The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Late-Holocene climate variability and ecosystem responses in Alaska inferred from high-resolution multiproxy sediment analyses at Grizzly Lake

The late-Holocene shift from Picea glauca (white spruce) to Picea mariana (black spruce) forests marked the establishment of modern boreal forests in Alaska. To understand the patterns and drivers of this vegetational change and the associated late-Holocene environmental dynamics, we analyzed radiocarbon-dated sediments from Grizzly Lake for chironomids, diatoms, pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, element composition, particle size, and magnetic properties for the period 4100–1800 cal BP. Chironomid assemblages reveal two episodes of decreased July temperature, at ca. 3300–3150 (ca −1 °C) and 2900–2550 cal BP (ca −2 °C). These episodes coincided with climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric reorganization, and low solar activity. Diatom-inferred lake levels dropped by ca. 5 m at 3200 cal BP, suggesting dry conditions during the period 3200–1800 cal BP. P. glauca declined and P. mariana expanded at ca. 3200 cal BP; this vegetational change was linked to diatom-inferred low lake levels and thus decreased moisture availability. Forest cover declined at 3300–3100, 2800–2500 and 2300–2100 cal BP and soil erosion as inferred from increased values of Al, K, Si, Ti, and Ca intensified, when solar irradiance was low. Plant taxa adapted to disturbance and cold climate (e.g. Alnus viridis, shrub Betula, Epilobium) expanded during these periods of reduced forest cover. This open vegetation type was associated with high fire activity that peaked at 2800 cal BP, when climatic conditions were particularly cold and dry. Forest recovery lagged behind subsequent climate warming (≤+3 °C) by ca. 75–225 years. Our multiproxy data set suggests that P. glauca was dominant under warm-moist climatic conditions, whereas P. mariana prevailed under cold-dry and warm-dry conditions. This pattern implies that climatic warming, as anticipated for this century, may promote P. glauca expansions, if moisture availability will be sufficiently high, while P. mariana may expand under dry conditions, possibly exacerbating climate impacts on the fire regime.

Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carbon cycle

Fire regimes have changed during the Holocene due to changes in climate, vegetation, and in human practices. Here, we hypothesise that changes in fire regime may have affected the global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere through the Holocene. Our data are based on quantitative reconstructions of biomass burning deduced from stratified charcoal records from Europe, and South-, Central- and North America, and Oceania to test the fire-carbon release hypothesis. In Europe the significant increase of fire activity is dated ≈6000 cal. yr ago. In north-eastern North America burning activity was greatest before 7500 years ago, very low between 7500–3000 years, and has been increasing since 3000 years ago. In tropical America, the pattern is more complex and apparently latitudinally zonal. Maximum burning occurred in the southern Amazon basin and in Central America during the middle Holocene, and during the last 2000 years in the northern Amazon basin. In Oceania, biomass burning has decreased since a maximum 5000 years ago. Biomass burning has broadly increased in the Northern and Southern hemispheres throughout the second half of the Holocene associated with changes in climate and human practices. Global fire indices parallel the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Future issues on carbon dynamics relatively to biomass burning are discussed to improve the quantitative reconstructions.

Long-term man–environment interactions in the Bolivian Amazon: 8000 years of vegetation dynamics

Only few studies documenting the vegetation history of the Llanos de Moxos, one of the largest seasonally flooded wetland areas in South America, are available and little is known about the environmental impact of pre-Columbian settlements. We use radiocarbon-dated terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish a sound chronology and palynological analyses to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Lago Rogaguado area. The sedimentary pollen and spore record suggests that wetland and wooded savannah (Cerrado) environments occurred around the lake between 8100 and 5800 cal BP. Fire activity was high during this period and was probably connected to the dry Cerrado environments. The pollen evidence suggests early plant cultivation (Zea mays, Annonaceae and Cucurbitaceae) from 6500 cal BP onwards, which is significantly earlier than hitherto assumed for Amazonia. Gallery forests expanded after 5800 cal BP, when fire activity strongly declined. Forest expansion intensified around 2800 cal BP and continued until 2000 cal BP, when forest cover reached its maximum and fire activity its minimum. The late-Holocene forest expansion to the south and the decrease of fire activity may have resulted from a climatic shift to moister conditions (possibly a shorter dry season). New crops (e.g. Avena-type) or adventive plants (e.g. Rumex acetosella-type) document the impact of European economies after ca. 500 cal BP. Land use intensity remained rather stable over the most recent centuries, arguing against a collapse of settlements in response to the arrival of Europeans, as reconstructed from other Amazonian pollen records.

