virus serotype (AAV)-8 capsid mutant improves human coagulation factor IX expression in vivo

Recombinant AAV-8 vectors have shown significant promise for hepatic gene therapy of hemophilia B. However, the theme of AAV vector dose dependent immunotoxicity seen with AAV2 vectors earlier seem to re-emerge with AAV8 vectors as well. It is therefore important to develop novel AAV8 vectors that provide enhanced gene expression at significantly less vector doses. We hypothesized that AAV8 during its intracellular trafficking, are targeted for destruction in the cytoplasm by the host-cellular kinase/ubiquitination/proteasomal degradation machinery and modification of specific serine/threonine kinase or ubiquitination targets on AAV8 capsid (Fig.1A) may improve its transduction efficiency. To test this, point mutations at specific serine (S)/threonine (T) > alanine (A) or lysine (K)>arginine (R) residues were generated on AAV8 capsid. scAAV8-EGFP vectors containing the wild-type (WT) and each one of the 5 S/T/K-mutant(S276A, S501A, S671A, T251A and K137R) capsids were evaluated for their liver transduction efficiency at a dose of 5 X 1010 vgs/ animal in C57BL/6 mice in vivo. The best performing mutant was found to be the K137R vector in terms of either the gene expression (46-fold) or the vector copy numbers in the hepatocytes (22-fold) compared to WT-AAV8 (Fig.1B). The K137R-AAV8 vector that showed significantly decreased ubiquitination of the viral capsid had reduced activation of markers of innate immune response [IL-6, IL-12, tumor necrosis factor α, Kupffer cells and TLR-9]. In addition, animals injected with the K137R mutant also demonstrated decreased (2-fold) levels of cross-neutralizing antibodies when compared to animals that received the WT-AAV8 vector. To study further the utility of the novel AAV8-K137R mutant in a therapeutic setting, we delivered human coagulation factor IX (h.FIX) under the control of liver specific promoters (LP1 or hAAT) at two different doses (2.5x10^10 and 1x10^11 vgs per mouse) in 8-12 weeks old male C57BL/6 mice. As can be seen in Fig.1C/D, the circulating levels of h.FIX were higher in all the K137R-AAV8 treated groups as compared to the WT-AAV8 treated groups either at 2 weeks (62% vs 37% for hAAT constructs and 47% vs 21% for LP1 constructs) or 4 weeks (78% vs 56% for hAAT constructs and 64% vs 30% for LP1 constructs) post hepatic gene transfer. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of the use of this novel vector for potential gene therapy of hemophilia B.

Harmonic analysis of DC capacitor current in sinusoidal and space-vector modulated neutral-point-clamped inverters

The voltage ripple and power loss in the DC-capacitor of a voltage source inverter depend on the harmonic currents flowing through the capacitor. This paper presents a double Fourier series based analysis of the harmonic contents of the DC capacitor current in a three-level neutral-point clamped (NPC) inverter, modulated with sine-triangle pulse-width modulation (SPWM) or conventional space vector pulse-width modulation (CSVPWM) schemes. The analytical results are validated experimentally on a 3-kVA three-level inverter prototype. The capacitor current in an NPC inverter has a periodicity of 120(a similar to) at the fundamental or modulation frequency. Hence, this current contains third-harmonic and triplen-frequency components, apart from switching frequency components. The harmonic components vary with modulation index and power factor for both PWM schemes. The third harmonic current decreases with increase in modulation index and also decreases with increase in power factor in case of both PWM methods. In general, the third harmonic content is higher with SPWM than with CSVPWM at a given operating condition. Also, power loss and voltage ripple in the DC capacitor are estimated for both the schemes using the current harmonic spectrum and equivalent series resistance (ESR) of the capacitor.

Factor analysis based VTS discriminative adaptive training

Vector Taylor Series (VTS) model based compensation is a powerful approach for noise robust speech recognition. An important extension to this approach is VTS adaptive training (VAT), which allows canonical models to be estimated on diverse noise-degraded training data. These canonical model can be estimated using EM-based approaches, allowing simple extensions to discriminative VAT (DVAT). However to ensure a diagonal corrupted speech covariance matrix the Jacobian (loading matrix) relating the noise and clean speech is diagonalised. In this work an approach for yielding optimal diagonal loading matrices based on minimising the expected KL-divergence between the diagonal loading matrix and "correct" distributions is proposed. The performance of DVAT using the standard and optimal diagonalisation was evaluated on both in-car collected data and the Aurora4 task. © 2012 IEEE.

