SME resilience to extreme weather events:important initiatives for informing policy making in the area

Enhancing the resilience of local communities to weather extremes has gained significant interest over the years, amidst the increased intensity and frequency of such events. The fact that such weather extremes are forecast to further increase in number and severity in future has added extra weight to the importance of the issue. As a local community consists of a number of community groups such as households, businesses and policy makers, the actions of different community groups in combination will determine the resilience of the community as a whole. An important role has to be played by Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs); which is an integral segment of a local community in the UK, in this regard. While it is recognised that they are vital to the economy of a country and determines the prosperity of communities, they are increasingly vulnerable to effects of extreme weather. This paper discusses some of the exploratory studies conducted in the UK on SMEs and their ability to cope with extreme weather events, specifically flooding. Although a reasonable level of awareness of the risk was observed among the SMEs, this has not always resulted in increased preparedness even if they are located in areas at risk of flooding. The attitude and the motivation to change differed widely between SMEs. The paper presents schemas by which the SMEs can identify their vulnerability better so that they can be populated among a community of SMEs, which can be taken forward to inform policy making in this area. Therefore the main contribution the paper makes to the body of knowledge in the area is a novel way to communicate to SMEs on improving resilience against extreme weather, which will inform some of the policy making initiatives in the UK.

Coping with extreme weather:strategies of construction SMEs

Weather extremes have created a considerable impact on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK during the recent years, especially on SMEs in the construction sector. Evidence in relation to the recent weather extremes have demonstrated that SMEs are some of the worst impacted by the Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) and have confirmed them as a highly vulnerable section of the UK economy to the impact of extreme weather. This is of particular importance to the construction industry, as an overarching majority of construction companies are SMEs who account for the majority of employment and income generation within the industry. Whilst construction has been perceived as a sector significantly vulnerable to the impacts of EWEs, there is scant evidence of how construction SMEs respond to such events and cope with their impact. Based on the evidence emerged from case studies of construction SMEs, current coping strategies of construction SMEs were identified. Some of the strategies identified were focused at organisational level whereas others were focused at project level. Further, some of the strategies were general risk management / business continuity strategies whereas others have been specifically developed to address the risk of EWEs. Accordingly, coping strategies can be broadly categorised based on their focus; i.e. those focused at project or organisational level, and based on the risks that they seek to address; i.e. business / continuity risks in general or EWE risk specifically. By overlapping these two aspects; their focus and risks that they seek to address, four categories of coping strategies can be devised. There are; general risk management strategies focused at business level, general risk management strategies focused at project level, EWE specific strategies focused at business level, and EWE specific strategies focused at project level. It is proposed that for a construction SME to effectively cope with the impact of EWEs and develop their resilience against EWEs a rich mix of these coping strategies are required to suite the particular requirements of the business.

Making the construction industry resilient to extreme weather:lessons from construction in hot weather conditions

The construction industry is susceptible to extreme weather events (EWEs) due to most of its activities being conducted by manual workers outdoors. Although research has been conducted on the effects of EWEs, such as flooding and snowfall, limited research has been conducted on the effects of heatwaves and hot weather conditions. Heatwaves present a somewhat different risk profile to construction, unlike EWEs such as flooding and heavy snowfall that present physical obstacles to work onsite. However, heatwaves have affected the construction industry in the UK, and construction claims have been made due to adverse weather conditions. With heatwaves being expected to occur more frequently in the coming years, the construction industry may suffer unlike any other industry during the summer months. This creates the need to investigate methods that would allow construction activities to progress during hot summer months with minimal effect on construction projects. Hence, the purpose of this paper. Regions such as the Middle East and the UAE in particular flourish with mega projects, although temperatures soar to above 40̊C in the summer months. Lessons could be learnt from such countries and adapted in the UK. Interviews have been conducted with a lead representative of a client, a consultant and a contractor, all of which currently operate on UAE projects. The key findings include one of the preliminary steps taken by international construction companies operating in the UAE. This involves restructuring their entire regional team by employing management staff from countries such as Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and their labour force from the sub-continent such as India and Pakistan. This is not only due to the cheap wage rate but also to the ability to cope and work in such extreme hot weather conditions. The experience of individuals working in the region allows for future planning, where the difference in labour productivity during the extreme hot weather conditions is known, allowing precautionary measures to be put in place.