Reconstruction of Holocene vegetation dynamics at Lac de Bretaye, a high-mountain lake in the Swiss Alps

A deeper understanding of past vegetation dynamics is required to better assess future vegetation responses to global warming in the Alps. Lake sediments from Lac de Bretaye, a small subalpine lake in the Northern Swiss Alps (1780 m a.s.l.), were analysed to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics for the entire Holocene, using pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analyses as main proxies. The results show that timberline reached the lake’s catchment area at around 10,300 cal. BP, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed postglacial afforestation in the Northern Alps. At the same time, thermophilous trees such as Ulmus, Tilia and Acer established in the lowlands and expanded to the altitude of the lake, forming distinctive boreo-nemoral forests with Betula, Pinus cembra and Larix decidua. From about 5000 to 3500 cal. BP, thermophilous trees declined because of increasing human land use, mainly driven by the mass expansion of Picea abies and severe anthropogenic fire activity. From the Bronze Age onwards (c. 4200–2800 cal. BP), grazing indicators and high values for charcoal concentration and influx attest an intensifying human impact, fostering the expansion of Alnus viridis and Picea abies. Hence, biodiversity in alpine meadows increased, whereas forest diversity declined, as can be seen in other regional records. We argue that the anticipated climate change and decreasing human impact in the Alps today will not only lead to an upward movement of timberline with consequent loss of area for grasslands, but also to a disruption of Picea abies forests, which may allow the re-expansion of thermophilous tree species.

Miocene-Pliocene record of Pollen, charcoal and carbon isotopes of plant waxes of ODP Hole 175-1081A

Modern savannah grasslands were established during the late Miocene and Pliocene (8-3 million years ago). In the tropics, grasslands are dominated by grasses that use the C4 photosynthetic pathway, rather than the C3 pathway. The C4 pathway is better adapted to warm, dry and low-CO2 conditions, leading to suggestions that declining atmospheric CO2 levels, increasing aridity and enhanced rainfall seasonality allowed grasses using this pathway to expand during this interval. The role of fire in C4 expansion may have been underestimated. Here we use analyses of pollen, microscopic charcoal and the stable isotopic composition of plant waxes from a marine sediment core off the coast of Namibia to reconstruct the relative timing of changes in plant composition and fire activity for the late Miocene and Pliocene. We find that in southwestern Africa, the expansion of C4 grasses occurred alongside increasing aridity and enhanced fire activity. During further aridification in the Pliocene, the proportion of C4 grasses in the grasslands increased, while the grassland contracted and deserts and semi-deserts expanded. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that ecological disturbance by fire was an essential feedback mechanism leading to the establishment of C4 grasslands in the Miocene and Pliocene.

High-resolution multi-proxy record of the last glacial period from Lake Van, eastern Anatolian high plateau, Turkey

Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca/K ratio and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~75-15 ka BP). The climate within the last glacial was cold and dry, with low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~28-14.5 ka BP) dominated by the highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflects variability in temperature and moisture availability. This rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be linked to the stadial-interstadial pattern of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which is responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, larger DO interstadials (e.g. DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the highest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, are identified in eastern Anatolia by AP values not lower and high steppe components not more abundant than during DO stadials. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record over the last glacial in the Near East, which documents an initial immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

Microcharcoal concentration and elongation, and age model of sediment core MD96-2098