Characterization and expression analysis of TNFR-associated factor 1 (TRAF1) in grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella

TNF receptor associated factor 1 (TRAF1) plays an important role in regulating the TNF signaling and protecting cells from apoptosis. In the present study, a TRAF1 gene has been cloned from grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) by reverse transcription (RT)-PCR and rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE). The full-length cDNA is 2235 bp, including a 250 bp 5' UTR (untranslated region), a 1659 bp open reading frame, and a 326 bp 3'UTR. The polyadenylation signal (AATAAA, AATAA) and one mRNA instability motif (AUUUA) were found followed by a poly (A) tail in the 3'UTR. No signal peptide or transmembrane region has been found in the putative amino acids of grass carp TRAF1 (gcTRAF1). The putative amino acids of gcTRAF1 share 72% identity with the homologue in zebrafish. It is characterized by a zinc finger at the N-terminus and a TRAF domain (contains one TRAF-C and one TRAF-N) at the C-terminus. The identity of the TRAF domain among all the TRAF1 homologues in vertebrates varies from 52% to 58%, while the identities of TRAF-C were almost the same as 70%. The recombinant gcTRAF1 has been constructed successfully and expressed in Escherichia coli by using pET-32a expression vector. The polyclonal antibody for rabbit has been successfully obtained. The expression of gcTRAF1 in different organs was examined by real-time quantitative PCR and Western blotting, respectively. It was widely distributed in heart, head kidney, thymus, brain, gill, liver, spleen, and trunk kidney. This is the first report of TRAF1 homologue molecule found in fish. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular identification and expression analysis of tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 2 in grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella

Tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 2 (TRAF2) is a crucial component of almost the entire tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily signaling pathway. In the present study, a TRAF2 gene has been cloned from grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and rapid amplification of cDNA ends. The full-length cDNA is 3162 bp, including a 60 bp 5' untranslated region (UTR), a 1611 bp open reading frame, and a 1491 bp 3' UTR. The polyadenylation signal (AATAAA) and the mRNA instability motifs (ATTTTA, ATTTA) were followed by a poly(A) tail in the 3' UTR. No signal peptide or transmembrane region has been found in the putative amino acids of grass carp TRAF2 (gcTRAF2). Phylogenetic tree analysis clearly showed that gcTRAF2 is nearest to the TRAF2 gene of goldfish. The identity of gcTRAF2 with its homologs in other vertebrates ranges from 56% to 97%. It is characterized by one RING-type signature at the N-terminus, one zinc finger in the middle part, and one conserved TRAF domain consisting of a C-proximal (TRAF-C) subdomain and a N-proximal (TRAF-N) subdomain. The identity of TRAF-C among all TRAF2 homologs in vertebrates varies from 78% to 97%, whereas the identity of TRAF-N ranges from 56% to 100%. The recombinant gcTRAF2 has been expressed in Escherichia coli using pET-32a expression vector. The rabbit anti-gcTRAF2 polyclonal antibody was obtained. The expression of gcTRAF2 in different organs was examined by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and Western blot analysis. It was widely distributed in heart, head kidney, thymus, brain, gill, liver, spleen, and trunk kidney. This is the first report of a TRAF2 homolog molecule in fish.

Hole Rashba effect and g-factor in InP nanowires

The hole Rashba effect and g-factor in InP nanowires in the presence of electric and magnetic fields which bring spin splitting are investigated theoretically in the framework of eight-band effective-mass envelop function theory, by expanding the lateral wave function in Bessel functions. It is well known that the electron Rashba coefficient increases nearly linearly with the electric field. As the Rashba spin splitting is zero at zero k(z) ( the wave vector along the wire direction), the electron g-factor at k(z) = 0 changes little with the electric field. While we find that as the electric field increases, the hole Rashba coefficient increases at first, then decreases. It is noticed that the hole Rashba coefficient is zero at a critical electric field. The hole g-factor at k(z) = 0 changes obviously with the electric field.

