Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Corneal confocal microscopy : a novel means to detect nerve fibre damage in idiopathic small fibre neuropathy

Patients with idiopathic small fibre neuropathy (ISFN) have been shown to have significant intraepidermal nerve fibre loss and an increased prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). It has been suggested that the dysglycemia of IGT and additional metabolic risk factors may contribute to small nerve fibre damage in these patients. Twenty-five patients with ISFN and 12 aged-matched control subjects underwent a detailed evaluation of neuropathic symptoms, neurological deficits (Neuropathy deficit score (NDS); Nerve Conduction Studies (NCS); Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST) and Corneal Confocal Microscopy (CCM)) to quantify small nerve fibre pathology. Eight (32%) patients had IGT. Whilst all patients with ISFN had significant neuropathic symptoms, NDS, NCS and QST except for warm thresholds were normal. Corneal sensitivity was reduced and CCM demonstrated a significant reduction in corneal nerve fibre density (NFD) (Pb0.0001), nerve branch density (NBD) (Pb0.0001), nerve fibre length (NFL) (Pb0.0001) and an increase in nerve fibre tortuosity (NFT) (Pb0.0001). However these parameters did not differ between ISFN patients with and without IGT, nor did they correlate with BMI, lipids and blood pressure. Corneal confocal microscopy provides a sensitive non-invasive means to detect small nerve fibre damage in patients with ISFN and metabolic abnormalities do not relate to nerve damage.

Use of expert panels in highway safety: A critique

Expert panels have been used extensively in the development of the "Highway Safety Manual" to extract research information from highway safety experts. While the panels have been used to recommend agendas for new and continuing research, their primary role has been to develop accident modification factors—quantitative relationships between highway safety and various highway safety treatments. Because the expert panels derive quantitative information in a “qualitative” environment and because their findings can have significant impacts on highway safety investment decisions, the expert panel process should be described and critiqued. This paper is the first known written description and critique of the expert panel process and is intended to serve professionals wishing to conduct such panels.

Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Peak power demand reduction under moving block signalling using an expert system

The concept of moving block signallings (MBS) has been adopted in a few mass transit railway systems. When a dense queue of trains begins to move from a complete stop, the trains can re-start in very close succession under MBS. The feeding substations nearby are likely to be overloaded and the service will inevitably be disturbed unless substations of higher power rating are used. By introducing starting time delays among the trains or limiting the trains’ acceleration rate to a certain extent, the peak energy demand can be contained. However, delay is introduced and quality of service is degraded. An expert system approach is presented to provide a supervisory tool for the operators. As the knowledge base is vital for the quality of decisions to be made, the study focuses on its formulation with a balance between delay and peak power demand.

Restarting trains under moving block signalling : an expert system approach

A high peak power demand at substations will result under Moving Block Signalling (MBS) when a dense queue of trains begins to start from a complete stop at the same time in an electrified railway system. This may cause the power supply interruption and in turn affect the train service substantially. In a recent study, measures of Starting Time Delay (STD) and Acceleration Rate Limit (ARL) are the possible approaches to reduce the peak power demand on the supply system under MBS. Nevertheless, there is no well-defined relationship between the two measures and peak power demand reduction (PDR). In order to attain a lower peak demand at substations on different traffic conditions and system requirements, an expert system is one of the possible approaches to procure the appropriate use of peak demand reduction measures. The main objective of this paper is to study the effect of the train re-starting strategies on the power demand at substations and the time delay suffered by the trains with the aid of computer simulation. An expert system is a useful tool to select various adoptions of STD and ARL under different operational conditions and system requirements.

Attractiveness of venture idea amongst expert entrepreneurs : a conjoint analysis

Principal Topic Venture ideas are at the heart of entrepreneurship (Davidsson, 2004). However, we are yet to learn what factors drive entrepreneurs’ perceptions of the attractiveness of venture ideas, and what the relative importance of these factors are for their decision to pursue an idea. The expected financial gain is one factor that will obviously influence the perceived attractiveness of a venture idea (Shepherd & DeTienne, 2005). In addition, the degree of novelty of venture ideas along one or more dimensions such as new products/services, new method of production, enter into new markets/customer and new method of promotion may affect their attractiveness (Schumpeter, 1934). Further, according to the notion of an individual-opportunity nexus venture ideas are closely associated with certain individual characteristics (relatedness). Shane (2000) empirically identified that individual’s prior knowledge is closely associated with the recognition of venture ideas. Sarasvathy’s (2001; 2008) Effectuation theory proposes a high degree of relatedness between venture ideas and the resource position of the individual. This study examines how entrepreneurs weigh considerations of different forms of novelty and relatedness as well as potential financial gain in assessing the attractiveness of venture ideas. Method I use conjoint analysis to determine how expert entrepreneurs develop preferences for venture ideas which involved with different degrees of novelty, relatedness and potential gain. The conjoint analysis estimates respondents’ preferences in terms of utilities (or part-worth) for each level of novelty, relatedness and potential gain of venture ideas. A sample of 32 expert entrepreneurs who were awarded young entrepreneurship awards were selected for the study. Each respondent was interviewed providing with 32 scenarios which explicate different combinations of possible profiles open them into consideration. Results and Implications Results indicate that while the respondents do not prefer mere imitation they receive higher utility for low to medium degree of newness suggesting that high degrees of newness are fraught with greater risk and/or greater resource needs. Respondents pay considerable weight on alignment with the knowledge and skills they already posses in choosing particular venture idea. The initial resource position of entrepreneurs is not equally important. Even though expected potential financial gain gives substantial utility, result indicate that it is not a dominant factor for the attractiveness of venture idea.