Although grassland and savanna occupy only a quarter of the world's vegetation, burning in these ecosystems accounts for roughly half the global carbon emissions from fire. However, the processes that govern changes in grassland burning are poorly understood, particularly on time scales beyond satellite records. We analyzed microcharcoal, sediments, and geochemistry in a high-resolution marine sediment core off Namibia to identify the processes that have controlled biomass burning in southern African grassland ecosystems under large, multimillennial-scale climate changes. Six fire cycles occurred during the past 170,000 y in southern Africa that correspond both in timing and magnitude to the precessional forcing of north-south shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Contrary to the conventional expectation that fire increases with higher temperatures and increased drought, we found that wetter and cooler climates cause increased burning in the study region, owing to a shift in rainfall amount and seasonality (and thus vegetation flammability). We also show that charcoal morphology (i.e., the particle's length-to-width ratio) can be used to reconstruct changes in fire activity as well as biome shifts over time. Our results provide essential context for understanding current and future grassland-fire dynamics and their associated carbon emissions.

Dinámica vegetal desde el tardiglaciar en la cuenca del Duero: interacciones con clima, fuego e impacto humano

La cuenca del Duero constituye un vasto territorio ibérico cuyo paisaje se encuentra actualmente muy alterado por la mano del hombre y es prácticamente imposible localizar alguna manifestación de su cubierta vegetal natural. Aunque la historia de la vegetación en los sectores central y oriental es relativamente bien conocida, en su mitad occidental los registros paleoecológicos estudiados hasta la fecha son prácticamente inexistentes. Esto hace que se desconozca la respuesta de la vegetación a las diferentes oscilaciones climáticas que se han producido desde el Último Máximo Glaciar, cuál fue el impacto de las diferentes culturas sobre el medio, cuándo se produjo una alteración profunda de la vegetación natural y cuál ha sido la historia de los incendios. Este último aspecto, el papel e importancia de los incendios, reviste un especial interés en la península Ibérica dada su situación geográfica y climática dentro de la cuenca Mediterránea, donde el fuego es un factor ecológico de primer nivel. Las distintas técnicas paleoecológicas son las más adecuadas para abordar todas estas preguntas. De este modo, los avatares de la vegetación a través del tiempo se han reconstruido mediante el análisis polínico y de macrofósiles, el impacto humano se ha trazado utilizando indicadores polínicos ligados a actividades antrópicas y esporas de hongos coprófilos, estudiándose los incendios a partir del registro de partículas microscópicas de carbón. La alta resolución temporal y taxonómica alcanzada en estos análisis, así como la amplia superficie abarcada con los yacimientos estudiados, hacen que la información obtenida sea altamente detallada y complete el conocimiento que se tiene sobre la cuenca del Duero. El Tardiglaciar se registra por primera vez en la Meseta Norte Ibérica en la secuencia de Ayoó de Vidriales, donde una vegetación esteparia prácticamente desarbolada domina durante los periodos fríos. Durante el interestadial Bølling/Allerød la expansión forestal (pinos, abedules) fue muy leve y tardía y fue interrumpida bruscamente por el Dryas Reciente. Al final del Dryas Reciente o al inicio del Holoceno se produjo una acusada y rápida expansión de los bosques. Esta dinámica sugiere que no hubo refugios glaciares importantes en esta zona de la Meseta durante el “Mystery Interval”, aparentemente el periodo más frío y seco. Los incendios fueron muy escasos, aumentando de forma muy brusca al inicio del Holoceno por el aumento de biomasa y las condiciones relativamente cálidas y secas. A partir de los registros de Ayoó y El Maíllo se consolida la importancia del gradiente oceanicidad-continentalidad en el Sistema Central y la Meseta Norte, que se manifiesta principalmente en la dominancia más prolongada de los pinares hacia el interior. Además, otra de las principales contribuciones de la presente tesis es proporcionar evidencia sobre la sucesión de distintos tipos de bosques en el noroeste de la Meseta, precisando el marco temporal en el que suceden. Así, se ha constatado que hubo un máximo desarrollo del bosque caducifolio durante el Holoceno medio en Ayoó de Vidriales y una baja incidencia del fuego que sugieren que el clima fue más húmedo que en el Holoceno inicial. El estudio de macrofósiles leñosos ha permitido detectar procesos que con el análisis polínico habrían pasado desapercibidos, como la persistencia hasta el Holoceno final de Pinus sylvestris en la sierra del Teleno y la sustitución de P. sylvestris por P. pinaster en la sierra de Francia durante el Holoceno inicial. También el estudio de los carbones procedentes de los arenales de Tierra de Pinares han proporcionado la prueba definitiva de la naturalidad de los