Factor analysis used to peak position optimization and spectral interference correction in inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry

Target transformation factor analysis was used to correct spectral interference in inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-BES) for the determination of rare earth impurities in high purity thulium oxide. Data matrix was constructed with pure and mixture vectors and background vector. A method based on an error evaluation function was proposed to optimize the peak position, so the influence of the peak position shift in spectral scans on the determination was eliminated or reduced. Satisfactory results were obtained using factor analysis and the proposed peak position optimization method.

FACTOR-ANALYSIS SPECTROPHOTOMETRY FOR THE SIMULTANEOUS DETERMINATION OF VALENCE STATES OF METALS

Two M(n+)-2-(5-bromo-2-pyridylazo)-5-diethylaminophenol systems for the simultaneous determination of the valence states of Cr and Fe using factor analysis were studied. (1) At pH 4.0, Cr(III) and Cr(VI) react with the reagent to form stable complexes and a slight difference in the wavelengths of maximum absorption (lambda(max.)) between the two complexes is observed when the sodium lauryl sulfate, which also acts as a solubilizing and sensitizing agent, is added, viz., 590 nm for Cr(III) and 593 nm for Cr(VI) complexes. (2) In the presence of ethanol, both Fe(II) and Fe(III) form 1:2 complexes with the reagent at pH 2.5-3.5 and the lambda(max.) of the Fe(II) and Fe(III) complexes is at 557 and 592 nm, respectively. In the target transformation factor analysis, the K coefficients calculated from the standard mixtures by classical least-squares analysis and a non-zero intercept added to each wavelength are used as the target vector instead of the pure component standards; this can decrease the analysis errors introduced by the interaction between the two species and by deviations from Beer's law.

VEGF gene silencing by cytomegalovirus promoter driven ShRNA expression vector results in vascular development defects in zebrafish

Zebrafish has been generally considered as an excellent model in case of drug screening, disease model establishment, and vertebrate embryonic development study. In this work, the ability of human cytomegalovirus immediate early promoter (CMV promoter)-driven short hairpin RNA (shRNA) expression vector to induce shRNA against VEGF gene in zebrafish was tested, and its effect on vascular development was assed, too. Using RT-qPCR, blood vessel staining, and in situ hybridization, we confirmed certain transcriptional activity and down regulation of gene expression by the vector. In situ hybridization analysis indicated selective inhibition of NRP1 expression in the VEGF gene loss of function model, which might imply in turn that VEGF could not only activate endothelial cells directly but also could contribute to stimulating angiogenesis in vivo by a mechanism that involved up-regulation of its cognate receptor expression in zebrafish. This contributed to a better understanding of molecular mechanisms of cardiovascular development. The system improved the success rate in making inducible knockdown and widened the possibilities for better therapeutic targets in zebrafish.

Expression of human epidermal growth factor gene in cyanobacteria

The human epidermal growth factor (hEGF) is a small single-chain polypeptide of 53 amino acid residues. It can stimulate the proliferation of many cell types, mainly those of epidermal and epithelial tissues both in vivo and in vitro. A vector pRL-hEGF was constructed using plasmids pRL-489 and pUC-hEGF. The synthetic hEGF gene was recombined into the downstream of strong promoter psbA in plasmids pRL-489. Then, the vector was introduced into Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002 and Anabaena sp. PCC 7120 by triparental conjugative transfer. The transformation was confirmed by PCR amplification. The pRL-hEGF is thought to be retained as a plasmid form in the transgenic Anabaena sp. PCC 7120, since it can be recovered. However, it has been integrated into the chromosome of Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002 as there is no duplication origin in the pRL-hEGF in this cyanobacterium. and plasmid cannot be isolated from the Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002 either. The radioimmunoassay (RIA) proved that the hEGF gene has been expressed as the protein existed in these two strains of transgenic cyanobacteria, and the hEGF protein in Anabaena sp. PCC 7002 could be secreted into the medium.

Outer wave number spectrum and statistical distribution of apparent wave number vector

Based on the ray theory and Longuet-Higgins's linear,model of sea waves, the joint distribution of wave envelope and apparent wave number vector is established. From the joint distribution, we define a new concept, namely the outer wave number spectrum, to describe the outer characteristics of ocean waves. The analytical form of the outer wave number spectrum, the probability distributions of the apparent wave number vector and its components are then derived. The outer wave number spectrum is compared with the inner wave number spectrum for the average status of wind-wave development corresponding to a peakness factor P = 3. Discussions on the similarity and difference between the outer wave number spectrum and inner one are also presented in the paper. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.