A conceptual framework for understanding resilience of construction SMEs to extreme weather events

Purpose Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), which form a significant portion in many economies, are some of the most vulnerable to the impact of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). This is of particular importance to the construction industry, as an overarching majority of construction companies are SMEs who account for the majority of employment and income generation within the industry. In the UK, previous research has identified construction SMEs as some of the worst affected by EWEs. Design/methodology/approach Given the recent occurrences of EWEs and predictions suggesting increases in both the intensity and frequency of EWEs in the future, improving the resilience of construction SMEs is vital for achieving a resilient construction industry. A conceptual framework is first developed which is then populated and expanded based on empirical evidence. Positioned within a pragmatic research philosophy, case study research strategy was adopted as the overall research strategy in undertaking this investigation. Findings Based on the findings of two in-depth case studies of construction SMEs, a framework was developed to represent EWE resilience of construction SMEs, where resilience was seen as a collective effect of vulnerability, coping strategies and coping capacities of SMEs, characteristics of the EWE and the wider economic climate. Originality/value The paper provides an original contribution towards the overarching agenda of the resilience of SMEs, and policy making in the area of EWE risk management by presenting a novel conceptual framework depicting the resilience of medium-sized construction companies.

The Welsh Marches: Resilient Farmers? Exploring Farmers' Resilience to Extreme Weather Events in the Recent Past

In the 21st century climate change will cause a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across Europe. Investigating farmers’ resilience to extreme weather events in the past can be used to establish the inherent level of resilience farmers’ will have to respond to comparable events in the future. The Welsh Marches has experienced a range of extreme weather events including: heatwaves, flooding; prolonged rainfall; and heavy snowfall. To identify the resilience of farmers in the Marches farmers’ apparent vulnerabilities, coping capacity, social capital and adaptive capacity that have been exposed in past events are discussed. Rural isolation is identified as an exacerbating factor of farming vulnerability. Yet, this is also an apparent source of resilience as farmers are found to rely on high social capital to assist each other in emergency and challenging situations during extreme weather events. The paper concludes by indicating that more localised studies are required, situated within unique farming cultures. This will enable a more complete picture of farmers’ resilience across Europe to be established.

Reviews pages: Extreme weather events caused by climate change

Starting from the relationship between urban planning and mobility management, TeMA has gradually expanded the view of the covered topics, always remaining in the groove of rigorous scientific in-depth analysis. During the last two years a particular attention has been paid on the Smart Cities theme and on the different meanings that come with it. The last section of the journal is formed by the Review Pages. They have different aims: to inform on the problems, trends and evolutionary processes; to investigate on the paths by highlighting the advanced relationships among apparently distant disciplinary fields; to explore the interaction’s areas, experiences and potential applications; to underline interactions, disciplinary developments but also, if present, defeats and setbacks. Inside the journal the Review Pages have the task of stimulating as much as possible the circulation of ideas and the discovery of new points of view. For this reason the section is founded on a series of basic’s references, required for the identification of new and more advanced interactions. These references are the research, the planning acts, the actions and the applications, analysed and investigated both for their ability to give a systematic response to questions concerning the urban and territorial planning, and for their attention to aspects such as the environmental sustainability and the innovation in the practices. For this purpose the Review Pages are formed by five sections (Web Resources; Books; Laws; Urban Practices; News and Events), each of which examines a specific aspect of the broader information storage of interest for TeMA.

INDOOR MOLD After a Severe Weather Event

Many South Carolina residents are concerned about indoor mold after severe weather events. DHEC has compiled this informational handout with recommendations to guide decisions regarding mold in homes and workplaces.