pinares de P. pinaster. El impacto humano se detecta temprano en las secuencias del oeste de la cuenca del Duero, durante el Neolítico, aunque ha sido mucho más acusado desde la Edad del Hierro (ca 2700-2500 años cal BP). Para la detección del impacto humano temprano ha sido clave el análisis de esporas de hongos coprófilos, cuyo análisis fue incorporado en la secuencia de Ayoó de Vidriales. Una de sus principales consecuencias fue el establecimiento de comunidades de matorral (brezales, piornales) sobre amplias extensiones del occidente de la cuenca del Duero, vinculado al recrudecimiento de los regímenes de incendios. A pesar de que los incendios han sido ecológicamente importantes desde el inicio del Holoceno, los cambios introducidos por el hombre en sus regímenes sobrepasaron la resiliencia de los bosques originales, lo cual condujo a su sustitución sostenida por matorrales. ABSTRACT The Duero Basin constitutes a vast Iberian territory which is currently strongly disturbed due to human activities, so it is very difficult to find any remnant of the natural vegetation. Vegetation history for the eastern and western sectors of the Basin is relatively well-known but, in contrast, there is an almost complete lack of palaeoecological record in the western area. Consequently, there exists a profound ignorance about vegetation responses to the climatic oscillations occurred since the Last Glacial Maximum, the environmental impact of the different cultures, when a severe disturbance of the natural vegetation took place and fire history. The last question, the role and importance of fire, has a special interest in the Iberian Peninsula due to its geographic and climatic framework, the Mediterranean Basin, where fire is a major ecological factor. The diverse palaeoecological techmiques are the most suitable tools to address all these questions. Thus, vegetation shifts through time have been reconstructed using pollen and macrofossil analyses, human impact has been tracked by means of anthropogenic pollen indicators and dung fungal spores, while fire history has been studied from the quantification of microscopic charcoal particles. The high taxonomic and time resolution attained along with the extensive surface covered by the studied sites provide detailed information very useful to complete the knowledge on landscape dynamics in the Duero Basin. The Lateglacial is recorded for the first time in the Northern Iberian Plateau in the sequence from Ayoó de Vidriales, showing that almost treeless steppic vegetation dominated during the cold periods. Tree expansion (pines, birches) was late and slight during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial and was sharply interrupted by the Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal. By the end of the YD or the onset of the Holocene, a rapid forest expansion occurred. This forest dynamics suggests an absence of important glacial refugia for trees in this area of the Plateau during the Mystery Interval, apparently the coldest and driest period. Fires were fairly rare, increasing abruptly at the beginning of the Holocene due to the relatively warm and dry climate and the accumulation of biomass. The records from Ayoó and El Maíllo reinforce the role of the oceanicity-continentality gradient in the vegetation history of the Iberian Central Range and the Iberian Northern Plateau, reflected mainly in the longer dominance of pine forests towards inland areas. Further, another important contribution of this PhD Thesis is providing evidence on the succession of different forest types in the northestern fringe of the Plateau, specifying the chronological framework. A maximum of deciduous forest development and low fire activity have been detected in Ayoó de Vidriales during the mid-Holocene, suggesting that climate was wetter than in the early Holocene. The study of woody macrofossils has allowed detecting processes which would have remained unnoticed using pollen analysis alone, such as the persistence of Pinus sylvestris until the late Holocene in the Teleno Mountains and the early Holocene replacement of P. sylvestris with P. pinaster in the sierra de Francia range. The study of macroscopic charcoal fragments from palaeosols of the Tierra de Pinares has also provided the definitive proof of naturalness for the P. pinaster stands gorwing over this area at present. Early human impact, during the Neolithic, has been detected in the sequences from the western sector of the Duero Basin, although human disturbance has been more severe from the Iron Age onwards (ca 2700-2500 cal yr BP). The analysis of coprophilous fungi incorporated in the sequence of Ayoó de Vidriales has played a key role in recognizing that early human impact. One of the main consequences of human disturbance was the establishment of shrubland communities (heaths, brooms) over huge areas of the western Duero Basin, linked to severe and/or frequent fires. Despite fires has been ecologically important since the onset of the Holocene, human-induced changes in fire regimes have exceeded the resilience of original forests leading to a sustained replacement with shrublands.