Confocal microscopy of the bulbar conjunctiva in contact lens wear

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the capabilities of laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) for undertaking qualitative and quantitative investigations of the response of the bulbar conjunctiva to contact lens wear. Methods: LSCM was used to observe and measure morphological characteristics of the bulbar conjunctiva of 11 asymptomatic soft contact lens wearers and 11 healthy volunteer subjects (controls). Results: The appearance of the bulbar conjunctiva is consistent with known histology of this tissue based on light and electron microscopy. The thickness of the bulbar conjunctival epithelium of lens wearers (30.9 ± 1.1 μm) was less than that of controls (32.9 ± 1.1 μm) (P < 0.0001). Superficial and basal bulbar conjunctival epithelial cell densities in contact lens wearers were 91% and 79% higher, respectively, than that in controls (P < 0.0001). No difference was observed in goblet and Langerhans cell density between lens wearers and controls. Conjunctival microcysts were observed in greater numbers, and were larger in size, in lens wearers compared with controls. Conclusions: The effects of contact lens wear on the human bulbar conjunctiva can be investigated effectively at a cellular level using LSCM. The observations in this study suggest that contact lens wear can induce changes in the bulbar conjunctiva such as epithelial thinning and accelerated formation and enlargement of microcysts, increased epithelial cell density, but has no impact on goblet or Langerhans cell density.

Corneal confocal microscopy : a novel noninvasive test to diagnose and stratify the severity of human diabetic neuropathy

OBJECTIVE: The accurate quantification of human diabetic neuropathy is important to define at-risk patients, anticipate deterioration, and assess new therapies. ---------- RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 101 diabetic patients and 17 age-matched control subjects underwent neurological evaluation, neurophysiology tests, quantitative sensory testing, and evaluation of corneal sensation and corneal nerve morphology using corneal confocal microscopy (CCM). ---------- RESULTS: Corneal sensation decreased significantly (P = 0.0001) with increasing neuropathic severity and correlated with the neuropathy disability score (NDS) (r = 0.441, P < 0.0001). Corneal nerve fiber density (NFD) (P < 0.0001), nerve fiber length (NFL), (P < 0.0001), and nerve branch density (NBD) (P < 0.0001) decreased significantly with increasing neuropathic severity and correlated with NDS (NFD r = −0.475, P < 0.0001; NBD r = −0.511, P < 0.0001; and NFL r = −0.581, P < 0.0001). NBD and NFL demonstrated a significant and progressive reduction with worsening heat pain thresholds (P = 0.01). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for the diagnosis of neuropathy (NDS >3) defined an NFD of <27.8/mm2 with a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI 0.68–0.92) and specificity of 0.52 (0.40–0.64) and for detecting patients at risk of foot ulceration (NDS >6) defined a NFD cutoff of <20.8/mm2 with a sensitivity of 0.71 (0.42–0.92) and specificity of 0.64 (0.54–0.74). ---------- CONCLUSIONS: CCM is a noninvasive clinical technique that may be used to detect early nerve damage and stratify diabetic patients with increasing neuropathic severity. Established diabetic neuropathy leads to pain and foot ulceration. Detecting neuropathy early may allow intervention with treatments to slow or reverse this condition (1). Recent studies suggested that small unmyelinated C-fibers are damaged early in diabetic neuropathy (2–4) but can only be detected using invasive procedures such as sural nerve biopsy (4,5) or skin-punch biopsy (6–8). Our studies have shown that corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) can identify early small nerve fiber damage and accurately quantify the severity of diabetic neuropathy (9–11). We have also shown that CCM relates to intraepidermal nerve fiber loss (12) and a reduction in corneal sensitivity (13) and detects early nerve fiber regeneration after pancreas transplantation (14). Recently we have also shown that CCM detects nerve fiber damage in patients with Fabry disease (15) and idiopathic small fiber neuropathy (16) when results of electrophysiology tests and quantitative sensory testing (QST) are normal. In this study we assessed corneal sensitivity and corneal nerve morphology using CCM in diabetic patients stratified for the severity of diabetic neuropathy using neurological evaluation, electrophysiology tests, and QST. This enabled us to compare CCM and corneal esthesiometry with established tests of diabetic neuropathy and define their sensitivity and specificity to detect diabetic patients with early neuropathy and those at risk of foot ulceration.

Expertise in software design : novice and expert models

This paper investigates how software designers use their knowledge during the design process. The research is based on the analysis of the observational and verbal data from three software design teams generated during the conceptual stage of the design process. The knowledge captured from the analysis of the mapped design team data is utilized to generate descriptive models of novice and expert designers. These models contribute to a better understanding of the connections between, and integration of, designer variables, and to a better understanding of software design expertise and its development. The models are transferable to other domains.