Automatische objektive Identifikation und Berechnung der Eigenschaften von Rossbywellenzügen

In dieser Arbeit wird eine Methode entwickelt, die Rossbywellenzüge automatisch identifiziert und und deren Eigenschaften quantifiziert. Mit dieser Methode wird der Wellenzug als eine Einheit in Raum und Zeit interpretiert. Einheit im Raum heißt, dass nicht die einzelnen Tröge und Rücken eines Wellenzugs betrachtet werden, sondern deren Einhüllende. Einheit in der Zeit bedeutet, dass der Wellenzug nicht nur zu einem Zeitpunkt betrachtet wird, sondern über seine gesamte Lebensdauer hinweg. Um den Wellenzug als räumliche und zeitliche Einheit zu erhalten, werden die Einhüllenden der Wellenzüge in Längengrad-Zeit Diagrammen, sogenannten Hovmöllerdiagrammen, betrachtet. Dort werden zusammenhängende Regionen als Objekte, die jeweils einen Wellenzug repräsentieren, identifiziert. Deren Eigenschaften werden dann automatisch berechnet. Diese Eigenschaften können nun direkt dem zugrunde liegenden Rossbywellenzug zugeordnet werden.rnDie neue Methode wird in zwei verschiedenen Szenarien angewendet: erstens zur Beurteilung der Vorhersagequalität eines einzelnen Rossbywellenzugs und zweitens für die klimatologische Betrachtung von Rossbywellenzügen im ERA-40 Reanalysedatensatz. Sie wurde weiterhin mit bisher verwendeten Methoden zur Identifikation und Quantifizierung von Rossbywellenzügen verglichen.rnDie Untersuchung der Vorhersagequalität ergab, dass in dem betrachteten Fall die Übereinstimmung der Vorhersage mit der Analyse des Wellenzugs gering war, sofern das Modell initialisiert wurde, bevor der Rossbywellenzug eingesetzt hatte. Im Gegensatz dazu nahm die Vorhersagequalität deutlich zu, wenn der Wellenzug bereits in den Vorhersagedaten enthalten war. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass es in dem vorliegenden Fall problematisch ist, mit dem Modell den Auslösemechanismus korrekt voherzusagen. Für die weitere Untersuchung der Vorhersagequalität wurde eine spezielle Art der Darstellung der Daten verwendet, mit deren Hilfe deutlich wurde, dass das verwendete Modell in der Lage ist, diesen Wellenzug ungefähr sechs Tage im Voraus vorherzusagen. Diese Zeitspanne ist deutlich kürzer als die Lebensdauer des Wellenzugs, die etwa 10 Tage beträgt.rnIm Rahmen der klimatologischen Studie ergab sich eine positive Korrelation zwischen der Lebensdauer eines Rossbywellenzugs und des Bereichs den dieser Wellenzug während seiner gesamten Existenz in zonaler Richtung überstreicht. Für Wellenzüge mit einer kurzen Lebensdauer ergab sich eine ebenfalls positive Korrelation zwischen der mittleren Amplitude und der Dauer des Wellenzugs. Für eine längere Lebensdauer geht diese Korrelation aber in eine Sättigung über und die mittlere Amplitude steigt nicht mehr weiter an. Als eine mögliche Erklärung für dieses Verhalten wird angeführt, dass eine gewisse Stärke der Amplitude benötigt wird um stromabwärtige Entwicklung zu erhalten aber zu große Amplituden im Allgemeinen zum Brechen der Welle führen. Das Brechen leitet den letzten Abschnitt im Lebenszyklus eines Rossbywellenzuges ein, welcher im Anschluss meist zerfällt. Ein weiteres Ergebnis der klimatologischen Untersuchung ist das Auffinden bevorzugter Regionen der Entstehung und des Abklingens von Rossbywellenzügen. Diese Regionen unterscheiden sich erheblich für Rossbywellenzüge unterschiedlicher minimaler Lebensdauer. Langlebige Rossbywellenzüge entstehen demnach hauptsächlich über Ostasien und dem Westpazifik und vergehen dann über Europa.rnSchließlich wurde die entwickelte Methode in einen systematischen Vergleich anderer Methoden zur Identifikation und Quantifizierung von Rossbywellenzügen eingereiht. Die betrachteten Methoden beinhalten verschiedene Trog-und-Rücken Hovmöllerdiagramme des Meridionalwindes, Methoden die Rossbywellenzüge als eine Einheit identifizieren und Methoden die den Beitrag verschiedener physikalischer Aspekte zu der Entwicklung von Rossbywellenenzügen quantifizieren. Der Vergleich macht deutlich, dass jede Methode ihre individuellen Stärken und Schwächen hat. Dies bedeutet insbesondere, dass die Eignung der Methode von dem Stadium des Lebenszyklus, in dem sich der Rossbywellenzug befindet und dem Fokus, den man bei der Betrachtung hat, abhängt. Ideal ist eine Kombination mehrerer Methoden, da dies ein vollständigeres Bild eines Rossbywellenzuges ergibt als einzelne Methoden es zu liefern vermögen. Obwohl alle Methoden für die Anwendungen, für die sie jeweils konzipiert wurden, geeignet sind, ergeben sich bei der Diagnose der Rossbywellenzüge beträchtliche Unterschiede. Letztendlich stellt sich heraus, dass sogar die Defintion eines Rossbywellenzugs bis zu einem gewissen Grad von der zu seiner Identifizierung verwendeten Methode abhängt.