Ensemble Stream Model for Data-Cleaning in Sensor Networks

Ensemble Stream Modeling and Data-cleaning are sensor information processing systems have different training and testing methods by which their goals are cross-validated. This research examines a mechanism, which seeks to extract novel patterns by generating ensembles from data. The main goal of label-less stream processing is to process the sensed events to eliminate the noises that are uncorrelated, and choose the most likely model without over fitting thus obtaining higher model confidence. Higher quality streams can be realized by combining many short streams into an ensemble which has the desired quality. The framework for the investigation is an existing data mining tool. First, to accommodate feature extraction such as a bush or natural forest-fire event we make an assumption of the burnt area (BA*), sensed ground truth as our target variable obtained from logs. Even though this is an obvious model choice the results are disappointing. The reasons for this are two: One, the histogram of fire activity is highly skewed. Two, the measured sensor parameters are highly correlated. Since using non descriptive features does not yield good results, we resort to temporal features. By doing so we carefully eliminate the averaging effects; the resulting histogram is more satisfactory and conceptual knowledge is learned from sensor streams. Second is the process of feature induction by cross-validating attributes with single or multi-target variables to minimize training error. We use F-measure score, which combines precision and accuracy to determine the false alarm rate of fire events. The multi-target data-cleaning trees use information purity of the target leaf-nodes to learn higher order features. A sensitive variance measure such as ƒ-test is performed during each node's split to select the best attribute. Ensemble stream model approach proved to improve when using complicated features with a simpler tree classifier. The ensemble framework for data-cleaning and the enhancements to quantify quality of fitness (30% spatial, 10% temporal, and 90% mobility reduction) of sensor led to the formation of streams for sensor-enabled applications. Which further motivates the novelty of stream quality labeling and its importance in solving vast amounts of real-time mobile streams generated today.

Ensemble Stream Model for Data-Cleaning in Sensor Networks

Ensemble Stream Modeling and Data-cleaning are sensor information processing systems have different training and testing methods by which their goals are cross-validated. This research examines a mechanism, which seeks to extract novel patterns by generating ensembles from data. The main goal of label-less stream processing is to process the sensed events to eliminate the noises that are uncorrelated, and choose the most likely model without over fitting thus obtaining higher model confidence. Higher quality streams can be realized by combining many short streams into an ensemble which has the desired quality. The framework for the investigation is an existing data mining tool. First, to accommodate feature extraction such as a bush or natural forest-fire event we make an assumption of the burnt area (BA*), sensed ground truth as our target variable obtained from logs. Even though this is an obvious model choice the results are disappointing. The reasons for this are two: One, the histogram of fire activity is highly skewed. Two, the measured sensor parameters are highly correlated. Since using non descriptive features does not yield good results, we resort to temporal features. By doing so we carefully eliminate the averaging effects; the resulting histogram is more satisfactory and conceptual knowledge is learned from sensor streams. Second is the process of feature induction by cross-validating attributes with single or multi-target variables to minimize training error. We use F-measure score, which combines precision and accuracy to determine the false alarm rate of fire events. The multi-target data-cleaning trees use information purity of the target leaf-nodes to learn higher order features. A sensitive variance measure such as f-test is performed during each node’s split to select the best attribute. Ensemble stream model approach proved to improve when using complicated features with a simpler tree classifier. The ensemble framework for data-cleaning and the enhancements to quantify quality of fitness (30% spatial, 10% temporal, and 90% mobility reduction) of sensor led to the formation of streams for sensor-enabled applications. Which further motivates the novelty of stream quality labeling and its importance in solving vast amounts of real-time mobile streams generated today.