Experimental icing affects growth, mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Acknowledgments This study was funded by the Research Council of Norway (POLARPROG grant 216051; SFF-III grant 223257/ F50) and Svalbard Environmental Protection Fund (SMF grant 13/74). We thank Mathilde Le Moullec for helping with the fieldwork and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for access to weather data.

A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved.

Associations between extreme precipitation and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in urban and rural areas in Hefei, China

Background Understanding the relationship between extreme weather events and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is important in the context of climate change. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, and further, to explore whether the association varied across urban and rural areas. Methods Daily data on HFMD counts among children aged 0–14 years from 2010 January 1st to 2012 December 31st were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation during the same period were supplied by Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. We used a Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the association between extreme precipitation (≥ 90th precipitation) and childhood HFMD, controlling for mean temperature, humidity, day of week, and long-term trend. Results There was a statistically significant association between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD. The effect of extreme precipitation on childhood HFMD was the greatest at six days lag, with a 5.12% (95% confident interval: 2.7–7.57%) increase of childhood HFMD for an extreme precipitation event versus no precipitation. Notably, urban children and children aged 0–4 years were particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme precipitation. Conclusions Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation may increase the incidence of childhood HFMD in Hefei, highlighting the importance of protecting children from forthcoming extreme precipitation, particularly for those who are young and from urban areas.

Attribution of climate extreme events

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Plant regeneration directs changes in grassland composition after extreme drought: a 13-year study in southern Switzerland

1. The cover of plant species was recorded annually from 1988 to 2000 in nine spatially replicated plots in a species-rich, semi-natural meadow at Negrentino (southern Alps). This period showed large climatic variation and included the centennial maximum and minimum frequency of days with ≥ 10 mm of rain. 2. Changes in species composition were compared between three 4-year intervals characterized by increasingly dry weather (1988–91), a preceding extreme drought (1992–95), and increasingly wet weather (1997–2000). Redundancy analysis and anova with repeated spatial replicates were used to find trends in vegetation data across time. 3. Recruitment capacity, the potential for fast clonal growth and seasonal expansion rate were determined for abundant taxa and tested in general linear models (GLM) as predictors for rates of change in relative cover of species across the climatically defined 4-year intervals. 4. Relative cover of the major growth forms present, graminoids and forbs, changed more in the period following extreme drought than at other times. Recruitment capacity was the only predictor of species’ rates of change. 5. Following perturbation, re-colonization was the primary driver of vegetation dynamics. The dominant grasses, which lacked high recruitment from seed, therefore decreased in relative abundance. This effect persisted until the end of the study and may represent a lasting response to an extreme climatic event.